I have no bitcoin/crypto experience at all except for knowing that it has been incredibly volatile and speculative throughout its history. Yet I'm intrigued by the following article about upcoming momentum fueled by government support for bitcoin as an asset class. The only investment vehicles I'm aware of for bitcoin are the etf's GBTC and IBIT as well as other etf's listed in the article below. Trump seems to want to make the USA the bitcoin capital of the world. If he keeps his word (a big if) then might bitcoin become an asset class and therefore even more investable? Elon Musk holds a large amount of bitcoin.
I welcome thoughts and opinions about bitcoin. Thanks in advance for any and all comments!
Goldman Sachs Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings To $710 Million
BENZINGA
Nov-15-2024 10:11 a.m. ET
Goldman Sachs (GS) has dramatically increased its exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs, according to its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.
What Happened: The Wall Street powerhouse disclosed $710 million invested across multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the quarter ending September 30. A 13F filing is a quarterly report required by the SEC for institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets.
Major Holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust
The filing highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust , with 12.7 million shares valued at $461 million.
This marks an 83% increase from its August holdings of 6.9 million shares, then valued at $281 million, and solidifies Goldman's position as the second-largest holder of IBIT, trailing only Millennium Management, which leads with $844 million in holdings.
Diversifying Bitcoin ETF Investments
Goldman also boosted its positions in other prominent Bitcoin ETFs. Notable increases include:
Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF : 1.7 million shares worth $95.5 million, a 13% rise.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC): 1.4 million shares valued at $71.8 million, a 116% increase.
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) : 650,961 shares worth $22.5 million, marking a 156% rise.
The bank also reported smaller stakes in Bitcoin ETFs offered by Invesco Galaxy, WisdomTree and ARK 21Shares.
Institutional Confidence In A Booming Market
Goldman's expanded investments coincide with record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recently surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in net assets, an impressive milestone considering IBIT's launch occurred just this January.
The rising momentum aligns with broader market optimism for a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged support for crypto mining and a national Bitcoin reserve.
Goldman's aggressive moves into Bitcoin ETFs underscore the shifting landscape for digital assets, signaling increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset class.

Since when have mutual funds in their prospectuses felt a need to caution investors that domestic political events might result in loss of money?
”Some political leaders around the world (including in the U.S. and certain European nations) have been and may be elected on protectionist platforms, raising questions about the future of global free trade. Global trade disruption, significant introductions of trade barriers and bilateral trade frictions, together with any future downturns in the global economy resulting therefrom, could adversely affect the financial performance of the Fund and its investments.”
Principal Risks of Investing in the Fund / Geopolitical Risk
@bee / The concern noted would seem to be right down your pipe. Obviously Cohen & Steers felt a need to caution investors that politics might indeef “interfere with your investing.”
(Duly warned, I went ahead and initiated an investment in this fund today.)
@Baseball_Fan - You have in the past invested with John Hussman. Has he had any comments lately re the election outcome and how it may affect the investment landscape? Just curious if you happen to know. I don’t know if you still read Bill Fleckenstein. I continue to, despite being miles apart politically. I do learn a lot about investing from him. I mention this, because some of your wild assertions like ”you have yellen issuing multiplies of standard deviation of short term tbills to keep bond volatility and rates suppressed to allegedly get her gal elected” appear to be right out of Bill’s playbook.
(Generally, we capitalize the first letter of a proper noun. So your “yellen” is an unusual departure from standard English - whether intentional or by oversight.)

Zero or low costs for all our meds too (Optum, Costco, CVS)
Drug plans often get little attention when comparing MAPD plans. For most people there's little difference - generics, preferred or otherwise, are either "free" or dirt cheap on most plans. But when it comes to brand name drugs, the difference between plans can be huge.
Over the past few years, drug plans, both Part D and MAPD, have been moving from copay (flat amount per item) to coinsurance (percentage cost). Brand name drugs with four (or more) digit costs are becoming way more expensive.
Consider Prolia, a brand name drug used by many for osteoporosis. (I know a few people using it.) Plans typically list it as a tier 4 (brand name, non-preferred) drug. The manufacturer gives its list price (wholesale acquisition price) as $1,786.12. It is injected twice yearly.
Tufts Preferred Access PPO charges 50% for tier 4 drugs. That would come to $1,786 yearly. (Medicare.gov says $1,62x).
BC/BS Blue SaverRx charges 49% copay for tier 4 drugs. That comes out about the same as Tufts. (Medicare.gov says $1,59x.)
Or you could get a BC/BS PPO plan that charges just $285/dose ($570/year), but it comes with an $87/mo premium. The all in cost is about the same, at $1,614.
One point here is that what looks like an obvious candidate can instantly become dubious depending on one's individual situation.
Another point is that drugs can shift the whole landscape, even tilting it toward MA plans.
Medicare.gov shows no Part D policy charging under $1,900 in Boston when one includes Prolia. But it reports that Mass General Brigham PPO's all in cost, including Prolia, is "just" $600/year. That's a $1,300 difference.
One might be willing to pay the cost of a Medigap plan for the peace of mind that comes with Original Medicare. Many people are. But adding yet another $1,300 on top of that due to Part D costs could give one pause. The good news is that starting in 2025, drug costs will be capped at $2,000, so exposure isn't unlimited.

There is another disturbance in the Caribbean with a 40% of developing into a named tropical depression, tropical depression "12" 600 miles west of Cape Verde islands that will probably become a hurricane and a another disturbance nearer the Cape Verde islands with an 80% chance of forming a tropical depression.
All from FEMAs daly email

From an email that I received from Rondure ("Final Shareholder Letter"):
September 25, 2024
Dear Fellow Shareholders:
It is with heavy hearts and thoughtful consideration that we inform you that the Rondure New World Fund (RNWOX/RNWIX) will be liquidated on October 18, 2024, and with this closure, we will also be closing Rondure Global Advisors.
The economic landscape of our emerging markets-focused strategies has been challenging for some time. Our entire team has been dedicated to facing those challenges with the constant objective to achieve long-term positive returns for our clients and investors. Unfortunately, recent unforeseen developments within our business have forced us to reevaluate our ability to continue. It is a painful outcome and certainly not a decision we anticipated ever having to make, particularly when we think emerging markets remain such an interesting and compelling long-term investment. We did not make this decision lightly, but ultimately, consideration of the economic and operational realities of continuing the firm have led us to realize closing is the best outcome for our clients.
As an investor in the Rondure New World Fund, you have two options: a) redeem your account prior to October 18, 2024, or b) receive a check for the value of the account shortly after October 18th. Note: If you hold the New World Fund in a taxable account, the IRS will consider either option to be a taxable event.
We would like to thank you for all the years together. It was truly a pleasure serving you; we wish we could continue. We are proud of Rondure and the contribution we’ve made to international investing and diversity within our industry. If you, like us, remain intrigued by the long-term opportunities in the emerging markets space, we have talked with Grandeur Peak Global Advisors about allowing Rondure clients to invest in their soft closed Grandeur Peak Emerging Markets Fund (GPEIX). If you’re interested in exploring this option, please reach out to [email protected] to discuss their Fund and a purchase waiver.
Please let us know if we can be of assistance through this transition, or feel free to call the Rondure Funds shareholder services team at 1-855-775-3337.
Thank you for your understanding and support.
Best regards,
The Rondure Global Advisors Team
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. To obtain a Rondure Fund prospectus, containing this and other information, visit www.rondureglobal.com or call 1.855.775.3337. To obtain a Grandeur Peak Funds prospectus, containing investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, visit www.grandeurpeakglobal.com or call 1-855-377-PEAK (7325).
Rondure Funds and Grandeur Peak Funds are distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC (Member FINRA / SIPC). Northern Lights Distributors, LLC, is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors or Grandeur Peak Global Advisors.
20240911-3842017

@crash. We never got that far north. We sailed from San Francisco to the cape and then as far north as Loreto. In the summer we went diving every day and even I caught stuff. My dad used to tell me that if it weren’t for sailing I could have been rich. But I have some great sea stories.

Several brokerages have their quirks with ETFs. Like you, I've also written on this before.
Leveraged or inverse ETFs.

• Vanguard won't allow purchases of ETFs such as QLD.
  
• Fidelity requires you to sign a statement affirming that you're a sophisticated investor, you've done your own research, you're investing aggressively, you know what you're doing.
  
• Schwab requires you to sign a similar statement, though tailored specifically to leveraged and inverse funds.
  
• Merrill puts up a big warning with content similar to the above agreements when you place a buy order for these ETFs (e.g. very volatile, not suitable for long term investing) but doesn't require you to sign anything or block the purchase.

Nontransparent actively managed ETFs.

• Vanguard has no problem with purchases of ETFs such as CAPE and TCHP.
  
• Fidelity warns about this but permits purchases.
  
• Schwab has no problems, no warnings.
  
• Merrill doesn't seem to care about transparency per se, but blocks CAPE (not TCHP), sort of like Vanguard and leveraged ETFs. Merrill just says that CAPE is flaky (poor tracking and/or volatile). It gives the same (and more) warnings about leveraged ETFs but lets you trade leveraged ETFs.

QLTY is definitely an oddball at Merrill.
According to this page, Merrill blocks ETPs on a case by case basis, rather than categorically like Vanguard and leveraged ETFs. However, Merrill does (for some such ETFs) allow you to sign a "hold harmless" agreement similar to what Fidelity requires for you to buy leveraged ETFs.
Alternative or nontraditional ETFs.

• Vanguard has no problem with purchases of ETFs like CCOR, PHDG, or HYIN.
  
• Fidelity requires you to sign the same statement as with leveraged ETFs.
  
• Schwab has no problems, no warnings.
  
• Merrill blocks these (as it blocks QLTY), but is fine with another nontraditional bond ETF, HYHG.

It's likely that one can trade most of these ETFs at Merrill after agreeing to "hold Merrill harmless" for whatever happens.
One can argue that Merrill is superior in that it actually screens ETPs rather than block them categorically. One can argue that other brokerages are better because you know just by the type of an ETF whether you can trade it there. Merrill is clearly atypical. I'd call it weird, but that might sound political :-).

ML also are strange about certain ETFs, as I have written before. You cannot buy (I believe, have not checked recently) CCOR, QLTY [!], or CAPE. You cannot reinvest divs/cg w JQUA. Or some others. There are other queer restrictions, none of which exist at say Fido. I will try and remember what they were.

Post-Conference Notes by YBB
Rates were maintained - fed funds 5.25-5.50%, bank reserves rate 5.4%, discount rate 5.5%. Treasury QT continues at the reduced level of -$25 billion/mo, but MBS QT remain at -$35 billion/mo.
Inflation target remains +2% average. The confidence in progress on inflation is higher. All aspects are showing improvements - goods, services, headline & core PCE. There is also balanced progress on the dual mandate - inflation & jobs. The current monetary policy is restrictive & its effects are showing up with expected lag, especially in housing.
Economy is growing moderately. Capex is rising. Recessions isn't in the cards for the near future. The pandemic & its aftermath has upended lot of conventional wisdom & rules.
Labor market remains strong. Wage growth is OK. Surveys seem worse that what the aggregate data are showing.
There were specific discussions about rate cuts. There was no consensus for July (this meeting) cut. But September cut would depend on additional data. There are risks in cutting too early vs waiting too long. There may be multiple cuts as there is room with the fed funds at the current level, but larger 50 bps or higher cuts are unlikely.
The Fed is keeping track of the developments on CBDC but there are no plans for digital-dollar. As the Fed is a payment processor itself, it is watching the instant payment aspects of digital currency.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1580/thread

@Charles, good list of Morningstar/MORN achievements as it has made the successful transition from a small-time mutual fund information provider to a global fintech power house - sort of a mini-"Bloomberg".
In the meantime, M* has done everything possible to turnoff or upset its retail investors - remember, those were the guinea pigs that debugged lot of M* software and helped M* with feature requests (M* software was free then and M* was also quite responsive). Now lot of those are very expensive M* professional products. M* now thinks that it can afford to lose a couple of hundred retail clients to gain one professional client.
But further progress to become a real "Bloomberg" may not be easy. If not careful, like Icarus, it may fly too close to the sun.
To pick some items from the list:
"DBRS Morningstar – Independent rating services and …"
OK, but it hasn't become one of the nationally recognized credit agencies (NRSROs). Problem - its credit rating methodologies are opaque, mostly computer-driven, and it won't disclose companies handled per employee.
https://www.sec.gov/about/divisions-offices/office-credit-ratings/current-nrsros
"Sustainalytics – Sustainable investment strategies and security-level ESG research and ratings …"
Well, that was a hugely mistimed ESG capex that misfired. M* can put all of the ESG stuff on its fund pages, but the tide in the US has turned away from ESG. In Europe, ESG is still selling.
"Advisor Managed Accounts – Managed accounts for registered investment advisors"
Recent dumping M* TAMP will hurt the RIA business.
https://riabiz.com/a/2024/6/24/morningstars-sale-of-tamps-12-billion-book-of-business-to-assetmark-ends-two-year-run-that-fell-short-on-growth-whether-rias-stick-or-flee-will-determine-fate-of-deal
I am not negative on M*, but I count myself among the concerned. An irony is that not long ago, I used to link to live M* Charts, but now link to live charts from PV (also very limited now) or StockCharts or TestFol (a free newcomer).
TestFol MORN Max

@Shostakovich - I just plucked these two items quickly off a google search. However I am of the opinion that former CEO Eddie Lampert basically drove it into the ground. I never did understand why Berkowitz was so enamored with him other than he saw prospects for all the real estate controlled by Sears and later Seritage Growth Properties.
1) What happened to Sears Holdings?
It was the 20th-largest retailing company in the United States in 2015. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on October 15, 2018, and sold its assets to ESL Investments in 2019. The new owner moved Sears assets to its newly formed subsidiary Transformco and after that, Sears Holdings Corporation was closed.
2) What caused the downfall of Sears?
The Downfall of Sears: A Failure to Embrace Digital ...
Sears' inability to execute on delivering these omnichannel experiences is just one of the many ways this former retail hero let down its once-booming customer base. Sears ultimately failed because of its reluctance to fully believe in the consequences of a rapidly changing retail landscape.

Fidelity’s card has arrived. Plenty of available credit. Haven’t gotten around to activating it yet. The paperwork that came along says no interest on purchases until around the end of December 2025. Have contracted to have a major landscape / outdoor infrastructure project done this summer. Around $20K - but could go a bit higher. I called the contractor today and they will take the card and do not charge a convenience fee. Sounds too good to be true,
Being very conservative (and taking a simplistic look), 20K invested for 12 months @ 5% = $1,000
Then there’s the 2% cash-back that will go into my CM account. That’s another $400
So it looks on the surface like an easy $1400 gain on a 20K charge. More importantly to me, it would allow time to stagger distributions from my IRAs (the ultimate funding source) over a 12 month period. Not worried about a potential near-term “hit” to credit rating, as I rarely use credit.
- What I don’t know is whether there are minimum monthly payments required starting with month #1. I would certainly expect there are. Any thoughts what that monthly payment might be on a 20K balance?
- Re the 2% “cash back” … Is that by chance considered taxable income?
- Exactly when does that 2% cash-back get deposited anyway? End of monthly billing cycle? Would it still work even along with the free credit offer?
- If you returned an item 60 days after buying it for a merchant refund back to your card, would Fidelity need to go into your CM account and withdraw the 2% cash back credit?
And thank you to all of you for all the ideas and suggestions the thread generated!

It is odd that a company like Boeing could fall apart while others like Toyota can continue to build very reliable products, but I think it is due to a common factor GREED
The same ongoing disasters are very common in health care where the bean counters and private equity have been allowed to take over, putting profits as their only priority
Barron's article on HCA is a good example, but even non profit hospitals have thrown the professionals out of the window and make decisions based on margins only also
Doctors are told what to do, how many patients to see, what medical devices to use or not use based on economics.
Occasionally they object and get fired. But this whistleblower won.
https://www.capecodtimes.com/story/news/2024/05/16/cardiac-procedure-medicare-claims-cape-cod-hospital-richard-zelman-tavr/73721900007/
Patients ( ie customers) suffer
My wife and I are going nuts tying to ensure our daughter's procedure at a major Medical Center is authorized and paid for. It has been almost a month and we are both experienced health care professionals and know what to ask.
And the CEOs of these crappy places make thousands of times more than the workers

@sma3 & @Sven
I have been fortunate in my life time to have made several trips into the BWCA (or BWCAW as it's labeled now). A handful of those trips were made well before cell phones or even SAT phones were in existence. To me the BWCA is called a 'wilderness area' for a reason and you accept that knowing that it's the price you pay for admission. I go there to escape all of societies(?) conveniences and to experience life by one's skills, wits and knowledge. It's glorious.
I can see where it gives many pause however and just within the last month SAT phones were used to summon Search & Rescue assistance for two groups of canoeists HERE. The first ended tragically while the second fared better. My guess is that many more SAT phones will be rented out to canoeing parties in the coming years.
As for cell and/or smart phones, I've always left mine in my vehicle upon entry. Cell service in the BWCA is very spotty at best and most definitely should not be relied upon. Smart phones are good for taking great photo's though and they tend to be small and light weight.

Just noticed - it’s at 4.366% as of 9 AM today. That’s down from over 4.5% last week. Was off sharply yesterday. Don’t pay a lot of attention to bond funds. My two “bond” holdings, PRIHX and LSST both gravitate to the short end of the curve. It hasn’t escaped me that PRWCX has suffered this year due to its bond holdings, as have virtually any other funds with exposure.
Mainly posted FYI

CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida (Reuters) -Boeing's new Starliner astronaut capsule was poised for launch on Monday night on a much-delayed first crewed test flight to orbit, as the company scrambles to compete with Elon Musk's SpaceX for a greater share of lucrative NASA business.
The CST-100 Starliner with two astronauts aboard was due for liftoff at 10:34 p.m. from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carried atop an Atlas V rocket furnished by the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance (ULA).

Hoping for the best on this one.
Background Info from Wickipedia:

Atlas V is an expendable launch system and the fifth major version in the Atlas launch vehicle family. It was originally designed by Lockheed Martin, now being operated by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing. It is used for DoD, NASA, and Commercial payloads. It is America's longest-serving active rocket. After 87 launches, in August 2021 ULA announced that Atlas V would be retired, and all 29 remaining launches had been sold. As of January 2024, 17 launches remain. Other future ULA launches will use the new Vulcan Centaur rocket.
Each Atlas V launch vehicle consists of two main stages. The first stage is powered by a Russian engine manufactured by Energomash and burning kerosene and liquid oxygen. The Centaur upper stage is powered by one or two American RL10 engine(s) manufactured by Aerojet Rocketdyne and burns liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen. Strap-on solid rocket boosters are used in most configurations.

”This column should not be read as a criticism of low-risk investments. They aren’t required for younger investors, who need not worry about redeeming their funds at the wrong time (at least, if they are sensible), but they are critical for retirees who are withdrawing their assets. Ballast prevents them from entering a bear market spiral in which they spend ever-larger percentages of their portfolio to realize the same amount of money. Do that for long, and you are in real trouble.”
Do younger investors (ie ages 25-45) really pay much attention to portfolio construction / hedging? Sure, some do. And likely if they’re reading this board they pay greater attention than the average working stiff with a job, kids in school, a big mortgage and 25 + years to retirement.
Good article. Hopefully (as the author suggests) well considered portfolio specific hedging may reduce short term volatility for those already in the withdrawal stage. In no way, shape or form would I ever argue that hedging improves longer term performance. And … there’s always the option (hedge) of moving a big chunk into cash and / or CDs, as one well-heeled poster appears to have done recently. As a sometimes landscaper / gardener, I’m aware that hedges come in many different shapes and colors.

Might be worth building a small short on Trump Media. Markets so crazy I’ve actually got smallish short positions using PSQ & SDS. Under 2% of holdings, but allowing me to stay invested in some less frothy areas (including David’s pick - LCORX).
FD may rightly observe that 2% isn’t enough to “move the needle.” However - it does contribute to better sleep. BTW - I believe the investing landscape is likely to look a lot different after November, regardless of the outcome.

@sma3: I take an occasional winger on a M* undervalued stock, but the proof of the methodology is MOAT, my largest single equity holding. I note the space devoted to the index/fund in the linked M* article. Other flavors of ETF equity LCB funds have come along (BFOR, CAPE, and all manner of « quality » entries), yet MOAT is still out front besting the SPY. 2022 performance demonstrated the resilience of the method in down markets. In its bottom-quintile 2021, it still returned 24%. Members are understandably miffed at M* for various misdeeds; moat investing deserves praise.

It was 12% of my bond holdings. Now I need to figure out how I want to rearrange the chairs on the bond deck

@WABAC, DSEEX is an equity fund following the CAPE process, isn't it? What am I missing here?