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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Old Skeet's Market Barometer Report & Thinking ... May Ending 2019
    Hi @Derf,
    For me, I'm fully invested within my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Following my rebalance policy I can hold up to plus (or minus) two percent form the threshold weighting. With this, I can hold up to a 42% weighting in either my equity allocation or income allocation, or both, while letting cash float before having to do a forced rebalance. This means cash could fall to the 16% range, or below. For equities, I can tactically overweight by up to 5% from the 40% threshold, if felt warranted. So, cash could get as low as 13% and I still would be within my allocation guardrails.
    Just this past week, I bought a little in one of my global equity funds that has a monthly distribution with a yield of 3.4%.
    Remember, stocks usually go soft during the summer months. For me, being a long term investor and (if) wanting to add to my equity allocation I'd average in through the summer months. But, I'd also govern with caution and spread my buys out in a position cost average step buy approach based upon the price movement of the S&P 500 Index.
    An example of my step buy approach would having me buying, from the recent high, at 2850, 2770, 2680, 2590, 2500, and so on and so forth. The deeper the Index falls, in retreat, I'd increase the amount of each step buy. The way I'd, most likely, step out of these positions would be to sell the 2500 step when the Index had moved upward reaching the 2680 mark. This would afford me about a 7% return for this step. Likewise, I'd step out of the 2590 position somewhere around the 2770 mark with a gain of just short of 7%. Through the years this is how I have managed my spiffs (special investment positions). Sometime I buy the equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund (VADAX) and sometimes I buy an equity mutual fund that has a good dividend yield such as EADIX or INUTX. Going the good dividend route pays me while I await the upward turn along with any capital appreciation that I would also make.
    Remember, most A share funds can be exchanged into other A share funds through most mutual fund companies through a nav (net asset value) exchange program commission free. I'd did this many times moving between a bond mutual fund like (ABNDX) to an equity mutual fund like (AGTHX) and then back into a bond fund in the American Funds family for years without paying any commission for these exchanges whatsoever. This is one of the advantages of A share mutual funds that often times get overlooked by investors.
  • Did Your Hedge Fund Manager Just Win A Poker Tournament? It Might Be Time To Cash In.
    FYI: It's no secret that hedge fund managers love betting — on the markets and at the poker table.
    Options trading firm Susquehanna International Group gives its new hires copies of The Theory of Poker and Hold 'Em Poker, Point72 founder Steve Cohen called the game the “biggest determinant” in his learning to take risks, and Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn once placed third in the World Series of Poker tournament. Hedge funds have even hired talented players: Former poker pro Vanessa Selbst was recently recruited by Bridgewater Associates for her prowess.
    Now, though, it’s official: better poker players make better hedge fund managers, according to new research published by the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1fn6z273q3dkj/Did-Your-Hedge-Fund-Manager-Just-Win-a-Poker-Tournament-It-Might-Be-Time-to-Cash-In
  • Brandes Value NextShares to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/926678/000089418919003288/brandes05292019497e.htm
    497 1 brandes05292019497e.htm BRANDES NEXTSHARES VALUE FUND 497E
    BRANDES VALUE NEXTSHARES
    (The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC - BVNSC)
    __________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated May 29, 2019 to
    Prospectus dated January 31, 2019
    ______________________________________________________________________
    Brandes Investment Partners, L.P., the Advisor to the Brandes Value NextShares (the “NextShares Fund”), has recommended, and the Board of Trustees of Brandes Investment Trust has approved, the liquidation and termination of the NextShares Fund. The Advisor’s recommendation was primarily based on the fact that the Advisor does not anticipate that the NextShares Fund will experience meaningful growth in the foreseeable future. The liquidation is expected to occur on June 28, 2019. As a result, the Advisor and the Board believe that the Liquidation of the Fund is in the best interests of shareholders.
    Effective June 3, 2019, the NextShares Fund will no longer accept orders for new creation units. Shares of the NextShares Fund are listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC. Trading in shares of the NextShares Fund will be halted prior to market open on June 21, 2019. In addition, effective immediately, the Advisor will begin an orderly transition of the NextShares Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and cash equivalents and the NextShares Fund will cease investing in assets in accordance with its stated investment objective and policies. Prior to June 21, 2019, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers, and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the NextShares Fund’s shares during that time period. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    On or about June 28, 2019, the NextShares Fund will liquidate its assets and distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These distributions are taxable events. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. In addition, these payments to shareholders will include accrued capital gains and dividends, if any. As calculated on June 28, 2019, the NextShares Fund’s net asset value will reflect the costs of closing the Fund. Once the distributions are complete, the NextShares Fund will terminate.
    Please contact the Fund at (800) 395-3807 if you have questions.
    Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus.
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Waver As Trade Tensions Simmer
    (The Closing Bell will be updated sometime after 4:00 PM CDST to include the latest updates from IBD and Bloomberg Evening Briefing.)
    FYI: The S&P 500 fell Tuesday, as the dimming likelihood of an imminent trade deal upended earlier gains and sent investors seeking less risky assets like U.S. government bonds.
    The broad index was recently down 0.4%, giving up an earlier advance of as much as half a percentage point to put the S&P 500 on pace for another tough week. Losses widened among shares of consumer staples, utilities and energy companies throughout the session, more than offsetting gains from communication stocks.
    The S&P 500 fell 0.84%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 237 points, or 0.93%, to 255347. The Nasdaq Composite also reversed an earlier lead, falling 0.39% in recent trading.
    Investors, meanwhile, appeared to be taking on less-risky assets, such as U.S. government bonds, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury down to a fresh 19-month low.
    Consumer staples shed 1.2% to lead the S&P 500 lower. Food companies notched some of the biggest losses, with Kraft Heinz sliding 6.3%. Kraft, which said last week it wasn’t in compliance with Nasdaq’s financial disclosure rules, has fallen 32% this year due to a regulatory probe into its procurement practices.
    Utilities also struggled, shedding 0.9% in recent trading, while energy companies fell 0.7%.
    Meanwhile, communication stocks were the only S&P 500 sector to still be in the green in late-afternoon trading. Shares of some media companies were helping to support the sector, along with videogame makers after a Goldman Sachs analyst said Activision is on the cusp of an earnings inflection, upgrading the stock to a buy.
    Shares of Activision were up 2.6% in recent trading.
    Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2, snapping a two-session winning streak, while stocks in Asia mostly gained. The Shanghai Composite added 0.6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.4% and Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.4%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-edge-lower-as-trade-worries-hang-over-market-2019-05-28/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-grow-jittery-over-italy-11559053435
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-27/asia-stocks-set-for-muted-open-dollar-edges-up-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/stocks-fade-sp-500-today-ends-lower/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-lingering-trade-worries.html
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/tech-gains-keep-wall-street-afloat-idUSKCN1SY15F
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/ftse-100-miners-capitalise-on-iron-ore-surge-galliford-jumps-idUKKCN1SY0L2
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-retreat-led-by-banks-on-italian-budget-woes-idUSKCN1SY0SE
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-shares-up-in-muted-trading-after-trump-visit-to-japan-2019-05-28/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/us-bonds-wall-street-set-to-monitor-economic-data-treasury-auctions.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/forex-market-eu-elections-trumps-japan-visit-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/oil-market-chinese-economy-opec-supply-cuts-in-focus.html
    Gold
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/gold-market-dollar-moves-eu-elections-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • 17 monthly dividend to buy hold forever
    Vehicles mentioned in article
    Kayne Anderson MLP Investment Fund (KYN)
    Johnson&johnson
    Cococola
    Blackstone Group LP (BX) to Carl Icahn’s diversified holding company Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP) to even roller-coaster specialist Cedar Fair LP (FUN).
    Ares Capital (ARCC)
    Hercules Capital (HTGC)
    Vnq
    landlord Boston Properties (BXP), healthcare-property investor National Health Investors (NHI), hotel owner Ryman Hospitality Properties (RHP), data-center owner Digital Realty Trust (DLR), and warehouse manager STAG Industrial (STAG).
  • Mary Beth Franklin: How To Battle Sequence-Of-Returns Risk
    FYI: There were two recurring themes at the annual InvestmentNews​ Retirement Income Summit in Chicago earlier this month: the economic impact of increased longevity and the need for guaranteed income in retirement.
    Retirement has traditionally been described as a long-term investment goal. That's true for the accumulation phase. But as clients near the retirement-distribution phase, financial planning needs to shift to risk management and capital preservation.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=OcrrXLLfOszGsAWW2om4Aw&q=How+to+battle+sequence-of-returns+risk&oq=How+to+battle+sequence-of-returns+risk&gs_l=psy-ab.12..33i22i29i30.3194.3194..8730...0.0..0.347.440.1j3-1......0....2j1..gws-wiz.....0.mCqDITIbkQ8
  • 50-70% Allocation funds...
    Thanks to @msf for the SEC link. It’s much better than the (SEC) one I uncovered about an hour earlier - but still time-consuming and difficult to navigate. I managed to pull-up perhaps eight or ten reports for PRWCX. And thanks to @Sven for the opportunity to go back and do all the reading. :)
    - Most significant is this reference to covered call overwriting by David Giroux in PRWCX’s Semi-Annual Report of June, 2013. (Since he references the last five years I saw no need to plow back through those earlier reports.)
    “Before we review the portfolio, we want to briefly discuss the Capital Appreciation Fund’s covered call overwriting strategy, which we have employed for more than five years. Covered call overwriting involves buying a stock and then selling a call option—a contract whereby we agree at a future date to sell the stock at a predetermined (strike) price. In return for selling this call option, we are paid a premium (typically a 2% to 5% annualized incremental yield) that provides extra income to the fund. While the strategy caps our upside in an individual stock (usually 10% or higher), it provides incremental income that can enhance total returns, lower our downside risk, and generally has produced excellent risk-adjusted returns. Over the last five years, this strategy (a return combination of underlying stocks, calls, and dividend income) has generated a stronger return than the fund itself and has done so with less risk. However, in the first six months of 2013, this strategy produced subpar total and risk-adjusted returns mainly due to poor stock selection. Given the excellent long-term risk-adjusted returns of this strategy, we believe it will continue to play a meaningful role in your fund. As of June 30, 2013, we had calls written on about 14% of our equity holdings.”. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793347/000120677413003000/srcaf_ncsrs.htm
    - Another interesting reference involves futures positions in his Annual Report from December 2014:
    “In addition, we have initiated futures positions in two European indexes that give us exposure to the European equity market, but we have effectively hedged much of the currency risk associated with these investments so that we have generated local currency market returns (and thus have a better risk-adjusted return for U.S. investors). The combination of these investments is still relatively modest at only about 3% of your fund’s assets and is unlikely to become greater than 5% under most circumstances.”. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793347/000120677415000583/arcaf_ncsr.htm
    - A breakdown of the fund’s positioning included in this (above) report shows -1% “options”. Adding up the numbers suggests that this -1% represents a short position in some security.
    - There’s a reference to investing in leveraged loans in his June, 2017 Report. I don’t have knowledge of how risky these are - but it’s not something I’d normally have thought the fund a big player in:
    “Our high yield and leveraged loan holdings have declined from 17.9% of assets at the end of 2016 to 13.1% at the end of June due to a combination of selective sales, maturities, bonds being called, and choosing not to consent to repricings of leveraged loans. While we are continuing to buy a couple of high-quality, idiosyncratic high yield bonds, we would still expect our exposure to decline in the second half of the year—in the absence of a correction in spreads.”. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793347/000120677417002589/srcaf_ncsrs.htm
    - On a final note, a recent move into Amazon was (by Giroux’s admission) far outside the fund’s normal (valuation driven) approach. My suspicion (only a suspicion) is that fund bloat may be one driving force behind this purchase:
    “We readily acknowledge that Amazon is not a classic Capital Appreciation stock, as it lacks the traditional valuation support and easily quantifiable downside found in almost every other equity investment that we have made ... While Amazon is not classically inexpensive, the size of the market opportunity available and Amazon’s sustainable competitive advantage in both cloud computing and e-commerce make it unlike anything in which Capital Appreciation has invested before either. We strongly believe that our ownership of Amazon is in the best interests of our shareholders ...” . (December 2016). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793347/000120677417000506/arcaf_ncsr.htm
    PS - Getting late. If any of the above links don’t work or are inaccurate, let me know and I’ll make appropriate corrections.
  • SFGIX, WTF
    I have read Vanguard's article several times. My question is when will the EM investment opportunities reflected into markets, i.e. translate in equity gains. What is being observed in last several years is high volatility especially in severe drawdowns. I am okay to maintain some exposure to EM equity but argue that US equity (large caps) also have sizable revenue in the EM countries. Asian markets is taking a beating lately with strong dollar and the trade war.
  • 50-70% Allocation funds...
    @Sven,
    I’ll try to locate my earlier source / reference on the derivative strategy sometimes used by PRWCX. It may take a day or so to dig that up. But it was primarily a strategy to generate income using stocks in some type of mutually beneficial contract with another party. The buyer of the option received a chance for upside potential should the stock increase in value. In return, PRWCX sacrificed some (or all?) of the stock’s upside potential in return for downside protection plus income. It was first mentioned 5-7 years ago by Giroux in a fund report. I haven’t read his reports recently. But just glanced at one tonight. While I can’t answer your question directly at the moment, how’s this excerpt (from Giroux) for honesty? It’s from the December 31, 2018 Annual Report for PRWCX. (It sounds like he’s being taken to “the woodshed” - and yet has nothing IMHO to apologize for.)
    “We were disappointed in our investments in industrials, such as Middleby, a manufacturer of commercial food service equipment and high-end residential kitchen equipment. We bought it because the valuation and stock price had come down, management had a very good long-term track record on M&A, and, given higher labor costs at restaurants in a tight labor market, we felt that Middleby’s sales would benefit from a movement to substitute equipment for labor. From a process perspective, we made multiple errors that we do not intend to make again. First, we bought the stock without having met management. Assessing the quality of a management team is a very important part of our investment process. Second, earnings quality had deteriorated, with free cash flow conversion to net income dropping below 100%. Third, while capital allocation had been positive over the long run, recent acquisitions in the high-end residential kitchen equipment space had performed poorly.
    “With GE, we started buying the stock right after the announcement that Larry Culp would become CEO. We bought too much too quickly given the risk profile of the company, and this hurt returns in 2018. We believe in GE and its new CEO and consider their aviation and health care businesses to be fundamentally solid. However, the initial position size should have been smaller, and we should have built the position more slowly. Again, we hope to avoid these mistakes in the future.”
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/m_document.asp?clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105&docid=2205655&doctype=ann&docdate=20181231&back=1
  • The Closing Bell: U.S. Stocks Rebound After Selloff
    (The Closing Bell will be updated sometime after 4:00 PM CDST to include the latest updates from IBD and Bloomberg Evening Briefing.)
    FYI: U.S. stocks pared their early gains but remained slightly higher Friday, a day after investors pulled money out of riskier companies such as technology firms in favor of safe-haven assets such as U.S. government bonds.
    Energy firms resumed their slide as the price of U.S.-traded oil fell for a fourth consecutive session. Despite those declines, the broader market bounced back slightly from their drop on Thursday, illustrating that even as investors have grown more wary about the effects of the U.S.-China trade standoff on the U.S. and other economies, they remain cautiously optimistic about the future of corporate profits.
    On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 95 points, or 0.37%, after earlier rising as much as 180 points. The S&P 500 gained 0.14% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.11%.
    ll three indexes are on pace for weekly declines—as well as steep monthly losses—amid escalating bluster between the U.S. and China, higher tariffs and uncertain economic damage. On Thursday, the Dow industrials lost nearly 300 points, the same day the Federal Reserve Bank of New York warned that tariffs imposed on Chinese imports were costing the average household $813 each a year. The blue-chip index is on pace to notch its fifth consecutive weekly loss, which would mark its longest such losing stretch since 2011.
    Worries about the economic impact hit oil prices hard Thursday, with U.S.-traded crude prices dropping 5.7% for their biggest one-day fall since Christmas eve 2018. U.S.-traded crude fell an additional 0.2% on Friday.
    Government bond prices slipped and yields rose slightly Friday, rowing back on the trend of investors’ growing preference for safety that has pushed yields generally lower all year. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were back up to 2.316% from 2.296% on Thursday, which was their lowest level since October 2017.
    n Europe, the British pound rose after a week of declines as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced Friday she would resign in two weeks to allow a new leader to try to break log-jammed efforts to agree to a way to leave the European Union.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%, with Germany’s DAX up 0.4%, partially recovering from a near 2% drop Thursday when it was weighed down in part by Deutsche Bank, which slipped 2.4% to close at an all-time low.
    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.3% and China’s Shanghai A-shares were flat, while the Nikkei 225 slipped 0.2%.
    Regards,
    Ted
    Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/your-evening-briefing
    MarketWatch:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rise-on-signs-trump-administration-could-soften-huawei-stance-2019-05-24/print
    WSJ:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-rise-after-selloff-11558685546
    Bloomberg:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-23/asia-stocks-to-drop-amid-escalating-trade-tension-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
    IBD:
    https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-leads-stock-market-caps-volatile-week-with-gains/
    CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/stock-market-slight-rebound-after-trade-fears-roil-markets.html
    Reuters:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-clings-to-slight-gains-after-trump-sparks-u-s-china-trade-hopes-idUSKCN1SU1CL
    U.K:
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/uk-stocks-shrug-off-mays-exit-but-brexit-risk-lurks-idUKKCN1SU0NI
    Europe:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-recover-after-trump-signal-on-trade-war-idUSKCN1SU0M3
    Asia:
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-mixed-amid-lingering-trade-war-worries-2019-05-23/print
    Bonds:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/us-bonds-in-focus-on-wall-street-amid-ongoing-trade-war-worries.html
    Currencies:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/forex-market-us-china-trade-war-us-treasury-yields-in-focus.html
    Oil:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/oil-market-middle-east-tensions-opec-supply-cuts-in-focus.html
    Gold
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/gold-market-dollar-moves-us-china-trade-war-in-focus.html
    WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
    https://markets.wsj.com/us
    Major ETFs % Change:
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
    SPDR's Sector Tracker:
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
    SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
    Current Futures:
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • Hedge Fund Manager David Tepper Plans To Send Investors' Money Back
    FYI: Billionaire David Tepper plans to turn his hedge fund Appaloosa Management into a family office where he will invest his personal fortune and return capital to outside clients at some point, a person familiar with his plans said on Thursday.
    Appaloosa, which was founded by Tepper, has gained an average of 25% each year for more than a quarter century and manages $13 billion in capital.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hedgefunds-appaloosa/hedge-fund-manager-david-tepper-plans-to-send-investors-money-back-idUSKCN1ST1VB
  • Broadview Opportunity Fund to be reorganized into Madison Small Cap Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1040612/000104061219000058/madisonsmallcapprospsupple.htm
    Madison Funds
    Supplement dated May 22, 2019
    This Supplement amends the Prospectus of the Madison Funds and the Summary Prospectus
    for the Madison Small Cap Fund dated February 28, 2019
    Small Cap Fund
    Madison Asset Management, LLC (“Madison”), the investment adviser (the “Adviser”) to the Madison Funds (the “Funds”), has entered into an asset purchase agreement with Broadview Advisors, LLC (“Broadview”) pursuant to which Madison has agreed to purchase certain assets relating to Broadview’s advisory business (the “Transaction”). As part of the Transaction, Madison will assume the assets of the Broadview Opportunity Fund (the “Broadview Fund”), the sole series of Broadview Funds Trust, by reorganizing it with and into the Madison Small Cap Fund (the “Small Cap Fund”), a series of the Madison Funds (the “Reorganization”).
    On May 8, 2019, the Board of Trustees of the Madison Funds, including a majority of the independent trustees, approved the Reorganization and determined that the Reorganization was in the best interests of the Small Cap Fund and its shareholders and that the interests of shareholders would not be diluted as a result thereof. The Board of Trustees of the Broadview Fund approved the Reorganization on May 13, 2019.
    The Reorganization shall be effective as soon as practicable following notice to Broadview Fund shareholders pursuant to a combined information statement/prospectus, currently anticipated July 26, 2019 (the “Effective Date”). Shareholder approval is not required to effect the Reorganization, and shareholder approval is not being sought.
    In connection with the Effective Date of the Reorganization, the Board of Trustees of the Funds approved the following:
    1. Madison will continue to manage the Small Cap Fund, which is currently subadvised by Wellington Capital Management LLP (“Wellington”). Wellington will cease to be the sub-adviser as of the Effective Date. Three of the four existing portfolio managers of the Broadview Fund, Rick Lane, Faraz Farzam and Aaron Garcia, will become employees of Madison and will manage the Small Cap Fund. Rick Whiting, the remaining portfolio manager of the Broadview Fund has elected to retire and will not be joining Madison. Biographical information regarding the portfolio managers is provided below.
    •Mr. Richard E. Lane, CFA, currently serves as the President and a Member of Broadview, which he founded in 2001. He has served as a portfolio manager to the Broadview Fund since November 29, 2013, and to the FMI Focus Fund (the Broadview Fund “Predecessor Fund”) from October 1, 1997 until its reorganization into the Broadview Fund on November 29, 2013 (the “Reorganization”). Mr. Lane has worked in the financial services industry since 1982 and has a BA in Economics and an MS in Finance from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
    •Mr. Faraz Farzam, CFA, has been with the Broadview since 2001 and is currently a Portfolio Manager and a Member of Broadview. Mr. Farzam has served as a portfolio manager to the Broadview Fund since November 29, 2013, and to the Predecessor Fund from January 2010 until the Reorganization. Mr. Farzam has worked in the financial services industry since 1999 and has a BS from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
    • Mr. Aaron J. Garcia, CFA, has been with Broadview since 2003 and is currently a Portfolio Manager and a Member of Broadview. Mr. Garcia has served as a portfolio manager to the Broadview Fund since November 29, 2013, and to the Predecessor Fund from January 2010 until the Reorganization. Mr. Garcia has worked in the financial services industry since 2002 and has a BA from Rice University.
    2. An amendment to the Services Agreement between the Adviser and Madison Funds to reduce the service fee with respect to the Small Cap Fund from an annual rate of 0.25% to 0.21%, and cap total annual operating expenses for a two-year period to 1.21% for Class Y (which is the current expense ratio of the Broadview Fund share class, excluding acquired fund fees and expenses), and to 1.46% and 2.21% for Class A and Class B, respectively (excluding acquired fund fees and expenses).
    3. The legal survivor of the Reorganization will be the Madison Small Cap Fund, however, the accounting survivor will be the Broadview Fund therefore its performance and financial history will survive the Reorganization.
    Please keep this Supplement with your records.
  • M*: The Long View: Guest: Morgan Housel: Podcast
    FYI: Our guest for this week's installment of The Long View podcast is Morgan Housel. Morgan is a partner at the Collaborative Fund, a venture capital firm that makes investments in firms that in its words are "at the intersection of for-profit and for-good." A former columnist at The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal, Morgan has become one of the most prolific and insightful writers on the investment decision-making process, as evidenced by his impressive body of work on the Collaborative Fund website's blog.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/930343/housel-no-one-hires-a-luck-manager.html
    Morgan Housel Website:
    https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/no-one-is-crazy/
  • 50-70% Allocation funds...
    I agree in theory that someone just out of high school would be best served by investing long term in pure equity. But I also remember starting out and being spooked by the idea of investing, period. You mean I could lose money?
    While pure equity is better, a hybrid fund might be a reasonable compromise, especially for someone watching his first investment going up and down.
    I like the idea of going global. So no "total" stock market where "total" means US. Rather something like VTWAX/VT. In the 50-70% allocation arena, davfor and hank mentioned RPGAX which seems like a good choice. Vanguard Star VGSTX would seem to be a good candidate as well, especially given the interest in a low minimum balance. It would take $1K to start, but then one can add $1/investment.
    If this would be a joint account, it couldn't be an IRA. Still, taxes would likely not be a consideration for some time. Further, it might make sense to sell before earning "real" money, to recognize the gains with no taxes and reset the basis. Contributions to an IRA would be limited to compensation. Though the money could come from someone else as a gift.
    (Financial institutions are funny in the ways they accept money. I recently lent a friend cash for a couple of days which she repaid by depositing a check to my Fidelity account. No problems. On the other hand, to bootstrap a BofA checking account I deposited $100 cash which I took directly from their ATM to their teller. I was required to show two forms of ID. Perhaps they thought the bills they were handing out were counterfeit?)
    @catch22 I've never seen Fidelity (or most brokerages) offer to sell fractional shares of ETFs or stocks. (There are a few brokerages that offer "curated" baskets of securities where you can own fractional shares.) At Fidelity, when I go to buy a security like ITOT, there's a "calculate quantity" button. When I use that and input $100, it calculates 1 share; it doesn't offer me the option of buying 1.3 shares, give or take. Are you talking about buying fractional shares or reinvesting divs?
  • Average 401k soared 466% over past 10 yrs
    @Derf @hank
    If one plucked down "x" dollars, buy and hold on Oct. 30, 2007; the below percentages are total return for the period through May 16, 2019.
    Same chart layout as last post, but with a start date of Oct. 30, 2007; which is very close to multiple equity market tops before the big melt of Sept., 2008.
    Total returns for this period, buy and hold.
    --- QQQ = 278%
    --- FSPHX = 276%
    --- FDGRX = 228%
    --- VPMCX = 198%
    --- FCNTX = 168%
    --- SPY = 138%
    Another observation. Same funds chart, but from Oct. 30, 2007 to Jan. 2013.
    Imagine an investor deciding to invest $100,00 on Oct. 30, 2007, and vowed to be brave and bold enough to ride the equity markets through 2020, when some of the money would aid in retirement.
    They sweat a bit as they find their portfolio value dip going into the end of 2007. But, about half way into 2008, things are looking better. Then early September tests their braveness, to be further tested into the end of the year and the spring of 2009. Going into the end of March, 2009, the worst appears to be past. The equity markets move along and slightly upward through the rest of 2009, 2010 and then the middle of 2011 finds another portfolio whack as the credit rating of the U.S. is downgraded. Eventually, a bit more positive travel for the remainder of 2011 and 2012.
    However, take a peek at the returns after a little more than 5 years.
    I suspect these are the types of experiences that find folks leaving equity investing and not returning.
    Five years can be a very long time to watch one's money travel such a path.
    Chart here
    Have a good remainder,
    Catch
  • Average 401k soared 466% over past 10 yrs
    Reviewing chart activity just before the big melt in Sept., 2008 and related to @Derf and the question of "just before" the sell off; I've placed a few investments in the below linked chart. And @hank for your review.
    For the most part the overall U.S. equity sectors were flat for July and August of 2008; and the logic for the starting point.
    From the chart, I will place the rounded total return values; and to note that these numbers reflect a buy and hold with whatever dollar amount was invested on Aug. 13, 2008. These numbers include distributions (dividends, cap. gains).
    --- QQQ = 319%
    --- FSPHX = 314%
    --- FDGRX = 272%
    --- VPMCX = 214%
    --- FCNTX = 203%
    --- SPY = 174%
    A few selected, widely held funds chart Aug. 12, 2008 to date
  • Average 401k soared 466% over past 10 yrs
    This 466% number includes the additional contributions people have made into these plans over the past decade. Without that inclusion the gains in value would have been lower. I’m wondering, too, if it includes self-directed 401Ks which provide a tax haven to the very rich and have much higher contribution limits. These would have grown disproportionately to the 401Ks most wage earners have. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jrose/2018/07/17/the-1-account-all-wealthy-people-have-that-you-probably-dont/
    I think more needs to be done here to try and differentiate how much of this increased wealth went to the small investor (typically working a 9-5 shift) and how much of it actually reflects gains at the upper end of the income level (perhaps the top 10 or 20% of the population). I fear digging deeper might only serve to demonstrate the growing wealth disparity among the population over the past decade.
    All that said ... the domestic equity markets are up something like 300-400% since the bottom almost exactly 10 years ago, March 9, 2009. (Seems to me the DJI got close to 6500.) So, assuming all participants remained 100% in equities in their 401 K plans, the numbers have a semblance of reality. I doubt that’s the case however. Most diversify. Some borrow from plans. Some types of investments lag the S&P, etc.
    -
    @Derf - Good question. Here’s some crude calculations (from a non-math guy): Broad U.S equity markets fell around 50% during the bear market (‘07-‘09). So I’ll start by cutting in half a $100 401K balance. That leaves $50 by the time the bear ended. Than I’ll multiply the remaining balance by 466% to reflect its growth over the next decade. That results in a gain of 233% on the original investment (including new contributions) from just before the crash to roughly the present (a 12 year period). The resultant average gain in value is 19%.( But with compounding factored in it would be less.)
  • Art Cashin: "Traders Think President Got Monday's Market Message"
    The Spaceship 2020 commander will likely back down from more than holding off on auto tariffs just announced. One must suspect, regardless of any critical thinking on this part, that the perception of a fading economy and falling investment markets is the last thing he wants before the voting booths open.
  • SFGIX, WTF
    Lastly, I couldn't find a specific listing for the symbol, WTF
    I've had a lot of funds with this symbol over the years @catch22, as in WTF did I buy this fund for :)
    A few things going on in my head I guess. One is a post from a few weeks ago with the question, do you really need an EM fund? The other is the performance record for SFGIX over the past 3+ years. On the positive side, it is a tamer way to play the EM category if you choose to be there. That plus the managers thoughtful approach to capital protection IS why I bought it.
    Oh, well, just thinking out loud. Thanks for the discussion.
  • Art Cashin: "China May Boycott One Or Two Treasury Auctions"
    Hi @Derf:
    FWIW
    I'm looking to do a little buying, in some of my good dividend paying equity funds, like (INUTX & SVAAX), should the S&P 500 Index venture into the 2750 range or below. INUTX has a yield of about 3.0% and SVAAX has a yield of about 3.5%. I'm not looking to add to my capital appreciation type equity funds, such as (KAUAX), at this time. US Treasuries simply are not offering enough yield for me to invest there when I can get a 1 year CD in the 2.4% to 2.5% yield range. Just last week I bought an 18mo CD paying 2.45%. In comparison, my money market mutual funds are currently paying north of 2.25%.