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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bounce Back ... MFO Ratings Updated Through April 2020
    @WABAC. In addition to the 48 periods that MultiSearch provides metrics and ratings across, it now provides return metrics and ratings by calendar year, which I find helpful from a consistency assessment basis, as discussed in Back To Basics.
  • Bounce Back ... MFO Ratings Updated Through April 2020
    @WABAC. The closest thing in MultiSearch right now that provides ratings to end dates other that current month are the full, up, and down cycle Display periods. There are 6 such cycles going back to 1960 (though honestly it looks like we called the current one prematurely ... using month ending SP500 levels). When we first did the cycles analysis, it was based on day ending returns. I may end up revising the cycle dates (and numbers) based on the original methodology.
    Reference: Ten Market Cycles versus Mediocrity and Frustration, which simplified to 5 cycles, and A Presumptive Bear Ends an 11-Year Bull Run, which introduced the 6th.
  • Have You Suspened RMDs This Year?
    It’s likely that the rich don’t even worry about RMDs because their wealth is not tied up in tax-deferred accounts
    Well, some of the well to do. Then there are others ...
    Romney’s personal financial summary, disclosed last August under federal election rules, shows that his IRA holds his most lucrative investments, which are stakes in partnerships run by Bain Capital. ...
    Romney’s IRA produced income of $1.5 million to $8.5 million over 2010 and through August 12, 2011, according to his financial summary.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-campaign-romney-ira/how-did-romneys-ira-grow-so-big-idUSTRE80N04E20120124
  • People flock to NYC-area bars, beaches as ‘quarantine fatigue’ intensifies
    Why not basketball courts? Basketball involves close contact.
    That's why De Blasio closed the NYC playgrounds. Too many people were unclear on the concept that "contact sport" involves contact.
  • Have You Suspened RMDs This Year?
    My wife suspended her RMD from TIAA starting in June. There was a notification that even though it was suspended for 2020, it would auto-start-up for 2021.
  • Have You Suspened RMDs This Year?
    Fidelity has an interesting operational thought. If your RMDs are taken automatically, then don't turn them off. You'd just have to turn them on again next year. Instead, keep the automatic system enabled, but set the RMD amount for 2020 to $0.00.
    I have an inherited Roth, so that's what I did with my account. (Inherited IRAs have RMDs regardless of age.)
    Here's a column by Jeffrey Levine, CPA/PFS™ on Kitces' site that explains when you can move the money back into a T-IRA. If you can't (e.g. because you've already done one rollover this year), you can consider rolling the money over into a Roth instead of leaving it in a taxable account.
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/2020-rmd-waived-cares-act-irs-notice-2020-23-fix-unwanted-rmd-rollover/
    image
  • Low risk vanguard retirement portfolio
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4348188-low-risk-vanguard-retirement-portfolio
    Low Risk Vanguard Retirement Portfolio
    May 16, 2020 12:35 AM ETVBMFX, VEXPX, VFICX.
    Investment portfolios with low volatility, low drawdowns and high returns can be constructed with Vanguard mutual funds.
    From January 2003, a dual momentum strategy applied to a five-fund Vanguard portfolio would have produced a safe 5% annual withdrawal rate while achieving a 6.76% annual balance increase.
    The strategy described in this article is suitable for conservative investors. It requires quarterly reallocation of funds and is robust with respect to its two parameter selections.
  • People flock to NYC-area bars, beaches as ‘quarantine fatigue’ intensifies
    A minor point perhaps, but NYC beaches remain closed - Coney Island, Rockaway Beach, etc. The beach pictures shown are of New Jersey beaches.
    Detailed NYC COVID-19 data and graphs:
    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
    Keep in mind that aside from Rhode Island, NYS does more testing per capita than any other state and more than any other country outside of small countries like the the Falkland Islands and Luxembourg.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
    Even Trump knows that the more testing you do the more cases you "have" (report). It's like comparing Big Apples with Oranges (LA county 20,569 tests/1M pop., roughly half US average.) This is not to suggest that the NYC metropolitan area is not the most significant epicenter; just that one should understand the nature of the data at hand, whether for epidemics or fund metrics.
  • Here’s what’s driving stocks higher despite mounting economic worries: Kevin O’Leary
    Here is how Old_Skeet is playing it.
    I have two sleeves of equity income funds (one domestic and one global) which make up better than 15% of my portfolio plus what my hybrid funds hold. With this, I'm thinking that I've got, at least, somewhere around 50% in equity income type stocks within equities. As you may recall, I was a buyer of equity income funds during the recent stock market swoon and increased my allocation to them by 5%. In this way, I felt I'd get paid by collecting dividends during the anticipated stock market recovery over the next year, or so. My domestic equity income sleeve has a current yield of 3.72% while the global one has a yield of 2.53%. While this is short of the yield that my fixed income (4.52%) and hybrid income (3.75%) sleeves generate ... the equity income sleeves, I'm thinking, offer better capital appreciation opportunity. In looking back over the past ten year total returns for each sleeve the equity income sleeves had a total return in the 7% to 8% range while the income sleeves had a ten year total return in 5% to 6% range. And, if I had done nothing and kept the 5% in cash ... which I used to buy equity income ... (the best performing money market fund I have) had a ten year total return of 0.67%.
    With this, I'm thinking it pays to buy the stock market pullbacks, corrections and the bear markets over just sitting in cash. My analysis and looking back using the above ten year total return performance percentages with a sum of $10,000 invested cash would have generated about $670.00 ... the income sleeves would have generated about $5,500 and equity income sleeves would have generated about $7,500. This does not take into account compounding. For a long term investor, such as myself, buy during a dip, pullback, correction, or bear market when stocks are oversold and you'll do better than the average. Buy above the average when stocks are overbought and your returns will be less than average over an extended period of time.
  • People flock to NYC-area bars, beaches as ‘quarantine fatigue’ intensifies
    https://nypost.com/2020/05/16/people-flock-to-nyc-area-bars-beaches-as-quarantine-fatigue-intensifies/
    People flock to NYC-area bars, beaches as ‘quarantine fatigue’ intensifies
    They’re partying like it’s 2019.
    /lockdown-weary New Yorkers ditched the distancing to get social instead this weekend — transforming parts of the Big Apple into a raucous, late-season Mardi Gras./
    Folks in NY may have no remote, 2nd wave maybe deadly. We will find out in few weeks if ny curve indeed was flattened
  • Here’s what’s driving stocks higher despite mounting economic worries: Kevin O’Leary
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/16/kevin-oleary-talks-stock-market-etfs-as-economic-worries-mount.html
    Here’s what’s driving stocks higher despite mounting economic worries: Kevin O’Leary
    This is driving stocks higher despite mounting economic worries: Kevin O’Leary
    Unprecedented demand for stocks.
    That’s one major piece to the puzzle that is the current relationship between the U.S. stock market and the underlying economy, O’Shares ETFs Chairman and “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week.
  • Did Warren Buffett Buy Stocks in the Coronavirus Crash? The Answer Might Surprise You
    I sold 50% of brk.b, Warren maybe too old to do things now, may not be as vibrant as he once was, under performed compared to sp500 past few yrs so I pulled the plug. Even he recommended to buy sp500 during last speech
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/05/16/its-1987-again-warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway.aspx
  • Did Warren Buffett Buy Stocks in the Coronavirus Crash? The Answer Might Surprise You
    Turns out he sold a boat load of his Goldman Sachs too, eighty-four percent.
    Did Buffet not get the memo that you can't fight the Fed? I read his investment obituary at one of the popular websites this week.
    "Rage against the dying of the light"
  • PRWCX Position in GE
    I can't believe it never dawned on me that GEnworth had been part of GE.
    I believe they were the last LTC provider to sell policies that you could completely pay for over a fixed number of years. More costly up front to do this, but it protected you from large premium increases once paid off. As carew388 noted, the industry was discovering that it had mispriced policies, so all insurers were implementing massive premium hikes.
    GE spun off Genworth in 2004. However, it was stuck with reinsurance liabilities of at least $15B. Today it still owns legacy reinsurance companies carrying these liabilities.
    The partial divestiture of GE Capital that I'm more familiar with came after the GFC. As part of Dodd Frank, the Financial Stability Oversight Council designated AIG, Prudential, MetLife, and GE Capital systemically important financial institutions. Like TBTF banks, that meant more regulation.
    "In April 2015, GE announced that it intended to sell most of GE Capital over the next 18 months to 24 months in an effort, in part, to no longer be designated as systemically important."
    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42150.pdf
    People surely know of Synchrony Bank, formerly GE Capital Retail Bank, and Marcus (Goldman Sachs) Bank, formerly GE Capital Bank. These were some of the institutions that GE Capital sold off. What's left of GE Capital is still owned by GE. It just ain't what it used to be.
  • Storm Clouds Gather Over U.S. Stocks as Hopes of Quick Recovery Fade
    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/14/business/14reuters-health-coronavirus-investment-analysis.html
    Storm Clouds Gather Over U.S. Stocks as Hopes of Quick Recovery Fade
    By Reuters
    May 14, 2020
    /(Reuters) - A lightning-quick rally in U.S. equities is showing cracks, as investors face mounting evidence that the economy's coronavirus-fueled woes may be far longer-lasting than many had anticipated./
    Could be stalled/stagnant recovery next few months. We will see. Many pundits also predicted double
    dip... BTW after article published DOWS went up by few percent
  • The Biggest Mistake A Preferred Income Investor Can Make
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettowens/2020/05/14/the-biggest-mistake-a-preferred-income-investor-can-make/#a19e7c556359
    The Biggest Mistake A Preferred Income Investor Can Make
    Not for individual resale.”
    Ever see that label on a box of food, and scratch your head? Like who’s buying this big-mega bag of Chips Ahoy for the purpose of reselling the “individually packaged” helpings of cookies inside?
    One of our best holding is pff, it did plummet recently but we are still holding it and may add more later
  • Options for Income and Taxes
    while paper trading is good for confidence, unless you put actual money you will not learn. Just start with 1 SPY put OTM.
    You need your own strategy / scale / objective. One thing I can tell you is do not do 2X, 3X, 5X of your trade. what I mean is, if you have more money to play with do not sell 5 puts of SPY. instead make 5 trades with 1 put. That's the standard "casino" logic. They have limits on their tables because they want you to bet smaller more number times because the more times you play, the better probability THEY have of winning. When you are SELLING a put, you are the casino. You are selling RISK to the other guy who is buying the put from you.
    Next is your objective. Few ways to think about it. One obvious way is "can i make more than i'm earning as interest"? another is "can i generate enough cash to pay my monthly utility bills". i trust you get the picture. have a goal in mind and don't be greedy.
    Here's a guideline. Disclaimer if you lose money you suck not me. Say SPY is $280. 1.5% of SPY is $4.20. Go OTM and sell a put to collect $4.20. Chill. If you get assigned SPY because it drops at expiry, go out and sell a covered call to get 1.5% of what your cost basis is. Rinse. Repeat. Do with just 1 PUT for maybe 6 months, a year, whatever.
    I cannot say this again. Paper trading will only take you so far. To know your "psychology" you need to have real money on the line. Hindsight is always 2020, and this being the year 2020 is absolutely no help at all.
  • PRWCX Position in GE
    Here are excerpts from a recent article in Barrons. Surprisingly (maybe) many analysis see GE as a decent risk reward play. My figures are crossed for David Giroux decisions since PRWCX is my largest fund holding.
    I know a lot of people don't have the subscription to read so I added some lines from the article below:
    GE Stock Dropped Again. But Here’s What Is Going Right.
    The reasons (for stock collapse) are well known . Demand for air travel has been pummeled by Covid-19, which means fewer General Electric (ticker: GE ) jet engines on fewer commercial jets. What’s more, low interest rates and slower economic growth hurt the GE Capital and Power business units.
    Most Wall Street analyst actually rate shares the equivalent of Buy, so they must see something in the stock. Here are a few positives about the company, and the stock, for investors to consider.
    Larry Culp: ...well respected on Wall Street. Investors don’t have to worry about leadership while they worry about everything else.
    The Balance Sheet: “GE’s industrial balance sheet is currently in a net cash position.” GE has done a lot of work on its balance sheet, paying down debt and selling assets.
    Aerospace: ...expects the commercial aftermarket to recover “fairly quickly” in 2021. Defense is part of the aerospace industry, too, and GE supplies engines to the military. while relatively small, the company’s defense business is still growing.
    Cost Cutting: The cost-cutting started when Culp took over, and more actions are being taken to reduce the size of the aerospace business, preparing it for a smaller future.
    Vaccines: A vaccine or cure would solve a lot of problems for humanity, as well as the ones experienced by the commercial aviation industry.
    Risk and Reward
    Any stock, GE included, is ultimately about balancing risk and reward. The negatives, right now, are apparent, while the positives are less obvious. That is one reason GE stock is stuck. The question for investors now is how will the balance shift in coming months.
  • Schneider Small Cap Value Fund to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000139834420010669/fp0053971_497.htm
    497 1 fp0053971_497.htm
    THE RBB FUND, INC.
    Schneider Small Cap Value Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    _____________________________________________________________________________________
    Supplement dated May 15, 2020
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated December 31, 2019
    _____________________________________________________________________________________
    At a meeting held on May 13-14, 2020, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of The RBB Fund, Inc. (the “Company”), based upon the recommendation of Schneider Capital Management Company, the investment adviser to the Fund (the “Adviser”), approved a Plan of Liquidation and Termination for the Fund (the “Plan”). The Board concluded that it is in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Company effective as of the close of business on July 15, 2020.
    The Adviser has determined to waive any applicable redemption fees for shares of the Fund redeemed on or after May 15, 2020.
    Effective as of the close of business on May 25, 2020, in anticipation of the liquidation, the Fund will no longer accept purchases into the Fund. In addition, the Adviser is in the process of transitioning the Fund’s portfolio securities to cash and/or cash equivalents and the Fund will no longer be pursuing its stated investment objective.
    Shareholders of the Fund may redeem their investments as described in the Fund’s Prospectus. The redemption of shares will generally be considered a taxable event.
    If you hold shares of the Fund in an IRA account, you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds from the liquidation of the Fund (the “Proceeds”) to reinvest or “rollover” your Proceeds into another IRA and maintain their tax-deferred status. You must notify the Fund’s transfer agent by telephone at 1-888-520-3277 (toll free) prior to July 15, 2020, of your intent to rollover your IRA account to avoid withholding deductions from your Proceeds.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to July 15, 2020, your shares will be automatically redeemed on July 15, 2020 at the closing net asset value per share, and you will receive your Proceeds from the Fund, subject to any required withholding. These Proceeds will generally be subject to federal and possibly state and local income taxes if the redeemed Fund shares are held in a taxable account, and the Proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the Fund shares redeemed.
    If the redeemed Fund shares are held in a qualified retirement account, such as an IRA, the redemption Proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation. You should consult with your tax advisor on the consequences of this redemption to you.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-888-520-3277 (toll free).
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.
    (Disclosure: I have small positions in the this fund)
  • Mutual Funds with the Highest Perpetual Withdraw Rate
    what's interesting is to not use longest time frame but to set the start date to 2007, so you're going into retirement at a very bad time. i did it w PRWCX. started with 1 mil and at the end of 2019 you had 780k with a max drawdown of 55%, at the 10th percentile. scary. but at least you still had money. oh -- did retirement of 20 years. thanks for posting this!
    Great point...thanks. Wonder if starting in the year 2000 (tech bubble) had more dire results. The perpetual Withdrawal Rate would surely be lower (for both starting years) and maybe a better data points to use for this 2020 start year scenario.