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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price Global Real Estate Fund manager change
    M* shows a manager change at the New Year, 2018-2019. Not long ago!
    "The fund is notable for what it doesn't own. The focus here is on traditional real estate, so the fund typically doesn't hold data center and infrastructure REITs, such as cell tower companies. The fund has historically tended to be light on healthcare REITs, owing to the long-term length of leases and specialized uses that potentially limit resale value. However, Jones has added to the portfolio's healthcare holdings, so that as of March 31, 2020, it was only slightly underweight in that area relative to the Wilshire US Real Estate Securities Index." I have owned TRREX, but not for long. I note the DISTRIBUTIONS have indeed been juicy.
  • FAIRX - blast from the past
    Fell for both CGMFX and FAIRX. Did okay on CGMFX; got out of FAIRX too late to have realized net gains beyond what a decent bond fund would have given me over the same period.
    Kick myself a bit on FAIRX because I knew I wasn't comfortable with the way Bruce was getting waaaay too overexposed, as well as some of his bizarre personnel decisions. He was spending a bit too much time drinking his own bathwater, and I ultimately got too nervous and XFER'd out.
    Now, as a rule, I never let such "moonshot" active funds be more than 7.5% of my total portfolio.
  • T. Rowe Price International Discovery Fund manager change
    Found more information on Ben Griffins at M* (including mis-spelling on his name)
    Ben Griffins
    03/01/2020
    Ben Griffins is a vice president of T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. and T. Rowe Price International Ltd and an investment analyst in the Equity Research Team of T. Rowe Price International Ltd, covering European small-cap stocks. Ben has been with the firm since 2006. Prior to joining T. Rowe Price, he was an investment manager with Baillie Gifford. Ben earned a diploma in investment analysis from Stirling University and an M.Eng. in engineering science from Oxford University. He also has earned his Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
    Certification Chartered Financial Analyst
    Education
    M.S. University of Oxford,
    Other Assets Managed
    financials.morningstar.com/fund/management.html?t=PRIDX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • T. Rowe Price International Discovery Fund manager change
    Does anyone has more background information on Ben Griffins? He is listed as co-manager who joined Justin Thomson since March 2020. I would expect this transition plan has been in place for some time - 9 months is a bit short. Perhaps Ben Griffins has experience co-managing other international funds.
  • T. Rowe Price Global Real Estate Fund manager change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1440930/000174177320003676/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price Global Real Estate Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated May 1, 2020
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective April 1, 2021, Jai Kapadia will become portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee and Nina Jones will transition from her role as portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Kapadia joined T. Rowe Price in 2011.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective April 1, 2021, Jai Kapadia will become portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee and Nina Jones will transition from her role as portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Kapadia joined T. Rowe Price in 2011 and his investment experience dates from 2004. During the past five years, Mr. Kapadia served as a member of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee responsible for selecting the fund’s investments in the Asia-Pacific region (beginning 2019) and previously, as an analyst and associate director of research in the Equity Research Group of T. Rowe Price in Hong Kong, covering Asian conglomerates, real estate and Indian pharmaceuticals.
    The date of this supplement is December 21, 2020.
    F173-041 12/21/20
  • T. Rowe Price International Discovery Fund manager change
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313212/000174177320003678/c497.htm
    497 1 c497.htm
    T. Rowe Price International Discovery Fund
    Supplement to Prospectus Dated December 15, 2020
    In section 1, the portfolio manager table under “Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective January 1, 2021, Mr. Thomson will step down as a portfolio manager and Cochair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Griffiths will remain as portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    In section 2, the disclosure under “Portfolio Management” is supplemented as follows:
    Effective January 1, 2021, Mr. Thomson will step down as a portfolio manager and Cochair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee. Mr. Griffiths will remain as portfolio manager and Chair of the fund’s Investment Advisory Committee.
    The date of this supplement is December 21, 2020.
    F38-041 12/21/20
  • The counterintuitive truth about stock market valuations
    John Hussman's market forecasts were consistently very wrong over the past decade.
    Investors should just ignore his prognostications. Link
  • FAIRX - blast from the past
    I haven't heard much about Ken Heebner in years.
    He was a real "cowboy" investment manager back in the day.
    The trailing returns for the CGM Focus Fund occupy the bottom percentile (100) in the Large Blend category for the 1,3,5,10, and 15 year periods ending 12-18-2020.
    The fund's standard deviation is also considerably higher than that of its category peers.
  • Bill Miller: This is one of the 5 greatest buying opportunities of my life
    By March of 2009, Miller's flagship had drawn down about 80 percent. He only drew down half that 11 years later. How does he get the new capital to take advantage?
    That is a sure way to fund his yacht while his investors stay poor. Glad I never invest with Bill Miller. He still paddles his investment view on WealthTrack.
  • Aberdeen Select International Equity Fund to change name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/887210/000110465920137326/tm2038055d13_497.htm
    497 1 tm2038055d13_497.htm 497
    ABERDEEN INVESTMENT FUNDS
    Aberdeen International Sustainable Leaders Fund
    (formerly, Aberdeen Select International Equity Fund)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated December 18, 2020 to the Fund’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional
    Information, each dated February 28, 2020, as supplemented to date
    (the “February 2020 Prospectus and SAI”)
    Effective December 1, 2020, the Aberdeen Select International Equity Fund changed its name to the Aberdeen International Sustainable Leaders Fund and changed its principal investment strategies and portfolio managers as set forth in a separate prospectus and statement of additional information dated December 1, 2020 (the “December 2020 Prospectus and SAI”). The Aberdeen International Sustainable Leaders Fund is currently offered pursuant to the December 2020 Prospectus and SAI. All references to, and information with respect to, the Aberdeen Select International Equity Fund are hereby deleted from the February 2020 Prospectus and SAI.
    This supplement is dated December 18, 2020.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • 2020-21 Capital Gains estimates
    Sorry, posted this in wrong thread: Damn, some pretty nice gains so far this year. Maybe this is the year for the new truck \m/
  • VanEck Vectors Coal ETF to liquidate
    @SomeoneWhoIsNotWhoHeClaimsToBe You should be ashamed for using Honest Abe Lincoln's face on your post. And your forebears if they were truly coal miners and knew what's what would know there isn't a more significant union busting, labor hating party in the U.S. today than the GOP. No new coal jobs were create during Trump's presidency and in fact they hit an all-time low at the end of 2019--https://spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-coal-mining-employment-hits-new-low-at-the-end-of-2019-may-go-lower-in-2020-57173047 Coal is a product that is killing the planet anyway. Instead of saving those 50,000 remaining coal mining jobs, the federal and state governments should provide financial support and re-training for those workers and give them first crack at green jobs under the Green New Deal, which would create a lot more than 50,000 jobs if the GOP and Dixiecrats or today's Blue Dog Dems weren't hell bent on killing it by any means necessary.
  • 2019 Capital Gains distribution estimates
    Damn, some pretty nice gains so far this year. Maybe this is the year for the new truck \m/
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    Wow! Lots to unpack there...I'll just address a couple points.
    DODFX appears to be team managed with 5 of the 8 managers being there since 2001-2007. It's been a mediocre, M* 3-star fund in all report periods, 3 years, 5 years and 10 years.
    What makes you think that somehow that same mgmt team that has only produced 3-star ratings for their entire tenure are all of a sudden gonna turn this fund into something they've been unable to do during their entire 10-20 year tenures?
    DODFX has had negative returns in 4 of the past 10 years, with double-digit losses in 3 of them, 2011, 2015 and 2018, ranging between -11% to -18%. It's actually in the RED in 2020, in a year when worthy FLV funds like CIVVX are UP 5%.
    You've already posted that DODIX has virtually matched DODFX's 10-yr performance with DODIX only having ONE small loss in ONE year. (Actually, it lost -0.59% in 2015 and -0.31% in 2018.)
    All that said, DODFX and DODIX are an apples and oranges comparison, or more accurately, 90/10 Foreign/US stocks vs 90/10 US/Foreign bonds.
    DODFX's SD is 5x-6x that of DODIX and that's not going to change much at all, overnight, or over a 3-10 year period.
    I kindly suggest that you spend a little time examining exactly what these funds respectively own, and what SD and other risk measurements mean (see Investopedia link), and how those two items make this decision pretty easy.
    https://www.investopedia.com/investing/measure-mutual-fund-risk/
    The conclusions that should be drawn are:
    DODFX is a mediocre FLV stock fund that has only kept pace with IC+ bond fund DODIX for the past ten years.
    DODFX is inherently a much higher risk fund than DODIX and the chance of it not meeting investors return expectations is significantly higher.
  • Aberdeen International Equity Fund changed its name
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1413594/000110465920137366/a20-38055_17497.htm
    497 1 a20-38055_17497.htm 497
    ABERDEEN FUNDS
    Aberdeen Emerging Markets Sustainable Leaders Fund
    (formerly, Aberdeen International Equity Fund)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated December 18, 2020 to the Fund’s Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information, each dated February 28, 2020, as supplemented to date
    (the “February 2020 Prospectus and SAI”)
    Effective December 1, 2020, the Aberdeen International Equity Fund changed its name to the Aberdeen Emerging Markets Sustainable Leaders Fund and changed its principal investment strategies, including its 80% policy, benchmark and portfolio managers as set forth in a separate prospectus and statement of additional information dated December 1, 2020 (the “December 2020 Prospectus and SAI”). The Aberdeen Emerging Markets Sustainable Leaders Fund is currently offered pursuant to the December 2020 Prospectus and SAI. All references to, and information with respect to, the Aberdeen International Equity Fund are hereby deleted from the February 2020 Prospectus and SAI.
    This supplement is dated December 18, 2020.
    Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    Still it is interesting that DODIX is not positioned for rising rates while DODFX appears to be. Different teams but same family.
    Yes - I’m surprised to see DODIX out 4.8 years on duration. In terms of volatility, it feels a lot shorter. It’s as if the two D&C teams aren’t communicating. But it also helps explain DODIX’s outperformance this year. Thanks to @MrRuffles for picking up on that (rare) slip. I’d probably have missed it myself.
    Bottom line: DODIX and many others playing that space (intermediate duration / mid and lower investment grade bonds) have had an outsized year that’s not likely to repeat. That’s largely due to the Fed’s efforts on interest rates and in providing at least tacit backing for BBB corporates (generally considered borderline investment grade). I’m assuming that you can only pull the same rabbit out of the same hat once. So for 2020, the bond cart was up-ended.
  • How the Economy is Actually Doing
    This is a NY Times article and (David) feel free to move it to the Off-Topic category if you think it's more germane there.
    "Nearly a year after the coronavirus outbreak, the full impact of the pandemic on the U.S. economy remains unclear. Some of the most obvious indicators are in conflict: As some companies report enormous profits, nearly 10 million more Americans are now unemployed compared with last February, and over one million filed new state and federal unemployment claims last week.
    Are we still in the early stages of a long recession, or will the rollout of vaccines mean we’ll soon see the end of a short-term crisis? How much are people suffering now, and for how long will the effects of the past 10 months persist?
    We asked economists and experts with a variety of backgrounds how they would measure the state of the economy now and what indicators they thought were often overlooked. Here are eight measures they suggested."
    How the Economy is Actually Doing
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    "Clearly DODFX is positioned for a rising rate environment."
    I'm not so sure about that. Over the past few years, it had been positioned as a short term fund (see M* historical style boxes here), but in 2020 it extended its duration into intermediate term territory.
    There’s a little confusion here. @hank is talking about DODFX wrt rising rates (as in rising rates lead to more profits for financials, hence its overweight in financials), not DODIX, which your discussion of M* style boxes links to.
  • Which of these 2 funds is riskier / safer over the next 1-3 years? DODFX vs DODIX
    "Clearly DODFX is positioned for a rising rate environment."
    I'm not so sure about that. Over the past few years, it had been positioned as a short term fund (see M* historical style boxes here), but in 2020 it extended its duration into intermediate term territory.
    Also, as I suggested above, rising interest rates could be a result of an improving economy. In that case, one would expect the spread between junk and IG to decline, making junk more attractive. In addition, junk bonds are less sensitive to interest rate changes, tending to a fair degree to track equities. See, e.g. this Balance piece.
    Yet as you noted, DODIX is not taking advantage of its ability to hold lower grade bonds. It is one of the few core plus funds with a M* average credit rating of A. (Just 17 hold A rated portfolios vs. 25 with BB portfolios; over half the core plus funds have portfolios rated BBB.)
    ISTM the fund is positioned for a slow slog; low and steady rates, where it is betting on rates not going up (and prices dropping), while not willing to bet on avoiding short term problems in the economy (where junk bond prices would fall).
    In the equity market, rising interest rates are good for the financial sector, because people expect higher rates to lead to higher spreads and greater profits. I don't know how that connects with financial sector bond prices though. I really have no idea unless one expects lower profits to substantially increase the risk of financial institutions being unable to service their IG debt.