Ever since American manufacturing entered a long stretch of automation and outsourcing in the late 1970s, every recession has led to the loss of factory jobs that never returned. But the recovery from the pandemic recession has been different: American manufacturers have now added enough jobs to regain all that they shed — and then some.
American manufacturers cut roughly 1.36 million jobs from February to April of 2020, as Covid-19 shut down much of the economy. As of August this year, manufacturers had added back about 1.43 million jobs, a net gain of 67,000 workers above prepandemic levels.
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said that the recovery of manufacturing jobs was a result of the unique nature of the recession, which was induced by the pandemic, and the robust federal response, including legislation like the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan of 2021.
American manufacturers, like many industries, have struggled to find raw materials, component parts and skilled workers. And yet, they have continued to create jobs at a rate that has surprised even some longtime promoters of American factory employment.
In recessions over the last half century, factories have typically laid off a greater share of workers than other employers in the economy, and they have been slower to add jobs back in recoveries. Often, companies have used those economic inflection points to accelerate their pace of outsourcing jobs to foreign countries, where wages are significantly lower, and to invest in technology that replaces human workers.
Manufacturing jobs quickly rebounded in the spring of 2020, then began to climb at a much faster pace than has been typical for factory job creation in recent decades. Since June 2020, under both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, factories have added more than 30,000 jobs a month.
Sectors that hemorrhaged employment in recent recessions have fared much better in this recovery. Furniture makers, who eliminated a third of their jobs in the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, have nearly returned to their prepandemic employment levels. So have textile mills, paper products companies and computer equipment makers.
Manufacturers say the numbers could be even stronger, if not for their continued difficulties attracting and hiring skilled workers amid 3.7 percent unemployment.
Businesses are also beginning to question the wisdom of producing so many goods in China, amid rising tensions between Washington and Beijing over trade and technology. The Chinese government’s insistence on a zero-Covid policy, despite the severe disruptions it has caused for the economy, has especially shaken many executives’ confidence in their ability to operate in China.
But while growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector was strong last year, so were imports of manufactured goods. That suggests that the growth of manufacturing probably reflects strong consumer demand in the United States through the pandemic, rather than a shift to production in the United States.
The director of the National Economic Council said “One of the most striking things that we are seeing now is the number of companies — U.S. companies and global companies — that are committing to build and expand their manufacturing footprint in the United States, and doing so based on their view that not only did the pandemic highlight the need for more resilience in their supply chains, but that the United States is creating a policy environment that makes long term investment here in the United States more attractive.”

I certainly don't know where the bottom is, but international equities look cheap, especially given the outsized gains of the US dollar. I nibbled at FNDF, even though I doubt international equities will be big winners. Mean reversion is my hope.

.You are spot-on in debunking the attributed original source of the often cited “blood in the streets” expression, which itself varies from purported author to author. I posted not to praise condemn or describe Mr. Rothschild.

While it provides a good read for two key parts of the economy, it also serves as reliable indicator of what may be coming down the road. FedEx's earnings contracted in a similar way during the last three recessions — in 2020, 2009, and 2001, according to analysts at Barclays.

In a challenging economy, FedEx isn't delivering, and that has Wall Street worried.
Last quarter it processed fewer packages because of "weakening economic conditions," and operating income at FedEx Express fell by 69%, according to FedEx's latest earnings report, released on Thursday.
Expenses at its ground carrier were up, and now the company plans to raise its rates by about 7%, on average.
The company is going to take some of its aircraft out of service and scale back Sunday delivery. On top of that, it intends to close almost 100 retail locations and, like many companies right now, it plans to press pause on hiring until the economic uncertainty around the world clears up.
FedEx also says it faces "service challenges" in Europe, where a recession looks likely, and "macroeconomic weakness" in Asia, which continues to struggle from strict COVID lockdowns, as well.
While it provides a good read for two key parts of the economy, it also serves as reliable indicator of what may be coming down the road. FedEx's earnings contracted in a similar way during the last three recessions — in 2020, 2009, and 2001, according to analysts at Barclays.
Today, FedEx has a giant global footprint. It operates in more than 200 countries, and the Memphis-based company's half a million employees process more than 15 million shipments every day.