Interesting comment from hedge fund manager, Leon Cooperman:

Risks for the market
The nation's rapidly growing national debt is among Cooperman's biggest concerns.Instead of whittling down the federal deficit when the economy was strong, Trump directed the federal government pile on even more debt to pay for massive tax cuts and spending surged, which meant the country entered the coronavirus crisis in rough financial shape. Now, the national debt is exploding as Washington scrambles to rescue the US economy from the shock of the pandemic.
"I am focused on something the market is not focusing on at the present time and that is: Who pays for the party when the party is over?" Cooperman said. The deficit is growing at a rate "well in excess of the growth rate of the economy," he added. "To me, that means more of our nation's income will have to be devoted to debt service, which will retard economic growth in the long term."

https://cnn.com/2020/07/20/investing/leon-cooperman-stock-market-overvalued/index.html

Chapter I -Too complex for me. Fortunately I purchased the DejaOffice App at Apple around the time I retired. It has proven highly reliable and very versatile for creating various files and keeping backups. Updating the most recent backup to all devices (weekly) works reliably. So I have basic records of just about everything related to investing since retiring 20+ years ago. Annual returns, additions from other sources, withdrawals by year, total withdrawals to date, total gains to date, Roth conversion dates and amounts, etc. etc. I also record every fund exchange, transfer or sale I make, but normally discard those files after 3 years. The thought of having to maintain all that garbage in some type of paper file (as might have been common 25 years ago) is daunting to say the least.
Chapter II - I don’t worry too much about any overarching plan. Looking at those detailed records gives me some degree of confidence I’m heading in the right direction. We’ve skated around the related issue in the past of whether it’s better to keep a 3-5 year cash reserve to smooth out those market shocks or to just pull what you need from the overall blend of assets. The former allows for a more aggressive investment approach of course (but with fewer dollars). Good arguments both ways. I’m in the minority here as I believe in not maintaining a separate cash reserve. However, am quite conservatively invested,
Chapter III - In terms of how much and when to withdraw? Depends on needs. Pull substantial amounts for a new car or home renovation maybe every 5 years. Lesser amounts for other years. If worried about market levitation I do a 6 month “advance” by transferring the next year’s anticipated needs into cash still within the tax-sheltered domain. I did that mid-way through 2019. Not planning on doing that this year. Politicians have gone spending crazy in an election year. A trillion here ... a trillion there ... Hell to pay some day. But I expect the markets to hold at least until November. As far as those drawdowns for major purchases go ... if the market’s sucking air and your investments are way down, postpone whatever you’d intended. Wait for a better time. I suspect that in that regard the human brain is better enabled to make the decision than would be MonteCarlo or any other computer simulation.
Chapter IV - Can’t quite get my head around the popular notion of “spending down” assets. My invested assets have increased (in nominal terms) during retirement. I expect them to continue to increase. (That’s after whatever withdrawals were taken.) There’s something to be said for having an increasing “net worth” at any age. In fact, it seems counterintuitive to me to be “investing” (presumably for growth) while at the same time planning how to divest oneself of said assets. Maybe it’s because I have a decent pension. Don’t know. But it’s a real brain stopper for me.

perhaps further of interest:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/stock-buybacks-and-a-shaky-economy/2020/07/19/5d31791a-c84c-11ea-8ffe-372be8d82298_story.html
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26958

M* bond rating doesn't guarantee or forecast future returns and/or volatility, especially with managed funds with more moving parts. Even "simple" funds can't.
Examples:
VCIT=all IG(investment grade bonds) and simpler - M* rating BBB.
PTIAX-M* rating BB
PUCZX-M* rating BB
2002 Peak to trough Feb to March of 2020:...VCIT lost over 11%...PTIAX over 10%...PUCZX over 18%
PTIAX with lower rating bonds than VCIT lost less than VCIT.
PTIAX lost less a lot less than PUCZX with similar rating bonds.
Another Myth is duration: it can't predict accurately price movement based on rates even with simpler funds. Rates change fluctuate over time with up/down movement.

Hi guys,
In looking back though the thread I see where the last report was made on July 4th with a reading of 125 indicating that the S&P 500 Index was extremely overbought. Since then, not much has changed with the barometer reading; and, as of Friday July 17th it scores the Index with a reading of 121 reflecting that the Index remains extremely overbought.
Recently, Jim Cramer made a call based upon some charting that he believes we might be in for a pullback towards the end of July. We will see if this comes to be. For me, I'm also thinking that there is some near term downside coming.
Here is the link to Mr. Cramer's call https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbc-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-uses-this-chart-to-predict-the-exact-date-the-stock-market-could-hit-the-skids-2020-07-15
Since last report ... I have reduced my equity allocation from about 45% equity to 40% equity and raised cash by a like amount. This now puts my asset allocation at about 15% cash, 45% income and 40% equity. From here I do not have any buy or sell activity planned; and, I await the next stock market pull back building cash from my portfolio's income generation. Most likely, I'll do a little equity buying should we get into a stock market pull back which would be a decline, for the Index, of -5% (3065) to -10% (2900) from its near term high of 3225. Currently, the Index is off it's 52 week closing high of 3386 by about -5% and is up off it's 52 week closing low of 2237 by just short of +45%. That is a strong run upwards, form the 52 week low, without a major pull back.
For me, a dip is a decline of up to -5%, a pull back is a decline from -5% to -10%, a correction is a decline of -10% to -15%, a downdraft is a decline of -15% to -20%, and a bear market is a decline greater than -20%.
Generally, stocks go soft during the summer ... so be cautious. I know, I am.
Take care ... and, be safe.
Old_Skeet

@bee, Thank for your your question about what funds I might benchmark my portfolio against. One, the benchmark must be a hybrid fund and have a yield generation of about 3.5%. Not to many hybrid funds achieve this as they are geared more towards growth than income generation. Two funds that I own that come close to the required yield are two widely held American Funds. They are Income Fund of America (AMECX) with a yield of about 3.4% and a ten year average return of 8.5%. The other one is Capital Income Builder (CAIBX) with a yield of 3.6% and a ten year average return of 6.8%. Overall I am at a yield of about 3.4% with a ten year average return of better than 9 percent.
I'm thinking the main reason that I am doing a little better than these funds comes from me being active within my portfolio and my use of special investment "spiff" positions when I feel it warranted. From a yield perspective I pair up better to AMECX and from an asset allocation perspective I pair up more towards CAIBX. Performance wise, again, I have done better than either of these two funds.
My top five funds owned (size wise other than my MMK funds) when combined account for about 25% of my portfolio are AMECX, FKINX, ISFAX, CAIBX & JNBAX.
On your other comment about living below one's means. I feel blessed that both my principal residence and 2nd home are both paid for and have been for a good number of years. Living below my means for a good number of years has helped us (wife and me) get ahead along with good prudent investing.
I have had high school buddies (at reunions) that were indeed much higher wage earners that I ... ask ... I know I made more than you through the years; and, now you have a great deal more than me. How did you do it? Win a lottery? Nope, I just spent less and lived within my means saving some along the way plus I have been a good prudent investor and grown my wealth through the years.
Besides, it cost to much to keep up with the Jones that live off credit cards and are mortgaged to the hilt.
Again, bee ... Thanks for asking. Now you know.
Old_Skeet

I considered investing in PIMIX a while ago. In the multi-sector bond category, PIMIX had generated top-decile trailing returns with below average volatility. The fund's non-agency mortgage sector investments accounted for much of the strong performance after the financial crisis. However, the non-agency mortgage sector is much smaller today. Yet, Pimco refuses to close PIMIX which currently has ~ $120 Bil AUM. Matter of fact, I don't believe that PIMCO has ever closed a fund because it grew too large. This compaoblony policy is not in an investor's best interest.

The above is a good encapsulation of M*'s latest analyst review (not paywalled):
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/986480/why-pimco-income-remains-among-the-best
With the better financial reporting, "trust but verify" is good practice. (With much financial reporting, the "trust" part isn't justified.)
Jacobson writes that "Pre-financial-crisis supply in the [nonagency residential mortgage] sector has been shrinking." Those securities are often referred to as legacy RMBS (i.e. securities issued pre-financial crisis). And the statement's correct. However, the post GFC RMBS 2.0 sector (with stricter borrower guidelines) is growing. Though it is still minuscule; I don't want to suggest otherwise.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/credit-suisse-and-citigroup-join-other-major-banks-in-mortgage-bond-revival-with-a-twist-2019-08-20
In late 2017 Jacobson (along with lead writer Miriam Sjoblom) was making the same point about a shrinking supply, describing the post GFC years as "a once-in-a-career opportunity. " They also commented even back then on the fund size (more on that below).
A bit concerning is Jacobson's statement that "Pimco still likes the sector for its return potential and modest volatility: ... they totaled 37% as of March 2020." This seems to be overstated.
According to M*'s portfolio page (old-style version) non-agency RMBSs amounted to 8.57% (out of 120% bond exposure) of the portfolio. The largest sector was agency MBS pass throughs at 40.58% (out of 120%), followed by asset-backed securities at 33.63% (out of 120%). All as of March 31, 2020.
According to the fund's annual statement, summary section, non-agency MBSs constituted 19.5% of assets (out of 100%), and asset backed securities constituted 12.8%. We report, you decide :-)
PIMCO says that securities (substantially all are bonds) constitute 154.5% of assets. And it reports non-agency MBSs constituting 30.3% of assets. So the non-agency RMBS percentage of securities (out of 100%) is, according to PIMCO, 30.3%/154% = 19.6%, or about what was reported in the annual statement's summary.
Regarding size: current size is $120B according to PIMCO ($117B according to M*). Jacobson made the same complaint about bloat in his 2018 analyst report (free) entitled "Is PIMCO Income Getting Too Big". According to that year's annual report, the fund's assets (all share classes) totaled $112B, or about the same size as now. But it had grown from about $69B the year before.
Mitigating that, Christine Benz (M*) comments that (at least with respect to vanilla bond funds):

managers who use derivatives to express their market outlooks may be able to successfully manage more girth than managers who focus more on bond-picking to make a difference. PIMCO Total Return and its various clones, for example, were able to deliver peer-beating returns for many years even though the fund grew too large for bond-picking to make a significant difference in its returns. At its peak, PIMCO Total Return had nearly $300 billion in assets, and Gross managed various pools of money in that same style for other entities, too.

PIMCO's funds have their issues, but so far they seem to have handled them better than I would have expected. I might put the fund on a watch list for more problems. But as I wrote above, if I had reasons before for liking the fund, I would examine those reasons before jumping ship.

How do I keep track of it all? I don't try to kill myself by keeping track precisely, but since the lion's share of my stuff is with TRP, I can get a good and accurate picture about gains and losses when I log-in. Anytime, any day. And my TRP funds are all Trad-IRA. My wife's only fund is Trad-IRA, and we are not adding anything to the Trad-IRA funds at all. I'm retired, and she has no earned income, at least not officially.
I suppose my portfolio might amount to just a fraction of what some of us here are holding. In 2020, for the very first time, I withdrew a few thousand from my biggest TRP holding (PRWCX) for a new car down payment. I deliberately took the money from my biggest holding, because its relative size might assist in making up that few thousand dollar drop, for the car--- assuming an upward market. I see that the fund is already almost back up to "even-Steven," before I took that few thousand from it. PRWCX is just the best investment I've ever made. Still closed to new investors.
Our only taxable fund is a bond fund, PTIAX. Every month, it gets automatically fed, but just a morsel. Unless the sky falls down upon us all, I'll keep attempting to edge my equity stake down to about 30% of my total. I'm at 58% bonds, and 5% cash. That cash is held by the mutual funds. We do hold some REAL cash in our bank accounts, but after we save a bunch, it gets spent on extended family. For one thing, we're putting a niece through school. Last month, we saved another niece's life--- literally--- with our money. So, the "karma bank" is full-up. She had Covid, pneumonia, severe anemia and TB. Jayzuz. Frikkin' 3rd-world country. No middle class. 3% own and control everything. Everyone else goes hand-to-mouth. Every... Single... Day. To say nothing of the corruption.
Sorry, I got sidetracked. NOTE: PTIAX doesn't even have a website that allows shareholders to sign-in and check up on their accounts. I guess it keeps expenses down. Otherwise, I'm quite happy with it.

How does one keep track of their gains or losses while at the same time accounting for permanent losses from portfolio withdrawals?
Let say I have $100K and I plan on withdrawing 4% or $4K in year one of retirement and I do that Jan 1 of that first year. My balance is now effectively $96K as a result of the distribution. To me this is a permanent loss because I am spending, not saving that 4%. Obviously my bookkeeping accounts for this withdrawal until I spend it. Maybe I buy a car with this 4% and the car goes up in value after I buy it. Maybe I blow it on Jan 2 at the casino...ouch... but these are the dynamics of spending down your portfolio. You may have something (a car worth at least $4k) or you have nothing more than a recollection of the $4K withdrawal.
If my overall portfolio drops 10% soon after Jan 1, I now have $86.4K. My hope is that over the next 3-5 years I will recoup that 10% market loss, but I realize my withdrawal rate (4%) is now greatly impacted by my eventual portfolio balance come Jan1 of the next 3-5 years.
Segregating 5 years worth of withdrawal might act as a drag on my potential upside performance, but might hedge my downside potential. Five years of withdrawal that include a 2% inflation adjustment would amount to $20.8K. It might be prudent to keep this amount in a conservative investment with little downside risk. That leaves a little less than $80K invested for the longer term (5 years). An average 5 year return of 5.8% would return this portfolio to its $100K value, but inflation requires a 7.9% average return in order to keep the same buying power.
Seems to me that in retirement one needs segregate "withdrawal assets" (maybe up to 5 years worth) from "market assets". This way your withdrawals are not necessarily connected to the market's ups and downs. In 5 years, a new calculation will determine what the nest 5 years of "withdrawal assets" will amount to.
If your are managing these dynamics in retirement please share your strategy.

Most investors should never own FR(floating rate) funds.
The risk/reward isn't good.
You can get high distributions with funds like PIMIX but with better risk/reward,
In 2020 BKLN lost over 20% as of 3/23/2020.
Rates are not going up because the Fed told us that. The only time many bond categories suffer sizable losses is when rates rise very quickly within several weeks.
As bond OEF trader I use FR short term when FR have a great momentum and the Fed tell us they are going to raise rates like they did couple of years ago.

This *preferred* stock ETF dropped from 25 to 7 during the March 2020 crash.
SWAN holding? Hardly. And a hard-pass .... but lovely clickbaity headline.

in a week-plus, buckle up maybe
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/opinion/coronavirus-economy-unemployment.html

Looking at MWFSX I can see that the daily distribution is going down. That is not a good thing and why the return will go down because it was a major part of its total return.
As of Date Dividend Rate
7/14/2020 0.000696355
7/13/2020 0.001070898
7/12/2020 0.00292486
7/11/2020 0.00292486
7/10/2020 0.00292486
7/9/2020 0.002941311
7/8/2020 0.003001093
7/7/2020 0.003107266
7/6/2020 0.003372154
7/5/2020 0.003362877
7/4/2020 0.003362877
7/3/2020 0.003362877
7/2/2020 0.003362877
7/1/2020 0.003403448
6/30/2020 0.004653331
6/29/2020 0.004131378
6/28/2020 0.005873692
6/27/2020 0.005873692
6/26/2020 0.005873692
6/25/2020 0.00452522
6/24/2020 0.004407367
6/23/2020 0.004650857
6/22/2020 0.004539056
6/21/2020 0.005814275
6/20/2020 0.005814275
6/19/2020 0.005814275
6/18/2020 0.005364586
6/17/2020 0.004498074

Low-Cost Floating Rate Debt Index ETF, 4.62% Yield
Jul. 14, 2020 3:33 PM ETInvesco Senior Loan ETF
Interest rates are at historical lows.
Most fixed rate securities and funds offer low yields, and could suffer sizable losses if rates normalize.
Floating rate funds, including BKLN, can help reduce interest rate risk, and can help investors profit from rising interest rates.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4358444-bkln-low-cost-floating-rate-debt-index-etf-4_62-yield

Investors Find New Safe Place to Hide: Chinese Bonds
By Anna Hirtenstein
July 13, 2020 5:30 am ET
/Foreign investors are increasingly buying debt issued by the Chinese government for yields and safety
U.S.-China Tensions Rise Amid Hong Kong and Trade Concerns
While the U.S. deals with the novel coronavirus, racial injustice and a presidential campaign, tensions with China continue to unfold. WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explains. Photo: Wang Zhao/AFP
Investors seeking shelter from the turbulence in markets have found a new haven: Chinese sovereign bonds.
Foreign capital flowed into locally denominated Chinese government bonds in the second quarter.../
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-find-new-safe-place-to-hide-chinese-bonds-11594632600
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-government-bond-fund-a-4812C0399?c3apidt=p40875349363&gclsrc=aw.ds&&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqtotbEK1iCEH1dqMAj3n0RFxIrK6snqMLFmK-rQcB3M4iDy5gPEZQaAu9BEALw_wcB
https://www.manulifeim.com/institutional/global/en/viewpoints/fixed-income/china-fixed-income-a-safe-haven-asset-in-uncertain-times?cid=US-EN_MIM_IN_PS_AdWords_Ambition_General_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611_ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_source=PS&utm_medium=AdWords&utm_campaign=Ambition_General&utm_term=ChinaBond_ChinaBondMarket&utm_content=US-EN_MIM_IN_GA_CS_TA_00_BR_00_00_AW_00_20200611&gclid=Cj0KCQjw9b_4BRCMARIsADMUIyqatxsJ9RTnlR2Cvt6AlPW_CIq0BdRHWPoIzSqYJecy0Reufl8pM7caAoRZEALw_wcB

Jim Cramer says ...
“The charts, as interpreted by the legendary Larry Williams, suggest the S&P could climb another 4% or 5% over the next two weeks, but come July 28, he expects the market to start rolling over,” he said. “Given that the expanded unemployment insurance benefits from Washington expire at the end of the month, well, I wouldn’t be surprised” if his call turns out to be correct.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbc-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-uses-this-chart-to-predict-the-exact-date-the-stock-market-could-hit-the-skids-2020-07-15
Old_Skeet has been in the trim equity mode for the past month, or so, due to my barometer's extremely overbought stock market reading which keys off of the widely followed S&P 500 Index. Currently, even though I've been trimming, I'm overweight on the equity side of my portfolio but reducing my equity holdings as I write.

yeah
https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2020/02/021820-Presidents.png

In a similar vein, here are a couple excerpts from something I just read:

"It seems like we have dodged a bullet, yet a look under the surface reveals a much sicker market....the S&P 500 is still down 1.88%, but TPA's BIGTECH Index (the top 8 stock in the NASDAQ 100 by market cap) is up an astonishing 48.99% year to date (YTD)....these 8 stocks represent $8 trillion in market cap, which is 29% of the market cap of the S&P 500 ($27.3 trillion). TPA ran the numbers to see just what effect these 8 stocks have had on an index of 500 stocks. The BIGTECH effect has been to add 8.71% of performance to the S&P 500 YTD.

From: This Is Nuts... Again. Reducing Risk As Tech Goes 1999
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357982-this-is-nuts-again-reducing-risk-tech-goes-1999?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-this-is-nuts-again-reducing-risk-as-tech-goes-1999&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-0

@davidrmoran - why the harsh tone? It's the best performing ETF's of 2020, and not the one's who have best since March 1st. I don't follow best performing lists as a rule but some do. It's also possible that many folks who drop by MFO are interested in ETF's. For what it's worth I happen tp own one os those on that list but picked it up before March 1st. Post something you like to talk about why don't you. Then you won't have to read posts you don't like.

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/retirement/retirement-planning-401k-critics-right/
Are Critics Right? Is It Time To Dump Your 401(k) Account?
/PAUL KATZEFF 08:00 AM ET 07/13/2020
Critics, including some high-profile celebrity talking heads, are bashing 401(k) accounts. They claim 401(k)s are riddled with flaws and will burn you later. Are they right? Are you sabotaging your retirement planning by stashing money inside those popular workplace retirement savings plans?/
Put in Roth or sepira ./tdf..
We did both sep ira and tdf