Vanguard is the only fund company I know of that posts running totals of capital gains throughout the year. The suite of Primecap funds, for example, look like they have already realized double-digit percentages of gains so far this year, and it seems those will get a lot bigger given outsized July redemptions (almost $4 billion worth in the case of VPMCX, according to M*).

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1548609/000089418925005486/baf-497e.htm
97 1 baf-497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
BROWN ADVISORY FUNDS
Brown Advisory – WMC Strategic European Equity Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated August 6, 2025
to the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information dated October 31, 2024
Capitalized terms and certain other terms used in this Supplement, unless otherwise defined in this Supplement, have the meanings assigned to them in the Statutory Prospectus, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information.
1.Restriction on the Sale of Shares of the Fund to Certain Investors
Effective as of the close of business on August 8, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), the Fund will stop accepting new purchases other than those purchases as described below which will continue to be permitted. Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Fund may, in its sole discretion, accept new purchases after the Closing Date from certain financial intermediaries that have entered into agreements with the Fund’s Distributor or with the Fund’s Investment Adviser, Brown Advisory LLC (the “Adviser”). Following the Closing Date, the Fund will continue to permit the following types of investments in the Fund:
•Additional share purchases made in connection with the reinvestment of dividends or capital gains by existing Fund shareholders;
•Investments made by institutional and separately managed account investors that are clients of the Adviser; and
•Investments made through the Adviser’s 401(k) retirement plan that is maintained for use by employees of the Adviser.
The Fund reserves the right, at any time, in its sole discretion, to further modify or amend the investment limitations described above. You may be required to demonstrate your eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted.
For additional information regarding the restrictions on new purchases of shares of the Fund, please contact the Fund at 1-800-540-6807 (toll free) or 414-203-9064.
Investors should retain this supplement for future reference.

Indeed. I've turned to ETFs for all new investments for the past few years. My basis in these "surprise" mutual funds goes back decades. RYPNX has alway been right on the edge of my personal "efficient frontier" (return vs volatility) map, so I've always considered the tax inefficiency to be a sign that the fund managers are doing their job :-)
Morningstar published a "Potential Capital Gains Exposure" figure but it ranges from zero to low 70 percent even for SP500 index funds (and minus 3% for SPY??). It's 26% for RYPNX, but much higher for funds with lower turnovers, which is sort of consistent, but my guess is that these stats are all over the map since the market's been seeing record highs since the start of the year.
It will be fun to see if Copilot or ChatGPT have any insights. They aren't afraid to tell you your numbers are meaningless. But they are very good at making plots, you just paste in some CSV-format data and boom you get a PNG image of your graph. Copilot even posts a code fragment so I can regenerate the graph myself with Matlib.

Max drawdown period for all funds was Feb 2020-March 2020

Gemini supposedly using daily prices
Fund Performance Metrics (Jan 4, 2016 – Jul 31, 2025)
Fund Name & Ticker CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
Max Drawdown
Sharpe Ratio
Sortino Ratio
Marshfield Fund (MRFOX) 12.15% -30.88% 0.65 0.94
T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX) 14.72% -26.54% 0.82 1.21
T. Rowe Price U.S. Equity Research (PRCOX) 13.98% -34.11% 0.73 1.05
Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) 14.35% -33.72% 0.76 1.09

Note: Start date defaults to 01/04/2016 which is the first trading day in Jan. 2016
Why does it do that? Testfolio says that the run is limited to 1/4/16 by the inception date of MRFOX. But the fund started on 12/28/2015, per Marshfield.
Remove MRFOX from the test set and Testfolio start date defaults to 11/13/2000. It correctly says that this is the inception date of VFIAX.
CAGRs and cumulative returns should be identical so long as same starting and ending dates are used. But they're not. Set Testfolio (and M* charts) to use dates from 1/31/16 through 7/31/25 and set PV to use Feb 2016 through July 2025. Cumulative returns from PV and M* are identical, but don't agree with Testfolio:
Cumulative Returns (M* & PV vs. Testfolio)
MRFOX: 326.81% vs 326.76%
PRWCX: 189.58% vs 186.74%
PRCOX: 303.21% vs 304.91%
VFIAX: 284.69% vs 284.69% - a match
Perhaps Testfolio is calculating reinvested dividends on its own, and slightly differently from the other tools. Worth noting is that its figures differ from the official figures, i.e. the ones reported by funds themselves.
For example, look at MRFOX for 2020, i.e. between 12/31/19 and 12/31/20. The fund prospectus, M* charts, M* fund performance table, and PV all report a 2020 return of 15.19%. Testfolio reports 15.18%. (To be precise, M* reports 15.1936% and PV reports 15.194% while Testfolio reports 15.17889%.)
CAGR are close enough.
For investing purposes, yes. It's the fact that they're not identical for identical dates that gives one pause.
Likewise, numerically it doesn't matter much whether one is looking at monthly variations or daily ones. Daily fluctuations are noise, just as tick-to-tick fluctuations in ETFs are noise at an even higher frequency. What matters more is comparing one fund's volatility with another's at the same sampling frequency.
IMHO max drawdowns are different. Recovery times when calculated monthly and daily can vary wildly. For example (not the best example, but it will suffice), consider IOFIX.
IOFIX peaked on March 6, 2020. By March 25 it had dropped 45.49%. On a daily basis, it has yet to recover. It came close on Feb 2, 2022, down just 0.22% from its peak, but that was as high as it got.
On a monthly basis (Feb 28, 2020 peak to March 31, 2020 trough), it dropped "only" 37.95% and recovered by Jan 31, 2022 (up 0.0755% from its previous peak).

Does anyone have a method for estimating fund capital gain distributions this
early in the year? I need to keep my income below a certain level for 2025
and have a few mutual funds that sometimes throw a big surprise at
the ends of the year. Normally this is not a problem :-)
What drives distributions? I figure it would be some function of turnover, NAV,
fund inflows and outflows, and of course fund policy.
Any ideas? Also where I might be able to see more timely
turnover and inflow outflow data - funds and Morningstar seems to report it only at
year end.
An an example, I looked up 5 years of data for RYPNX (Royce Small Cap
Opportunity) and plotted turnover vs change # of shares vs the CG distribution for 5 years.
[I tried to post an image, didn't work.]
Not much of a pattern, they have reported 35% turnover for the past three years.
The 2021 distribution was a whopper, about 25% of NAV, turnover was 69%.
But the 2020 distribution was 0 even though turnover was 53%. Q1 2020 was the pandemic big correction
and then the fund had a big spike in Q2-3 2021, even though the asset unders management was
still nearly double a YE 21 vs 20.
Maybe I should calculate the upside volatility of my funds and pay attention to that.
Or I could use volume of a similar ETF as a proxy. So far, this year, RYPNX has been meh,
so I don't expect a big distribution for 2025.
The cool part if that Microsoft Copilot seems to want to work with me on this:
Q: "What us a useful model for predicting mutual fund capital gain distributions in advance?"
A: [edited]: "Would you like help building a predictive model using historical fund data?
I can assist with data sourcing, feature selection, and model development."

Akre Focus performed well while Chuck Akre managed the fund.
It delivered strong returns with relatively low volatility.
After Chuck Akre retired in 2020, all experienced investment personnel left except for John Neff.
Neff was backed by two somewhat new analysts.
Akre Focus isn't the same fund now...

@ Observant: Thanks for bringing up that Beach interview. I'd like to know the details of the "state and local education" problems. The AI on Duck-Duck answers the question this way:

The revisions in the jobs report indicated that state and local education job gains were lower than previously reported, primarily due to reduced hiring as pandemic-era government subsidies expired. This led to significant job cuts in education, reflecting a broader trend of declining employment in that sector.

Hmm. What "broader trend"?

I have used both as MD and patient, although I haven't used Cerner since 2020
Back then Cerner was far easier to deal with as a provider, and Epic was far far too complicated. EHRs were designed as billing and revenue capturing platforms not to enhanced providers or patients experience. Once Bush crammed them down our throats, there was no way to win.

Hi @Old_Joe
The below is a very good overview. The report is widely followed, and the data is announced and discussed at/on Bloomberg and CNBC tv business programs, and others.
ADP report
The ADP National Employment Report (also known as the ADP Report) is a monthly report that provides an independent measure of the US labor market's private sector.
Here's a breakdown of the key information about the ADP report:
1. What it is
The ADP National Employment Report measures the change in US private-sector employment and pay, according to PR Newswire.
It's based on anonymized payroll data collected from over 25 million private-sector employees across the US.
It's produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
2. What it shows
The report provides insights into overall private sector job gains and losses, pay growth, and sectoral employment trends.
It details the change in total private employment for the current month and weekly job data from the previous month.
The report includes a sectoral breakdown of employment changes by industry, allowing for detailed understanding of which sectors are growing or contracting.
It also categorizes employment changes by business size (small, medium, large) to highlight trends within different-sized companies.
The report also includes data on pay trends, specifically focusing on year-over-year pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers.
3. Why it's important
Labor Market Indicator: It offers a timely and representative picture of the private sector, a crucial segment of the US economy.
Predictive Value: The report is released before the more comprehensive Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Report, often serving as a leading indicator for predicting the BLS numbers.
Sectoral Insights: The detailed breakdown by industry helps understand specific sector performance and trends.
Economic Forecasting: The job and pay data are used by economists and market analysts for economic forecasting, influencing expectations for consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth.
Informs Business Strategy: The report helps companies understand labor market conditions, manage risk, and make workforce decisions, such as retention or layoff strategies.
4. Key recent findings (July 2025 report)
Private employers added 104,000 jobs in July, which was higher than the expected 77,000 addition and the largest monthly gain since March.
Hiring gains were primarily driven by the services sector, which added 74,000 jobs, particularly in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.
However, the education and health sector experienced a net loss of jobs, continuing a negative trend for the year.
Year-over-year pay growth remained relatively stable, with a 4.4% increase for job-stayers and a 7% increase for job-changers.
5. Next release
The August 2025 ADP National Employment Report is scheduled for release on September 4, 2025, at 8:15 a.m. ET.
In essence, the ADP report offers valuable insights into the health and dynamics of the US private sector labor market, acting as an important tool for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike.

as i heard on a recent podcast, the global reallocation of capital will lag the reallocation of trust.
and yeah, i dont need some trading genius to tell me to look out the window to see if the immediate weather is good.

@Mona,
I was surprised Ms. Hynes remained the sole manager of Vanguard Health Care
after being promoted to CEO in 2021.
You'd think she had plenty of other responsibilities associated with the CEO role!
FWIW, a M* analyst downgraded Vanguard Health Care in late 2020.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/why-weve-downgraded-this-fine-vanguard-fund
Note: Sorry, I probably shouldn't have derailed yogi's thread!

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000139834425014318/fp0094738-1_497.htm
497 1 fp0094738-1_497.htm
THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND II
(the “Trust”)
Vontobel Global Environmental Change Fund
(the “Fund”)
Supplement dated August 1, 2025 to the Fund’s Prospectus (the “Prospectus”), Summary Prospectus (the “Summary Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”), each dated January 28, 2025
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
The Board of Trustees of the Trust, at the recommendation of Vontobel Asset Management, Inc. (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser of the Fund, has approved a plan of liquidation providing for the liquidation of the Fund’s assets and the distribution of the net proceeds pro rata to the Fund’s shareholders. In connection therewith, the Fund is closed to investments from new and existing shareholders effective immediately. The Fund is expected to cease operations and liquidate on or about August 29, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). The Liquidation Date may be changed without notice at the discretion of the Trust’s officers.
Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem (sell) their shares in the manner described in the “Purchasing, Selling and Exchanging Fund Shares – How to Sell Your Fund Shares” section of the Prospectus. For those Fund shareholders that do not redeem (sell) their shares prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to each such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal in value to the shareholder’s interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, the Adviser may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate the Fund’s orderly liquidation, such as by holding cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
The liquidation distribution amount will include any accrued income and capital gains, will be treated as a payment in exchange for shares and will generally be a taxable event for shareholders investing through taxable accounts. You should consult your personal tax advisor concerning your particular tax situation. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the Liquidation Date will reflect costs of liquidating the Fund. Shareholders will receive liquidation proceeds as soon as practicable after the Liquidation Date.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.

An interesting discussion with Cliff Asness from AQR on The Long View podcast.
"The founder of AQR Capital Management discusses alternative strategies,
private markets, tariffs, and the role of AI in investing."
https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/526f0852-3f72-4259-941c-e27eed99645f

I had PRHSX for decades. I dumped most of my healthcare holdings before I lost too much of the outsized gains I had accumulated. The weakness started in early 2022.

Hi @JD_co

Does the Big Beautiful con job sabotage the Bull market?

More so now than a short time ago, I do believe.
Europe has been soft for several trading days, after the very large gains. Many Global sectors were downward today (Thursday).

Wall Street’s Big, Bad Idea for Your 401(k)
Excerpts from a current Wall Street Journal article by Jason Zweig
The excerpts shown here are a very small section of Mr. Zweig's entire report. I stronly recommend that his report be read in it's entirety. The above link should be free to all.

Wall Street is promoting a colossal lie.

Money managers are in a desperate race to stuff illiquid, so-called private-market assets into funds anyone can buy, including your 401(k). They say we all can earn high return and low risk with nontraded “alternatives” like private equity, venture capital and private real estate.
Because private assets don’t trade, it’s the fund managers—not the market—that determine what they’re worth. That enables the managers to report much fewer and lower fluctuations than public funds do. Then they get to declare that private funds are low risk.
That’s ridiculous. In the real world, risk is the chance of losing money, which has nothing to do with how often prices are reported. Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, calls the smooth returns reported by alternative funds “volatility laundering.”
Owning an alternative fund is a lot simpler than selling it. When you own it, you might take the manager’s valuations for granted, even if that’s a bad idea. When you sell it, the valuation matters—a lot. That’s a risk.
In short, an alternative fund can claim to be low risk and to be at least partly liquid—but, sooner or later, it won’t be able to sustain both claims at once. That’s true here, and for all the other funds hoping to rope in a much wider base of everyday investors.
Remember that as politicians ease the way for alternative funds to land in your retirement plan.

David Stein (Money for the Rest of us Podcast) stated that its not a great time to be investing in PE.
- fundraising has slowed tremendously
- there are tons of PE firms that can't sell their firms due to various reasons
- tons of liquidity problems
- uni endowments are selling at tremendous discounts because they are so illiquid
- PE firms are needing to raise liquid capital to let investors out of old PE investments out.