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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • More ESG baloney, er hypocrisy??
    The issue with credit card companies and race seems not to be one currently of gouging with higher interest rates like payday lenders but who companies are offering credit to at all. My reading indicates that many minorities and African Americans especially don't have access to credit cards at all, often because fewer are home owners and don't have established credit histories. That's despite the fact that many might have established reliable histories as renters card companies could investigate if they chose. It's not so much racism of usury it seems but of exclusion altogether. This explains the issue rather well:
    https://forbes.com/advisor/credit-cards/from-inherent-racial-bias-to-incorrect-data-the-problems-with-current-credit-scoring-models/
    And this too: https://morningconsult.com/2019/06/03/access-to-cheap-money-has-a-racial-gap/
    For more detail and additional issues: National Fair Housing Alliance, Discriminatory Effects of Credit Scoring on Communities of Color, 2012
    There seems to be a lack of clarity in what people mean by "credit card companies". There are networks and brands (e.g. VISA, Mastercard) and there are credit card issuers (banks).
    Discover is unique in that it operates its own network and is the exclusive issuer of cards, unlike Amex, and certainly unlike VISA and Mastercard that are only networks. Fidelity Amex Card was issued by FIA card services, a division of Bank of America. So before knocking American Express, check the back of your card to see who issued it.
    It is generally the issuing banks, not the networks, that establish the criteria for credit, sets the rates, and charges consumers fees (late fees, annual fees, service fees, on and on). All based on nominally neutral scores and factors that are anything but.
    One of Lewis' links contained a link to Discover's 2019 CRR. Here's the current 2020 version: https://www.corporatereport.com/discover/2020/crr/index.php
  • Morningstar going further downhill.
    Thanks for giving examples of what bothers you. Some I agree with, some are beyond Vanguard's control, and some don't fall under the rubric "poorly designed and inefficient".
    [snip]
    Research facilities are clunky and barebones - I completely agree that Vanguard doesn't provide useful fund search tools (poorly designed site in this respect, since the info is there, just not easy to get to). Then again, I wouldn't use Fidelity's fund search tool or that of any brokerage for a new search. YMMV.
    I don't use Fidelity's fund screener as my primary research tool.
    However, I have discovered a few good funds via Fidelity's tool that I was previously unaware of.
    I'm not asking for much in the way of research tools, but it would be nice if Vanguard offered a good fund screener.

    [snip]
    "Balances and holdings" view of data different from "account overview" view of data - These have a relatively small amount of data in common (current price and holdings), but otherwise differ in content and purpose.
    The pages reached via "account overview" provide lots of data in addition to price and holdings (YTD/1/3/5/10 year returns, SEC yield) but only as of the current (or standardized) moment in time. The pages reached via "balances and holdings" provide only the price and holdings, but at multiple moments in time.
    Where I think the "modern" layout erred was in including divs and capital gains data under "Holdings." These data belongs under "Activity" as they are historical. In fact, you can find them under the Activity tab, and filter for them using the Transaction Type select box.
    When I login, the "normal" Account View is displayed. The second part of each example above refers to navigating the menu under "My Accounts". You're missing the larger point that page layouts are completely different. I can't think of a good reason to implement totally different page layouts for the same (or similar) data.
    Two different presentations of transaction/activity/history data- Unlike the other example, here the two sets of pages really are presenting "the same (or essentially same) data".
    Some people like the ability to choose a layout, especially a "classic" (what you call "dated") layout that they're accustomed to. Others, as you wrote can get confused by having too many (read: more than one) choice.
    It might have been better had Vanguard provided a mode setting for the website: "new" vs. "classic". Though given Vanguard's inability to support a "new" (brokerage platform) and "classic" (fund platform) simultaneously I have doubts about their ability to implement a mode setting.
    I never wrote that others can get confused; I said it can be distracting.
    It would have been better if Vanguard provided "new" and "classic" views.

    Personally, what I care about is functionality and ease of use for buying/selling/exchanging mutual funds (including the ability to cancel orders). Not research, and not nightly updates by 9PM ET. Sure the website could be better, though.
    Functionality and ease of use are also my two primary concerns.
    I don't expect a vast array of research tooIs but a good fund screener would be nice to have.
    Although Vanguard has many other strengths, their website could be improved.

  • Morningstar going further downhill.
    Thanks for giving examples of what bothers you. Some I agree with, some are beyond Vanguard's control, and some don't fall under the rubric "poorly designed and inefficient".
    Going one by one, and recognizing that what matters to some doesn't matter to others:
    • Inconsistent holdings data (balances), varying by page - I haven't experienced this, but then again I don't go into Vanguard's site two different ways in the same session. I'll take your word for this. Sounds like a similar problem to what Fidelity has where one sees updates in one's portfolio view soon after market close, but one has to wait until the wee hours of the morning to see the same account updated on the Full View holdings page. This problem clearly comes under "poorly designed".
    • Mutual fund orders cannot be cancelled once placed - this is simply not correct. I just tested this by submitting an order on Vanguard's brokerage site and cancelling it a few seconds later.
    • It can take several days for a non-house fund distribution to show up in an account - I see the same thing at Fidelity, where two funds (different families) make a distribution. One shows up that evening, the other isn't posted for days (though it is backdated). It's likely a matter on the third party fund side, especially since it is the same families repeatedly that I see posted days late at Fidelity.
    • Inconsistent statistics by page - is this different from the first item, that the holdings data (and hence derived data like asset mix) vary by page?
    • Research facilities are clunky and barebones - I completely agree that Vanguard doesn't provide useful fund search tools (poorly designed site in this respect, since the info is there, just not easy to get to). Then again, I wouldn't use Fidelity's fund search tool or that of any brokerage for a new search. YMMV.
      A Fidelity-specific problem is that in order to see closed funds (which may be open, just not at Fidelity), you have know it's necessary to include closed funds. Then you have to work to find "include closed funds" checkbox. It's buried under "Fund Features" in full criteria screener.
      More generally, brokerage screeners won't show you funds that the brokerage doesn't carry, unlike MFO or M*. For example, Fidelity's screener doesn't show you Vanguard U.S. Multifactor Fund. But Schwab's screener does, because Schwab sells VFMFX.
    • Can take up to twelve hours for a trade to post - I see the same thing at Fidelity. The impression I have is that on the fund side, they gather all the orders together and process them in bulk. If that's correct, this would be an example of efficiency, not inefficiency. And not a problem with the website, but an attribute of the in-house fund family.
    • "Balances and holdings" view of data different from "account overview" view of data - These have a relatively small amount of data in common (current price and holdings), but otherwise differ in content and purpose.
      The pages reached via "account overview" provide lots of data in addition to price and holdings (YTD/1/3/5/10 year returns, SEC yield) but only as of the current (or standardized) moment in time. The pages reached via "balances and holdings" provide only the price and holdings, but at multiple moments in time.
      Where I think the "modern" layout erred was in including divs and capital gains data under "Holdings." These data belongs under "Activity" as they are historical. In fact, you can find them under the Activity tab, and filter for them using the Transaction Type select box.
    • Two different presentations of transaction/activity/history data- Unlike the other example, here the two sets of pages really are presenting "the same (or essentially same) data".
      Some people like the ability to choose a layout, especially a "classic" (what you call "dated") layout that they're accustomed to. Others, as you wrote can get confused by having too many (read: more than one) choice.
      It might have been better had Vanguard provided a mode setting for the website: "new" vs. "classic". Though given Vanguard's inability to support a "new" (brokerage platform) and "classic" (fund platform) simultaneously I have doubts about their ability to implement a mode setting.
    Personally, what I care about is functionality and ease of use for buying/selling/exchanging mutual funds (including the ability to cancel orders). Not research, and not nightly updates by 9PM ET. Sure the website could be better, though.
  • DSL for monthly income. What's not to like?
    I'll draw your attention to the chart in the CEF Analyzer link. Click on the 2Yr option and look at April of 2020. If you can handle a $5 drop in market price then explore the other tabs on the website as well. Note also the drop in distributions over time. I'm not saying that it's a bad current holding but I personally would be looking for a larger discount before considering a purchase.
  • Funds For The Electric Vehicle Surge
    I have not read any of these yet. When and if I do decide to invest in one it will be one more focused on the moving parts (i.e. charging stations, batteries, machining tools, etc.) rather than any one focused on particular EV auto manufacturer.
    7 Electric Vehicle ETFs to Buy
    3 Funds to Gain From Progress in Electric Vehicle Space
    3 Electric Vehicle ETFs To Floor It With
  • Is China a bear market opportunity?
    If China is communist, explain then how such glaring wealth inequality exists in China and there are numerous publicly listed Chinese companies with capital invested in them that produce significant profits for their founders and investors. Note the word "capital" in the previous sentence.
  • The Era of Cheap Natural Gas Ends as Prices Surge by 1,000%
    The authors acknowledged the attention grabbing aspect of their headline when they stated "European natural gas rates have surged more than 1,000% from a record low in May 2020 due to the pandemic, while Asian LNG rates have jumped about six-fold in the last year." And, they don't view natural gas as a final green solution to the climate change problem ("Countries championed gas as a way to quickly reduce their carbon footprint.") What I took from the article is a suggestion that global natural gas prices may well remain firm and perhaps rise substantially in the mid-term until alternative energy sources that are globally affordable and greener become available -- depending on how global regulations and investor demands evolve as the energy transition continues.
  • The Era of Cheap Natural Gas Ends as Prices Surge by 1,000%
    A rather misleading click-baity headline. The natural gas ETF, which admittedly is not a perfect proxy, is up 0.03% today--https://morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ung/quote Talking about prices off of 2020 pandemic lows when oil went briefly to zero is absurd. Also, natural gas, while better than coal, is really not clean energy, so this line--"With few other options, the world is expected to depend more on cleaner-burning gas as a replacement to coal to help achieve near-term green goals."--is irksome:
    https://vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/5/30/18643819/climate-change-natural-gas-middle-ground
    https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-gas-climatebox-explainer/explainer-cleaner-but-not-clean-why-scientists-say-natural-gas-wont-avert-climate-disaster-idUSKCN25E1DR
  • How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio
    How 10 of the world’s smartest investors can help you build your perfect portfolio
    Is there a Perfect Portfolio for investors?
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/how-10-of-the-worlds-smartest-investors-can-help-you-build-your-perfect-portfolio-11628177690
    We posed this question to 10 of the most respected pioneers in the investment community. Six have Nobel Prizes in Economics: Harry Markowitz, the founder of Modern Portfolio Theory, the basis of the modern investment portfolio; his protégé William Sharpe, creator of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the beta risk measure that changed how we think about risk and reward in the financial markets; Eugene Fama, who developed the Efficient Market Hypothesis; Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, two of the co-creators of the Black-Scholes/Merton option pricing model; and Robert Shiller, the behavioral economist whose work challenged the notion of market efficiency.
    The other four are portfolio managers, investors and bestselling authors who have sold millions of investment books, including The Vanguard Group’s founder Jack Bogle; the “Bond Guru,” Marty Leibowitz; the “Wisest Man on Wall Street” and Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis; and the “Wizard of Wharton,” Jeremy Siegel.
    Prob 90% spy 10% bnd
    Hold and die
    What is your perfect portfolio composition?
  • How to Break Down Health Care Costs in Retirement - TRowePrice Study
    How to Be Proactive With Your Medicare Options:
    planning-for-medicare
    A very good piece that mentions many of the gotchas often omitted. For example, articles often note that HSA account money can be used to pay for Medicare premiums, but they don't clarify that one cannot use HSA money for Medigap premiums. This piece got it right.
    This leads to a (weak) argument in favor of Medicare Advantage plans. MA plans can provide coverage (e.g. an out of pocket cap) similar to Medigap plans. And you can pay for their premiums with HSA money, unlike Medigap premiums.
    There is a related gotcha that was omitted. You can only use money from your HSA to pay for Medicare premiums if you are over age 65. That may sound like a nobrainer, but you could have Medicare at an earlier age, or you might be paying your spouse's Medicare premiums while you yourself are still under age 65.
    One detail that it got wrong is:
    Unlike tax brackets, the [IRMAA] thresholds don’t automatically change with inflation.
    But they do automatically change:
    Starting on January 1, 2020, the threshold amounts will resume adjustment for inflation
    20 CFR § 418.1105(c)
    That comes from the ACA (which also suspended inflation adjustments for several years before 2020).
  • Is China a bear market opportunity?
    https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-chinas-bear-market-opportunity?cmp=em-RBK
    Is China a bear market opportunity?
    Key Points
    China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown; historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
    The recent drop seems to be driven by a regulatory crackdown, not an economic slowdown, with the market not responding to the economic outlook, but to the policy uncertainty.
    Regulatory reform may continue, but the market’s reaction may be overdone.
    We have been adding to China funds and EEM past few wks
  • About That Merger Fund
    Mergers seem to be part of the fabric of investing and is not always a positive sign for the company, nor their investors.
    - Pepsi is selling Tropicana ($3.3 B will go private)...I wondered will this benefit Pepsi shareholders. Maybe.
    /pepsico-sell-majority-stake-juice-business
    - USAA Brokerage merged (sold) all of the assets to Schwab (for $1.8 Billion)... I asked the question to USAA...do USAA members receive any of the proceeds of this sale? Answer: no. So I moved my USAA brokerage assets to TD Ameritrade and received a $1K transfer bonus. Oops...come to find out, TD Ameritrade will soon also be Schwab (sold for $22B) .
    Well at least I received something ($1K transfer bonus) for the disruption.
    - Insurance companies merge...my life insurer "demutualized" and merged with Met Life. I received METLife stock as part of the merger...wished we had merged with Apple. As a result of this merger (demutualization) I will pay taxes on the capital appreciation of the stock shares I received when I sell them.
    New England Mutual expects its credit rating to be raised to Met Life’s level, which could potentially attract more wealthy clients. Affluent policy buyers are particularly sensitive to low ratings of insurance companies.
    The higher credit rating is also expected to make it easier for New England Mutual to dispose of troubled real estate assets that have dragged down its rating in recent years.

    - Mutual funds merge into mutual funds:
    When Funds Collide: What Happens When Funds Merge?
    When Funds Collide, Survivors Often Suffer: Article (linked below) examines how business reasons that prompt fund mergers don't necessarily dovetail with the interests of the funds' shareholders. A fund company may simply be trying to bury a poor track record. More importantly, surviving funds tend to under perform after a merger
    thestreet.com/investing/funds/mutual-funds/when-funds-collide
  • About That Merger Fund
    MERFX collapse was due to the collapse of the Aon/Willis Towers Watson merger agreement. DOJ had argued merger would reduce competition and raise prices in the insurance industry, so merger was called off due to regulatory concerns. This was a $30 billion deal, and the Merger Fund has 4+ billion in assets, so they figured this was an easy way to soak up some assets. Other event-driven funds with smaller asset bases stayed away from the deal, like VARAX . To me, it seems like Westchester Capital didn't perform due diligence with this deal, as apparently other fund houses sensed the deal's uncertainty. For me, I'm in the process of selling out of my entire position, and redeploying some of the assets into VARAX ntf at Schwab and Vanguard. ARBFX and BALPX were also hurt to a smaller degree by the collapse. I've invested in MERFX off and on for about 20 years, and this was a disappointing result that didn't have to happen !
    Thanks for the info! Looking at PV it seems Merger has performed better than Vivaldi with limited exception, including this year. I hope Merger's misstep is not the start of a trend. I thought about the Nexpoint MA fund but I've had my fill of Dondero. I guess we'll see.
  • About That Merger Fund
    MERFX collapse was due to the collapse of the Aon/Willis Towers Watson merger agreement. DOJ had argued merger would reduce competition and raise prices in the insurance industry, so merger was called off due to regulatory concerns. This was a $30 billion deal, and the Merger Fund has 4+ billion in assets, so they figured this was an easy way to soak up some assets. Other event-driven funds with smaller asset bases stayed away from the deal, like VARAX . To me, it seems like Westchester Capital didn't perform due diligence with this deal, as apparently other fund houses sensed the deal's uncertainty. For me, I'm in the process of selling out of my entire position, and redeploying some of the assets into VARAX ntf at Schwab and Vanguard. ARBFX and BALPX were also hurt to a smaller degree by the collapse. I've invested in MERFX off and on for about 20 years, and this was a disappointing result that didn't have to happen !
  • VOO And VTI Overlap Quite A Bit: So Which Is Better For Long Term Investors?
    I ran these two funds (I changed VOO to VFINX) to allow PV (portfoliovisualizer) to go back to 2002. I included VWINX and PRWCX to further compare a withdrawal strategy over the last 19 years. I used a 6% withdrawal rate (pretty aggressive) for each of the 19 years to compare the income generation each fund would provide and their suitability as a long term investment for capital preservation and income.
    Interesting results (click on Comparison between):
    Comparison between VFINX, VTI, PRWCX, and VWINX
    My observations:
    Comparing these four funds from 2002-2021 provides insight into why allocation funds are so beneficial for both income and capital preservation. Both VWINX and PRWCX navigated the Tech Bubble and the Great Recession preserving capital while at the same time providing greater yearly withdrawal amounts than either of the etfs.
    It took 14 years for both (VOO) VFINX and VTI to overtake VWINX. From 2002 - 2016 VWINX outperformed VTI and VOO (VFINX) on a rolling return basis. PRWCX accomplished this feat every year (2002-2021) providing both more income per year as well as higher yearly portfolio balances.
    Future Consideration:
    From the perspective of both income and capital preservation, would an investor be less harmed (opportunity cost risk verses sequence of return risk) owning VWINX verses an Total Equity Market Index?
    At the start of retirement or the start of one's investment career, I would consider owning an allocation fund such as VWINX or PRWCX and consider reallocationg into VOO or VTI when markets periodically sell off.
  • VOO And VTI Overlap Quite A Bit: So Which Is Better For Long Term Investors?
    By Jim Sloan, SA contributor.
    Summary
    ° VOO is based on the S&P 500 and VTI on the Total Stock Market, adding the 22% of stocks not included in the 500; long term they have performed similarly.
    ° Both are market cap weighted and heavily tilted toward the 10 largest stocks which are 28.5% of VOO and 23.4% of VTI.
    ° Jack Bogle preferred VTI because it contained "everything." Warren Buffett put the S&P 500 in his will for his wife, perhaps because it is tilted toward large cap growth.
    ° Longer term charts show similar returns while a one year chart clearly shows the outperformance of smaller caps, thus VTI, starting September 2020 with recognition of economic growth.
    ° There are several quirks in the way these index ETFs are put together, plus some interesting differences in statistical metrics and industry composition; VOO is more tax efficient.
    ARTICLE
  • Delta variant surge will crush reopening stocks, longtime market bear David Rosenberg suggests
    As the saying goes, economists have predicted five of the last three recessions:
    https://advisorperspectives.com/articles/2021/05/06/david-rosenberg-the-consensus-is-wrong-about-stocks-bonds-and-inflation
    The consensus is that U.S. equities will deliver strong performance as the economy recovers, and that higher inflation will drive rising interest rates. All of that is wrong, according to David Rosenberg.
    The Toronto-based Rosenberg started his own economic consulting firm in January 2020, Rosenberg Research & Associates, after working a decade as chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates. He was the opening speaker at this year’s Strategic Investment Conference, hosted by John Mauldin.
    Before you place too much weight on Rosenberg’s analysis, recall that he delivered the opening keynote at this conference last year, when he proclaimed that U.S. equity market bulls were in “fantasyland.” He was wrong. The return for the S&P 500 for the last year was 56.25%.
    The “fiscal juice” from stimulus checks and the re-opening of the economy are outstripping supply, creating temporary inflation. Supply will catch up when demand subsides as the effect from the stimulus wanes, according to Rosenberg. That will happen before the end of the year.
    When the effect of stimulus checks expired last year, GDP declined by 2.5%. We will see a repeat of that this year, according to Rosenberg.
  • TSMRX No Hedge Fund Holding Now?
    I lost a lot of money on QSPIX and sold it after a long time. I lost a little money on TMSRX and sold it after a short time. Both losses do not include gains that I would have realized had I invested in a 60/40 fund instead of QSPIX and TMSRX.
    I learned my lesson on "black box" funds.
  • Vanguard Wellington Fund reopens to third party financial intermediaries
    Wow. Thank you Shadow.
    That's a big deal.
    Wonder if it's because this biz cycle, since Jan 2020, it's only done OK versus peers, likely impacting AUM (but I have not checked that)?
    image