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If inflation go up instead of treading downward due to Trump proposed tariff, all bets are off. We may see fewer rate cuts or the rate goes back up in the worst scenario.BaluBalu said: I expect a lot of stock market volatility for the next four years with this type of flame thrower mentality. May be time to cash in some chips from the steady two year gains and build extra dry powder.
FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
Heavens to Betsy, what a thought; it has been moldering in the grave. :)With the stock market going up this year, my total equity exposure was not going up and so I wanted to check if I am fiddling too much with my port or my fund managers are fiddling too much.
As of 10/31, FBALX is 65% in equity and PRWCX is 60% in equity.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/PRWCX
Based on M* analysis, Giroux is defensively positioned in terms of total equity exposure. M* analyst (human) report says,
"Giroux and team deliver a high-conviction basket of roughly 50 stocks that account for 60%-70% of the fund’s assets. He’ll shift the exposures meaningfully when he identifies mispricing, such as scaling up equity exposure when drawdowns bring valuations to a more attractive level. Giroux executed this approach in 2018, early 2020, and again in 2022. Although such moves can be early at times, driving steeper short-term losses, they’ve paid off over the long run. Don’t expect the stock weight to fall below 60% often, if at all. The team is more confident in identifying market bottoms than tops."
I am probably more guilty than my fund managers for my lower than expected equity exposure.
Feel free to post if you noticed how any of your other funds are positioned.
I hope @WABAC does not mind my changing the direction of this thread.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860434/000119312524264329/d833326d497.htmHarbor ETF Trust’s Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Disruptive Innovation ETF (the “Fund”). After the close of business on December 13, 2024, subject to applicable law, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on December 16, 2024. The Fund is currently scheduled to liquidate at the close of business on or about December 19, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”).
Two of the subadvising firms (4BIO Capital and Tekne Capital Mgmt) quit earlier this year.Each of the Subadvisors [] provides a model portfolio to the Advisor, which the Advisor implements at its discretion with respect to a portion of the assets of the Fund. The Advisor is responsible for the day-to-day investment decision making
https://humbledollar.com/2024/11/danger-taxes-ahead/When a company is getting ready to pay a dividend, it announces in advance the date that it will be paid. That’s called the “payable date.” For logistical reasons, it sets an earlier date as a cutoff for eligibility to receive that dividend. That earlier date is the ex-dividend date, or ex-date. The idea is that shareholders who own the stock on or before the ex-date will receive the upcoming dividend, while those who purchase the stock after the ex-date won’t...
This dynamic is more pronounced and more relevant when it comes to mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). By law, mutual funds and ETFs are required to distribute the bulk of their income to shareholders on a pro-rata basis. A fund owning stocks, for example, is required to distribute all of the dividends generated by the fund’s stocks. Similarly, a fund owning bonds is required to distribute all the interest paid by its bonds. In this way, from a tax perspective, owning a fund isn’t too different from owning the individual investments in the fund.
Fund investors, however, face another category of taxes—one that holders of individual stocks and bonds don’t have to contend with. Fund shareholders also share in the capital gains generated within the fund. If the fund’s manager decides that he wants to sell one stock to buy another, and he sells the first stock at a gain, each shareholder in the fund will have to share in the resulting tax bill. And if that trade results in a short-term gain—taxable at a much higher rate—each shareholder will bear some of that cost.
As I described a few years back, these capital-gains distributions can have a surprisingly large—and adverse—impact. Because shareholders don’t know a fund’s trading plans, this tax bill is also generally unpredictable.
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