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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.

    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words.
    Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
    politician? not really. As retiree that wants to make more without the volatility the numbers show it. If you don't understand how and what you do like most then just invest like most. Buy and Hold stocks and high rated bonds for ballast.
    You can see in 20 years black swan happened every 10 years.
    My thread was a proof of what I did, see (this)
    You can also see (this) and what I did, using trades.
    BTW, Today at 10 AM I sold all my stocks(all in QQQ) that I bought earlier in April and posted at M*. I'm not predicting it's the top, I sold sold because I made money the way I do by trading.
    But, you are not the first or last that tried to dismiss it :-) and it looks to me that every post I make you think it's your obligation to criticize.
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007766/f5097d1.htm
    (see link to see table of affected funds)
    The Board of Trustees of USAA Mutual Funds Trust has approved redesignating each Fund's current Adviser Shares as "Class A" shares ("Redesignation"). This change is expected to be effective on or about June 29, 2020 ("Redesignation Date").
    The total annual operating expense ratio of the Class A shares of each Fund will be no greater than that of the Adviser Shares on a net basis as a result of the same expense limitation agreement currently in place with respect to the Adviser Shares through at least June 30, 2021. Like Adviser Shares, Class A shares will be available for purchase through financial intermediaries and each Fund will pay ongoing distribution and/or service (12b-1) fees at annual rate of up to 0.25% of the average daily net assets of its Class A shares.
    However, Class A shares will be offered and sold at their public offering price, which is the net asset value per share plus any applicable initial sales charge, also referred to as a "front-end sales load." For purchases on or after the Redesignation Date, Class A Shares will be offered and sold with the imposition of a maximum initial sales charge of up to (i) 5.75% of the offering price for equity funds and (ii) 2.00% of the offering price for fixed income funds. The sales charge may be waived or reduced under certain circumstances to be described in a revised prospectus to be furnished to shareholders upon the Redesignation. In addition, a contingent deferred sales charge of up to 0.75% may be imposed on redemptions of Class A shares purchased without an initial sales charge if shares are redeemed within 18 months of purchase.
    The Redesignation will be made without the imposition of any sales loads, fees, or other charges to Adviser Shares held in shareholder accounts on the Redesignation Date. Any future purchases of Class A shares of the Fund will be subject to a front-end sales load unless such purchase qualifies for a sales charge waiver or reduction to be described in the revised prospectus. The Redesignation will not be considered a taxable event for federal income tax purposes.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR YOUR FUTURE REFERENCE.
    Victory Capital means Victory Capital Management Inc., the investment manager of the USAA Mutual Funds. USAA Mutual Funds are distributed by Victory Capital Advisers, Inc., a broker dealer registered with FINRA and an affiliate of Victory Capital. Victory Capital and its affiliates are not affiliated with United Services Automobile Association or its affiliates. USAA and the USAA logos are registered trademarks and the USAA Mutual Funds and USAA Investments logos are trademarks of United Services Automobile Association and are being used by Victory Capital and its affiliates under license.
    Here is the link for the new prospectus:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908695/000168386320007758/f4863d2.htm
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    @MikeM, I hold a good slug of it in my taxable account and a little slug in my self directed IRA. There are a couple of reasons that I'm holding off until CTFAX makes it June distribution. One, I feel as though I'd be buying the distribution as it, for the most part, has already been made through its investment activity. Two, I have a CD that matures towards the end of May that I will be using some of the CD money to make this purchase. And, three, I want to keep my cost basis in the fund as low as possible (return on invested capital). Some funds (owned for years) have paid out more than enough to cover my cost of buying them. I'm thinking that the June distribution will be a sizeable one. Possibly, double (or more than) what it normally makes. Skeet
  • Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
    I expect that there will be more dividend payers who will do likewise. First cut in 80 years. "RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell Thursday cut its dividend for the first time since 1945, reducing it by 66% to 16 cents a share after first-quarter profit fell by nearly half. The company warned that the pandemic's impact would be more severe in the second quarter." (Emphasis mine)
    Shell slashes dividend as earnings sink
  • Get Ready for the Return of Inflation Fed actions have increased...money...at a blistering rate
    Getting back to inflation... this article worries more about deflation in the near term:
    The author:
    The mentality of inflation is tomorrow the price of a good will cost more so I will buy as much as I can of it today.
    Deflation is the opposite. Deflation is more toxic than inflation. We saw deflation in the Great Depression. The mentality of deflation is that the price of a good will cost less tomorrow so I will wait to buy. In deflation, everyone sits on their hands. Investment goes into the basement and so does consumption.
    and, a counter comment:
    Friedman said, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. TVs becoming cheaper is a reflection of economies of scale, not a deflated dollar. Just like housing becoming more expensive is a reflection of decreased supply, not an inflated dollar. As long as the currency values are stable, then inflation/deflation is at bay.
    I do think it's important to be concerned about the value of the currency right now.
    inflation-i-think-higher-threat-is-deflation/
  • QCD Rollover?
    I think the hangup is on the term "rollover". The CARES Act allows a "re-contribution" of funds withdrawn from an IRA before the 2020 RMD requirement was suspended. As I see it, I'm getting a "do over" to bring my IRA balance back to what it was before the withdrawal. I do agree that the source of the "re-contribution" is not the recipient of the QCD. I'll cross my fingers and keep you posted.
  • Municipal bonds perspectives- Where do We Go From Here

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340466-municipal-bond-perspective-where-go-from
    /where do We Go From Here
    Given the financial strength of the sector, we believe airports have the requisite resources to weather a decline in air travel over the next several months.
    If investment markets do not recover from recent declines before fiscal year-end (mostly June 30), schools will see significant investment losses in fiscal year 2020.
    We expect that sales taxes and income taxes will experience immediate shocks as a result of social distancing and demand-side pressures.
    As the COVID-19 pandemic evolved during the first quarter, the municipal bond market experienced one of its most volatile periods in years. Here, the Franklin Municipal Bond Department shares how they plan to navigate the market, which they think is likely to show signs of distress and elevated volatility for some time
    elieve levels of municipal market volatility are likely to remain elevated over the next few months, and potentially longer. However, our seasoned team of analysts and portfolio managers have experienced difficult market periods in the past, and we are using that collective knowledge to navigate through this panic as well./
    many municipals may end up bankrupted by late/summer fall unless market do rebounds and folks are less worried/install more monies into system/buying more. I think we are slowly getting there. The vanguard advisors that we talked to still recommends balance holdings of different products/vehicles and perhaps may lessen risks just in case another crash /W form recovery takes place
    we are still holding to our munis and corp porfolios, have not buy nor added recently.
    We did have one bond near bankruptcy past few weeks but we are still holding on since it did slightly recovered recently [RIG oil platforms]
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
    [and later ...]
    Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.
    The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
    Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words. Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
    All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
    VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
    SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
    These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
    "Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
    https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    Here is a little more info:
    In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0.8 percent of U.S. deaths as of Apr. 18 were in people ages 25 to 34; 2 percent among those 35 to 44; and 5.4 percent among those 45 to 54.
    From: https://washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
    Also, there seems to be a fairly strong link between having a severe case of Covid-19 and being obese among young people:
    Young adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.
    https://nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html
  • For those who believe Covid will not affect the young
    I said it. It's pretty easy to conclude based on the numbers and people I know who have had it.
    According to the Mass. DPH website: Average age of those hospitalized is 69. Average age of those who have died, 82. To date, the rate of deaths for those 40 years of age and younger is 4 out of 100,000 people. So yes, it affects older people with pre-existing conditions at much greater rate. It's startling, really. Again, this number of saying "young" people, under 60, is ridiculous.
    https://mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-29-2020/download
  • Bottom Line Personal ... May 1, 2020 edition
    Featured in the May edition of Bottom Line Personal ... MFO's David Snowball picks the following funds for lower volatility in rocky times. They are Arke Focus (AKREX) ... Bruce Fund (BRUFX) ... and, Wellesley Income (VWINX).
  • Little features of brokerages that may matter
    There are many different features that lead someone to prefer one financial institution over another. I came up with a number of relatively minor features that I personally place some value in. Haven't found a single perfect institution though. YMMV.
    - individual 401(k): free, Roth option, in-service distributions, investment options (full brokerage or house funds). See The College Investor for other features and major providers. Some brokerages provide Roth options; Fidelity and Schwab do not. Vanguard and T. Rowe Price do provide a Roth option, but limit investments to house funds.
    - Retail HSA account (not through employer): free, no min cash balance required to invest. Fidelity is the only brokerage I know of that offers HSA accounts directly. Lively (an HSA provider) gives you a brokerage window to TD Ameritrade. See The HSA Report Card for detailed analyses of HSA providers.
    - Cash management (bank) services: bill pay, checking, good interest (relatively speaking), ATM access. Vanguard has high interest and checking, but no bill pay or ATM card. At Vanguard and Fidelity, if your core account does not have enough cash to cover a check, they can automatically draw from another (higher yielding) MMF. Many brokerages other than Vanguard provide bill pay and ATM access with surcharge rebates. These features are not so important if you employ a regular bank account.
    Schwab's ATM card charges no foreign (international) transaction fee; Fidelity's sometimes charges a 1% fee. Others tend to charge at least this much and may limit surcharge rebates to US ATMs.
    - Fractional share purchases of stocks/ETFs (e.g. $100 exactly of MINT). This is something Schwab promised. AFAIK only Fidelity has delivered. (Robinhood rolled out fractional shares earlier this month but it doesn't support limit orders.) Fractional shares is the only "yet to use" feature on my list. It should make buying ETFs easier - more like mutual funds.
    - Donor advised funds:low min to open, low grant min, low maintenance cost, low cost funds, wide variety of funds. T. Rowe Price seems to have the lowest "all in" (admin + fund expenses) cost for actively managed funds, but not lowest if using index funds. Fidelity and Schwab have the lowest mins and are low cost. Fidelity has a small advantage on fund costs and variety of funds. Not that one needs many funds for this type of account. It's convenient if the DAF account is with your brokerage as that makes contributing easier.
    This list of 74 DAFs is about a decade old, but still gives a good sense of costs and what's out there.
  • U.S. Global Investors Fund's Holmes Macro Trends Fund changing name
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101507/000143510920000104/usgi_497e.htm
    497 1 usgi_497e.htm
    U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS FUNDS
    Holmes Macro Trends Fund (the “Fund”)
    Investor Class Shares
    Supplement dated April 28, 2020, to the Prospectus dated May 1, 2019, as supplemented
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE FUND’S NAME, INVESTMENT STRATEGIES AND PRIMARY BENCHMARK INDEX
    At the March 27, 2020 meeting of the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of U.S. Global Investors Funds, the Board approved, at the recommendation of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., the investment adviser to the Fund (“Adviser”), changes to the Fund’s name, investment strategies, and primary benchmark index, in order to highlight a focus on luxury goods-related investments.
    These changes, which were summarized in a supplement to the Fund’s prospectus dated March 31, 2020, and which were expected to become effective on May 1, 2020, have been postponed pending the resolution of regulatory considerations, and will not be implemented until further notice is made to shareholders.
    * * *
    For more information, please contact a Fund customer service representative toll free at
    1-800-873-8637.
    PLEASE RETAIN FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Good morning. As I write, stocks are set to add to Monday's gains as the futures are up across the board both here in the States and abroad. As stocks have moved upward the VIX has been in decline and now resides in the low to mid 30's. In addition, Treasury yields now seem to be slowly rising. I'm thinking to support this upward move, in the stock market, earnings are going to have to be reflected in the $150 (or better) range for the S&P 500 Index to trade and hold the 3,000+ range mark. The Index has now regained more lost ground and it is well above of where I thought we would currently now be ... and ... on through most of the summer.
  • Seafarer Growth and Income fund
    Portfolio Review - First Quarter 2020 is out. The outlook section might be of interest to some. Although Andrew does mention: my warning is not worth the time you took to read it. Paul Espinosa is also a portfolio manager but I am assuming that Andrew wrote the review (just a hunch).
    http://www.seafarerfunds.com/funds/ogi/portfolio-review
  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    This article provides another example of the global trend among central banks and how psychology can impact the policy shift decision and size of a response.....
    The Bank of Japan.....promised to buy as many government bonds as needed and more than doubled its buying of corporate debt, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda tried to show the BOJ was pulling its weight in national efforts to support struggling factory owners, shopkeepers and consumers.
    “If you look at what we’re doing from the size of our balance sheet against GDP to our measures compared to the size of the commercial paper and corporate bond markets, the scale of the Bank of Japan’s easing is far larger than any other central bank,” Kuroda said at the briefing.
    ...the BOJ can now make unlimited purchases at a time when record public spending will require new bond issuance to pay for it.
    “Impressions matter in this kind of crisis. While the BOJ’s balance sheet is, of course, much bigger than its peers, the response to this kind of crisis is very important.” said Masamichi Adachi, chief Japan economist at UBS Securities and a former BOJ official.
    https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-27/boj-ramps-up-stimulus-with-pledge-for-unlimited-bond-buying
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Global stocks gain as investors look to lockdown easing.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/shares-gain-as-investors-look-to-lockdown-easing-idUSKCN22900Z?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
    U.S. stock index futures gained late Sunday, ahead of earnings reports this week from some of America's biggest companies.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-retreat-ahead-of-big-earnings-week-2020-04-26
    Looks like it's going to be a good stock day in the markets today as stock futures are up across the board both here and abroad. Let's also see if high yield bonds move upward with their stock cousins. I'm beleiving they will. This indeed could turn into a strong up day (and week) for some investors especially if the shorts start to cover. As I write the VIX is in the mid 30's. If today is a strong rally day for stocks I look for the VIX to continue its decline. On March 20th I recordered the VIX with a reading of 62 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2305. Friday, I recorded the VIX with a reading of 37 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2837. As the VIX moves lower stocks trend to move higher. Should we have a strong up week in the stock market (say a 5% gain) then this will put the S&P 500 Index just below the 3,000 mark at 2980 range. For this to happen earnings, for the S&P 500 Index, will need to get marked to the $150.00 range. And, this could indeed happen. As President Trump says ... "We'll see!"
    The Futures are linked below.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    I own PRIDX. ... It fell hard with coronavirus. But it's coming back, down -13% now, ytd. Down to 3 stars, but still with a silver decoration. ... Top 15% among peers, ytd. Not a great showing compared to peers LAST year, but still very good indeed.
    For a few months, I've been promising myself to make a post on being careful about what numbers do and don't represent (i.e. look behind the numbers). Figures like ERs, duration, performance. One of these days.
    Meanwhile, to deconstruct these numbers and ratings a bit:
    PRIDX outperformed both its benchmark and its category 2019 Q4, 2020 Q1 and YTD, so while it fell hard with coronavirus, on a relative basis it performed admirably. It's the whole market that has come back (to some extent), and PRIDX has more or less just kept up its rate of outperformance.
    So why the 3 stars? M* continues to rate its risk as below average (as of March 31) for 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years. Also as of March 31, M* rates 3/5/10 year performance as average, above average, average.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PRIDX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Generally, above average return with below average risk gets a fund into, or close to a 4 star rating. Thus, as of March 31, PRIDX was rated 4 stars for the five year period (above average performance), but 3 stars for the three and ten year periods.
    The overall star rating is a weighted average: 3 years (20%), 5 years (30%), and 10 years (50%). So PRIDX gets 3 stars.
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/771945_Morningstar_Rating_for_Funds_Methodology.pdf
    Now take a look at the 3/5/10 performance figures. To be rated above average, a fund must be in the top 32.5% of its category (but not in the top 10%).
    PRIDX came close to above average performance, but didn't make it over 3 years (38th percentile) or 10 years (33rd percentile). Shift that 10 year performance a little and the 10 year star rating should move up to 4 stars, bringing the overall weighted average rating also up to four stars.
    It looks like this has happened. Take performance rankings through today (April 26). 10 year moves up to 27th percentile, 5 year drops slightly from 14th to 17th percentile, and 3 year moves up to 29th percentile. All above average performances.
    So one should expect the star rating to move back to 4 stars when it's recalculated unless the fund stumbles in the interim.
    All of this goes to show that even when looking at long term performance, what a fund has done lately can have a significant impact.
    The poor showing last year? Over the whole year it underperformed its category by 3.18% where the average gain was 27.78%. Not a great showing, but not as bad as its 71st percentile would superficially suggest. Also, it never had a really bad quarter; it just chugged along, trailing by as much as 1.18% in Q3 and as little as 0.25% in Q4. Not great, but fairly consistent and nothing obvious to get concerned about.