Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
Reply to @Investor: I used daily SPY "Adjusted Close" from 1/1/2000 through today. It does include adjustments for dividends and splits. Just double-checked against my monthly database of total returns S&P500 TR. Sorry, sad but true. Less than 5…
Reply to @kevindow: Ha! You're right. Liew, Hurst, and Mendelson do, its actual portfolio managers, but Asness does not...ouch! You gotta love this business.
If AQRIX does not stop falling soon, I am going to scream. Mr. Asness et al down again today. Their 2Q13 commentary still not posted on AQR site.
Here's M* YTD performace plot:
And here's lifetime plot from AQR's own site, which they must find…
Wow! That means, through today, we've all earned a whopping 2.88% compound annualized growth before taxes by investing in US equities for the full 13.5 years starting off this millennium...and we only had to endure two 50% drawdowns =).
A reminder that there is no risk-free way to beat the 90-day T-Bill return.
A punch in the stomach to those that thought otherwise.
A splash of cold water for just about everybody else.
Part of the full-cycle for those that were invested in bonds…
Ha, so did not go so great today =).
I'll employ one of General Powell's rules: It ain't as bad as you think...it will look better in morning.
Especially given strong after hours earnings by QCOM, FB, V.
Still somewhat incredulous on today's outc…
Maybe it's Meredith's fault.
SlowLane posted she wrote a scary OpEd on Detroit's filing:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discussions-3/#/discussion/7084/post-detroit-filing
Reply to @AndyJ: You're telling me. What remains counter-intuitive is that when earnings and housing starts signal improvement (eg., F, NOC, AAPL), while these individual stocks may go up, overall markets decline. I think somebody posted yesterday t…
It's true, municipal bond funds do not get discussed much on the board.
Here's quick look at some of most consistent established top performers...all MFO 20-year Great Owl funds:
Most drew down 8-10% in 1994. Even these top performers have dr…
Mr. Arnott has taken some heat lately on the board, along with other fund managers that have been avoiding US equity markets. But RAFI appears to have legs. Here's link to short summary in David's May commentary, scroll down to "Three Messages from …
Reply to @kevindow: Good stuff Kevin, thank you. Anxious to see how folks at AQR document what went wrong in 2Q13 with their RP strategy and steps they will be taking to improve in future. So far, still only showing 1Q13 commentary.
FDSAX has good numbers, but it comes with 5.75% front load - indefensible in my opinion. Other share classes appear not so easily available. I'd look elsewhere. SCHD is indeed off to decent start. Here's glance at FDSAX along with some other establi…
Reply to @STB65: I added to SIGIX this week, along with FAAFX and AQRIX. Sold BRK and X for more BCS and ORI.
I think a couple undervalued sectors remain...certainly basic materials, energy/infrastructure, global financials, and foreign...especiall…
Reply to @Ted: Thank man. Hope you are correct. I'd be happy to just avoid a major pullback at this point. Get some stability back in the market for long term, if that's possible any more.
Reply to @mrc70: Mr. Arnott tends to be down on all developed markets where he sees debt and demographic headwinds similar to those he believes are facing US.
Reply to @Investor: I agree. But you are a proactive investor/trader...and you've helped me become one too. My put was from a B&H perspective, which is a strategy I've actually become wary of unless your time frame is truly very long, like 20 ye…
20 Years? Ha!
But let's pretend...
DODGX 50%
SIGIX 30%
VGENX 20%
In any case, you hold way too many funds...and too conservative for a 20 year horizon. Recommend you cut back to 5 funds, max.
Reply to @davidrmoran: No worries. We've starting switching over. So, from here on out at least, you will start seeing drawdown and downside as single words.
Reply to @MikeW: My pleasure. Your question about why did ARTGX receive a higher risk rating than MDISX is simply because of its higher volatility relative to market. Strictly based on numbers. Strictly based on past performance. No other subjective…
Thank Andy. I agree. Mr. Foster does an outstanding job keeping his stakeholders informed of his strategies and execution. Like it too that he is introducing us to others in the firm. I continue to be impressed with Seafarer's commitment to sharehol…
Reply to @fundalarm: Ha! Doesn't everyone? Really just having light fun and not meant to offend. If it helps, I am equally transparent in posting when holdings (eg., MBIA, AQRIX, BOND) go the other way, which is more often the case!
But on a broade…
Reply to @scott:
Yes, some things, like "bad is good because it means more easy monetary policy," are just counter-intuitive. Up to us I guess whether we accept them or not.
Hey, break, break.
Been looking more closely at KMP, thanks to you, as w…
Reply to @scott: Man, you are a phenom!
OK, how about this: "...not just stubbornly campaign about economic policy and acknowledge some positive fundamentals occurring in US today..."
No? Not even a little? Please tell me you too don't believe thi…
Reply to @BobC: Hi Bob. Part of issue is expectation. Investing in stock market comes with serious potential for deep, rapid loss, which I feel never gets articulated enough. Most of the "best of" lists are based on absolute returns. And none, to my…
Reply to @scott: Good stuff Scott, as always. His recent campaign is about the "3 D Hurricane" that the US economy faces, which is excessive debt, expanding deficit, and aging demographics. It's why he's avoided investing in US equities since 2009 I…
