Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
@MikeW. Literally, just looking around by Fund Family. Also, David's posts re: RiverPark. Just wanted to mention a couple examples. I'm sure there's a lot more. It did strike me that PIMCO's Total Return, once top dog, outperformed DoubleLine's Tota…
It was a bad month. The pandemic's economic impact is reminiscent of the financial crisis, only transpiring much faster. The world was unprepared. Hearing about "CV-19" at first seemed remote and contained, like the term "sub-prime mortgages." Then…
At first, I thought the hit would be more like 1987 or 9/11. Rapid, event-driven shock. But then, given its unprecedented and widespread nature, I believed this would be as bad as the Great Recession if not worse. That's the way I thought most folks…
On regulation, there just seems too much dispersion on how things are priced. In the post-modem, if not regulation or in addition to it, a better mechanism to buy and sell bonds, more like equities.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/godfather-of-etf…
Indexes are one thing. Ditto large, passive ETFs. Transparent. US Treasuries.
I read a Dave Nadig interview recently about bond pricing. He likens it to Zillow. Especially precarious with lightly traded assets in an open-ended vehicle that must sel…
The Russell 2000 much more indicative of the breath of hemorrhage than the SPY. Former now down from February peak 37% vs 27% for latter, intra-day 1 April. SPY heavy info/tech ... companies expected to fare better with CV-19 crisis.
@Crash. If today's S&P holds, I have it down (only) 18.5% from last peak, which means the bull market has not ended ... using month ending data only, which is pretty common.
Thank you all again for the additional thoughts and sharing of strategies you've developed!
@BenWP. Yes, I've had to cancel three flights because of CV-19 so far this year. Only Delta offered refund. Alaska and JetBlue credit only.
Thank you.
I can honestly say that in my 20 years of active investing, I've never witnessed more fear than I have the past 2-3 weeks. Even 2008-2009.
At some event level, is there a tipping point? That whatever I can get in CDs is good enough?
@MikeW. The fund's thesis was that senior non-agency RMBS debt once considered toxic was now much more credit worthy because: 1) borrowers now fully entrenched in their homes, 2) home values now exceed money owed ... more so each month due to both …
@BewWP. Yes, this month seems to be painting individual investors into a corner ... become day traders or risk the consequences of catastrophic loss.
Forget that quaint notion of checking your portfolio monthly, quarterly, semi-annually.
Really?
…
Of course, the two 50% drawdowns and the 3 bear markets over this period have helped keep millennials away from investing. I actually think they were finally starting to warm-up to it, until this March's madness.
Yes, exactly. That's why I love looking at rolling returns. You can't decide the year you were born and the 20-year period(s) you were invested. Going back 60 years through February, the S&P 500 delivered anywhere from 5.6% to 18.3% annualized o…
Yeah, I've been thinking same thing. Talk about potential for price dislocation. How does the market know what the true demand is when the Fed/Treasury is buying everything up? Maybe the Fed is just betting that demand and attendant liquidity will r…
Thanks Mark. Yes, I've seen the devastation there too. The Great Liquity Crisis of 2020. Something tells me things are going to change big time in the way CEFs, ETFs, and OEFs are priced. c
Yay! HYD and HYMB also up strong today and closed discounts to VWLAX prices. Maybe too this will help redemptions stop for IOFIX. Maybe it's fed intervening in market in general, offering MF firms interest free cash for redemptions. I don't know. Ma…
Yeah. And if it keeps going up, those of us that track to month-ending data only, there may never have been a bear! (Not my view, just saying.) The daily volatility this month (bond funds included) feels like five years! It is not something longer-t…
Good one MikeM. M* kinda of rubbing investors' noses in it ... "You should have been invested in one of our metal rated funds." And yes, they get to take a bow ... this March I sure wish I had been in PIMIX! But honestly, for the last 3 years, I was…
