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Maybe something like certainty will begin to appear as we get closer to April 2. On the other hand, things could also get crazier. No one knows which direction the trade wars will go. And we have yet to see data resulting from those tariffs that have gone into effect.The market's main issues as stocks declined? Growing uncertainty around President Trump's policies, how those might impact a weakening economic growth outlook — and fears over the artificial intelligence boom disappointing. In the past week, there's been little evidence that those fears were overblown.
In other words, other than some stocks being "cheaper" than they were a month ago, when the S&P 500 hit its most recent high, there haven't been a lot of compelling cases to convince investors — who didn't buy stocks last week — to pile in now.
Plenty of survey data has cited concerns about how tariffs could impact both consumer and business spending. But there haven't been enough hard data points, like significantly softening consumer spending numbers, weak labor reports, or a swath of earnings guidance cuts, to complete the story.
"The vibes have helped us understand why the stock market has been getting hit so hard, and why concerns about the direction of the economy are rising," RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina wrote. "But the vibes aren't sending us a clear signal about whether, even with the S&P 500 down 10% from all time highs, a contrarian buying opportunity is at hand."
The S&P 500, a key US stock market index, closed in correction territory on Thursday as the volatility of Donald Trump’s trade wars rattled investors. The index closed more than 10% down from its 19 February peak as Wall Street approaches the end of a second week of pressure. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite also closed in correction last Thursday, while the Dow is over 9% down from its peak in December
On Thursday, after Canadian and EU leaders hit back on American tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the US president threatened a new 200% tariff on European alcohol, in response to a 50% EU tariff on American bourbon imports. Canadian and European leaders have vowed to not back down to Trump, even as he promises to slap on even more tariffs in response to any pushback. “We will not give in to threats,” said Laurent Saint-Martin, France’s foreign trade minister. “Donald Trump is escalating the trade war he chose to unleash.”
Trump and those within his administration have played down concerns about the lasting impacts the tariffs will have on the US economy. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday that the administration was focused on the “long-term gains in the market and long-term gains for the American people”. “I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks,” Bessent said.
The US stock market saw a brief moment of reprieve on Wednesday after February’s inflation report showed that price increases weren’t as bad as expected. But stocks started to drop again after Canada and the EU placed tariffs on American exports.
Amid uncertainty around Trump’s trade policies, officials with the US Federal Reserve are expected to hold interest rates steady at their upcoming meeting next week, which is unlikely to improve sentiment on Wall Street.
Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on wine and champagne from European Union countries, in the latest threat of escalation in the global trade war started by the US president against the country’s biggest trading partners. Trump said in a post on Thursday on his Truth Social platform that the tariffs on all alcoholic products from the bloc would be retaliation for a “nasty” 50% levy on American bourbon whiskey announced by the EU.
The EU’s action against bourbon whiskey – due to come into force on 1 April – was itself part of a €26bn ($28bn) response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which came into effect on Wednesday.
Despite starting the trade war, Trump appeared to be infuriated by the EU’s retaliatory measures. He wrote: “If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. “This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.,” he added.
Senior figures in Europe vowed to hold firm. “We will not give in to threats,” the French foreign trade minister, Laurent Saint-Martin, wrote on X. “Donald Trump is escalating the trade war he chose to unleash.” France was “determined to retaliate” and would “always protect our sectors”, he added.
In France, independent winemakers represent 60% of the country’s wine production. They are watching closely to see how the dispute plays out. French winemakers were concerned they could be swept into the broader tariff row, and had feared tit-for-tat measures when the EU announced retaliatory tariffs on some American products, including US whiskey.
European shares fell on Thursday, amid concerns over the impact of a trade war. France’s Cac 40 index gave up morning gains to fall by 0.3%, while Germany’s Dax index fell by 0.6%. Leading European drinks giants came under pressure. Shares in Pernod Ricard fell almost 4% and Rémy Cointreau declined 3.5%. LVMH, owner of Moët & Chandon, slipped 1.4%. The S&P 500 dipped 0.7% after Wall Street opened for trading. Trump’s officials have attempted to brush off days of stock market declines, claiming they are not worried about it.
Trump also repeated a longstanding criticism of the EU, that the trading bloc “was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States”, calling it “one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the world”.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the EU’s executive, said on Wednesday that trade between Europe and the US “brought prosperity and security to millions of people, and trade has created millions of jobs on both sides of the Atlantic”.
Thanks. I wondered about junk bonds. Don’t track them much. I do track FKIQX (OEF) and INCM (it’s sibling ETF). Both hold a lot of junk and a lot of income producing stocks. Both seem to be unwinding in recent days. My guess is that high dividend equities are turning south along with junk.Junk bonds are finally unraveling. Also YTD cash as in SNAXX is handily besting bank loan funds - the stars of the past couple years. Bank loan funds hold below investment grade debt. Cash is also besting the CLO ETFs both the higher rated ones such as JAAA with the lower rated ones such as JBBB which is negative on the year. JBBB had seen mid teen double digit gains in each of the past two years. Something is certainly afoot.
You're making me hungry. :) :) :)Eggs are not "eggs". They come in many grades and varieties. One store that we visit each week has at least six different types of eggs, varying on size, color, and feeding/living conditions of the laying chickens. The prices range from approximately $5 to $12 per dozen. This particular store happens to be in a Northern California agricultural area which has been an egg and chicken producing center for at least 100 years, so the store has local access to many types of available eggs..
A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.
Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.
But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.
The S&P 500 fell 3.1% last week, wiping out its postelection gains and pushing it into the red for 2025, a rare stint of underperformance versus many global peers. The Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, a drop of 10% or more from its recent high.
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