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Investment Thoughts January 2020

First time poster, greetings to all, posting some investment thoughts via stream of consciousness, all feedback welcome

I'm heavily invested in Dominion Energy Reliability Notes, paying 2.7% / $50k+ investments, you are lower on the capital structure here, full access to your funds at any time, no FDIC but backed by the financial strength of the company. Does anyone have any experience investing in these Notes or have additional input?

Following closely the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors...does anyone on that thread really trust/know what their funds are invested in? Even conservative funds with asset backed holdings rated highly by the rating agencies you have to wonder don't you? Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes. Driving up Sheridan Road in the affluent North Shore burbs of CHI seems every fifth McMansion is up for sale...and same homes been for sale seems like over two years...escape from taxes and/or many of those folks living in those expensive homes know we are in an epic asset bubble?

Heavily invested in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Berkshire - B (BRK/B), consider them a sort of "defacto", well managed, mutual funds without the fees. Follow Akre and Ackman via GuruFocus new holdings, have invested in Agilent (A) and Descartes Systems Group (DSGX). Heavily invested in Medtronic (MDT) and Teleflex (TFX), we're all getting older and looking for the repeal of the ridiculous Medical Device Tax (taxes profits not revenue, huh, who thought that was a good idea, companies thus cut jobs or sent solid paying jobs overseas).

Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance, "skimming off the top" with their management fees. ETFs are not for me, do like their low cost but too linked to herd behavior, what goes up must come down, no? I'm amazed by how many folks who invest in their 401Ks etc just follow what they are told by the "plan representatives" and have no idea how the markets work or what they are invested in.

Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above.

Comments?

Good investing to all,

B


Comments

  • Baseball_Fan: "Following closely the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors...does anyone on that thread really trust/know what their funds are invested in? Even conservative funds with asset backed holdings rated highly by the rating agencies you have to wonder don't you? Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes. Driving up Sheridan Road in the affluent North Shore burbs of CHI seems every fifth McMansion is up for sale...and same homes been for sale seems like over two years...escape from taxes and/or many of those folks living in those expensive homes know we are in an epic asset bubble?"

    B, I hope you get something out of the Bond OEF Investing for more Conservative Investors. I do believe you have to establish some trust in the fund managers of the bond oef fund you are considering, and you have to invest in a manner that fits your risk level. Most bond oef mutual funds have a huge number of assets, that are broken down into categories of bond funds--government, corporates, securitized assets, derivatives, HY and Foreign assets, etc. etc. You have to do extensive due diligence to understand the fund, but it is very difficult to have a level of detailed understanding you are looking for. My due diligence often is tied to looking at detailed analytical information available on the fund web site, in its annual and semiannual performance statements, in its prospectus, etc. but ultimately I like to look at the fund on Portfolio Visualizer, see visually its performance patterns, look at upside/dowside capture ratios, study standard deviation, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, look at Peak to Trough performance in downmarkets, etc. I try to form a strong impression of what to expect from a fund, and I have to form a lot of trust in the fund managers. You have to decide what works for you, and your fund understanding, but there is a lots of information out there to help determine if it fits your needs, and the role you want fulfilled by a given fund under consideration.

    Come visit me on the thread you mentioned, and you may find a host of other posters willing to give you some thoughts you may find worthwhile! Good luck and best wishes!
  • edited January 2020
    "Crazy how many high priced homes I see owned by folks who drive older beat up cars. Don't want to sound elitist but something tells me they are leveraged to the hilt which could spell trouble if interest rates/job market/economy changes."

    Maybe driving them beat up cars is what gives them the money to afford higher priced homes. It could also signal what they feel is a good use of available funds. Cars depreciate, homes (usually) not so much. I wouldn't read too much into it.
  • Mark "Not a fan of Mutual funds, no out performance"

    FD I'm a huge fan of Mutual funds. Buying stocks can be rewarding or spinning your wheels. Over the years my stock funds had better risk/reward than the market and my bond funds beat the indexes by a lot.
    Buffett recommends most people including his wife to use the SP500 index. FXAIX expense is extremely low at 0.015% and if you really want cheaper than that go for FZROX with zero expense.
    If you like single stocks then go for it. If I had to select single stocks I would definitely go for the biggest high tech companies. Over 4 decades they lead the stock market.

    ===================================

    Mark: "Investment style is "anti-fragile" ala Taleb. Majority % of investments in safe, very conservative investments (T-Bills, 5 year CDs), smaller % in DERI Dominion Notes and ~15-20% in handful of stocks mentioned above."

    FD: I'm definitely not in Taleb camp of a black swan. Many investors that believed in a black swan stayed out of the markets since 2008 while stocks+bonds had one of the best periods in the last 10 years.
    As a conservative investor, I never used CD and t-bills and very unlikely I will use them in the future since I can find better mutual funds like PIMIX,IOFIX and HY munis ORNAX,NHMAX,OPTAX which made me so much more. Just a year ago so many posters were falling all over themselves when they found MM and CD that paid 2.5% while my bond mutual funds made me easily over 10%.

    Finally, I wish you good luck with your endeavor.
  • edited January 2020
    Hi sir
    Sounds like you may like look at add l FBND or PFF

    My mom retires but she also have fidelity contrafund (along w fbnd) for quite sometimes now
  • edited January 2020
    Ah @FD1000, 'Mark' said none of that.
  • Blutarsky: Over? Did you say “over”? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
    Otter: Germans?
    Boon: Forget it, he’s rolling.
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