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politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
[and later ...]
Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
"Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
inflation-i-think-higher-threat-is-deflation/The author:
The mentality of inflation is tomorrow the price of a good will cost more so I will buy as much as I can of it today.
Deflation is the opposite. Deflation is more toxic than inflation. We saw deflation in the Great Depression. The mentality of deflation is that the price of a good will cost less tomorrow so I will wait to buy. In deflation, everyone sits on their hands. Investment goes into the basement and so does consumption.
and, a counter comment:
Friedman said, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. TVs becoming cheaper is a reflection of economies of scale, not a deflated dollar. Just like housing becoming more expensive is a reflection of decreased supply, not an inflated dollar. As long as the currency values are stable, then inflation/deflation is at bay.
I do think it's important to be concerned about the value of the currency right now.
The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
[and later ...]
Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
From: https://washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0.8 percent of U.S. deaths as of Apr. 18 were in people ages 25 to 34; 2 percent among those 35 to 44; and 5.4 percent among those 45 to 54.
https://nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.htmlYoung adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/boj-ramps-up-stimulus-with-pledge-for-unlimited-bond-buyingThe Bank of Japan.....promised to buy as many government bonds as needed and more than doubled its buying of corporate debt, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda tried to show the BOJ was pulling its weight in national efforts to support struggling factory owners, shopkeepers and consumers.
“If you look at what we’re doing from the size of our balance sheet against GDP to our measures compared to the size of the commercial paper and corporate bond markets, the scale of the Bank of Japan’s easing is far larger than any other central bank,” Kuroda said at the briefing.
...the BOJ can now make unlimited purchases at a time when record public spending will require new bond issuance to pay for it.
“Impressions matter in this kind of crisis. While the BOJ’s balance sheet is, of course, much bigger than its peers, the response to this kind of crisis is very important.” said Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities and a former BOJ official.
For a few months, I've been promising myself to make a post on being careful about what numbers do and don't represent (i.e. look behind the numbers). Figures like ERs, duration, performance. One of these days.I own PRIDX. ... It fell hard with coronavirus. But it's coming back, down -13% now, ytd. Down to 3 stars, but still with a silver decoration. ... Top 15% among peers, ytd. Not a great showing compared to peers LAST year, but still very good indeed.
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