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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bottom Line Personal ... June 1, 2020 ... "Simplify Your Investment Mix" by: David Snowball
    @davidrmoran - Here’s what I get this morning looking at Yahoo Finance (cross-checked NAV with MarketWatch). My mathematical skills are always suspect, so others may have a better way to compute DODGX’s gain.
    Closing price DODGX 3/20/2020: $122.40
    Closing price: Friday, May 22, 2020: $151.57
    Increase in NAV: +23.81%
    Dividend paid March 26: $2.80 per share
    Increase including dividend: Approximately 26%
    If the above doesn’t satisfy, try running the numbers from the next trade-date, Monday March 23, when DODGX closed at $118.38
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DODGX/performance/
    -
    @Davidrmoran said: “Second, what's the goldenness from early Jan 09 onward ” They lag SP500 hugely to date “ David, I’m not sure whether you purposely misrepresented my remark or perhaps, I needed to add some additional qualifiers to the statement. I thought that within the context, it was concrete enough. As you are no doubt aware, comments like that need to be considered in light of the context in which they appear.
    The whole point I was making is that D&C funds tend to have erratic (roller coaster) patterns of performance. So, my comment “when they rocketed back to the top of the herd beginning in 2009, they became the golden boys once again” was meant to refer to another sharp reversal in performance which lasted several years. Obviously, that “golden boys” moniker no longer applied in recent years. If it had, we wouldn’t be discussing a remark like @Shostakovich‘s “in light of some of the controversy here around D&C funds”. You don’t see that during the hot performance periods.. More likely, people are asking whether thay can buy D&C funds NTF.
    “S&P 500”? Where did that come in? I thought we were discussing actively managed funds.
    No dispute that if you could buy past performance, the S&P500 would be a better investment than most actively managed funds - at least since sometime in the ‘90s. I suspect by now that’s included in high school history books.
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    Hi @kings53man,
    Just wondering what your overall asset allocation might be? Cash 10% ... Fixed (income) ? ... Equity (stocks) ?
    I have been retired now for more than five years. My basic asset allocation is 20/40/40 which I can overweight the income area and equity area by 5% each should I feel warranted. Currently, I'm at 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity. Since, the yield on cash is in the 1% range (or less) I'm thinking of raising my income allocation to 45% and reducing cash to 10% as my CD's mature. The last CD I had mature, a week or so ago, I rolled into three good generating income funds with a package yield of a little better than 4%. The three fund package consisted of BLADX, FLAAX & PFANX.
    Here is more on how I roll now in retirement.
    Old_Skeet's All Weather Asset Allocation.
    My all weather asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides sufficient income, maximizes diversification, minimizes volatility, and provides long-term returns.
    The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are cash, money market mutual funds and CD's.
    The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are BAICX, FLAAX & PONAX.
    The 40% held in the equity area provides me some dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, that offsets the effects of inflation, over time. Some examples of investments held in this area are IDIVX, NEWFX & SPECX
    Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, principal grows over time. And, as principal grows the amount available for distribution does as well.
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    Will maintain current strategy as I learned from this down cycle. There is, however, another risk beyond cornoavirus such as trade war with China as it is gaining momentum. If it repeats as in late 2018 another double digits loss can resulted.
    https://cnbc.com/video/2020/05/22/us-china-trade-tensions-are-a-bigger-risk-than-coronavirus-invesco.html
    I don't agree with Hooper that the coronavirus risk is neutralized by QE's by the Fed. The current 14.7% unemployment number could go even higher even as lockdown eases across the country. Mails are open and there are few customers as many fear to venture out.
  • 100 High Yielders Down Big: These 4 Are Worth Considering
    related
    Where to look for higher yields without taking on unintended risk
    johnN
    5:37PM in Fund Discussions
    https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/investing/2020/05/24/looking-higher-yields-try-convertible-securities-covered-calls/5251111002/
    Where to look for higher yields without taking on unintended risk
    NANCY TENGLER
    As if we didn’t have enough economic trouble, unemployment has hit its highest rate since the Great Depression, small businesses are hanging on for dear life, and real (after inflation) interest rates are negative. This creates serious problems for savers and retirees who are relying on investment and savings income to live.
    Couple of interesting ideas regarding HY vehicles discussed- stocks options, securities, bonds...
    Thinking maybe add more JNK or ExxonMobil /GAP
  • What The Hell Is The Stock Market Doing? Cullen Roche
    Thanks @Mark.
    policymakers around the world can't afford to let a massive deflationary economic collapse occur, and for millions and millions of people to be unable to afford the necessities of life and for half of large companies to go out of business, so they will be forced to keep the stimulus taps open, funded with printed money, with a willingness to devalue currency to avoid the worst case economic scenario."
    Investors should keep in mind that the above is just one possible scenario. So if you bet on it by loading up on risk assets and instead global economies fall into the dumpster for the next decade, you'll lose a lot of money. Probably would have been better off in AAA bonds.
    Listened to Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital on Bloomberg today. I thought he missed the “mark” a little. In addressing the steep equity valuations today Marks painted 2 possible outcomes: (1) A near term sharp retrenchment in equity valuations or (2) Continued CB easing and government stimulus which may keep equities / risk assets “levitated” for many years before they finally fall back to earth. (But possibly Bloomberg edited out other pertinent commentary.)
    There is a 3rd proposition, which Schwartzer seems to address: Paper currencies will steadily erode in purchasing power owing to all the easy money & repeated government stimulus around the world so that the seemingly high valuations today may appear cheap in a decade or so. In other words, in a decade from now you may be glad you owned some of today’s “bloated” equities. I think we tend to underestimate the slow steady effect of inflation on our standard of living and on our investments.
    “The fog creeps in on little cat feet.” - Carl Sandburg
  • Bottom Line Personal ... June 1, 2020 ... "Simplify Your Investment Mix" by: David Snowball
    Hi guys, I take the print edition and it might get released before the online one becomes available since it comes through the mail. Not a typo ... June 1, 2020 ... edition is correct.
  • Opinion: Making sense of the turmoil in the muni market
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/making-sense-of-the-turmoil-in-the-muni-market-2020-05-22
    Opinion: Making sense of the turmoil in the muni market
    Are municipal bonds now more attractive than comparable corporates or Treasurys in your retirement portfolio?
    After the beat down in feb/March, muni bonds also recovered past few wks, making one of most attractive vehicles to consider own out there
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class
    Similarly, USAA has an announcement about its mutual fund transitioning once you log in:
    Important Notice: Victory Capital and USAA are updating the final technology transition date for USAA Mutual Funds and USAA 529 College Savings Plan accounts. The full technology transition to vcm.com will occur in the third quarter of 2020.
    While your accounts will transition automatically at no cost to you, there are some actions you may need to take to ease the technology transition. You will have continued access to your accounts through usaa.com until the technology transition occurs. For more information, see Review Important Transition Dates found in the To Do List.
  • Floating Rate Funds In A COVID-19 World: Buy Or Sell?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfoster/2020/05/23/floating-rate-funds-in-a-covid-19-world-buy-or-sell/#6141b51b6eff
    Floating Rate Funds In A COVID-19 World: Buy Or Sell?
    Volatility has taken over, and if you’re like most folks, you’re wondering where to find the safe dividends you need to sustain your savings—and income stream—as this pandemic drags on.
    enjoy
  • Some of USAA's funds redesignated as "A" class

    USAA recently "sold" their Investment division to Charles Schwab for $1.8 Billion. That's $1,800,000,000 in cash. USAA will transfer $90 Billion in assets to Schwab sometime in May 2020.
    That time is now. A banner on Schwab's site reads:
    Welcome USAA Members. We are so glad you are here!
    We are working to transition your accounts this weekend to Schwab. On Tuesday, May 26, you will be a Schwab client. At that time, our professionals will be able to serve you over the phone and you will be able to log in to Schwab.com to access your account. Until then, please visit usaa.com/transitionhub to be guided to create your Schwab login and password or for information about the transition of your accounts to Schwab.
  • Bottom Line Personal ... June 1, 2020 ... "Simplify Your Investment Mix" by: David Snowball
    Nice basic portfolios. I find it interesting that he selected DODBX over VWELX.
    As I've written in other posts, 2020 skews the figures. A 6% performance difference YTD is enough to make VWELX look better over any time frame. But this is (we hope) a once in a century situation. Outside of this period, DODBX looks better. OTOH, what 2020 highlights is the higher risk inherent in D&C funds.
    David Snowball perhaps addresses this in his sidebar on index funds: although not best in bad markets, good over the long term. The same could be said of D&C funds.
    One small nit to pick: PONRX is a load fund. As it says in its prospectus: "distribution fees ... may cost you more than other types of sales charges, such as [front end loads]. Therefore, ... the distribution fees payable on ... Class R shares may, over time, cost you more than Class A [front end loads]".
    Better to buy PONAX load waived. The embedded (level) load in PONRX is reflected in its lower Morningstar (retrospective) star rating and its lower Morningstar (prospective) medal rating.
  • Bottom Line Personal ... June 1, 2020 ... "Simplify Your Investment Mix" by: David Snowball
    In this months edition of Bottom Line Personal MFO's David Snowball has a featured article titled: Simplify Your Investment Mix.
    The bullet points of the article follow.
    The articles covers, from his view, the advantages of streamlining ... Better Returns and Less Effort.
    He offers up a one fund portfolio ... a two fund portfolio ... and, a three fund portfolio.
    In the one fund portfolio he offers two fund choices: DODBX & VWINX.
    In his two fund portfolio he offers both a basic and conservative route. The basic route contains the following fund choices. They are JENRX and HABDX. The conservative route is made up of PRBLX and FTBFX.
    For his three fund portfolio he offers both a basic and conservative route. For the basic route he list the following funds. They are VDIGX, TROSX and DODLX. For the conservative route he uses PRDGX, TBGVX and PONRX.
    The article covers suggested weightings along with some other comments.
    Nice article for those that are wanting to streamline.
    Old_Skeet
  • Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jrose/2020/05/22/do-you-have-a-long-term-plan-if-the-coronavirus-bear-market-continues/#73b450b0c391
    Do You Have A Long-Term Plan If The Coronavirus Bear Market Continues?
    2020 has been a wild ride in the stock market. After setting an all-time high on February 19, the market slid a stunning 34% by March 23 – a space of barely 5 weeks.
    Then it did something probably nobody at the time saw coming – it took an equally dramatic turn upward. Through April 30 the market recovered 32% from its March lows, as measured by the S&P 500.
  • MOAT vs. DSEEX/DSENX
    I sold PONAX and PMZAX when they started declining to keep some of my profits. Kept PFOAX and redeployed assets into various bond funds including JAFIX SNGVX and NEFRX . At this point for me return of capital outweighs return on capital.
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    2020 skews results. Some funds have done way better than their long term performance would suggest, LLSCX has done remarkably worse (99th percentile of mid cap blend category).
    Looking instead at 1/1/2010 through 1/1/2020, LLSCX has done okay. Not an endorsement or a commentary on its investments, but rather a suggestion to look at more than one snapshot in time. Especially given that the outsized impact of the 2020 market effectively transforms some "long term" figures into "what have you done for me lately" pictures.
    Here's a chart over that timeframe comparing LLSCX, R2K (its stated benchmark), midcap blend (its M* category since 2011), and small cap value (it claims to buy small cap companies, and Longleaf generally claims to be a value family). It just edged out R2K (210% cumulative return vs. 206% for R2K), and did better against the MCB and SCV category averages.
    M* comparison chart
    If you don't like looking at charts (personally I prefer to read numbers), the LLSCX summary prospectus says that the fund's average return over the past ten years was 11.98% vs 11.83 for the R2K. That's 2010-2019.
    Why bother? Lots of better funds out there.
    Can't argue with that :-)
  • Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder and Dividend Builder Funds reorganized
    Why "too bad"? Isn't it only the "wrapper" that has changed - not the contents?
    On May 14, 2020, the Board of Trustees of the Guinness Atkinson Funds (the “Trust”) approved the reorganizations of ... Funds into SmartETFs ... There will be no change in investment objective, strategies or portfolio management.
    Also - would this be the "first" conversion of an existing mutual fund into an ETF?
    If so (unsure), wouldn't that be big news, with respect to setting a precedent?
    Re: SmartETFs
    https://www.smartetfs.com/invest/
    https://www.smartetfs.com/about-us/
  • Longleaf Partners Small Cap Fund reopens to new investors (LLSCX)
    News article concerning reopening:
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/05/22/southeastern-the-exceptional-opportunity-in-small-cap-value?topic=energy
    Southeastern Asset Management excerpt concerning LLSCX reopening:
    We designed this reopening in a thoughtful way. We are only targeting $2.5 billion of AUM. If we get there quicker with a performance bounce-back, that's great. We'll close again. We've shown over the years that we focus on doing the right thing for those clients who are already with us.
  • Your favorite Dividend Paying Funds
    Managed payout funds are explicitly designed to pay steady amounts, like annuities, except that they adjust their payouts periodically, typically annually. It's a nearly hopeless task, especially in a low and declining interest rate environment. Hence their return of capital. At least they are upfront about it.
    Vanguard essentially conceded how difficult this is when it merged three managed payout funds into one. It gave up the ghost in February, when it announced that it was changing the div schedule on VPGDX from monthly to annual starting at the end of this month (May).
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-throws-in-the-towel-on-its-managed-payout-fund-51582939988
    REIT funds are another odd sort of mutual fund. They invest in REITs which often make return of capital distributions. I'd guess that funds holding REITs just pass this through but I've never looked closely at how REIT funds handle distributions.
    REITs depreciate their assets, which reduces net income. But because depreciation is a non-cash charge (and may not reflect the actual change in value of a REIT's property portfolio), the REIT's cash flow is usually higher than its taxable income. The difference is classified as ROC and is included in the distribution to unitholders.
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investor-education/learning-to-roll-with-roc-can-pay-off/article24704378/
    When funds make return of capital payments they file IRS Form 8937. Outside of REIT funds and managed payout funds, such payments should be pretty rare. You can see that in Vanguard's list of 8937 filings:
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/taxcenter/form_8937
    Likewise, infrequent for American Funds (the July 2016 entries are for fund reorgs, not ROC)
    https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/service-and-support/tax-center/form8937.html
    T. Rowe Price seems to have around 3-4 funds each year with ROC
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/planning-and-research/tax-planning/dividend-distributions/corporate-actions.html
    Pimco seems to have around a dozen or so funds each year with ROC
    https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/tax-center
  • Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder and Dividend Builder Funds reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/919160/000139834420011445/fp0054046_497.htm
    497 1 fp0054046_497.htm
    Guinness Atkinson Funds
    Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder Fund (GAADX)
    Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder Fund (GAINX)
    Supplement dated May 22, 2020 to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2020 and Summary Prospectus dated May 5, 2020
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) and should be retained and read in conjunction with the Prospectus and SAI.
    * * *
    On May 14, 2020, the Board of Trustees of the Guinness Atkinson Funds (the “Trust”) approved the reorganizations of Guinness Atkinson Asia Pacific Dividend Builder Fund into SmartETFs Asia Pacific Dividend Builder ETF, and Guinness Atkinson Dividend Builder Fund into SmartETFs Dividend Builder ETF. There will be no change in investment objective, strategies or portfolio management.
    A Prospectus/Information Statement with respect to the reorganizations will be mailed before the consummation of the reorganization to holders of each fund’s shares as of the record date.