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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best websites for tracking portfolios?
    I use Personal Capital. Easy and free to setup by linking disparate accounts to the app.
  • Can the individual investor beat the machines & more
    thankyou Derf - Appreciate your linkage
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/algorithms-sped-up-selling-leading-to-the-fastest-bear-market-in-stock-market-history-2020-03-26
    /Opinion: Algorithms sped up selling, leading to the fastest bear market in stock market
    By Beth Kindig
    The selling of stocks accelerated this month, leaving Americans with less wealth to scramble for cash/
  • Schwab market Commentary- Making Sense of Recent Bond Market Turmoil
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/making-sense-recent-bond-market-turmoil-0
    /Making Sense of Recent Bond Market Turmoil
    By Kathy Jones
    The recent volatility in the bond market has been unprecedented. Over the course of just two weeks, long-term Treasury yields fell one full percentage point to record lows, while yields for nearly every other type of bond spiked sharply higher/
    Article discuss recent market conditions/summary along with several directions Investors may choose heading forward to reduce risks and reap markets gains
  • CARES ACT, allows penalty free withdraws up to $100k from 401K, 403B accts.
    I hope folks do not become forced into, or think they should "anyway", pull these monies.
    ***Presumption house will pass this legislation on Friday.
    CARES ACT article with internal links
    Take care of you and yours,
    Catch
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    From a M* article posted today--
    The most vulnerable strategies in the current environment have been flashing red well in advance. For example, AlphaCentric Income Opportunities (IOFIX), a multisector bond fund that has invested the majority of its assets in mezzanine subprime MBS, has experienced heavy redemptions in recent weeks. Given that the portfolio was roughly 95% invested in nonagency residential mortgage credit, it’s highly unlikely the managers were able to raise cash to meet those redemptions without locking in losses in the current environment. The fund has erased more than 40% of its value for its shareholders since the beginning of March, with most of those losses coming in the last several trading days.
    But that fund’s highly aggressive approach already made it an outlier relative to competitors in the multisector bond category, which is home to funds with a greater appetite for credit-sensitive sectors. Its portfolio chock-full of subordinated mortgage credit avoided by other fund managers, its indeterminate credit quality profile (most of the fund’s holdings were nonrated), and absence of high-quality holdings to provide liquidity should have raised concerns for any investor. The fund’s chart-topping returns in recent years--its trailing three-year annualized return of 10.4% through February 2020 outpaced its next closest competitors’ by a full 300 basis points--should have also raised questions about the risks its managers were taking to achieve those results.
  • brief market news
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-march-26-2020-221723808.html
    Good morning,
    Market very confusing still: unemployment numbers shatter previous records, multiple deaths remain high with COVID19, many more infected/many more counting and still remain critically ill. Hot spots open up in several countries.
    Dows still up today after all those news, think bottom maybe when Dows at 18750s levels last wk?
    maybe good to tiptoe in, DCA and watch closely.
  • The Fed Goes Nuclear
    Powell is appearing on mainstream media providing reassurance the public. Here is a little detail:
    Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve would provide essentially unlimited lending to support the economy as long as it is damaged by the viral outbreak.
    The economic rescue bill approved by the Senate early Thursday includes $425 billion that the Treasury could use to backstop the Fed. That would allow the Fed to boost its lending programs to an astronomical $4.25 trillion.
    “Wherever ... credit is not flowing, we have the ability in these unique circumstances to temporarily step in and provide those loans and we will keep doing that, aggressively and forthrightly," Powell said.
    When asked if the Fed would run out of ammunition to support the economy, Powell said no.
    https://marketbeat.com/articles/fed-chair-powell-says-will-provide-nearly-unlimited-lending-2020-03-26/
  • Negative rates come to the US: 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields are now below zero
    In case you missed it...
    The one-month and three-month Treasury bill yields turned negative Wednesday.
    “This is part and parcel of the whole flight to quality thing,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics.
    “Everyone is expecting the Fed to be lower for longer, and I mean longer. The whole bias is for yields to go lower. I would not rule out the front end of the curve going negative.”
    https://cnbc.com/2020/03/25/negative-rates-come-to-the-us-1-month-and-3-month-treasury-bill-yields-are-now-negative.html
  • TRP Floating Rate - Risk vs Reward
    Take a look at the historical returns for high yield and floating rate funds in 2008 and 2009. Most of them lost big in 2008 but had huge gains in 2009, in some cases as much as stock funds. However, there are no guarantees that history will repeat for stocks or bonds.
    In a somewhat related matter, muni bond funds and high yield munis also lost big recently (and in 2008). Muni funds had huge increases today — 3-5% — which is unheard of for munis. Personally I think most of the recent bond fund drops were due to liquidity issues from traders selling bonds, after stocks dropped so much, and overwhelming the markets.
  • Treat with caution: rocketing stocks aren't cause for comfort
    Hi Sir @_Old_Joe, I am always wrong in terms of market timing, hope to stay that way. We are indeed 4-6 weeks behind China, so hopefully by next month, warmer weather at least in Southern States/less virus transmissions, things maybe more Rosy. I read 85% of structures very similar to SARS, may not to do well in warmer weather/viral loads significantly reduced and unable to stay around in hot /sunny surface much longer. Hope this horrific virus go away in few months. Of course few patients with immuno-compromised states may still get problems even in [summer flu]. Hope curve significantly flattened soon.
    Interesting article about current market conditions from marketwatch:
    Stock market’s historic bounce may signal ‘near-term bottom,’ but remember what happened in 1987 and 2008
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-historic-bounce-may-signal-near-term-bottom-but-a-retest-of-the-low-like-1987-and-2008-is-still-a-possibility-2020-03-25?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
  • TRP Floating Rate - Risk vs Reward
    @Tarwheel. You have officially proved I'm an idiot. I did bloody read, BUT I never read properly. maybe because I read it on my phone. The "Risks" and "Rewards" sections are flipped on TRP website but "Rewards" are in left column. I never read the right column else I would never have invested in this fund. Like I mentioned it's for my MIL who's 80 years old.
    Straight from TRP website.
    The floating-rate feature virtually eliminates interest rate risk.
    Bank loans typically rank higher in the capital structure for repayment.
    Low historical return correlations with other asset classes, including high-yield bonds, make bank loans a diversifier for equity and fixed-income portfolios.

    ... AND ...
    The loans and debt securities held by the fund are usually considered speculative and involve a greater risk of default and price decline than higher-rated bonds.
    This fund could have greater price declines than a fund that invests primarily in high-quality bonds or loans.

    The ones highlighted line led me to believe the fund was invested in government securities only. Next time I see "interest rate risk" I'll know better.
    I dunno why I assumed "floating rate" with safety. Thinking I will make 0.1% when rates were very low and about 3% when rates were about that. Then again, I somehow don't believe I'm the only one who's stupid. I can't imagine why any sane person would invest in floating rate funds. The risk/reward is simply not there and simply plotting say PBDIX against FFHRX shows that. "Diversification" like this I don't need.
  • David Sherman's updates (and offer) on RiverPark Short Term High Yield
    Hi David, You noted:
    Long-Term Treasuries have both returned more in four weeks than they normally would in an entire year.

    Chart, SP500, TLT, EDV, ZROZ starting Nov. 4, 2009 (limited by fund inception date) through March 24, 2020.
    TLT, EDV, ZROZ returns chart , Jan. 2 -March 9, 2020. March 9 is the initial date when Treasury issues began to be "non-normal" in pricing relative to the whack down in the equity markets.
    QQQ versus EDV crossover points. One may drag and slide the 3,090 day line at the bottom area of the chart, from the left (oldest date) to the right towards the current date to find many other crossover points. EDV and QQQ generally perform inverse to one another.
    Ok, away to listen to Bolero and then meditate.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • David Sherman's updates (and offer) on RiverPark Short Term High Yield
    All I want now is people stop calling RPHYX as a proxy for "cash". And then "interpret" it. It's like any other fund you invest in which holds bonds.
    Serves me right for trying to grow a brain and invest in bond funds. I never did it pre-financial crisis. Now I know I should never have. Going forward I never will. Really have to rethink my FPNIX investment as well.
    I think someone has said investing in bonds is harder than investing in stocks. No kidding! Perhaps it's also because stocks can be manipulated easily by news or otherwise than bonds. Or maybe I'm wrong there as well. In any case, no more 007s in my life. I'll stick to balanced funds at best. At least I know my tax loss candidates for 2020 since hindsight is now also 20-20. Hah!
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    I have not lost confidence in ARTGX or TBGVX-YAFIX I'd like to replace them with similar as temporary parking place to harvest the losses - ( i am still working - at least I hope so !) DDVIX ( value) and LCEYX dividend - both under performed before the deep dive, but I held on - not wanting to take the gains . All advice wellcome !
  • PIMCO CEF Update | It's 2008 Redux
    Relax, breathe easy for now at least for today. By Alpha General Capital at Seeking Alpha
    Summary
    ° The PIMCO UNII report showed some modest progress on coverage and UNII levels.
    ° Obviously, the traditional looks at this report are less important given what is happening in the markets and with these funds specifically.
    ° We expect distributions to be maintained in most of the taxable bond CEFs from PIMCO and that the muni funds are investable for the first time in years.
    ° Most funds earned their distribution in the month according to NII production with small shortfalls in the others. Nothing concerning.
    The Report
  • TRP Floating Rate - Risk vs Reward
    You may want to checked again on TRP website. YTD as of 3/20/2020 is -17.2% ! Floating rate bonds are BBB and below rated bonds, i.e. junk bonds. Junk bonds move in the same direction as equities, thus has no downside protection.
  • The Fed Goes Nuclear
    Here is an article that discusses some of the reasons the Powell Put Act 2 announcement on Monday may turn out to have been significant....
    Powell’s message is that the Fed’s support for U.S. business is unlimited, “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning,” as a Fed statement Monday put it. His basic rationale is simple: Nobody caused this crisis, and nobody is to blame. The government-ordered lockdown affects every company and worker, and the government should protect people until the crisis eases. Any other concern is secondary.
    https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/24/one-institution-washington-is-working-fed/
  • Future of financial markets from Fidelity
    Jurrien Timmer is the director of global macro in Fidelity's Global Asset Allocation Division, specializing in global macro strategy and active asset allocation. In this article, he presented a balanced analysis on the future direction of the global market.
    Key takeaways
    The big questions are when will the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases peak and will the fiscal and monetary policy response be enough?
    The significant drop in the stock market has been made significantly worse by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as forced deleveraging and a soaring dollar.
    Earnings estimates for the next few quarters tumbled last week, and will likely fall further in the coming weeks.
    While further US stock market declines are quite possible or even likely, my technical work suggests that the momentum of this decline may diminish in the weeks ahead.
    https://fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/markets-sectors/stock-market-drops-2020
  • The new coronavirus economy: A gigantic experiment reshaping how we work and live (OEF Ideas?)
    This article takes a general look at the ways in which the current crisis may reshape our economy. It got me to thinking about OEF's that may adapt well if the economy does change significantly moving forward. I know its early on in this crisis situation, but its worth thinking about. Looking at my existing portfolio, it seems to me these stock funds may prove to be good adapters: AKREX, FBSOX, PGIRX, BGSAX, and APFDX (I bought a little more APFDX on Monday). Any thoughts about other stock funds that may do likewise?
    Here are some excerpts from the article and the link:
    “It’s amazing how slowly habits change, where people get stuck in the ruts of doing things, and then you have a shock like this that can change everything,” said Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy. “It forces people to overcome the switching costs, figure out something new and say, ‘Hey, this is way better.’ ”
    “This is an inflection point, and we’re going to look back and realize this is where it all changed,” Jared Spataro, a Microsoft executive, said in an online news briefing. “We’re never going to go back to working the way that we did.”
    On the other hand.....
    Carnegie Mellon economics professor Lee Branstetter said his first attempts at teaching students online convinced him that although there is some opportunity for efficiencies, the old-fashioned classroom experience offers much more. He expects other forays into living and working online will convince many to return to routine human contact once they can.
    “What I’m appreciating is just how much we lose when we go online,” Branstetter said.
    Once the crisis is over, he added, “People are going to be so sick and tired of takeout.”
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/21/economy-change-lifestyle-coronavirus/
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    @Graust, not sure what you were looking at. As of yesterday's close, IOFIX was down over -34% for 1Y, and even through Friday's close it was about -25%.
    @BenWP, I get the joke, but maybe you could use another analogy given SA's horrendous record of racehorse deaths? I'd hate to think that our investments could go down for the count at any time.
    @franktrdr, I read that article on SA, and others describing the mayhem in the FI markets. I believe the author may have been mistaken about CEF NAVs. AFAIK, they are still only published weekly. M* shows a daily as of date, but in the cases of the CEFs I hold, the manager's website only updates weekly and the value on M* only changes weekly. I'm not certain as to whether or not there are any other sources which are updated more frequently.
    In all my days, and I'm talking pre-1987 crash by more than a decade, I've never seen anything like this environment, and, I can also say that I've never seen a fund with a perfect '100' scorecard across all linked time-periods on M*, as is the situation for this fund. 'Never say never'.
    To try and figure out whether this fund is ever worth going back into, much less now when things are so crazy that, e.g. Vanguard's Muni MM has a 7-day yield of 3%!!!!, Charles is absolutely right, things need to settle down, and then I'd look for funds that maybe weren't so great on the way up, but didn't kill you on the way down.
    One final comment on the TLT price breaks vs. NAV. USTs are the Gold Standard for collateral, repos, derivatives, etc., so when things start to unwind, and counter-parties can't make payments, they can lose the bonds and the new holders may be very eager to liquidate because they don't want the interest rate risk (in addition to whatever else is on their balance sheets). Hence, fire sales abound. There was also a story last week about a CME clearing firm (Ronin Capital) that went belly up (dealer-to-dealer) and whose assets had to be auctioned off.
    Be careful out there!