Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Value and momentum both work. To laugh at a value funds performance during the fifth year of a V shaped bull market is ignorant. If you want some serious long term Sharpe, try combining the two.
Barry had a great, lively blog in the early days. I had many conversations with him and think he's a good guy. But he makes a lot of money from AUM now and I think that colors what he writes now whether he notices it or not. I've seen this formula p…
There's a Pizza Cono in the US? Saw it for the first time this year in San Juan! I thought the idea so resoundingly bad that it would never be repeated. Squirrel Hill? Really?
rjb112-
You have this right. I would refine your opinion by saying its his performance from 2010 on that was bad. Given his approach, it was his execution of the hedging, not the timing of it, that led to his unacceptable negative returns.
Well, the "value"would be around the 10 year part of the curve. The spread there looks okay I suppose compared to what the economy appears to be doing.
As a tactical play, they must believe that the Treasury position will have more value than the option the cash provides. If the economy decelerates, this will be true as a short term matter.
"These days known as cash position." LOL. True!
I am unconvinced that these alternative strategy fund of funds are robust against the next cyclical bear market. Personally, I would be interested in a volatility strategy. Extremely cheap right now. …
Hi Vintage-
I know Ron Lake. I do not know his brother. I've looked at their strategy. I haven't felt compelled to do more research on it or call.
What portfolio need are you looking to satisfy? I'm sure there are cleaner, less expensive alternati…
The thanks go to Mona- for pointing out to others what they should be doing for themselves: actively working to understand a fund and how it operates.
Disclosure: Much family money in RPHYX, RSIVX, and related vehicles.
The problem with Siegel is his promotion of and financial tie to WisdomTree. He abandoned unbiased research in my opinion, and is unqualifiedly bullish no matter what. He sold both his name and reputation.
Spoke to them on several occasions. Last time was in 2005. They were absurdly overweight the FIRE sector and preaching that as "safe and cheap". It wasn't.
Marty was brilliant. I read his book. As one commenter said, "lost their way".
PE on AS REPORTED earnings on 6/27 for R2000 was 84. But PE on forecast OPERATING earnings for the next twelve months was around 19. Hmm. Sources are Standard and Poors and Birinyi respectively, though I don't respect either of those two shops.
As …
I call " bullsh@t" on the claimed forward PE of the Vanguard offering. Small caps are wildly overvalued and will likely lead the next decline. I would never advise initiating or adding to SC exposure here.
I agree with the notion that links should not be posted unless the article has been read by the poster and a one sentence description of why it is of interest to the discussion community is provided. Otherwise its a low or no value effort. Likewise …
Perhaps, Ted, its because as funds go this one is very different. You can dismiss it because its not to your taste, doesn't suit your purposes, or just because you want to be contrary and clever, but that doesn't mean its strategy doesn't have a pur…
Funds like this have a role. If you are a Mo-Mo guy, a fund switcher, or want to outperform in up markets and in down markets, you will not want to invest in this fund. David understands careful portfolio construction. That's why he said what he did.
Apparently, it would be those who wish to outperform the SP500 by being better at playing defense than offense ('better relative performance 2000-2002, 2008). There's more than one way to skin a cat.
David-
I have the downsizing thing on my to do list also. Totally understand the stress of closings, regular jobs and ,yes, fund managers!
Thanks again for all you do for the mutual fund investor.
MarkM
Well Charles just found one of them. I've been a fan of and correspondent with Meb Faber for years!
I like Andrew Smithers books Valuing Wall Street and Wall Street Revalued. His latest containing solutions to the constant bubble blowing is only fa…
Hank-
You don't skate to where the puck is, you skate to where its going to be. Wayne Gretzky said that, and its true for investing as well. It helps with Buffett's Rule No1: Don't lose money.
rjb112--
That's the sell side spin of course. They are hoping you read the headline and not the actual quarterly letter. Typical.
His estimate on overvaluation of the SP500 is 65%. Mine says it is closer to 100% overvalued. That being said I am no…
All-
I have taken the liberty to self-report to David this disagreement. In addition to mine to David, who I consider a professional friend, I want to apologize to the MFO readership for the distraction from the study of mutual funds, their utiliz…
MJG-
If you wish to call me out, go ahead and use my handle. No need to hide behind oblique references in your half page scribe. If you think my use of the quote by Shaw merits our hosts attention, please take a moment to come down from your high h…
Charles-
Perhaps in your attempts to convince those who refuse to even listen you would be wise to heed the words of George Bernard Shaw: "I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
Regards,
Ma…
MJG-
Thank you for your response. If you are going to tell a person that you think they are full of sh@t, could you do it without so much gasbaggery and pretentious gobbledygook? Just get on with it. It would save all of us the time of wading throu…
MJG-
You can be assured that there are more predictive timing methodologies out there (long term) than what would be disseminated freely by the website called MoneyChimp. Vanguards article does a fair number on some of the bad ones but doesn't real…
Charles-
The average cyclical bear market inside a secular bear market exceeds 38%. So what is it exactly about finding fair market value at approximately the bottom of that level that so shocks you? This isn't even prognostication, its market hist…
It's not the usual 60/40 fund though. It's expenses are in line with the strategy it employs which involves a lot of vehicle switching. It has bested FPACX since inception in returns to shareholders and that fund seems to have a rabid following arou…
A person could do a lot worse here than reading cman's comments. I do not know his background but find what he writes is never a waste of my time to read and often gives me pause.
I do not have a lot of time to comment. I most often do when I feel …
Bee-
A lot of pros use a similar setup. It's shorter term, but yeah, it's tradable. The skill is still in managing the trade though.
rjb- No, it's proprietary. It's a long term valuation measure so I only have a couple of turns left at this wheel …
Morningstar's fair value chart showed the market to be slightly overvalued in 2007, right before the crash. As I recall, it showed more overvaluation in 1999 but not crazily so. It would test out poorly as a timing tool for the market- not that anyo…
David-
Another excellent Commentary as usual. It's always a pleasure to read. I plan on speaking to the folks at Evermore as soon as I can.
Regards,
Mark
P.S. Ted? I think the video embedding obsession is past its sell by date.
M
Willmatt72-
If you are a frequent visitor to the site, you will quickly find that you recognize the handles of those posters who consistently give well thought out and considered advice. Read those and ignore the rest. Pareto's 80/20 principle.
Goo…
Investors who want to jump into European stocks would do well to look at FPIVX as a way to get exposure. New, but very promising start. Nearly 70% exposure there.
