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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
More detail on the debate surrounding the Fed's look into releasing a CBDC.
Neha Narula, who’s leading the effort at MIT to work with the Boston Fed on a central bank digital currency, called the project “a once-in-a-century opportunity to redesign…
Another angle on our system of taxation (interpreting the fine print in an occasional Schedule K-1 is as close as I come to this approach):
Private Inequity: How a Powerful Industry Conquered the Tax System
Hi @davfor
Your graph is correct, but this reflects a one-time event (hopefully).
So, yes; FLDR was volatile during a time period; as well as other debt investments within mutual funds or etf's holding this type of debt. I suspect that most folks …
That works for me. I have enough $'s in FZFXX for a little quick trading. But the rest of my "cash" $'s are in ICSH, JPST, and RPHYX. FLDR is too volatile for my cash $'s.
M* Link
RPHYX has done the best of my 4 cash holdings this year (but i…
Some speculation on the future of oil production in an activist world:
An oil price rally coupled with the declining strength of oil majors would mean a large wealth transfer from the West to countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, until demand star…
Another angle on how the tensions embedded in the climate change challenge are playing themselves out in 2021....
Biden’s Fossil Fuel Moves Clash With Pledges on Climate Change
My limited knowledge of the subject tells me “Stablecoins” are not Bitcoin or Blockchain. Bitcoin’s purpose is not a “currency”.
My armchair perspective is that bitcoin and its cousins are mostly useful for money laundering, for speculation, and …
Regarding the assumption that inflation will kill the golden goose because of monetary and fiscal stimulus, one word--Japan. It could just as easily go the other way when the stimulus and "handouts"--somehow what happened last March with the Fed fo…
What will I do if the stock market declines by 20% or more? Nothing except maybe reallocate some $'s from cash/bonds to stocks/other. What -- if anything -- gets sold will depend on the reasons for the decline and tax considerations. What gets bo…
The SSTF is "sort of" real. It's real on paper. But, it isn't real in the sense that Canada's trust fund is real, i.e. mostly invested in equities and real estate. In the not too distant future, federal spending adjustments and additional taxes m…
...while Biden's $2 trillion-plus infrastructure plan aims for tectonic shifts throughout the economy, its success will depend mostly on cleaning up the grid even faster. This is partly because electricity is the only sector with clean, cheap and ef…
It's a day full of positive chatter. Here is another way to make some money during the Easy Money Bubble (a rerun of the turn of the century?). Let's hope the MMT folks are right and the Fed can successfully pivot:
“Given the amount of liquidity i…
New York-based hedge fund Senvest Management started investing in GameStop before it caught fire with much of the r/WallStreetBets crowd, and by October 2020, it owned more than 5% of the company.....after GameStop stock peaked at more than $400, th…
Interesting observations:
The Securities and Exchange Commission said Friday it is reviewing the recent volatility in GameStop and other stocks. Good. Not nearly enough is known about the perverse incentives and feedback loops driving these market m…
A deep dive look inside the no-fee options trading community:
...while millions are now discovering WallStreetBets for the first time, it has been building momentum throughout the pandemic. One can trace its epic rise to a perfect storm of favorable…
Too much time at home. But, hey, hedge funds shouldn't get to have all the fun...
Signs of a little spillover impact on ETFs but maybe not mutual funds...
The $189 million Wedbush ETFMG Video Game Tech ETF jumped more than 16.1% Wednesday, pushing…
Perhaps the clocks Hussman uses are engineered such that they finally work well again (they did for a while in the past). It's worth considering. Will look into HSAFX some more. Thanks for bringing it up......
Front Row , Bloomberg, Jeremy Grantham interview video, about 28 minutes
Much of what Grantham says appeals to my old fashioned mind. BUT. The Fed at this point appears to be fully committed to managing the economy. It clearly accepts the inefficie…
Grantham ties a close at hand deadline to his bubble call and warns more generally about future inflation:
‘We will have a few weeks of extra money and a few weeks of putting your last, desperate chips into the game, and then an even more spectacula…
FWIW....Just a few of my current thoughts about SVARX in relation to my current modest investment in it.
SVARX successfully navigated bond market changes as the pandemic unfolded last year. The pandemic will continue to impact market conditions as…
For anyone with an interest, here are a couple more links:
1. Spectrum Investment Advisors - archive of links to quarterly Newsletters:
https://client.spectruminvestor.com/189/quarterly-newsletters/2020-newsletters
2. Spectrum Financial Inc. -…
The April 2020 quarterly newsletter describes the SVARX active management approach over the preceding two years. The chart provides a good visual description. Scroll down to the Active Management section of the newsletter. (Reviewing the 12/31/19…
SVARX does a lot of trading of funds. Per their 11/30/20 Monthly Strategy Focus update the portfolio allocation was 86.45% on 10/31 and 178.08% as of 11/30 with the note "Can contain derivatives and/or short position". Per the Fact Sheet you linke…
Here are a couple of more stock market bubble articles, the first one short and second one with a fair amount of detailed background info:
First Article: Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator hits 13-year high, signaling global stocks are most…
Got to love Peter Sellers in "Being There".
That got added to my Amazon watch list after reading the article. No memories about seeing it before. It would have been so long ago it will be new to me even if I have.....
Warning: Investors need to understand their individual circumstances and their volatility and risk tolerances.....
FWIW....Most of the time I just observe. Market timing is left to others. (2019 to 2020 were exceptions to this observer mind set wh…
Here is another way to look at 2020 Asset Class Performance:
You get the drawdown, annual performance, and increase from the low in a single chart.
Taken From:
Can Earnings Growth Justify Current Stock Prices?
A little more from Grantham:
his “favorite Tesla tidbit” is that it boasts a market cap of $1.25 million for every car it sells, 140 times the GM figure of $9,000.
Investing legends Carl Icahn and Jeremy Grantham see a stock market bubble
@davidrmoran...."today, more 'party on"
Yes. This market thrives on anticipating additional new stimulus programs. Market bulls may even be pleased if the virus makes a strong last stand and thereby delays the arrival of the "economic recovery".…
@Derf Perhaps the domestic oil patch experienced enough carnage in 2020 and midstream suffered (and changed) enough over the course of the past 1/2 decade that both are poised to serve as good multi-year investments at this point. That's my genera…
This article looks at the potential impact of Democratic control of the Senate on Biden's climate proposals. Manchin's chair of the energy committee will soften the potential blows to carbon based fuels.
https://news.trust.org/item/2021010711013…
A puzzle piece that might help solve the funding part of Biden's energy policy challenge:
Biden, who oversaw the Obama administration’s stimulus work as vice president, unknowingly left himself a down-payment for the work ahead: $40 billion in unuse…
@Mark It seems likely that is at least partly due to it being a fund of funds. Here are the top holdings per M*. Also, per M* turnover is currently 389%. So, they keep active with their fund trading. That helped last winter.
Per their fact sh…
