The new coronavirus economy: A gigantic experiment reshaping how we work and live (OEF Ideas?)

davfor

This article takes a general look at the ways in which the current crisis may reshape our economy. It got me to thinking about OEF's that may adapt well if the economy does change significantly moving forward. I know its early on in this crisis situation, but its worth thinking about. Looking at my existing portfolio, it seems to me these stock funds may prove to be good adapters: AKREX, FBSOX, PGIRX, BGSAX, and APFDX (I bought a little more APFDX on Monday). Any thoughts about other stock funds that may do likewise?

Here are some excerpts from the article and the link:

“It’s amazing how slowly habits change, where people get stuck in the ruts of doing things, and then you have a shock like this that can change everything,” said Erik Brynjolfsson, director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy. “It forces people to overcome the switching costs, figure out something new and say, ‘Hey, this is way better.’ ”

“This is an inflection point, and we’re going to look back and realize this is where it all changed,” Jared Spataro, a Microsoft executive, said in an online news briefing. “We’re never going to go back to working the way that we did.”

On the other hand.....

Carnegie Mellon economics professor Lee Branstetter said his first attempts at teaching students online convinced him that although there is some opportunity for efficiencies, the old-fashioned classroom experience offers much more. He expects other forays into living and working online will convince many to return to routine human contact once they can.

“What I’m appreciating is just how much we lose when we go online,” Branstetter said.

Once the crisis is over, he added, “People are going to be so sick and tired of takeout.”

https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/21/economy-change-lifestyle-coronavirus/

Crash

Those thoughts make sense to me. It seems to me that utilities are more and more changing gears and going solar, as much as they can, even up North. Wind and hydro, too. I just looked at a bunch of utility OEFs served up as the best by US News, but most carry loads. Forget THAT. Here's one: from Vanguard. Tonight, it's down YTD by 20% and change. VUIAX.

catch22

@Crash FSUTX 10 year annualized return at 12.2%. Shown at the top of the US News list; although I treat their list as something to review for thoughts, so I can't comment about the ranking.
Why not FSUTX? Hell, with Fido; if it matters, minimum investment is $0. No load for such.
How many on the list are load funds; as I didn't scroll the whole list?
Good Evening,
Catch

catch22

Hi davfor, Thanks.
Yup, may be some big changes in societal habits. @rono and others have expressed this opinion that revolves in your post.

WABAC

I want to get through the bar-room brawl of corporate debt before I start thinking about the way the world looks after corona.

I'ld like to think about how the world economy works without every part of the world economy on a central bank ventilator before I evaluate the world after corona.

Because those things were staring us in the face before corona hit.

We are going to figure out a way around corona. I'm not sure it's so easy to get off the central bank fire hose.

Crash

@Catch22 Hello. I just looked at FSUTX. Appears to me that the dividends are all over the place. April and Dec. are the pattern, ok. But one had been missed, back there. I like more predictable dividends... Here's a question: more folks are going solar, which by law---so I understand--- means that if those homes generate more than they use, then the local utility must REFUND the difference. Maybe that goes differently, State to State. But the vast majority will always be hooked up to some Utility. Some cities still have their own municipal power. So, the utilities were never in danger, as a group, because of any added, surprise RISK suddenly arriving on the scene during the current craziness. Why would utility funds like FSUTX have dropped over 20% YTD?

WABAC

Crash said:

@Catch22 Why would utility funds like FSUTX have dropped over 20% YTD?

PE ratios were high by historical standards. Prices were bid up because almost everyone was looking for "safety" and yield.

Then, when the poop hit the windmill, almost everyone started selling almost everything. Fidelity Med Tech & Devices (FSMEX) is also down a little over 20% so far. And I have to figure the world is burning through the things the constituent companies are selling at a prodigious rate lately.

BTW. Solar laws vary quite a bit state-to-state. The situation you describe is not the way it works in the Phoenix metro. I won't get into all the argle-bargle because I haven't lived here long enough to figure it out myself. But I do know it pert-near killed the solar installation industry shortly before we moved here. Just trying to figure it out on our utility website was enough to make us skip any consideration of getting solar.

Sven

Not just utility are expensive by historical PE; the entire S&P 500 was traded high before the COVID-19 strike. Perhaps now the valuation is more reasonable.

Solar power has come a long way as the cost has come down considerably. Last time I visited Las Vegas on business, there were solar farms with miles of solar panels built on empty desert to supply the utility companies. Southwest US has the ideal condition to take advantage of the abundant sunlight. Many states offer homeowners credit to install solar panels on their roofs.

Crash

Thanks for the responses, both of you.

dtconroe

I have put some money into Investment Grade Muni bond oefs. They are on a short leash, and I am watching them very closely.

Mona

dtconroe said:

I have put some money into Investment Grade Muni bond oefs and Investment Grade Intermediate Core Plus bond oefs recently. They are on a short leash, and I am watching them very closely.

dtconroe, may I ask which ones?

Mona

carew388

In addition to OEFs I'm looking at muni etfs MUB and VTEB since there's no short term transaction fees associated with selling.

dtconroe

"Mona"

dtconroe, may I ask which ones?

Mona

Mona, I moved money into SWNTX and SNTIX. I did have a buy order in for MWTIX for Monday, but after some additional analysis tonight, I cancelled that buy order--need to see more strength in the Intermediate bond category for awhile. I edited my post above to eliminate reference to Investment Grade Intermediate bond oefs.