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These subprime borrowers have now been in their homes 12 to 16 years and have built up equity instead of being upside down when the housing market cratered in 07/08. Dan Ivascyn mentioned in his recent interview how unlikely these borrowers would be to default now even if they their economic situation worsens. There may be another economic crisis but next time it may finally be the much ballyhooed corporate credit crisis. From my experience investors always want to relive the previous crisis not realizing they never immediately repeat. A classic example is the inflation crisis of the 70s. How many times have we heard since then another inflation crisis is just around the corner.@Junkster
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I'm not sure where they're still finding non-agency debt trading at 70 cents on the dollar of par value today. One of their major competitors, Angel Oak, at the end of 2018 said they were buying at 86 cents on the dollar: https://angeloakcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/4Q/Seeking_to_Improve_Quality_While_Maintaining_Income_Whitepaper-web.pdf
Here's what Angel Oak says:So if it's 70 cents, I assume it is probably lower credit quality, which could be fine so long as one is willing to accept the additional default risk. I see the distinction in your post is sub-prime so that must be it.For example, the prime, Alt-A, and option ARM legacy NA RMBS we target at the top of the capital structure are still at deep discounts relative to par at approximately 86 cents on the dollar.
Update: OK, I see here for AlphaCentric's own data, the portfolio is at 75 cents on the dollar and the entire market they say is 81 cents on the dollar: alphacentricfunds.com/funds/IncomeOpp/presentation.pdf
Yet it is interesting--one word for it, scary is another--how far down the capital structure with regard to collateral and credit quality you have to go to get to such discounts now. See page 19 to look at their example of the debt tranches. I'm not saying this strategy won't work, but clearly there are risks here.
So if it's 70 cents, I assume it is probably lower credit quality, which could be fine so long as one is willing to accept the additional default risk. I see the distinction in your post is sub-prime so that must be it.For example, the prime, Alt-A, and option ARM legacy NA RMBS we target at the top of the capital structure are still at deep discounts relative to par at approximately 86 cents on the dollar.
Whoops. At least Merriman's column is labeled "Opinion".Despite the notable cost advantage, each Freedom Index fund lagged its Freedom series counterpart since the Freedom Index series' late-2009 launch through December 2018; the funds underperformed by 15-73 basis points annualized. The absence of active management and certain subasset classes, like high-yield bonds, from Freedom Index contributed to these re-
sults.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fidelitys-latest-gambit-for-your-retirement-savings-1536247498Actively managed funds will comprise a bigger slice of the pie in areas where the markets are less efficient and active managers can add more value, says Andrew Dierdorf, co-manager of the Freedom Funds. That will primarily be in small-caps, high-yield bonds, floating-rate loans, and emerging markets. The funds’ underlying exposure to large-cap equities and government fixed income will be more index-oriented, he says.
I fail to see what relevance the last quarter inflows in 2017 has to do with now September 2019. IOFIX has trounced every bond fund in the multi sector, emerging market, high yield corporate and high yield muni, as well as the non traditional bond categories over the past three years with a 10.50% annualized return. There is no close second. I would think the dumb money is the money still waiting to initiate a position. When that occurs it may be time to run for the hills. In the meantime, its compelling story of being heavily invested in the ever shrinking legacy non agency rmbs arena continues."... It attracted more capital in last quarter of 2017 than in the first six quarters of its existence. It ended the year with $1.6B, five times the level it started the year..."
Jeepers. Is that a lotta "dumb money," then? Thanks for replying, all of you. I track IOFIX but don't own it. I own PTIAX, which is not quite the same animal, but in the same ballpark, right?
It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is akin to the accuracy of all the pundits who are forever predicting crashes.
The accuracy of political polls ( Brexit and Trump) is akin to the accuracy of all the pundits who are forever predicting crashes.It's not politics but trump will Loose this time for sure -13 points in most polls vs old joe/vp sanders (Dream team) .. 99%chance that Biden will win elections 2020
No need for recession
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