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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Foreign frontier funds
    Hi folks,
    I came across this site while doing due diligence on some funds I'm considering: I was excited when I saw the coverage here described as "the thousands of funds off Morningstar’s radar” and saw that you have fund profiles because I thought maybe I could find some discussion of the merits and flaws of those funds as well as comparables to consider. But I didn't find those funds here, and I see now from the welcome page of MFO Premium that that's because the universe here is limited to US funds.
    I'm interested in the above funds specifically because they are NOT domiciled in the US. I am losing confidence in the US economy and want to start moving my money off-shore, not to shield it from taxes, but to shield it from a collapse of the dollar. I don't intend to completely abandon US investments, but I want to diversify into other regions. I will probably end up with a new portfolio that includes more conventional European and Asian funds as well as emerging market funds (domiciled outside the US), but I'm starting my research with frontier funds because of their attractive value proposition, of course modulo their commensurate risk.
    I would imagine that among the smart people here, there are some who share my concerns about the US economy and may have been dabbling in non-US funds. So I have three questions:
    • Is anyone here familiar with any of those funds, or would any of you like to take a look and see what you think from looking over their information?
    • Do you know of comparables I should be considering?
    • Is (are) there another site(s) analogous to this one for the non-US fund universe?
    For some background on how I came to be checking out those three funds, it's because of recommendations from publications of the iconoclastic outfit, "Sovereign Man". Tim Staermose writes a value investing newsletter there with a foreign focus (4th Pillar) that I subscribe to and I've bought some of his recommendations. But I don't like stock picking, so I was interested when he started up his own fund, just this month. The other two funds were mentioned in connection with material he provided about how to handle PFICs (i.e., foreign mutual funds, which can be a severe and costly headache if not handled carefully).
    (I feel embarrassed linking to the Sovereign Man and 4th Pillar websites above because their pitch is so heavy it feels like the kind of snake oil that would only attract idiots. But I subscribed to the free newsletter for a year and found it worth reading before I anted up for the 4th Pillar (at a substantial discount), and I feel that I've been getting decent value so far.)
    I'm a retired techie and have been managing my own finances my whole life with decent results. But I'm not a finance guy, so I only half know what I'm doing. Thanks for your input.
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    FWIW, the management fees are going up by 1 basis point (each share class), because Wellington charges more than Vanguard's Quant Equity Group (QEG).
    Also, there's a technical error in the supplement. I have sent the following to Vanguard:
    The fund's Prospectus Supplement dated August 17, 2020 reads in part: "Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus)."
    I believe this needs to be corrected. The alluded to description of how Wellington manages this fund does not appear in the Summary Prospectus. It does appear in the Statutory Prospectus, p. 11 (pdf p. 16). So the August 17, 2020 Supplement (to both the Summary and Statutory Prospectuses) should be corrected to reference the description only in the Statutory Prospectus.
    That prospectus reads in part: "Wellington Management uses a bottom up approach, in which stocks are chosen based on the advisor's fundamental analysis and its assessment of valuation. Although oil and gas price expectations are considered, company-specific factors such as the quality of the companies' assets, internal reinvestment opportunities, investment plans to capitalize on those opportunities, and quality of management are key inputs in the decision-making process."
  • Vanguard Energy Fund changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000168386320012536/f6661d1.htm
    497 1 f6661d1.htm VANGUARD ENERGY FUND 497
    Vanguard Energy Fund
    Supplement Dated August 17, 2020, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 29, 2020
    The board of trustees of Vanguard Specialized Funds (the “Board”) approved restructuring of the investment advisory team of Vanguard Energy Fund (the “Fund”), removing The Vanguard Group, Inc.'s Quantitative Equity Group (“QEG”) as an investment advisor to the Fund. Wellington Management Company LLP (“Wellington”) will serve as the Fund’s sole advisor. All references to QEG, and all other details and descriptions regarding QEG's management of certain assets of the Fund in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are deleted in their entirety.
    The change in the Fund's investment advisory arrangement is expected to change the Fund's expense ratios to 0.33% for Investor Shares and 0.25% for Admiral™ Shares.
    Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the Fund will change its primary benchmark to a custom market-cap weighted blend of the MSCI ACWI Energy Index and the MSCI ACWI Utilities Index to better reflect how Wellington intends to position the Fund within the energy industry (as currently described in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus).
    Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Text Changes
    The following replaces a similar table under the heading “Fees and Expenses” in the Fund Summary section:
    Annual Fund Operating Expenses
    (Expenses that you pay each year as a percentage of the value of your investment)... (see link for table)
  • Leuthold, echoing everyone I've interviewed
    @David_Snowball
    Hi David- it looks like the situation in Iowa is finally getting a bit of attention. This, from NPR:

    'The Devastation Is Widespread.' Iowans Continue To Struggle Following Deadly Derecho
    Thousands of Iowans are still coping with the aftermath of a storm that pummeled the state last Monday with 100-mile-per-hour winds — a storm that flattened corn and soybean crops, damaged grain elevators and leveled banks, churches and homes.
    More than 158,000 Iowans were still without power as of Friday evening, according to Iowa Public Radio. By Sunday morning, more than 98,000 continued to lack power, according to the monitoring site PowerOutage.US.
    "The devastation is widespread. It's intense. Block after block of houses, every one with some amount of damage. Trees piled 6 to 10 feet high along the road. It's like walking through a tunnel of green with some fluorescent orange of placard houses that are unsafe to enter," Tyler Olson, a city council member from Cedar Rapids, told NPR's Weekend Edition on Saturday. "The city itself has been working hard to get roads cleared, so that has taken place in many parts of the city. But we're still without power. The majority of our citizens are without power."
    The storm system that flattened crops and toppled trees is called a derecho, a particularly damaging and severe kind of wind storm that can cause hurricane-force winds, tornadoes and heavy rains. As many as 14 million acres of farmland were damaged by the storm, The New York Times reported.
    "It's by far the most extensive and widespread damage that we've seen on this farm," Aaron Lehman, who grows corn and soybeans in Polk County in central Iowa, told Harvest Public Media. Lehman, who serves as president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said the damage was worse than a typical tornado.
    "Unlike a tornado, which is a mile wide, this stretched for a width of really intense damage — of approximately 40 miles, probably closer to 60-70 miles wide," he said.
    In Cedar Rapids, some families were left living in tents. At one badly damaged apartment complex, displaced children played outside amid shredded shingles, rusting nails and the chunks of fiberglass insulation, Iowa Public Radio reported.
    "I didn't hear no sirens until our electricity went off. And then we went out and looked out the window and then it just all happened," said 14-year-old Lenberg Phillip in an interview with Iowa Public radio. "We were just watching out the window and then minutes later the roof came off."
    Olson says they're still hoping to get a presidential disaster declaration.
    "We need electricity," Olson said. "The [Iowa] National Guard arrived a couple of days ago to assist with utility with power back on, but we have citizens without food, without medicine. And we're working as hard as we can as a city to meet those needs but we really need the federal government and their resources."
    President Donald Trump has not signed an emergency declaration yet. On Tuesday, he tweeted: "Sad to see the damage from the derecho in Midwest. 112 mile per hour winds in Midway, Iowa! The Federal government is in close coordination with State officials. We are with you all the way - Stay safe and strong!"
    At a press conference in Cedar Rapids on Friday, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds said the soonest she'd be able to submit an application for a disaster declaration is on Monday, according to Iowa Public Radio.
    "We're moving forward, we're coordinating efforts, we're working with the local emergency managers and working with city officials and the mayor," Reynolds said. "They're on the ground. They need to let us know how we can supplement and help them with the work that they're doing and that's how we can efficiently and effectively serve citizens."
    This all comes as Iowa continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While the rate of infections appears to be decreasing, now averaging 458 new cases a week with more than 52,000 cases and 975 deaths, experts are worried about how the state will be able to handle two disasters at once.
    "[The pandemic] has complicated relief efforts," Olson said. "It's hard to gather people together. It's hard for repair companies, insurance adjusters, to go into homes. Obviously protections that are in place because of the pandemic. And it really, the city's resources were strained before in trying to deal with that and now we're dealing with this probably historic disaster."
    We surely hope that things are improving for you folks .
    Regards- OJ
  • Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
    @FD1000 care to share what event caused you to get back in 04/2020?
  • BONDS AAA, a bit twitchy this past week; Update AUG 28
    The week was rough for U.S. bond performance. However, the bond and equity markets remain, somewhat, within the functions of the central bank. Barring economic reports near term that are beyond belief to the positive side, I expect enough bond buying (in spite of issuance amounts) support to recover this weeks reversal in positive price trends. Looking at some of the YTD returns at this point of the year; one can't complain too much, eh? I've placed links below that won't take much of your time, related to bonds.
    Currently, I glance at data for , but do not track muni's, mortgage or foreign bonds.
    A few data views from bondland, for mostly AAA rated bonds:
    AUGUST 14 WEEK / YTD
    --- MINT = + .02% / +1.2% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = - .07% / +3.0% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = - .31% /+6.9% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.9% /+11% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.7% / +8% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = -3.2% / + 19.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = -3.9% /+21.6% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -5.4% / +28.3% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -6.1% /+29.8% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -1.3 / -1.4% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -2.4% / +7.7% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Priya Misra, Aug. 12, 3 minute video, bonds, yields and the FED.
    Jim Bianco Aug 14, 6 minute video, bonds and broad markets overview
    Scott Minerd, short text read, 30 year bond buying opportunity after sell-off
    As always, you'll have to be the final judge for the health of your portfolio mix using bonds.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • James Montier, Reasons (NOT) To Be Cheerful
    Retail sales last month were above their pre-pandemic level, despite out of control pandemic. I guess if Trump will accept the gift Pelosi is offering and keep the stimulus coming, the stock market may start to look cheap.
  • Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked
    https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/berkshire-makes-bet-gold-market-213804384.html
    Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked
    Justina Vasquez
    August 14, 2020, 4:38 pm
    (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. added Barrick Gold Corp. to its portfolio in the second quarter, sending shares of the world’s second-largest miner of the metal surging.
    Warren getting the gold bugs itch...he maybe more than half late to partee
  • International and emerging markets
    GISYX has surprised the heck out of me. I mainly picked it because it's a midcap with a reasonable expense ratio and reasonable turnover.
    Since I bought it on January 9, 2020 it has out-performed FSMEX, and everything else in my portfolio except USAGX.
    I don't plan on buying new shares at the current level.
  • Municipal Bond Investing In The COVID-19 Era
    Here is my problem with this article
    1) I appreciate his explanation but I don't think an average and above investor should buy single bond. I'm mainly a bond investor and always bought mutual funds. It's easy, cheaper and I can switch any time.
    2) Munis is one of my biggest category sometimes a huge % like now. The chance I will invest in the article choices are slim. I like HY Munis. A 5 year chart (link) is all you need. BTW, I sold all my munis at the end of 02/2020 and started buying on 04/2020.
  • T. Rowe Price U.S. Limited Duration TIPS Index Fund in registration
    We are already seeing price inflation in real estate prices as a result of low interest rates (fed policy).
    It doesn't look like that's been the case over the past three years. Though what's missing from the graph below is median square footage. The multi-decade trend has been toward larger houses, but I believe the trend over the past few years has been slightly downward. Factor that in and you might see a bit of inflation per square foot.
    image
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=ubtE
    Obviously housing trends vary widely from region to region, so YMMV.
    Also, "The CPI also does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate ..."
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_10
    Real estate prices are incorporated into the CPI only indirectly, to the extent that they affect the cost of shelter:
    Housing units are not in the CPI market basket. Like most other economic series, the CPI views housing units as capital (or investment) goods and not as consumption items. Spending to purchase and improve houses and other housing units is investment and not consumption. Shelter, the service the housing units provide, is the relevant consumption item for the CPI. The cost of shelter for renter-occupied housing is rent. For an owner-occupied unit, the cost of shelter is the implicit rent that owner occupants would have to pay if they were renting their homes.
    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.pdf
  • Decision Moose
    Hi @Rbrt
    The Barchart link referenced by Old_Skeet allows for a very good overview of market etf's that reflect (realtime when U.S. markets are open) the technical aspects. Also that one may click the column headers to sort a list somewhat.
    In addition, are the numerous other areas available along the left edge of the page. This data remains FREE at this time.
    I/we use this data to help us watch for trends. Our portfolio remains focused U.S.-centric in bonds, healthcare and growth (mostly technology). We are not traders in the day trade sense, but move money as needed among the noted areas to build our own form of a balanced portfolio with the foremost consideration of capital preservation. We do not now (have in past years) have any individual stock positions, as etf's/mutual funds fulfill sector needs.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • T. Rowe Price U.S. Limited Duration TIPS Index Fund in registration
    Once the economy picks back up inflation may as well. We are already seeing price inflation in real estate prices as a result of low interest rates (fed policy). Short duration TIPS seems like a way to hedge Inflation for the cash-like part of one's portfolio. Short Term TIPS have performed very well this year. VTIPX is up 7.45% YTD. VTIPX had a Max DD of about 1.57% that began in March and ended in May. In it's short history, Nov 2012, most of its gains have occurred in 2020.
  • Gone for good? Evidence signals many jobs aren’t coming back
    This article discusses some of what needs our attention during the transformation in the economy now underway.
    Jobs are fully back for the highest wage earners, but fewer than half the jobs lost this spring have returned for those making less than $20 an hour, according to a new labor data analysis by John Friedman, an economics professor at Brown University and co-director of Opportunity Insights. Though recessions almost always hit lower-wage workers the hardest, the pandemic is causing especially large gaps between rich and poor, and between White and minority households. It is also widening the gap between big and small businesses.
    Some economists have started to call this a “K-shaped” recovery because of the diverging prospects for the rich and poor, and they say policy failures in Washington are exacerbating the problems.
    “The stock market continues to reflect big businesses increasing their market share during #COVID19. If a small business closes, a larger business fills the void. We need to contemplate what this means for Main Street USA going forward. Is this really the future we want?” Cohn tweeted.

    image
    https://washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/13/recession-is-over-rich-working-class-is-far-recovered/
  • James Montier, Reasons (NOT) To Be Cheerful
    Mr. Montier is a senior member of GMO's asset allocation team. He also looks like he hangs out with Guy Fieri, the Diners, Drive-ins and Dives guys.
    image
    Mr. Montier is English and believes the behavior of the US stock market of late is "absurd." Here's an excerpt from his August 12, 2020 letter, for what interest it holds.
    David
    - - - - -
    Never before have I seen a market so highly valued in the face of overwhelming uncertainty. Yet today the U.S. stock market stands at nosebleed-inducing levels of multiple, whilst the fundamentals seem more uncertain than ever before. It is as if Mr. Market is taking a tail risk (albeit a good one) and pricing it with certainty.
    Now let me be clear, I don’t claim to know the answers to any of the deep imponderables that face the world today. I have no idea what the shape of the recovery will be, I have no idea how easy it will be to get all the unemployed back to work. I have no idea if we will see a second wave of Covid-19 or what we will do if we do encounter such an event. But I do know that these questions exist. And that means I should demand a margin of safety – wriggle room for bad outcomes if you like. Mr. Market clearly does not share my view.
    Investing is always about making decisions under a cloud of uncertainty. It is how one deals with the uncertainty that distinguishes the long-term value-based investor from the rest. Rather than acting as if the uncertainty doesn’t exist (the current fad), the value investor embraces it and demands a margin of safety to reflect the unknown. There is no margin of safety in the pricing of U.S. stocks today. Voltaire observed, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” The U.S. stock market appears to be absurd.
  • Midyear Outlook: Getting to the "New Normal"
    https://www.merrilledge.com/article/2020-mid-year-market-outlook
    Midyear Outlook: Getting to the "New Normal"
    In a year of extraordinary challenges, positive signals are emerging that the economy is regaining its momentum.
    The first few months of 2020 were unlike anything we've ever experienced. Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak triggered the fastest and sharpest decline in the stock market on record and pushed the U.S. economy into its first recession in more than a decade, with millions of Americans out of work. But by early June, the stock market had recovered much of its losses from the bottom on March 23rd, and key parts of the economy had already begun to show signs of improvement.
    Maybe fragile V shaped/ paced recovery mode next 3 6 months
  • Dodge & Cox Emerging Markets Stock Fund in registration
    Hi @David_Snowball et al
    This is a critical statement, IMHO: "361 Capital shared and interesting note that talked about which assets have, in the past, benefited when the US dollar weakened (a predictable consequence of zero interest rates on dollar bank securities and trillions of new issuance). They report that small, value and emerging are in the top four in both of the preceding periods they examined."
    Not to any reference to D & C in particular, but the markets overall; globally.
    The market melt of 2008 brought us to the "this time is different", and we investors remain with this circumstance; except now, "this time is REALLY different", IMHO.
    The "in the past" in bold above needs to have a reference point(s) for both 2008 and what is now the PRE-Covid, CURRENT-Covid and another point in the future that will be a POST-Covid.
    My view.
    Regards,
    Catch