Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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MikeM
I know you are not a fan of his, Mona (understatement :) )
Another Bills fan!!! Junkster just sent me a note saying the same. GO BILLS! They will be right down the road from me when training camp starts next week at St. John Fisher College. But tickets sold out in hours, so I won't be going. Are you from the area, Western NY?
I haven't gone to the withdraw side yet, but I did set myself up very much like you @bee. I only set aside 2 years, but I will up it to 3-4 years when I do finally give up my part-time work and start withdrawals. My withdrawal bucket must be more co…
Any time I see a post about DSEEX or CAPE I think of poster @davidmoran, who from my memory was the first to bring attention to these funds years ago. I don't catch everything here, but I haven't seen David post lately. Hope all is ok.
We once had a poster here that used ZH often to further his political talking points, even after the Russian proxy slant was brought up. I think he changed his name and doesn't post to often anymore.
U.S. Accuses Zero Hedge of Spreading Russian Pr…
I have been a bit over-weight commodities for a while holding a few ETFs' in that sector (COM, DBA, NANR). I started a plan to "slowly" move some of that over-weight money to a couple equity sectors starting with PPH (VanEck Pharmaceutical). QQQ is…
If they are reopening now, it indicates they are having a meaningful outflow.
They have stated the opposite per what Derf posted. Flows have been flat, even slightly net positive. Funds reopen to investors often because the managers see buying oppor…
When you talk small caps you will have to specify between value and growth. It is growth that is down (same as LC). Small cap value is actually holding up quite well. Vanguard SC value, VBR, is only down -7.3% YTD. Better than a balanced fund. SC g…
@hank, @BenWP, just to clarify, DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture) does not hold any corporate stocks, like Deere for instance. It invests in commodity futures. It follows a futures index. So for that, it won't necessarily follow the stock market like a s…
Gold was up a bit yesterday. I was tempted to add a little but didn't. I may add to IAU today and maybe a little more to commodities, COM. I could be wrong but I still think those 2 ETFs might be "relatively" decent plays throughout this year.
edi…
Thanks Charles and yogi. To be honest I overlooked the annualized rate implication. Still better than the Schwab MM rate though which my cash has been sitting in. I think I'll make $12 profit this month :)
FWIW, Schwab has some very short term CDs available with really good rates. I figure if I'm going to hold cash it might as well be in something returning more than their MM account SWVXX pays out.
I decided to put a bunch of cash into the 1 mo CD…
I think your Fidelity suggestion is a great one @yogibearbull. I've always used the TRP retirement fund(s) that correspond to the equity % I hold in my portfolio. But the drawback to the TRP funds is they adjust equity exposure over time. I may swit…
Yup, AOK tracks very closely to AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF). Even a closer tracking bonds fund is CTFAX, which many here, including myself, jumped on the band wagon with as a conservative alternative type fund. Low and behold CTFAX is…
Thanks @wxman123. I hope you are right.
The author definitely leaves this open to interpretation. I interpret what this says as we "may" be starting into a prolonged inflationary rising-rate environment like maybe the 60's-70's. I don't take that a…
I will tell you for sure @catch22, if I was handed a 1/2 million dollars at 70 years old to supplement my retirement days, I personally would not seek financial opinions from a posting board. I would go straight to a financial advisor.
Obviously th…
Not for nothing @catch22, but his couple needs encompassing financial advice and a long term financial plan from a good (fee only) financial advisor, not random opinions from a posting board.
@hank, JHQAX is not a long/short fund anymore than GATEX is. They both hedge the market using options, puts. JHQAX and GATEX both hedge the market using options trading. In that they are very similar and in the same category - options trading. Pers…
@Derf, well worth the cost to keep the Bills here, I think. I wish they put a retractable roof on the new stadium and added 10k more seats, but that would probably have doubled the cost.
It's very hard to keep an NFL franchise is such a small mark…
Hmmm, I guess the 'grass' always looks greener when you buy a fund like this. Now it's out in the 'weed'. Seemed like such a 'dope' idea. Up in 'smoke'.
@hank, I was only playing in energy because DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) happens to be ~50% energy. I wanted a 'broad basket commodity ETF and that's the one I bought last year. Inflation and rate hikes didn't just creep up on us. …
Thank you @davidsherman for posting. With my narrow view and understanding of SPAC's, I would never have even thought about them as a low volatility investment option, so I appreciate your post and tutorials. I've been in RPHYX for a while so I'm co…
You make a good point @hank that bond funds have fallen harder and sooner than the FED's 0.25% increase would indicate. I guess that is because like the equity markets, the bond market is also forward looking. I think many pundits believe the goal i…
My very uneducated take on bond funds is, they will continue to go down in total return as long as the FED is raising rates. But once they have achieved their goal and rates plateau, bond funds will be a good, safe investment again. That's not going…
Question, are bonds, bond funds in particular, affected only in the short term while rates are rising? If rates get to a new normal and plateau, don't they once again become a steady stream of income minus price volatility?
In at least one aspect…
Ahhh, the new @hank :) .
I recently (last week) did a switcheroo on my broad-basket commodities play. I bought DBC, Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund about a year ago and it's paid off really well. One of the smarter moves I've made among m…
Hi Yogi. Thanks for the post. I know this is a very popular survey. How do people generally use the data? Is it, 'this group is bearish so we should be bearish' or 'this group is bearish so we should be contrarian'. I've always wondered that actuall…
At close on 3/15: Thought I'd update progress on some of these benchmarks. Over all I'm at about -6.5% YTD with about 45% in equities. My total is spilt between the hands-off robo, Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, -6.0%, and my self-managed, -7.1%. It …
@Bobpa, do you remember the kiddie-ride at the amusement park where a little kid would sit in a little car and go around in a circle? Kids would turn that little steering wheel frantically pretending they were controlling the direction of that littl…
I see the recent rapid "decent" in commodities, especially oil the past week, as just a correction to the rapid "ascent" from when the war started. I don't think the recent decline has much to do about any change in inflation forecast. Just my 2-cen…
The FED should have started rate hikes at the end of last year, if not sooner. We would be in a better inflationary position to accept a .25% hike now - or none at all this time around. I believe history will show Powell F'ed up pretty bad with his …
We'll find out today if this is due to a more hawkish FED. 50 basis points instead of 25 maybe?
Barrons this morning:
...Either way investors now expect the Fed to be more hawkish.
Another inflation reading, February’s producer-price index due Tu…
Thanks @Puddnhead. But aren't utility rates regulated by government? I kind of think of utilities as somewhat of a not-for-profit company or at least regulated profit. Seems like their profit percentage wouldn't change. But I have know idea how that…
@Derf, hindsight or awareness? Commodities are an inflation hedge. People have been talking about the risk of high inflation for at least a year now. That said, I wouldn't sleep well with a 60:40 equity/commodities portfolio, but it may does make s…
