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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BofA Survey Shows Biggest-Ever Drop in US Stock Allocations
    ”(Bloomberg) -- Investors have slashed holdings of US equities by the most on record, according to Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey, underscoring the massive rotation that’s underway in global markets. Fund managers reported being about 23% underweight in US stocks — a plunge of 40 percentage points from the previous survey.
    ”In another marker of investor caution, cash levels have risen to 4.1% from 3.5%, the biggest jump since 2020, according to the survey. Traditionally defensive plays, such as consumer staples, also registered an increase in allocations, while tech had a sharp decline.”
    Story at Yahoo
  • Macquarie Global Allocation Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883622/000113743925000223/497.htm
    497 1 497.htm
    IVY FUNDS
    Macquarie Global Allocation Fund (formerly, Delaware Ivy Wilshire Global Allocation Fund)
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (as amended), Statutory Prospectus (as amended) and Statement of Additional Information (as amended), each dated October 30, 2024
    On February 11-13, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Ivy Funds approved the reorganization of the Fund (Reorganization) into and with a substantially similar fund and class of Macquarie Balanced Fund, a series of Ivy Funds. Subject to the requisite shareholder approval, the Reorganization is now expected to take place on or about June 27, 2025 (Reorganization Date).
    As noted in the supplement dated February 13, 2025, no contingent deferred sales charge will be assessed in connection with any redemption of shares of the Fund prior to the Reorganization.
    Effective one week before the Reorganization Date, the Fund will close to new investors and existing shareholders.
    Prior to the closing of the Reorganization, the Fund will distribute to its shareholders, in one or more distributions, all of its income and gains (net of available capital loss carryovers) not previously distributed for taxable years ending on or prior to the Reorganization Date.
    Because everyone’s tax situation is unique, you should consult your tax professional about federal, state, local, or foreign tax consequences before making an investment in the Fund or acting on a distribution check.
    Delaware Management Company is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Macquarie Group Limited (MGL). None of the entities noted in this document is an authorized deposit-taking institution for the purposes of the Banking Act 1959 (Commonwealth of Australia) and the obligations of these entities do not represent deposits or other liabilities of Macquarie Bank Limited ABN 46 008 583 542 (Macquarie Bank). Macquarie Bank does not guarantee or otherwise provide assurance in respect of the obligations of these entities. In addition, if this document relates to an investment (a) each investor is subject to investment risk including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested and (b) none of Macquarie Bank or any other Macquarie Group company guarantees any particular rate of return on or the performance of the investment, nor do they guarantee repayment of capital in respect of the investment.
    Please keep this Supplement for future reference.
    This Supplement is dated March 18, 2025.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    I don't care whether there is a recession, or not. My concern is the health of my IRA. And there's lots of information out there telling me it doesn't need to be fully invested yet. Dinky linky.
    The market's main issues as stocks declined? Growing uncertainty around President Trump's policies, how those might impact a weakening economic growth outlook — and fears over the artificial intelligence boom disappointing. In the past week, there's been little evidence that those fears were overblown.
    In other words, other than some stocks being "cheaper" than they were a month ago, when the S&P 500 hit its most recent high, there haven't been a lot of compelling cases to convince investors — who didn't buy stocks last week — to pile in now.
    Plenty of survey data has cited concerns about how tariffs could impact both consumer and business spending. But there haven't been enough hard data points, like significantly softening consumer spending numbers, weak labor reports, or a swath of earnings guidance cuts, to complete the story.
    "The vibes have helped us understand why the stock market has been getting hit so hard, and why concerns about the direction of the economy are rising," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote. "But the vibes aren't sending us a clear signal about whether, even with the S&P 500 down 10% from all time highs, a contrarian buying opportunity is at hand."
    Maybe something like certainty will begin to appear as we get closer to April 2. On the other hand, things could also get crazier. No one knows which direction the trade wars will go. And we have yet to see data resulting from those tariffs that have gone into effect.
    If you follow the conventional wisdom of the anodyne analysts, none of the above matters. You should stick to your plan, ignore what is happening in trade policy because politics, and timing markets might cause hair to grown on your palms, but will definitely end in tears.
    For extra credit:
    "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Turns out Keynes didn't say that, some guy named Gary Shilling did. Check it out.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    3.18- Took profit on EWH (Hong Kong). The price looks stretched after a big move up.
    Purchased another tranche of PRCFX. - It continues to demonstrate muted volatility, with a proven manager (D. Giroux).
    In terms of optimizing returns on cash in taxable account, added to holdings in BOXX. -- This ETF (essentially) allows one to defer tax on T-bill like ETF, and, if one holds +1year, pay lower cap-gains rate on the accrued value. It essentially performs like a savings bond, but in an ETF wrapper. The ETF has garnered ~ $5.5 billion AUM in the 2+ years its been operating.
  • Morgan Stanley Mortgage Securities Trust being reorganized into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806564/000110465925024024/tm258948d2_497.htm
    497 1 tm258948d2_497.htm 497
    Filed by: Morgan Stanley ETF Trust
    Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933 and
    deemed filed under Rule 14a-12(b) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
    Subject Company: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Securities Trust
    SEC File No. 811-04917 and 033-10363
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MARCH 14, 2025 TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS, AND STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OF
    Morgan Stanley Mortgage Securities Trust, dated February 28, 2025
    (the “Acquired Fund”)
    At a meeting held on March 12-13, 2025, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Morgan Stanley Mortgage Securities Trust unanimously approved the reorganization of the Acquired Fund into a newly-created exchange-traded fund (“ETF”), which will be managed by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. (“MSIM”), which is also the investment adviser to the Acquired Fund. The Board, which is comprised solely of Trustees who are not “interested persons” (as defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended) of the Acquired Fund, determined that participation in the Reorganization (defined below) is in the best interests of the Acquired Fund and the interests of existing shareholders of the Acquired Fund (“Acquired Fund Shareholders”) will not be diluted as a result of the Reorganization.
    Subject to shareholder approval, the Acquired Fund will be reorganized into a newly-created ETF, Eaton Vance Mortgage Opportunities ETF (the “Acquiring Fund” and together with the Acquired Fund, the “Funds”), a series of Morgan Stanley ETF Trust (the “Acquiring Fund Trust”) (the “Reorganization”).
    If approved by Acquired Fund Shareholders, the Reorganization would be accomplished in accordance with an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization. Subject to shareholder approval, the Reorganization is anticipated to occur (after the close of trading) on or about August 1, 2025 (the “Closing Date”). This supplement is not a solicitation of proxy.
    Acquired Fund Shareholders of record on April 10, 2025 will receive a combined Proxy Statement and Prospectus that contains important information about the Reorganization and the Acquiring Fund, including information regarding the Acquiring Fund’s investment strategies and risks, fees and expenses.
    If Acquired Fund Shareholders approve the Reorganization, and certain other closing conditions are satisfied or waived, Acquired Fund Shareholders who own shares of the Acquired Fund (“Acquired Fund Shares”) through a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF will become shareholders of the Acquiring Fund (which will operate as an ETF) receiving shares of the Acquiring Fund (“Acquiring Fund Shares”) with an aggregate value equal to the aggregate net asset value (“NAV”) of their Acquired Fund Shares held immediately prior to the Reorganization, except with respect to cash received in lieu of fractional Acquiring Fund Shares, which cash payment may be taxable.
    The Acquiring Fund is a newly-created series of the Acquiring Fund Trust and will not commence operations until the consummation of the Reorganization. The Acquired Fund and the Acquiring Fund have identical investment objectives and principal investment strategies. However, there are important differences between the Acquired Fund and the Acquiring Fund. For example, although the Acquiring Fund will be subject to similar investment risks as the Acquired Fund, the Acquiring Fund will be subject to additional risks, such as structural risks related to ETFs, which will be described in the combined Proxy Statement and Prospectus. In addition, the Acquired Fund and the Acquiring Fund have substantially similar fundamental investment policies. However, the Acquired Fund’s investment objective is “fundamental” (i.e., it may not be changed without shareholder approval) whereas the Acquiring Fund’s investment objective may be changed without shareholder approval with notice to shareholders of the Acquiring Fund (“Acquiring Fund Shareholders”).
    MSIM believes that the Reorganization will provide multiple benefits for Acquired Fund Shareholders, including anticipated lower gross and net expenses as well as additional trading flexibility, increased transparency and the potential for enhanced tax efficiency. However, given that the Acquiring Fund will effect some or all of its creations and redemptions in cash rather than in-kind, a shareholder will not benefit from the greater tax efficiency of the ETF structure to the same extent as a shareholder of an ETF that effects all of its creations and redemptions in-kind.
    The Reorganization is structured to be a tax-free reorganization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. As a result, Acquired Fund Shareholders generally will not recognize a taxable gain (or loss) for U.S. tax purposes as a result of the Reorganization (except with respect to cash received or with respect to investors whose shares are redeemed prior to the Reorganization, as explained elsewhere in this Supplement).
    In addition, to fund redemption transactions prior to and in connection with the Reorganization, the Acquired Fund may have to sell securities. These transactions may also result in net realized capital gains to the Acquired Fund, which may result in taxable distributions to shareholders either (i) by the Acquired Fund prior to the Reorganization or (ii) by the Acquiring Fund after the Reorganization.
    Importantly, in order to receive Acquiring Fund Shares as part of the Reorganization, Acquired Fund Shareholders must hold their Acquired Fund Shares through a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF (i.e., the Acquiring Fund). If Acquired Fund Shareholders do not hold their Acquired Fund Shares through that type of brokerage account, they will not receive Acquiring Fund Shares as part of the Reorganization. For Acquired Fund Shareholders that do not currently hold their Acquired Fund Shares through a brokerage account that can hold Acquiring Fund Shares, please see the Q&A that follows for additional actions that such Acquired Fund Shareholders must take to receive Acquiring Fund Shares as part of the Reorganization. Other than the approval by the requisite vote of Acquired Fund Shareholders, no further action is required for Acquired Fund Shareholders that hold Acquired Fund Shares through a brokerage account that can hold Acquiring Fund Shares.
    If (and only if) the Reorganization is approved by Acquired Fund Shareholders, it is expected that effective on or about the first business day of the month following shareholder approval of the Reorganization (the “Effective Date”), the following fees will be waived: (i) the sales charge on purchases of Class A shares of the Acquired Fund; (ii) the contingent deferred sales charge (“CDSC”) on Class A and Class C shares of the Acquired Fund; (iii) the 12b-1 fees for any applicable share class of the Acquired Fund; and (iv) any finder’s fee payments applicable to any class of shares of the Acquired Fund. Also, effective on the Effective Date, any current Letter of Intent under which Class A shares of the Acquired Fund were purchased would be considered completed. In addition, it is currently expected that if (and only if) the Reorganization is approved by Acquired Fund Shareholders, effective on the Effective Date, the Acquired Fund will be closed to new investors.
    The Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information will be amended accordingly...
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    @larryB - Yes, my younger self also responded differently from the current me. I was w*rking in 2000 and 2008 then and socking money into my retirement funds while they were cheaper. My equity position was approx 75% at the time. As I entered retirement 7 years ago, I reduced to 35% and then during the 2020 recession I timidly added to stocks.
    I agree, this time may be completely different as noted by previous posters and threads. I have kept a significant (for me) cash stash, to aid my wife and me through this *downturn.* Enough to cover 2-3 years even if social security is impacted.
    So my head isn’t in the sand regarding our nation, economy, and stock market; and I’m not looking to be *right* in this post. I am looking for direction just like everyone here, and find evaluating the data that the stock market is giving, even if it becomes stale immediately, that’s what I’ve got.
    I may be looking at the wrong data and would always appreciate additional information.
  • Rekenthaler: it's not all about the tariffs
    I think it unwise to base investment decisions on any macro read. It’s hard enough for professionals to get it right. Why should a retail investor so attempt? Here’s an (albeit extreme) example of how an early macro read based on national governance might have proven incorrect.
    “In the space of four years, Nazi Germany changed from a defeated nation, a bankrupt economy, strangled by war debt, inflation and lack of foreign capital; into full employment with the strongest economy and biggest military power in Europe.”
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    The author opened with this: “ President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules. A lot of people are wondering what it all means for the economy, jobs, housing, inflation and the stock market.
    The truth is no one knows. But the best guess lies in the collective wisdom of markets — the countless independent buy and sell decisions manifested in stock and bond prices.”
    I found the quantitative argument by the author had merit. He listed his reasoning by looking at how slow downs to recessions show-up through treasury, credit, and stock earnings price, and inflation expectations.
    Still, I wish I had moved more of my (now) 35% equity in retirement funds to cash instruments. But I had not. My urge to sell was/is tempered by the previous recoveries from 2000, 2008, and 2020.
    The fear-factor in the current climate is real for me, so I’m looking for data that I can understand to offset any emotional high-jacking.
  • Mirova Global Green Bond Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/770540/000119312525053920/d916411d497.htm
    497 1 d916411d497.htm NATIXIS FUNDS TRUST I
    Supplement dated March 13, 2025 to the Mirova Global Green Bond Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2024, as may be revised or supplemented from time to time.
    Mirova Global Green Bond Fund
    On March 13, 2025, the Board of Trustees of Natixis Funds Trust I (the “Trust”), on behalf of the Mirova Global Green Bond Fund (the “Fund”), upon the recommendation of the Fund’s adviser, Mirova US LLC, approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Fund pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated (the “Liquidation”) on or about June 25, 2025 (“Liquidation Date”). Any shares of the Fund outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on that date.
    Effective March 13, 2025, purchases made by existing shareholders will not be subject to front-end sales charges. No commission payments will be made to intermediaries on purchases effective this date. In addition, redemptions made by existing shareholders will not be subject to any sales charges, including contingent deferred sales charges. The proceeds from any such redemption will be the net asset value of the Fund’s shares after expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. Lastly, the Fund may make one or more distributions of income and/or net capital gains on or prior to the Liquidation Date in order to eliminate Fund-level taxes.
    Effective March 13, 2025, Natixis Distribution will no longer accept investments in the Fund from new investors (subject to intermediary discretion). Effective June 11, 2025, Natixis Distribution will no longer accept additional investments in the Fund from current shareholders of the Fund, including additional investments through automatic or systematic investment plans.
    On or before the Liquidation Date, the Fund’s affairs shall be wound up and its securities and other assets shall be sold for cash or cash equivalents. The Fund shall have the authority to engage in such transactions as may be appropriate to its dissolution, winding up, liquidation, and termination. In connection with the liquidation, the Fund may deviate from its investment strategies disclosed in its Prospectus and intends to invest all of the Fund assets in short-term cash equivalent securities starting in mid-June, to facilitate the payment of distributions, if required, and an orderly liquidation on or about June 25, 2025. For federal income tax purposes, the automatic redemption on the Liquidation Date will generally be treated like other redemptions of shares and may result in a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes. If Fund shares are capital assets in the hands of a shareholder, such gain or loss, if any, generally will be taxed as short- or long-term capital gain or loss depending on how long the shareholder held the shares. 
    At any time prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their shares of the Fund pursuant to the procedures set forth under “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. Shareholders may also exchange their shares, subject to investment minimums and other restrictions on exchanges as described under “Exchanging or Converting Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus. For federal income tax purposes, an exchange of the Fund’s shares for shares of another Natixis Fund is generally treated as a sale on which a gain or loss may be recognized. Each shareholder should consult with his or her tax adviser for more information on his or her own situation.
    Absent an instruction to the contrary prior to the Liquidation Date, for shares of the Fund held in custodial accounts within an IRA, Roth IRA or plans such as SEP, SIMPLE, SARSEP or 403(b), or in certain other accounts, Natixis Distribution, LLC (“Natixis Distribution”) will exchange any shares remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date for shares of the Loomis Sayles Limited Term Government and Agency Fund at net asset value. Please refer to your plan documents or contact your plan administrator, plan sponsor, or other financial intermediary that maintains your account to determine whether the preceding sentence applies to you.
  • S&P 500 slides into correction territory as Trump trade wars spook investors
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Key US stock index closes more than 10% down from February peak amid volatility caused by president’s tariff
    The S&P 500, a key US stock market index, closed in correction territory on Thursday as the volatility of Donald Trump’s trade wars rattled investors. The index closed more than 10% down from its 19 February peak as Wall Street approaches the end of a second week of pressure. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite also closed in correction last Thursday, while the Dow is over 9% down from its peak in December
    On Thursday, after Canadian and EU leaders hit back on American tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the US president threatened a new 200% tariff on European alcohol, in response to a 50% EU tariff on American bourbon imports. Canadian and European leaders have vowed to not back down to Trump, even as he promises to slap on even more tariffs in response to any pushback. “We will not give in to threats,” said Laurent Saint-Martin, France’s foreign trade minister. “Donald Trump is escalating the trade war he chose to unleash.”
    Trump and those within his administration have played down concerns about the lasting impacts the tariffs will have on the US economy. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the administration was focused on the “long-term gains in the market and long-term gains for the American people”. “I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks,” Bessent said.
    The US stock market saw a brief moment of reprieve on Wednesday after February’s inflation report showed that price increases weren’t as bad as expected. But stocks started to drop again after Canada and the EU placed tariffs on American exports.
    Amid uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies, officials with the US Federal Reserve are expected to hold interest rates steady at their upcoming meeting next week, which is unlikely to improve sentiment on Wall Street.
  • Donald Trump threatens 200% tariff on EU wine and champagne
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    US president says levy on alcohol imports would be retaliation for ‘nasty’ 50% tariff imposed on bourbon whiskey
    Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on wine and champagne from European Union countries, in the latest threat of escalation in the global trade war started by the US president against the country’s biggest trading partners. Trump said in a post on Thursday on his Truth Social platform that the tariffs on all alcoholic products from the bloc would be retaliation for a “nasty” 50% levy on American bourbon whiskey announced by the EU.
    The EU’s action against bourbon whiskey – due to come into force on 1 April – was itself part of a €26bn ($28bn) response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which came into effect on Wednesday.
    Despite starting the trade war, Trump appeared to be infuriated by the EU’s retaliatory measures. He wrote: “If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. “This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” he added.
    Senior figures in Europe vowed to hold firm. “We will not give in to threats,” the French foreign trade minister, Laurent Saint-Martin, wrote on X. “Donald Trump is escalating the trade war he chose to unleash.” France was “determined to retaliate” and would “always protect our sectors”, he added.
    In France, independent winemakers represent 60% of the country’s wine production. They are watching closely to see how the dispute plays out. French winemakers were concerned they could be swept into the broader tariff row, and had feared tit-for-tat measures when the EU announced retaliatory tariffs on some American products, including US whiskey.
    European shares fell on Thursday, amid concerns over the impact of a trade war. France’s Cac 40 index gave up morning gains to fall by 0.3%, while Germany’s Dax index fell by 0.6%. Leading European drinks giants came under pressure. Shares in Pernod Ricard fell almost 4% and Rémy Cointreau declined 3.5%. LVMH, owner of Moët & Chandon, slipped 1.4%. The S&P 500 dipped 0.7% after Wall Street opened for trading. Trump’s officials have attempted to brush off days of stock market declines, claiming they are not worried about it.
    Trump also repeated a longstanding criticism of the EU, that the trading bloc “was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States”, calling it “one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world”.
    Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive, said on Wednesday that trade between Europe and the US “brought prosperity and security to millions of people, and trade has created millions of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic”.
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
    Thanks. I wondered about junk bonds. Don’t track them much. I do track FKIQX (OEF) and INCM (it’s sibling ETF). Both hold a lot of junk and a lot of income producing stocks. Both seem to be unwinding in recent days. My guess is that high dividend equities are turning south along with junk.
    I wouldn’t touch JBBB after the run it had in ‘24 - even before then …
  • “There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets”
    Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold the short-term AES position for a tiny gain on today's pop following the bond issue yesterday. May replace it with a combo spread to preserve capital and/or buy back in if/when it drops back down to 10 b/c I like the sector and its global footprint, but feel right now it's getting treated more as a frothy growth stock given its focus on renewables.
  • International-Stock Funds Finally Wake Up
    ”The average U.S.-stock mutual fund or exchange-traded fund fell 2.9% for February, according to data from LSEG, formerly Refinitiv Lipper. That trimmed the year-to-date gain to just 0.5%, as the February weakness wiped out most of the gains from January. (See funds-data tables including Mutual-Fund Yardsticks.) Meanwhile, international-stock funds, which were outgunned by their U.S. counterparts in 2024, reversed the trend by rising an average 2.2% in February, to boost their year-to-date gain to 6.9%.”
    Story - Originally WSJ
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Eggs are not "eggs". They come in many grades and varieties. One store that we visit each week has at least six different types of eggs, varying on size, color, and feeding/living conditions of the laying chickens. The prices range from approximately $5 to $12 per dozen. This particular store happens to be in a Northern California agricultural area which has been an egg and chicken producing center for at least 100 years, so the store has local access to many types of available eggs..
    You're making me hungry. :) :) :)
    Sounds like Andy's Produce near Sebastapol, among other fine stores in Sonoma. Of course Petaluma was known as the Egg Capital of the World back in the day.
  • Leuthold: current small cap valuations correlation wtih 14% forward returns
    There is a line of thinking that the current small-caps (SCs) are different from those of the past.
    Many companies are remaining private for much longer - several are unicorns. Money from private-equity and venture-capital is easy. There are few public reporting obligations. What's not to like?
    Many mutual fund firms (Fido, etc) are also able to tap into the private-equity market.
    Private companies have another problem - some are just too big for 100% public IPOs, so those few that do the IPOs do it for only 10-20%, and then their insiders wait to unload the rest later gradually (if they can).
    At the same time, good SCs that grew graduated into MCs/LCs.
    So, what remains is a bad SC bunch with some 35-40% of R2000 operating at loss. The OP chart is for better SP SC 600.
    Many SCs cannot access the bond market, so they rely on bank-loans.
    SCs may have become like a dwindling pond without refreshing supply.
    30-yr charts don't capture this shift.
    Repeated failed SC rallies have only frustrated the investors.
    While I have a small position in SCs, I hesitate to load up the truck because this time may be different (for SCs). Total market etf VTI is 72% LC, 20% MC, 8% SC. The global total market etf VT is even more lopsided with 74% LC, 19% MC, 6% SC (so, the LC tilt isn't just a US issue, but a global issue).
  • The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.
    Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.
    But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.
    The S&P 500 fell 3.1% last week, wiping out its postelection gains and pushing it into the red for 2025, a rare stint of underperformance versus many global peers. The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, a drop of 10% or more from its recent high.
  • West Loop Realty Fund will be liquidated
    Chilton Capital Management LLC is the fund's sub-advisor.
    Its principal office is located at 1177 West Loop South in Houston, Texas.
  • West Loop Realty Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318342/000139834425005240/fp0092563-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0092563-1_497.htm
    West Loop Realty Fund
    Class A Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIAX)
    Class C Shares (Ticker Symbol: REICX)
    Class T Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIDX)
    Institutional Class Shares (Ticker Symbol: REIIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 10, 2025 to the currently effective
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the West Loop Realty Fund (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about April 18, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Any liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders (including but not limited to shareholders holding shares through tax-deferred accounts) should contact their tax advisers to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Under certain circumstances, liquidation proceeds may be subject to withholding taxes.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Chilton Capital Management LLC, the Fund’s sub-advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-800-207-7108 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.