Why do you still own Bond Funds? hank: "I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble."
Depends on what kind of investor you are. Equity oriented investors, tend to only think of bonds as "ballast" instruments, focusing on treasuries and investment grade options. Bond oriented investors, are aware that there are a wide variety of bond oefs, that perform differently in different environments. Funds like PIMIX and DBLTX were birthed in the ashes of the 2008 crash, purchased nonagency mortgages that were out of favor, and over the following decade of equity bull market performance, those junky bond oefs became hugely popular, replacing CDs for income flow, and making great total return, without the volatility of equities.
I am not a great trader, but I have found that bond oefs move slowly enough that I can establish sell points for bond oefs, and easily switch to other bond oefs, in other categories, and still make a nice, lower stress, total return result. I did that in March 2020, when I sold my junkier bond oefs (with a small loss after hitting my sell point criteria), replaced them with some safe harbor bond oefs like GIBLX and BIMIX, and then when those junky bond oefs were once again performing well, I was able to switch back into funds like DHEAX and SEMMX, and make a nice total return. I am beyond my youthful days of heavy equity oriented investing, but have found my bond oef stage in retirement, provides a very nice total return result, allowing me to preserve what I have accumulated, and still grow the principal each year, even with the required RMD harvesting.
I am 73 years old, in retirement, with no company pensions to provide me a safety net. My preservation of principal objectives, with modest total return, fits my current investing objectives and needs. I am quite content making 4% to 6% annual total return, with minimal volatility and stress, using bond oefs.
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
IMHO this perspective is backward. This added efficiency is true for Vanguard ETFs as well - so far they have been able to dump all gains onto APs. As a result, it is not that Vanguard's ETFs are less efficient than those of other families, but that Vanguard's OEF share classes are more efficient than mutual funds of other families.
Most of Vanguard's ETFs were created as a new share class of an existing mutual fund.
Former Vanguard CIO Gus Sauter even patented (expires 2023) this innovative solution.
This solution increases the tax efficiency for associated mutual funds.
Dan Wiener from
"The Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors" compared the after-tax returns of Vanguard ETFs with their corresponding mutual funds.
Some ETFs had a small advantage of several bps but the same was true for some mutual funds.
There also were ETFs and mutual funds which generated identical after-tax returns.
The following Bloomberg article from 2019 discusses Vanguard's mutual fund taxation in more detail.
Link Here's Barry Ritholtz's take.
Link
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
IMHO this perspective is backward. This added efficiency is true for Vanguard ETFs as well - so far they have been able to dump all gains onto APs. As a result, it is not that Vanguard's ETFs are less efficient than those of other families, but that Vanguard's OEF share classes are more efficient than mutual funds of other families.
QYLD: Covered Call ETF
MUTUAL FUNDS WHY? @Tarwheel The only advantage of ETFs in these cases would be the potential ability to get better prices for sales or buys during the day rather than end-of-day prices.
The other advantage of ETFs is portability. You can trade those ETFs cheaply or for free pretty much anywhere. Those zero-fee Fidelity index mutual funds only trade free at Fidelity, and I think actually are only sold at Fidelity, so you really can't do anything with them anywhere but Fidelity. They are essentially locking you in as a customer for life.
Another advantage, although this is debated somewhat, is tax efficiency. The in-kind redemption system via authorized participants gets appreciated stock out of the ETF without realizing any taxable
capital gains inside the portfolio that have to be distributed to shareholders. This added efficiency should be true for most ETFs, except for Vanguard's, which for complicated reasons I'm too tired to explain aren't more efficient than Vanguard's index mutual funds as they are actually another share class of those funds.
Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term Good question. I’m not seeing anything near term. I prefer to call those “spec plays” anyway. As to “tactical” plays, I scale in or out slowly over months or years. So it’s a matter of portfolio weight or emphasis. I’ve lightened up a bit on the commodities / NR area just because it’s done so well. I’ll continue to lighten up there in “smigits”, but like the area too well to abandon it. BTW, I’ve plugged in PRELX as an (unlikely) substitute inside my real assets sleeve. And it’s beginning to move. A less dicey play on inflation than pure commodities.
I’m looking at what to add at Fido when I have some money there. Kinda like their utilities fund, FSUTX, which would replace some of my commodities exposure. Last evening I went back and re-read David Geroux’s December 2020 Fund Report for PRWCX. In it he makes a compelling case for utilities (which constituted 10% of his holdings at the time). I’m more convinced after reading that than ever. A real long-shot is Fido’s less than 2 year old Infrastructure fund FNSTX. At only 50 mil AUM, should it pop - you’d make out like a bandit. It’s mostly outside the U.S. Heavily in Italy and Spain for reasons unclear. (Maybe they like olives & wine?) However, that’s a pretty far-fetched gamble. It could just as easily go the other way.
Why do you still own Bond Funds? Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason? The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return.
Ignoring the definition of a bond fund for the moment… as PRWCX (an AA fund with a LOT of equities) and HY (junk) bonds are not the same as an FXNAX. Those that held mostly or a large percentage of bond funds in their portfolio in Feb or March 2020 were probably very happy. How did they feel at the end of 2020 when measuring their bond returns vs equities or the S&P Index?
My investment style broke several myths because I don't follow simple rules and indexes.
Myth1: own bonds for ballast, it's about 10 years now that I own bond funds for performance too, starting with PIMIX in 2011.
Myth2: there is no free lunch. I had a free lunch for over 20 years. Anytime a portfolio Sharpe is higher than the index, it's usually free lunch. PRWCX performance since 2000 shows that it made more money than the SP500 with lower volatility. PIMIX in its glory days (2011-2017) made more money with lower SD than many allocation funds 30-40% in stocks.
Myth3: Momentum and trading don't work. It worked for me.
RiverPark Short Term High Yield Fund to close to new investors through financial intermediaries In terms of general tax efficiency, it's like any other short term bond fund - the divs are ordinary income and share price fluctuates mildly.
My approach to handling cost basis with short term bond funds is:
- Send divs to a MMF or bank account (do not reinvest) - to avoid creating a monthly small lot nightmare
- Set the account to use specific lot identification - for full control, to optimize recognition of cap gains
- Sell as needed in mid size blocks and use MMF or bank as buffer - to avoid a nearly daily stream of tiny transactions; identify lots appropriate for your cap gains objective
- Purchase in larger blocks - simplifies identifying lots when selling
P.S. I haven't seen you posting in years. Welcome back.
Why do you still own Bond Funds? Would it be an over simplification to say that you own bond funds if you are afraid that you might panic and sell if there is an equity crash? Is that the primary reason?
The market watch article says you own bond funds for safety and not return. Ignoring the definition of a bond fund for the moment… as PRWCX (an AA fund with a LOT of equities) and HY (junk) bonds are not the same as an FXNAX. Those that held mostly or a large percentage of bond funds in their portfolio in Feb or March
2020 were probably very happy. How did they feel at the end of
2020 when measuring their bond returns vs equities or the S&P Index?
I admit I don’t know enough about bonds and that was the purpose of this post. I read with interest FD’s take:
“ Many retirees I know who have enough, including me, don't care as much about performance as they care about volatility.”… Here is my ignorant question… Wouldn’t the superior performance or returns from equities vs. bonds over 2-3 years far outweigh the “safety” and less volatility from bonds?
Caveat: If one is relying on living only on their portfolio gains or returns and do not wish to touch the principal from their investments… I can clearly see the need for ballast and low volatility. However, if you can weather a “crash”…and recovery as has always been the case- why wouldn’t you just stay invested in equities? The longest collapse in history was 1929 and lasted 2.8 years. The 2007 recession lasted 1.3 years. I suppose I am obsessed with performance but perhaps there will come a day when I’m not and it will be all about preservation. In full disclosure, I own 2 bond funds and some AA. The bond funds are PONAX and FXNAX but are a very small portion of port.
Note: Coincidently, I wrote this before seeing FD’s post on selling when market crashes and
@hank funny response. Thanks
@Crash - yes I meant PRWCX -corrected
Why do you still own Bond Funds? Here’s a good article that looks into this topic:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/06/farewell-yield/From the article:” That brings me to an idea advanced in 1989 by the late Peter Bernstein. Instead of the classic balanced portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, perhaps investors should opt for 75% stocks, with the other 25% in cash investments like money market funds and high-yield savings accounts. Bernstein found that the latter investment mix had a similar risk level to the classic balanced portfolio, but higher returns.”
Except today high yield savings is hardly yielding anything significant either unless the yield is coming from investments of lower grade or banks of having shaky balance sheets. But as long as there is FDIC to back it up, you can keep a portion of cash there.
What could possibly go wrong? Robinhood loaning to small investors so they can multiply gains “Online brokerage Robinhood touts its willingness to lend money to customers so they can multiply their returns just like Wall Street pros, even likening investing with borrowed money to the thrill of riding a motorcycle. What the company doesn't say is that its lending strategy has put clients — who tend to be younger and less experienced at playing the market — in financial peril even before many piled into the shares of struggling video game retailer GameStop in January. “Robinhood's lending so customers could "buy on margin" — in which someone takes out a loan to buy stock, options or other securities — more than doubled in the first six months of 2020, all too often with negative results. Regulatory filings reviewed by CBS MoneyWatch show that investors who borrowed money from Robinhood were nearly 14 times more likely to be unable to repay the loans than investors who borrowed from rival brokerages eTrade, TD Ameritrade and others.”(Sorry / Article a bit dated.(References
2020) Likely, more relevant today than then)
Story
Why do you still own Bond Funds? Things in bond-land suck, these days. I'm hoping for just a 3% yield, lately
Then you're pretty much stuck with junk or an equity kicker. Otherwise you get that 3% yield at the expense of capital. That is, IG bond funds w/o equity get their yield by going long and losing value as rates rise.
This is what I've been able to find in terms of IG bond funds available to retail investors with a trailing 12 mo yield of at least 3%. Once one discards funds with significant equity states (allocation funds, target date funds), most of what's left are intermediate to long term funds with negative total return YTD.
Allocation 15%-30%: BLADX
Allocation (higher): NADCX (30%-50%), NADMX (50% - 70%), NDMAX (70%-85%), NDAAX (85%+)
Convertibles: SBFCX
Corporate: BYMIX, SIGYX
EM local currency: PYELX
HY muni: ETHYX (has IG portfolio)
Core bond: DUTMX (taxable munis), VKMGX
Core plus: AKGAX, MGBIX, CUGZX, FBDAX, PICYX, IICIX
Intermediate Gov: BTTRX (2025 zeros)
Long bond: DEEAX, RPLCX, VBLAX, VLTCX (corp.), VWESX
Muni long: VWALX, GUTEX
Short gov: IPFIX
Short bond: ANFLX, CSTBX, THOPX
Target date: NWHAX (2025), NWLAX (2035), NWMAX (2040), NWNAX (2045), NTDAX (2055), NWWRX (2060+)
World allocation: TEZIX
World bond: MPIFX
World bond, hedged: GBUSX, FGBFX
Convertible-Bond Sales Are Soaring in 2021—Often at 0% Interest / WSJ “Publicly traded companies are selling bonds that can convert into stock at a record pace this year, with nearly a third of those issuers paying nothing in interest, as they seek to take advantage of low rates and investors’ ravenous appetite for fast-growing firms.
So far this year, 97 U.S.-listed companies have issued $54.3 billion worth of convertible bonds, according to Dealogic, a data provider. That is the highest year-to-date volume ever—and 11% more than the amount raised at this point in 2020, which was a record-setting year for convertible-debt issuance.Bankers and advisers say the pace of issuance has been swift as inflation fears and the potential for rising interest rates have come to the front of many investors’ minds.
The terms have been so good for companies selling convertible debt that 28 of them are paying no interest on the bonds, the highest number since 2001. The average interest coupon on convertible debt in 2021 is 1.41%, the lowest on record. On average, this year’s crop of issuers will only need to convert bonds into stock if their share price rises 39% typically within a five-year period, the highest so-called conversion premium since 2003, according to Dealogic.”WSJ Saturday, May 29, 2021