* "Gary1952">What is too conservative? I have a basic AA of 50/50. But the 50% bond OEFs have 50% (25% overall) in low duration/lower yielding "safer" type funds. The other 50% (25% overall) is in higher yielding multi/non-traditional funds. I own no "ballast" funds such as core/core plus OEFs. Is this too conservative or not conservative enough? My goal is to target 3-4% yearly income from divs, CDs and growth.
My market correlation for 10 years is .35%. The max draw down is -.42% for the bond OEFs.
I know it is my judgment but I am curious what others think.
Gary, In a more specific response to your post, you and I use very similar kinds of funds, although I break my funds down into funds for my taxable account, and funds for my tax exempt (IRA) account. In my taxable account if use more of the "safer" bond oefs, but with a wide variation if diversity. So, for example, DHEAX is the short term bond fund I use, but I consider it more risky than DBLSX and less risky than FIJEX. There is an argument that you could use just one of these short term bond funds, or you could use more than one of these funds for more diversification. I use 4 very different nontraditional bond oefs in my taxable account because they are all "conservative" for me, but they don't always perform the same in a given set of market conditions. PUTIX is my most risky nontraditional bond oef, MWCIX is my least risky nontraditional bond oef. I also own a municipal bond oef which is a HY MUNI (AAHMX) and this is one of the least risky HY Munis you can own. I used it to replace BTMIX, which is a very good short term investment grade muni bond oef, but I felt I was ready to move up in risk. I have considered NVHAX, but it is more risky than AAHMX, and NHHAX has some history of significant peak to trough losses and a larger "worst 3 month performance period" than AAHMX. I am still considering adding NVHAX to my portfolio in 2020, but if I do, I will probably make it much smaller position than AAHMX. In the past I have used MMHAX as longer duration and more risky bond oef, but I am not inclined to use it right now because I am not comfortable with its risk level. I am very clear that many investors will use much more risky bond oefs in their taxable account because there are a lot of pundits thinking they will sail through 2020 in the same way they sailed through 2019--that may fit their conservative criteria, but not mine.
When it comes to my IRA account, I use several multisector bond oefs that are more risky than what I will use in my taxable account. I rank order multisector bond oefs in roughly the following low to higher risk: ANGIX, VCFAX, PIMIX, PTIAX, JMUTX, JMSIX, PUCZX, IOFIX. All investors can make an argument for these funds being "conservative" based on the criteria they use. For me, I have chosen to only use VCFAX and PIMIX, but I don't dismiss the rationale from others to use some of these other funds. For me, I would not touch IOFIX with a 10 foot pole, but there are many others who believe this is the next great multisector bond oef.
At any rate, it appears to me that you are using relatively conservative bond oefs, but you could very easily change your criteria for other bond oefs to fit your investing roles you have defined for each fund.
Investment Thoughts January 2020 First time poster, greetings to all, posting some investment thoughts via stream of consciousness, all feedback welcome
I'm heavily invested in Dominion Energy Reliability Notes, paying 2.7% / $50k+ investments, you are lower on the capital structure here, full access to your funds at any time, no FDIC but backed by the financial strength of the company. Does anyone have any experience investing in these Notes or have additional input?
Following closely the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors...does anyone on that thread really trust/know what their funds are invested in? Even conservative funds with asset backed holdings rated highly by the rating agencies you have to wonder don't you? Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes. Driving up Sheridan Road in the affluent North Shore burbs of CHI seems every fifth McMansion is up for sale...and same homes been for sale seems like over two years...escape from taxes and/or many of those folks living in those expensive homes know we are in an epic asset bubble?
Heavily invested in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Berkshire - B (BRK/B), consider them a sort of "defacto", well managed, mutual funds without the fees. Follow Akre and Ackman via GuruFocus new holdings, have invested in Agilent (A) and Descartes Systems Group (DSGX). Heavily invested in Medtronic (MDT) and Teleflex (TFX), we're all getting older and looking for the repeal of the ridiculous Medical Device Tax (taxes profits not revenue, huh, who thought that was a good idea, companies thus cut jobs or sent solid paying jobs overseas).
Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance, "skimming off the top" with their management fees. ETFs are not for me, do like their low cost but too linked to herd behavior, what goes up must come down, no? I'm amazed by how many folks who invest in their 401Ks etc just follow what they are told by the "plan representatives" and have no idea how the markets work or what they are invested in.
Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above.
Comments?
Good investing to all,
B
J.P.Morgan Guide to the Markets Q1 2020 There is an awful lot to look at here in this PDF but I'd like to draw your attention in particular to the charts on page 61 showing investors retreating from the market (defined as the S&P 500) as the market marches higher and page 64 the 20 year returns by asset class. A few surprises in there for me.
J.P. Morgan Guide PDF
Don't Be Fooled By Bond Markets' Risk-On Rally In December As Caution Lies Ahead For 2020 As primarily a bond oef investor, 2019 was a great year to invest in bond oefs, with many bond oefs producing double digit total return. Short term momentum investors, will cite the hottest bond oefs, as the funds to invest in for 2020. My experience is that bond oefs will eventually return to a TR that is close to their history, and so there is a tendency to chase performance, buy funds that won the short term performance race, and assume they are the best investments going forward. Often those hottest performers in a given year, will become below average performers in subsequent years. If you are a momentum investor, who focuses on shorter term performance, then you simply sell a fund when it crosses a moving average loss point, and move on to other funds with a better short term momentum performance pattern. I am not good at trading, so I tend to focus of funds with smoother performance patterns, with good capture ratios, and attempt to be patient when bond oefs have "cooler" performance periods. You have to determine what kind of investor you are, and what roles you want a given bond to play in your portfolio.
Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020 "What should your retirement wish be for 2020"
Well, my wish is that our health remains in as good shape as our retirement income. At the moment, that may be somewhat optimistic.
Bridgewater Associates says flagship fund will be flat on the year https://nypost.com/2020/01/07/bridgewater-associates-says-flagship-fund-will-be-flat-on-the-year/amp/Bridgewater Associates says flagship fund will be flat on the year
The world’s largest hedge fund is proving a bit of a lightweight.
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has notified investors that its flagship Pure Alpha fund will be flat on the year — ending an 18-year winning streak, according to Institutional Investor.
It’s unclear what Dalio told investors in reporting the disappointing results, but flat returns could be difficult to justify in a year when the S&P 500 index returned 31.5 percent.
Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for 2020 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-should-your-retirement-wish-be-for-2020-2020-01-08Opinion: What should your retirement wish be for
2020Which of the following retirement scenarios would you want to come true in
2020?
Lower interest rates along higher stock and bond prices, or higher interest rates and lower stock and bond markets? If you’re like most retirees and soon-to-be retirees to whom I pose this question, the answer is a no-brainer: Of course your fervent wish is for the former.
Don't Be Fooled By Bond Markets' Risk-On Rally In December As Caution Lies Ahead For 2020
Fund Spy: International-Stock Funds Bounce Back in 2019. By Tom Nations, CFP 1/7/
2020"The United States-China trade conflict roiled global supply chains and equities, but a de-escalation in the latter half of the year spurred optimism. Dovish central banks drove global interest rates to low-to-negative levels, making equities look good relative to fixed income. As investors grew more sanguine about macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, the MSCI All Country World Index ex USA rose 21.5%. Developed equities outperformed their emerging counterparts, with the MSCI EAFE Index's 22.0% gain besting the MSCI Emerging Markets Index's 18.4%."
More Here
How to Pick a First Bond Fund https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/best-mutual-funds-new-manager-same-strategy/How to Pick a First Bond Fund
We tell first-time bond investors what they need to know about intermediate core bond funds.
Michael Schramm
Jan 6,
2020Mentioned: Baird Aggregate Bond Inst (BAGIX)
Bonds play an important role in a portfolio. Many types of bonds hold up well when stocks decline, so they can help smooth out sharp stock market swings. Funds from the intermediate core bond Morningstar Category are suitable for investors of all ages. We'll take a closer look at the category and show you how to use Morningstar research to choose a fund.
* I have completed making portfolio adjustments in my retirement portfolio for end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. I attempt to look at funds I am most likely to be able to hold for all of 2020--I don't like to buy and sell frequently, am not good at timing, and prefer funds with a smoother performance pattern and strong downside performance history. Trying to make some adjustments in my Traditional IRA account consumed my most recent considerations. I looked closely at JMSIX, PUCZX, and JMUTX as potential new multisector bond funds to my portfolio--they had excellent performance in 2019, but I ultimately chose to just increase the amount I hold in some existing funds such as VCFAX, PIMIX, IISIX, and SEMMX. These existing funds have lower volatility/standard deviation, and I am more likely to continue holding them in a calendar year, which I suspect may have some challenges with the elections and some global tensions. In short, I wanted to maintain some holdings that look like to have good defensive performance characteristics. I am more focused on preservation of principal, than chasing the performance of recent hot funds.
Best wishes on making choices you feel good about for 2020!
7 Best Fixed-Income Funds As Fed Keeps Rates Steady @Simon My "Cash Pot" for
2020 is set at 10% of my primary portfolio. ZEOIX is 1/2 of that. The rest is spread among SEMRX, SHV, and JPST. M* puts the most recent SHV annual return at 2.32%. We will see what
2020 brings....
Qn re: Tax Reform Makes Real Estate Investment Trusts More Attractive See below. For those of us that happen to own REIT mutual funds in non-retirement accounts, how exactly does this 'advantage' work, when we file our taxes? Thanks.
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/tax-reform-makes-real-estate-investment-trusts-more-attractive-53448.htmlFAMag: Tax Reform Makes Real Estate Investment Trusts More Attractive
January 6,
2020 • Jeff Stimpson
... According to the IRS, income from a REIT in a mutual fund will be considered QBI, Cordes said, adding that this deduction is available for all shareholders regardless of their income level or whether they itemize or take the standard deduction.
REITs once had a worse reputation regarding taxes—a bias that lingers even after tax reform. “Most high-net-worth clients are not aware of the additional tax benefits afforded to them for REIT investments created by the TCJA,” said Davin Carey, senior wealth advisor of Carey & Hanna Tax & Wealth Planners in Oxnard, Calif., and a representative of Avantax Investment Services.
MFO Premium’s Best Funds of the Decade Yesterday, all fund risk and return metrics, ratings, and analytics were uploaded to
MFO Premium, reflecting performance through December 2019 … end of the decade.
To mark the decade's end, we're bringing attention to a short list of funds that delivered exceptional returns while protecting downside, which has been at the heart of
MFO's Rating System since it began in 2013.
We'll call them
MFO Premium's Best Funds of the Decade. There are just seven. You can find them
here on the blog page. (Hint: If Morningstar still selects Manager of the Decade, I suspect Dan Ivascyn and Charles Akre will be among the top contenders.)
Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle @David_Snowball Is this a useful focus? How might I improve it?
I think it's worth adding international exposure even if it didn't hold up as well in the last crash for the full cycle. The thing is, to improve results one must always be thinking forward and while performance history is useful, it is only useful in regard to finding clues to how something might perform in the future. So the question becomes what fund on the list might repeat its success during the next market cycle and what isn't on the list that will also do well? I think international exposure is important now for two reasons--relative valuations between U.S. and emerging markets are particularly wide, increasing one's opportunity set with emerging exposure. But two, and this has been true for a long time, Americans have a significant home country bias even if they don't own stocks at all. Most of one's assets and human
capital are "invested" in the U.S. if one includes one's home, bank accounts and job which pays in U.S. dollars.
Regarding the existing list, I think it is important to analyze sector exposures within funds that performed in the last cycle and analyze how those sectors might perform in the next cycle. Yacktman for instance has long held exposure in consumer defensive or staples stocks such as Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Johnson & Johnson in addition recently to a large slug in Samsung. The question to ask is has anything changed in the commercial outlook for such steady-eddies? I would argue for instance a lot has changed for a company like Proctor & Gamble as thanks to the Internet the competitive landscape for purchases like razor blades and soap is different. The question then becomes is the money manager aware of these changes. in Yacktman's case, I think the answer is yes from my experience with them. Yet just because you're aware of significant changes in the mainstays of your portfolio, doesn't mean you have figured out what suitable replacements might be yet. That can be quite challenging. One can do a similar analysis with Prospector Opportunity, which has significant exposure to the financial services sector, albeit that sector has diversification within it in various sub-sectors.
Oil Stocks: 3 Bold Predictions for 2020
Top 4 Healthcare Mutual Funds for 2019 (and 2020!?) https://theentrepreneurfund.com/top-4-healthcare-mutual-funds-for-2019/Top 4 Healthcare Mutual Funds for 2019
While questions on the way forward for U.S. healthcare stay in play, healthcare shares proceed to have a optimistic outlook. Perhaps it is because the demand for well being companies continues to rise and most healthcare corporations are sitting on stability sheets flush with money and boasting sturdy financials.
All issues thought of, now is likely to be the suitable time to extend your publicity to the healthcare sector. Here is a have a look at a number of the healthcare mutual funds which have held up this yr, regardless of broad financial challenges.
Note: Funds have been chosen on the idea of year-to-date (YTD) efficiency and complete internet property. All figures have been present as of November 12, 2019.
We have vanguard healthcare etf, been very happy w them so far
Biggest bang for your buck: 8 equity funds with the best capture ratios over the entire market cycle Hi, simon.
I think you might be over-reading my original statement, or at least its intent. The argument is simply that many younger investors (or potential investors) are paralyzed by fear right now, and are struggling to imagine investments that aren't going to fail disastrously. My argument is simply that funds with low downside capture and high capture ratios might be one option for such folks to consider.
As for the "can't happen / sure to happen" debates, maybe. Which was sort of a theme in our January 2020 publisher's letter: the stock market is scary, it's always scary, make a sensible long-term plan and get with life.
David