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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IBD: Small Cap Market Tilt: More Tailwind For Hot AMG Stock Mutual Fund? (MECIX)
    FYI: Already performing well this year thanks to leading stocks like PGT Innovations (PGTI), Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL), MCBC Holdings (MCFT) and Medifast (MED) — which are up 10% for PGT to 70% for Medifast — small-cap growth $121.8 million AMG Managers Cadence Emerging Companies Fund's (MECIX) managers see the market environment tilting more their way — more in favor of small-cap stocks.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/small-cap-market-tilt-tailwind-amg-stock-mutual-fund/
    M* Snapshot MECIX:
    http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/MECIX/quote.html
    Lipper Snapshot MECIX:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/mecix
    MECIX Is Unranked In The (SCG) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/small-growth/amg-managers-cadence-emerging-coms-fd/mecix
  • VIX, ya think U.S. did ok today?, look at some other equity performers...let the game continue !
    Morning @hank
    Perhaps I should forgo a late night post, when I awaken at 5am on the same day.
    --- Gov't. issue bonds/bills and the spread among the yields. Yes, the 2 and 10 year yield is narrowing again, as well as the 10 and 30 year yield spread which closed yesterday at 15 basis points. This spread continues to slowly narrow from the past year; even though both yields are significantly higher than one year ago.
    ---Bonds corporate, LQD found about a +.50%, which is a strong positive reversal of the trend for the year so far. May be nothing more than a technical trade by the big kids; but I do watch these bonds in particular, as so many ($'s) have been issued over the past years to finance take over, acquisitions, etc.
    ---VIX = Technically speaking, the CBOE Volatility Index does not measure the same kind of volatility as most other indicators. Volatility is the level of price fluctuations that can be observed by looking at past data. Instead, the VIX looks at expectations of future volatility, also known as implied volatility. Times of greater uncertainty (more expected future volatility) result in higher VIX values, while less anxious times correspond with lower values. (From Investopedia)
    >>>I watch VIX strictly for the above description of the sentiment of those involved in trading this area. I don't trade this, but mingle the indicator with other market factors.
    You noted "new cars sales down"..... Reportedly, 1/3 of new car sales for 2017 were leases (counted as a new car sale). To this, I saw a tv crawl on Bloomberg that used car prices are down. Also, that the ads I see for new car leases continue to reflect lower monthly lease prices, and in many cases; there is no increase in "up front" money, or no "up front" money at all required by the customer. So, this market finds the production of vehicle units to continue; and one wonders how much pricing is being squeezed all the way down the distribution chain. A large "boatload" of vehicles continuing to come off of a 2 year lease and flooding the secondary markets with decent "used" vehicles, eh?
    'Course, many folks enjoy the thought of driving a $60K SUV for "x" dollars a month; while in their real life, they could not afford such a vehicle with a traditional auto loan, even with the very low interest loan rate for those with a good credit rating. Also, auto companies pumping their ads that "they" are able to finance those with crap credit ratings for a new vehicle. The sub-prime auto loan area is probably more smelly than folks know or that is reported. NOT a pretty picture for this segment of the economy, IMHO.
    Per Sonny and Cher..........."and the beat goes on".
    NOTE for today. Trump's "plan" announce at 2pm today about his plan to reduce drug pricing. No scare reflected in yesterday's healthcare sector gains. Will discover today if pharma or other narrow parts of healthcare gets some type of negative price whack.
    I've run my mouth enough.
    Take care and be assured, that winter is almost gone in Michigan, yes?
    Catch
  • Target date Funds & Buffett
    @Maurice, not if she inherits these shares upon death that might reside in his taxable account...stepped up basis would avoid his capital gains (tax consequences). This is where death and (capital gains) taxes die together. We should all be so lucky.
    What is 'Step-Up In Basis'
    Step-up in basis is the readjustment of the value of an appreciated asset for tax purposes upon inheritance, determined to be the higher market value of the asset at the time of inheritance. When an asset is passed on to a beneficiary, its value is typically more than what it was when the original owner acquired it. The asset receives a step-up in basis so that the beneficiary's capital gains tax is minimized.
    https://investopedia.com/terms/s/stepupinbasis.asp
  • A Bear Market Would Be A Death Knell For Active Funds
    I agree in recent years I have been stuck with large capital gain distributions in my active taxable funds due to large capital gains that have put me into a higher tax bracket I can't sell them as that would be jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
  • A Bear Market Would Be A Death Knell For Active Funds
    FYI: A downturn would give investors sitting on big tax gains an excuse to get out, possibly taking some $1 trillion with them.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/a-bear-market-would-be-a-death-knell-for-active-funds
  • David Snowball's May Commentary (5/4 update)
    With Ed just back and recovered from his European vacation, we'll publish an update soon. That is, we'll add Ed's essay - on the need by professionals investors to reinvent themselves to maintain their "edge" in a rapidly evolving ecosystem - to the May offering. It strikes me as a thoughtful piece.
    I regret offering no memorial words for Marty Whitman; he surely deserves them but surely deserves them from people who knew and trusted him. I was afraid I had little more than platitudes to offer.
    The Prospector fund looks interesting. I began following them when Ron Howard, the long-time manager of Price Capital Appreciation - the equity fund that had the longest-ever streak of years without a loss - left to co-found Prospector. They feel like T Rowe in a compact package.
    It's good to start hearing BobC's reflections as he closes a chapter that he'd been writing for 50 years and begins another.
    And I really do appreciate your input on the active share piece. I hope it was worth your time.
    Take care,
    David
  • A not so good three months for mutual funds
    Having cash allows for small buying this year - early Feb (9% down), March and April (5-6% down). Several funds I use have over 10% cash position. Only until recently, TRP Capital Appreciation reduced the cash to high single digit.
    With treasury yielding near 3%, bond funds are struggling this year. Two or more rate hikes this year pose considerable headwind for bond funds. Actively managed funds are doing better than the bond index.
  • "Special Equities"
    Well from what I can find or tell it seems to depend upon who you ask. Royce has this to say about RYSEX "Small-cap value fund (generally market caps up to $3 billion) that looks for conservatively managed companies with transparent accounting that have a viable niche or franchise whose stock can be bought below its economic value."
    Skyline describes SKSEX as a fund which: "Seeks maximum capital appreciation primarily by investing in stocks the subadviser considers to be undervalued."
    Eaton Vance defines their version of 'special equities' in EVSEX as: "The Fund invests primarily in stocks of emerging-growth companies — those expected to achieve long-term earnings growth that exceeds the average of all publicly traded companies in the U.S."
    And First Investors seems to have the most complete description: "The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund invests primarily in common stocks of small-size companies that the fund's adviser believes are undervalued, and generally invests in companies that are experiencing a "special situation" that makes them undervalued relative to their long-term potential. Developments creating special situations may include mergers, spin-offs, litigation resolution, new products, or management changes."
  • Fidelity Simplicity RMD Funds - Allocation Strategy with RMD Age (70.5) in Mind
    If you want to manage your own glide path, and you want to keep it simple and cheap(er), why use hybrid funds of funds rather than the underlying funds?
    Cheaper, because you won't be paying Barclay's second layer of management fees. (Since the thread is about managing RMDs, IRAs are assumed; realizing gains as one adjusts allocations to follow glide path is not a concern.)
    Simpler, because you can just buy whatever percent of each underlying fund that you want. Also, because with just four funds and seven underlying funds (plus cash), it may be theoretically impossible to get the mix that you want (unless you happen to luck out, e.g. if you want exactly AOK's mix, then you can get it by buying just that fund).
    Let's say you don't care about the mix of domestic stocks, the mix of foreign stock, the mix of domestic bonds, and the mix of foreign bonds. You're keeping it simple. You just care about these four percentages. Here's how you could do that with four funds:
    For an allocation of 40/20/35/5 (domestic/foreign/domestic bonds/foreign bonds):
    ITOT (Core Total Market) 40% (0.03% ER)
    IXUS (Core Total Int'l) 20% (0.11% ER)
    IUSB (Core Total US Bond) 35% (0.06% ER)
    IAGG (Core Int'l Bond) 5% (0.09% ER)
    Blended ER = 0.06%, vs. 0.25% for a mix of AO* funds.
    While you'd like to get the same ratios using the AO* funds (which would involve solving four simultaneous linear equations), you discover that no matter which fund(s) you use, you're going to have just as much foreign stock as domestic, even if all you want is 1/3 foreign. These don't let you manage your current asset allocation (let alone a glide path) beyond a basic stock:bond ratio.
    AOA is approximately 41% US stock, 40% foreign stock, 16% US bond,3% foreign bond,
    AOR is approximately 31% US stock, 30% foreign stock, 33% US bond, 6% foreign bond,
    AOM is approximately 21% US stock, 20% foreign stock, 50% US bond, 9% foreign bond,
    AOK is approximately 16% US stock, 15% foreign stock, 58% US bond, 11% foreign bond
  • The Risk for High-Tax States: The Wealthy Could Flee
    FYI: The very rich are different from you and me, F. Scott Fitzgerald famously wrote. But it’s not just because they have more money, as Ernest Hemingway famously retorted. Not only do they also pay a lot more in taxes, the rich also pay a bigger chunk in capital gains.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/The-Risk-for-High-Tax-States--The-Wealthy-Could-Flee.rkycwBdhf.html
  • The Elusive Bond Bear Market May Have Already Peaked
    FYI: Bond bulls have a spring in their step thanks to softer economic data and signals the business cycle is close to peaking.
    Markets are pricing in the end of the U.S. hiking path in 2020, or early 2021, and the start of some degree of monetary easing, potentially capping the selloff pressure in Treasuries
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-elusive-bond-bear-market-may-have-already-peaked-38203.html?print
  • Marty Whitman passes away at 93
    I think you're talking about Amit Wadhwaney, who "retired" in 2014 and then started Moerus Capital Management in 2015. They have one fund, Moerus Worldwide Value, that hasn't done particularly well and hasn't gathered more than $55 MM in assets in its first few years but it does get a M* rating of Bronze.
  • N.Y. Attorney General Forces Vanguard, BlackRock, Others To Disclose Active Share
    "...The attorney general’s offices surveyed 14 major U.S. mutual fund firms and found that 13 did not disclose the active share metric to investors, even though all of them disclosed it to some extent to institutional investors.
    The lack of equal access “is an information gap that hinders retail investors’ ability to fully analyze the potential value proposition of an actively managed equity fund,” the attorney general’s office said in a report, released Thursday....The mutual fund firms that have agreed to publish active share information under the agreement with New York are: AllianceBernstein LP; BlackRock Inc.; The Dreyfus Corp.; The Capital Group Companies Inc. (American Funds); Columbia Management Investment Advisors LLC; Eaton Vance Management; Goldman Sachs Asset Management L.P.; JP Morgan Chase & Co.; OppenheimerFunds Inc.; Nuveen LLC; T. Rowe Price Associates Inc.; USAA Asset Management Co.; and The Vanguard Group Inc." Most of the firms that have agreed to post the information beginning in spring 2018, the attorney general’s office said.https://fa-mag.com/news/n-y--attorney-general-forces-fund-groups-to-disclose-active-share-38020.html?section=121
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    You're right, @Old_Skeet. One of the trusts I am lucky enough to be beneficiary to is 100 years old (will be terminating, FINALLY, in 2 years). A couple of the stocks invested in then (or in the last 50 years) are still around. Thousands percentages gains in those (and a couple of them lost majority of the gains due to being held under any or all circumstances by USB). But it's NOT a step-up, so the cap gains rate will be enormous. Still, I certainly can't complain about the regular income and the remaining amount.
    So, investing JUST A LITTLE as early as possible can really add up over a few decades.
    Cathy
    P.S. You're also right about so-called "professionals" who have little, if almost no, knowledge of mutual funds, or even basic investment knowledge. I've found that out way too often with TDA reps when I've called or emailed.
  • Almost Zero: Why You’re Still Not Making Much On Your Bank Account
    @OJ
    "why are you trusting government dollars?"
    If the U.S. government collapses, everything collapses. The entirety of capital markets is built upon the so-called "risk-free rate" from T-Bills to the riskiest emerging market stocks. The only thing that would do well in such a scenario is perhaps gold.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    @CathyG, Not offended at all as most of us often see things in different colors. I'm probally one of the older investors on the board. I started investing back in the 60"s while in my teens. And, through the years I have built a sizeable portfolio. Back when I started investing one did not have the choices they have today and there were not a lot of no load fund shops around that were easy to invest in; and, for the ones that were you had to invest directly with the fund company. I was young and it was easy for me to stop by a neighborhood investment shop and deposit a few dollars into my account from time-to-time. My first two funds were Franklin Income and Income Fund of America. Both of these funds provided me exposure to the capital markets (cash, bonds & stocks). Plus, I could see the income that they gerenated as their size built. Pop's said income will never go out of style. He was right.
    My great grandfather was an investor, my grand parents were inestors, my parents were investors, I'm an investor and so is my son. With this most of the commissions paid were many, many years ago and over time many of these mutual fund investments migtrated from one generation to another through transfers.
    While some bark about sales loads they are missing an important message. Start early in investing putting a few dollars back while you'r young and continue to do this letting the power of compounding work. I'm totally surprised as to what my portfolio has become.
    I have no regrets that I started investing though commission based funds; and, even today, for me, they are still my low cost option over broker accounts that charge wrap fees, etc. And, I understand why they want me to convert as they will make more. I ask them (from time-to-time) when the subject comes up ... What was so wrong with the Old_ School Way? Today, brokers are young folks and their assignment is to gather money putting it into fee based programs. They can't build and construct a portfolio as the old_school brokers could. They simply do a risk assement and then place you into one of their firms investment programs that fit your risk assement.
    Old_Skeet is staying old_school.
    Wishing you the very best with your investing endeavors.
    Old_Skeet
  • RPGAX
    OK. Thanks for the words, obviously informed statements. I just never heard of a mutual fund doing such a thing: investing in a hedge fund. And perhaps right now is not the time? It's a global fund, and there's a ton of political feces going around about now. I would be diversifying away from holding so very much in PRWCX. It's 35% of my stuff. And when I look at performance numbers between the two, I could do nothing at all and come out better off. I can build some cash. Which I've neglected to do for all these years, and eventually put THAT into RPGAX. I would do RPGAX as a regular investment account. In a couple of years, I'm going to stop re-investing everything, and take profits, whether dividends or cap. gains, for current income. Wife will continue to work, at age 45. And it will happen somewhere other than here. AMEN. Thanks, guys.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Hi @Catch22,
    I have no wrap fee based accounts.
    All of my brokerage accounts are of the old school type. However, the firm that I am currently invested with does offer an advisor fee managed account platform. After hearing their presentation I chose not to invested in it. After my study and research the old school account type, for me, was the less expensive. So, I passed on the fee based managed money platform as it was presented. Later, the borker did call and advise he had received authority to discount the fee. Again, asked if I might be interested. I, again, passed.
    I'm finding that the average investment advisors of today are more of a sales person who's task it is to gather assets for the firm's managed account fee program(s). They are not the old school knowledgeable advisor. Recently, I asked one of these new school advisors that knocked on my door a few questions to qualify them to continue our conversation. These were simple questions most knowledgeable investors and advisors would have known the answers to. One of these questions was what is the TTM P/E Ratio for the 500 Index? Their answer given was for the forward estimated P/E Ratio. After, showing him through my smart phone linking into Asvisor Perspectives I showed him what the TTM was. And, also linking to the WSJ I again showed this young man what both the TTM Ratio and F/E Ratio was. Since, he failed to answer correctly, I asked him to move along.
    I'm thinking I'd go the Index route to investing before I'd start paying managed account wrap fees with new money put to work. I'll continue to pay the commission if I can't do a nav transfer or simply park the money in cash as I've got plenty of capital at work in the markets as it is.
    Investing for me is entertaining and one of the ways I use to pass time now that I am in retirement. And, from time-to-time, I'll contract to work an assignement.
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Hi @Derf,
    Thanks for the question.
    The transfers came several ways. Those by gift retained the donor's cost basis. Those that came by inheritance received cost basis step ups. Since they were retitled, to me, years back they have appreciated in value. Thus sizeable capital gains have been built through my years of ownership.
    With this, I now sell some fund shares annually and harvest some of these capital gains. Kind of a self built annuity (of sorts).
    Old_Skeet
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    @ Old_Skeet: When you mention that many shares came your way by means of transfer, does that mean you were co-owner on the account ? Otherwise if this transfer took place due to someones death wouldn't taxes be due? AS I understand there is no step up in capital gains .
    Thanks for your time,
    Derf