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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    The winners and losers in a payroll tax cut are....
    This is from a Forbes article in Early May. (not behind a pay wall)
    Payroll Tax Cut Winners and Losers
  • Trump extends unemployment payments, defers payroll tax
    https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900516854/in-executive-actions-trump-extends-unemployment-benefits
    This would seem to have investing implications. I‘ve heard elsewhere that the payroll tax is suspended (oops - “deferred“) only for those earning less than $100,000 per year (last year’s tax return). My pension and SS don’t total that much, but I could easily bump up over that $100K with a substantial distribution from traditional IRA for a major expense. Suspect others are in a similar situation. Also, anyone doing a Roth conversion (or who did one last year) might push their reported income over $100K in the process and miss out on this latest perk. These knee-jerk tax policies set your head spinning.
    No idea how “deferring” payroll taxes until January is going to help anyone. Stimulate the economy & stock market until just past the election? ... Than let it rain (or something like that) on the next fella who takes over in January with the payroll tax having to double? Good grief.
  • Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/stock-market-experts-sees-a-monstrous-rally-rally-taking-hold-next-week-if-one-recent-trend-holds-11596827276
    /Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds
    Last Updated: Aug. 7, 2020 at 6:55 p.m. ET
    Could epicenter stocks surge by 30% next week? Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks so. Getty Images
    The best start to an August for the U.S. stock market in years might get even better, as soon as next week, if the forecast from Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is accurate./
    Not sure if monstrous rally is coming, but DJI gained >36%% since the March crash.
    We have been buying qqq and vht/couple bio tech and Healthcare etf recently. Glad did not pull out to all cash few months back. Couple friends at work did this and missed the slow upward late spring summer rally
    If covid19 data improves/ stabilized next few weeks/month with minimal deaths economy may recover sooner than later
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    There an easy way to not pay early redemption. I have done it several times over the years but usually I don't buy a fund that has penalty fee over 30 days. If you don't know how to avoid the penalty then you will continue not to know it :-)
    I sold IOFIX at the end of 02/2020 and I'm not going to buy until I feel better about it. Most of my money is in HY Munis.
    I did hold a small position in EIXIX instead for several weeks. This fund hold higher rated securitized bonds than IOFIX based on the fact it didn't fall so much in March.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    @msf,
    I always want to keep my options available for possible opportunities. Sterling Capital allowed Stratton Fund investors to open other "I" share class accounts once the Stratton accounts were consolidated under Sterling Capital moniker. A couple of exchanges from my rebranded Stratton fund allowed me to purchase "I" share class of Sterling Capital's Special Opportunities and Equity Income funds.
    If I remember correctly, Bridgeway Large Cap Value and Large Cap Growth funds were sold to American Beacon using their moniker (still managed by Bridgeway); however, you could not do an exchange of money from the American Beacon Bridgeway Large Cap Value or Large Cap Growth fund "I" share class into other American Beacon funds to receive their "I" share class equivalent.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312511312700/d256598d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Value reorganization).
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916006/000119312516453235/d125121d497.htm (Bridgeway Large Cap Growth reorganization)
    American Beacon funds prospectus excerpt:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322820001973/abf-html2217_485bpos.htm#chapter_5-sect1_2_2037
    Exchange Policies
    ...The eligibility and minimum investment requirement must be met for the class into which the shareholder is exchanging. Fund shares may be acquired through exchange only in U.S. states and Territories in which they can be legally sold. Each Fund reserves the right to charge a fee and to modify or terminate the exchange privilege at any time. Each Fund reserves the right to refuse exchange requests if, in the judgment of a Fund, the transaction would adversely affect a Fund and its shareholders. Please refer to the section titled "Frequent Trading and Market Timing" for information on the Funds' policies regarding frequent purchases, redemptions, and exchanges.
    It is possible that FPA may introduce a "I" share class of the Crescent fund. FPA plans to offer a "supra" institutional class of the Crescent fund which has an extremely high initial minimum:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/924727/000110465920081174/a20-24082_1485apos.htm
    Who knows what will happen with FPA once their international funds (International Value and Paramount funds) are transferred.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    I have held FPPTX for numerous years. After Rodriguez moved up in the company, the fund was never the same afterwards. I also owned QRSVX some years ago, but it didn't really move for the several years I owned it so I sold it.
    The combination is supposed to be complete in the fourth quarter 2020. There will not be any sizeable capital gains distributions as the FPPTX is in a CG loss position according to M*. Have not seen any new SEC filings yet.
    FPPTX is less than double the size of total AUM ($200 million) larger than QRSVX ($132 million). Keeping the "I" shares will be interesting. Can I exchange money into other FPA "I" funds?
    I will post any filings as they come up.
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    RPIEX= 3.97% of RPSIX portfolio. Not much comfort, but not missing that boat entirely. Meanwhile, RPSIX isn't doing so great. Just not a TOTAL stinker in 2020.
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    AFAIK, the longest redemption fee period ever was imposed on (no surprise) Vanguard Horizon funds. These were four funds created as long term investments on August 14, 1995. The fee was 1% on shares redeemed in less than five years.
    Here's the last prospectus (Feb 27, 2001) where the fee was imposed on all the funds.
    On April 6, 2001, Vanguard made changes to three of the four funds:
    Vanguard Global Asset Allocation (VHAAX) was designated to be terminated on July 27, 2001.
    Vanguard Global Equity fund (VHGEX) ended its redemption fee.
    Vanguard Strategic Equity Fund (VSEQX) ended its redemption fee.
    It would be a while longer before Vanguard dropped the redemption fee on its Capital Opportunity Fund (VHCOX). And now you know where the 'H' in the ticker came from.
    (Note: I exclude funds like Twentieth Century Gifttrust, which could not be redeemed, period, for at least ten years.)
  • IOFIX Imposes 1% Redemption Fee
    Thanks Charles. IOFIX since the crisis bottom has been the bond trade of the decade along with its sisters BDKAX, SEMPX, and others in the beaten down mortgage space. The last such trade was junk corporates in 2009 and before that emerging markets debt in 1999. Back further was junk corporates in 1991. Notice the theme here? Black swan events in 2020 (Covid liquidity crisis) 2008 (housing crisis) 1997/1998 (Asian currency crisis) and 1990 (Drexel Lambert) And after each crisis everyone was too scared to venture back in thinking a repeat is right around the corner. I love the fund company has imposed this fee. It will make for a more stable asset base.
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    The cost of the residential natural gas itself has gone down from 29¢ per therm (July 2019) to 24¢ per therm (July 2020). Not a down a third, just down a sixth.
    Cost of gas to your home is a total cost. That depends on how much gas you use, which varies year by year, and also on the cost of the last mile transport to your home. The latter is around 4x-6x times the cost of the gas itself. So that's the real determinant of cost, and a pretty stable one. I would guess that it is not a cost factor incurred by commercial users.
    Still, looking at average total residential gas costs, they dropped by about 7% over the same one year period, from $24.03 to $22.32. (That's attributable almost entirely to slightly less use per household.)
    https://www.pge.com/tariffs/Residential.pdf
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    "Do these people EVER walk into a grocery store ...?"
    Sounding like a broken record, I'll repeat that people tend to notice "pain" (rising prices, investment losses) more than they notice positive events (prices going down, investments gaining). Also that the CPI incorporates prices of everything, not just the ones going up. Perhaps we need an ulcer index for prices?
    It's likely you haven't noticed the deals one can get now on airplane trips. Wait, you mean you're not taking advantage of all these travel bargains? :-)
    WaPo: For the unemployed, rising grocery prices strain budgets even more
    Beef and veal prices rose 20.2 percent, and eggs rose 10.4 percent since February, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/04/grocery-prices-unemployed/
    Overall inflation has not been a pressing concern since the recession touched down in February. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said consumer prices have been kept in check due to weak demand, especially in sectors such as travel and hospitality that have been most affected by the pandemic. But food prices are the exception.
  • T. Rowe Price Institutional Core Plus Fund being reorganized into T. Rowe Price Total Return Fund
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1169187/000174177320002223/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Institutional Core Plus Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated October 1, 2019, as supplemented
    On July 31, 2020, the Board of Directors (“Board”) of the T. Rowe Price Institutional Core Plus Fund (“Fund”) approved restructuring the Fund’s fees and expenses, effective September 1, 2020. In addition, the Board approved a plan of reorganization pursuant to which the Fund will transfer substantially all of its assets and liabilities to the T. Rowe Price Total Return Fund (“Acquiring Fund”) in exchange for I Class shares of equal value of the Acquiring Fund on or about November 30, 2020 (“Reorganization”). Following the transfer, the I Class shares received in the exchange will be distributed to the Fund’s shareholders in complete liquidation of the Fund. The Reorganization does not require approval by the Fund’s shareholders.
    The Fund currently pays T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (“T. Rowe Price”) an all-inclusive management fee of 0.40% based on the Fund’s average daily net assets that includes investment management services and ordinary, recurring operating expenses (with certain limited exceptions). Effective September 1, 2020, the management fee will no longer include ordinary recurring operating expenses, and the Fund will incur its ordinary operating expenses directly. The management fee will consist of two components—an “individual fund fee,” and a “group fee” that declines as the combined assets of the T. Rowe Price Funds rise, so shareholders benefit from the overall growth in mutual fund assets. On September 1, 2020, the annual group fee rate was 0.29%. The individual fund fee, also applied to the fund’s average daily net assets, will be 0.08%, which, when combined with the group fee rate, will result in a combined management fee rate of 0.37% of average daily net assets. In order to ensure that Fund shareholders will not pay more under the new fee and expense structure, T. Rowe Price has agreed to indefinitely waive the Fund’s fees and/or bear any expenses (excluding interest; expenses related to borrowings, taxes, and brokerage and other transaction costs; or nonrecurring, extraordinary expenses, which are the expenses excluded under the Fund’s all-inclusive management fee) that would cause the Fund’s ratio of expenses to average daily net assets to exceed 0.40%...
  • David’s August MFO Commentary ....Here!
    David and colleagues decided to publish an entire encyclopedia on investing this month. Packed full of graphs, charts and analysis with the ambitious goal of assessing relative risk / reward for many different approaches (emphasis on risk). Some “end of the world” investment ideas are suggested, playing off the global warming theme. Everybody seems to agree that oil as an investment is in its death-throes. (I’ll submit that sometimes the consensus is wrong.) Charles Lynn Bolin offers a fascinating look at the bucket approach, which he uses. Personally, I never met a pie-chart I didn’t like, which I believe ties-in nicely in planning a bucket approach. Bucketing should ring a bell with Ol’ Skeet and many others here who use it - perhaps under a different name (like sleeves).
    One fund David looks at is RPIEX - Price’s Global Dynamic Bond fund. Dang it. I thought about that one some time back, but it was in the dumpster than. I even posted on the board and we all (?) agreed it had the characteristics of a perennial loser. Guess what? The fund has come alive and posted some nice YTD returns. David also re-examines RPHYX as a cash alternative. There’s more market neutral and alternative type offerings detailed by David and team than you can shake a finger at. I once owned Calimos’ version. High fees and poor performance than.
    Sorry I haven’t digested much of the commentary. I will in time. Right now it’s time to crank up the mower and tackle some 8” tall grass. My everlasting gratitude to David and the team at mfo for these timely incisive monthly reports.
    Link to August 1, 2020 Commentary: https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2020/08/august-1-2020/
  • Exciting New Territory for the S&P 500
    I think the pundits are missing the elephant in the room - that being the election year impact. Normally you’d hear a lot about it. But with the country at high anxiety (largely, but not only due to Covid-19), there’s been little note of the fact that whichever administration is in office leading to an election, levers will be pulled, proposals floated, decisions made that attempt to goose the markets,
    Conventional wisdom says the Fed sits back during the pre-election period and does nothing - not wanting to appear partisan. But, whether because they’ve been intimidated by the administration, or whether out of real concern for the Covid disruptions (I suspect both), the Fed has been anything but an impartial bystander this time around.
    Can it last? For now ... yes. And the expansionary fiscal / monetary policies underway now will have lasting impact on the economy - for better or for worse. However ... normally things appear sunniest just before the storm. Anyone banking on the current euphoria lasting thru November is playing a dangerous game.
    PS - I wish I could tell folks how to invest now. But I can’t. So much depends on one’s risk tolerance, age, time horizon, needs. Ray Dalio in January proclaimed to his investors: “Cash is trash.” Well, ... Yes Ray. I agree with you. However, it wasn’t so “trashy” in March / early April. If you had dry power in the form of cash than, the markets were waiting with open arms for it to be put to work.
    Dalio
  • The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    The Federal Reserve is completing a year-long policy review and is expected to announce the results soon.
    One big change would be a harder commitment to getting inflation higher, through a pledge not to raise rates until it hits at least 2%. Markets have been betting on higher inflation, with surging gold prices, a falling dollar and a rush to inflation-indexed bonds.
    Yardeni said the approach would be “wildly bullish” for alternative asset classes and in particular growth stocks and precious metals like gold and silver. Guha said the Fed’s moves would see “real yields persistently lower, the dollar lower, volatility lower, credit spreads lower and equities higher.”
    https://cnbc.com/2020/08/04/the-fed-is-expected-to-make-a-major-commitment-to-ramping-up-inflation-soon.html
  • ZEOIX misses
    It's official, Tailored Brands filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/investing/tailored-brands-bankruptcy/index.html
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    Here's the NYTimes link:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/business/mutual-fund-winners-stocks-bonds.html
    I ran across this study a couple of months ago. You can find a list of Prof. Choi's papers (including links to free versions) here:
    https://faculty.som.yale.edu/jameschoi/research/
    The referenced paper goes by a different title in that list. There it is called Carhart (1997) Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Disappears Out of Sample
    If you want to read a version (virtually the same) with the title mentioned in the NYTimes article, here's another link. This version is not easily downloadable.
    http://docplayer.net/141854703-Did-mutual-fund-return-persistence-persist-a-replication-and-extension-of-carhart-1997.html
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    NY Times article:
    "A new study finds that hot mutual funds generally don’t keep outperforming from year to year, overturning an important finding from the 1990s."
    Mutual Fund Winners Don't Last
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    “Effective October 1, 2020, the T. Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX) will change its name to the T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond Index Fund to better reflect how the fund is managed. Additionally, we will change the fund’s fee structure and lower fees, also effective October 1, 2020. We will also launch a new I Class, which will incept on October 5, 2020 and be publicly available on October 7, 2020.”
    Price periodically changes a fund’s name to better reflect its style. Couple others come to mind that underwent name changes: TRRIX, TRIGX. Likely many more. Wondering whether any other of their index funds will receive fee reductions?
    Above excerpt pulled from email to clients. Here’s a link to their actual public announcement - LINK