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There is an awful lot to look at here in this PDF but I'd like to draw your attention in particular to the charts on page 61 showing investors retreating from the market (defined as the S&P 500) as the market marches higher and page 64 the 20 year returns by asset class. A few surprises in there for me.
Paints an interesting picture. -The negative volatility of stocks is very similar to bonds over a 5 year rolling average...negative 2% vs negative 1%...interesting. - An all bond portfolio performs equally well compared to a 50/50% (stock/bond) portfolio over a rolling 10 year average...very interesting - Over long rolling periods (20 years) stocks are 3 times more profitable and less risky than bonds. Or another way of looking at it, it would require only 33% funding in stocks to equal 100% funding in bonds to reach the same financial goal. Also, an all stock portfolio has a greater chance of earning a significantly higher "low end" long term return (6% vs 1%) vs an all bond portfolio over a 20 year rolling period.
Thought on Retirement strategies:
-Fund Long term (rolling 20 year needs) using a 100% stock portfolio, expect 8X on the initial investment. -Fund short term (1-5 year) retirement needs with 100% bonds -Fund mid term (rolling 5 years, rolling 10 years, rolling 15 years) retirement needs with a 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds. Might look like VWINX (40/60).
Page 62
At age 65, a husband and wife have a 90% that one will live to 80 years old and a 49% chance one will live to 90. Plan for 35 years of retirement withdrawals.
Fund age 65 - 70 withdrawal needs with an all bond portfolio. The likelihood that you will pull money from this portfolio at a loss is lower compared to the 100% equity portfolio and the 50/50 portfolio over this 5 year rolling period. The bond portfolio has a potential maximum loss of (-8%) verses (-15%) for the 50/50 portfolio and (-39%) for the all equity portfolio. Plan for these kinds of negative outcomes (sequence of return risks).
Funds for age 70 - 75 withdrawal needs (5-10 years away) might best be constructed as a balanced 50/50 portfolio. Weigh the risk / reward to ST/low duration bonds or cash like substitutes to the Total Bond Index to the Total Stock Index.
Fund age 75- 80 (10-15 years away) as well as Age 80-85 (15-20 years away) with: -100% equities which would add more downside risk (only -1%), as well as higher possible positive returns (19%) - 100% bonds portfolio or 50/50 portfolio provide almost identical returns variances with the 50/50 portfolio having slightly better downside risk. Neither of these two portfolios lost principal. Funding for worse case outcomes plan for the withdrawal amount to at least equal the investment amount.
Fund ages 85-100 withdrawal needs with an all equity portfolio. Determine each years Inflation adjusted withdrawals. Worse case scenario for an all stock portfolio over 20 years is a positive 6%. Fund for the kind of outcome. Fund this portfolio at 33% of the withdrawal need...for example if you will need $10K (in today's dollars) and (inflation adjusted @ 2% for 15 years), your total need would be about $350K for these 15 years of withdrawals, so one would need to fund 33% of $350K or $117K in today's dollars. $117K hopefully grow to at least $350K in 20 years in a buy and hold all equity portfolio.
Comments
Paints an interesting picture.
-The negative volatility of stocks is very similar to bonds over a 5 year rolling average...negative 2% vs negative 1%...interesting.
- An all bond portfolio performs equally well compared to a 50/50% (stock/bond) portfolio over a rolling 10 year average...very interesting
- Over long rolling periods (20 years) stocks are 3 times more profitable and less risky than bonds. Or another way of looking at it, it would require only 33% funding in stocks to equal 100% funding in bonds to reach the same financial goal. Also, an all stock portfolio has a greater chance of earning a significantly higher "low end" long term return (6% vs 1%) vs an all bond portfolio over a 20 year rolling period.
Thought on Retirement strategies:
-Fund Long term (rolling 20 year needs) using a 100% stock portfolio, expect 8X on the initial investment.
-Fund short term (1-5 year) retirement needs with 100% bonds
-Fund mid term (rolling 5 years, rolling 10 years, rolling 15 years) retirement needs with a 50/50 portfolio of stocks and bonds. Might look like VWINX (40/60).
Page 62
At age 65, a husband and wife have a 90% that one will live to 80 years old and a 49% chance one will live to 90. Plan for 35 years of retirement withdrawals.
Fund age 65 - 70 withdrawal needs with an all bond portfolio. The likelihood that you will pull money from this portfolio at a loss is lower compared to the 100% equity portfolio and the 50/50 portfolio over this 5 year rolling period. The bond portfolio has a potential maximum loss of (-8%) verses (-15%) for the 50/50 portfolio and (-39%) for the all equity portfolio. Plan for these kinds of negative outcomes (sequence of return risks).
Funds for age 70 - 75 withdrawal needs (5-10 years away) might best be constructed as a balanced 50/50 portfolio. Weigh the risk / reward to ST/low duration bonds or cash like substitutes to the Total Bond Index to the Total Stock Index.
Fund age 75- 80 (10-15 years away) as well as Age 80-85 (15-20 years away) with:
-100% equities which would add more downside risk (only -1%), as well as higher possible positive returns (19%)
- 100% bonds portfolio or 50/50 portfolio provide almost identical returns variances with the 50/50 portfolio having slightly better downside risk. Neither of these two portfolios lost principal. Funding for worse case outcomes plan for the withdrawal amount to at least equal the investment amount.
Fund ages 85-100 withdrawal needs with an all equity portfolio. Determine each years Inflation adjusted withdrawals. Worse case scenario for an all stock portfolio over 20 years is a positive 6%. Fund for the kind of outcome. Fund this portfolio at 33% of the withdrawal need...for example if you will need $10K (in today's dollars) and (inflation adjusted @ 2% for 15 years), your total need would be about $350K for these 15 years of withdrawals, so one would need to fund 33% of $350K or $117K in today's dollars. $117K hopefully grow to at least $350K in 20 years in a buy and hold all equity portfolio.