One stunning chart shows how severe this selloff has been: Morning Brief

davfor

And one chart from Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Sløk shows just how severe this decline has been and makes clear to investors that the coronavirus selloff doesn’t just feel like a unique market event — this time really is different.

This is an impressive chart. My sense is rich valuations linked hands with uncertainty about the virus to produce this outcome. It will probably take a few weeks for a clear understanding of the situation to emerge. In the meantime, I suspect the Fed will lower the discount rate to try to moderate the pain. But, how much good will that do in the short term if it turns out people are afraid to get on a plane or go to the grocery store? Maybe Amazon and MMM will prosper! Anyway, here is a link to the short article.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-selloff-chart-magnitude-morning-brief-105856893.html

Mark

Very interesting.

How is Amazon going to get orders delivered if all the delivery people stay home?

Sven

But, how much good will that do in the short term if it turns out people are afraid to get on a plane or go to the grocery store?

To stop spreading the virus China they lock down the entire city and it slows the spread somewhat. Cannot image this can be done in a democratic society of large cities in US or Europe.

Puddnhead

Hi davfor,
I got 46. But what happened in 55 to be so high?
God bless
the Pudd

davfor

@Puddnhead Eisenhower had a heart attack on 9/24/55. (I was a military brat living near Washington D.C. at that time and vaguely remember that happening.) On Monday 9/26/55 the market dropped 6.5%. My assumption is it dropped far enough further during the next several days to achieve that 10%+ distinction.

Mark

Re: 1955 Found this

Crossing Wall Street

MikeW

Interesting..thx for sharing. Certainly doesnt help when his tweetness says its all a hoax.

davfor

Here is a chart that compares the largest one week S&P 500 declines. The recent decline was impressive based on that metric too:



Here is a link to the related Rekentahler Report article:

https://morningstar.com/articles/969893/the-coronavirus-column

msf

Sven said:

To stop spreading the virus China they lock down the entire city and it slows the spread somewhat. Cannot image this can be done in a democratic society of large cities in US or Europe.

Lockdowns may not work and may even be counterproductive.

You can't put a ban in place before there's a reason to put a ban in place. And by then, it's too late. What's more ... people will try to sneak out of the city.

... That can make it much harder to track potential cases and contact, which is one of the most effective ways to contain this outbreak.

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/25/799470705/a-travel-ban-to-contain-the-coronavirus-could-worsen-conditions-in-wuhan

Not large cities, but Italy has been quarantining several smaller northern towns.

A dozen towns ... were put in lockdown (and were made so-called “red zones” and quarantined) just over a week ago as the Italian government under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte sought to halt the spread. The measures are due to be in place until at least March 8.

There are other “yellow zones” in Italy where schools are closed, and sports events and religious and cultural spaces have been postponed or canceled.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-next-seven-days-seen-as-decisive-for-italy.html

msf

Mark said:

How is Amazon going to get orders delivered if all the delivery people stay home?

Drones? According to Amazon’s consumer worldwide CEO Jeff Wilke last June: “You’re going to see it delivering packages to customers in a matter of months.”

https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/5/18654044/amazon-prime-air-delivery-drone-new-design-safety-transforming-flight-video

sma3

very concise article about WHO study of China and it's lockdowns. They sent 10000 epidemiologists/ case trackers to Wuhan in a few days

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

msf

Nice piece.

A virtue of slowing the spread, even if as many as 70% of the population are ultimately infected is that the peak is lower. That lessens the strain on the healthcare system (insufficient number of doctors, labs, material, hospital beds, etc.)