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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
@yogibearbull The suggested annual withdrawal as of 12/31/23 under the system I described above was 4.0%. That is similar to my typical annual withdrawal prior to making the decision to focus on dividends rather than total returns. But, the curr…
Thanks for the comments. For about the first 15 years of retirement, I focused on total returns to help determine the withdrawal amounts from my investment portfolio . This method turned out to be somewhat complicated and stressful due to significa…
It's my sense the article's basic conclusion is accurate in the sense that msf described. But, that doesn't mean most people feel that they are better off. I suspect they continue to focus on their frustration that much of the stuff they buy regul…
The low level of estimated volatility of total returns for the floating rate ETF class of bonds reported in this recent table from Wealthfront caught my eye. That characteristic appears to tie in with the relative stability of the median annual ret…
The bond sleeve of my portfolio was reorganized as the ballast sleeve in early 2022 as the bond world ran into serious trouble. SVARX survived the transition and CBLDX and HMEZX were added (a small residual holding of RCTIX also remains). Those ho…
Is 7% coming soon?!.....
It took a while but has arrived.
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Tops 7%, Hits Highest Since 2001
It surprises me how much the rate has increased this year. But, the Fed is now getting it's way. Sales prices are soften…
I came out from under my rock long enough this morning to use a little cash to take a nibble at ORCC. The high income half (8% YOC) of the high yield sleeve (3% YOC) of the portfolio was a little underweight as of last weekend. (BDC's now make up …
It's been my expectation the stock market retreat would bottom somewhere close to it's current level. But, the Fed waited for something to break in a major way before beginning to raise rates. Perhaps it will wait for something (what?) to break in…
A little more about Powell's evolving strategy for getting inflation under control....
Powell “buried the concept of a soft landing” with his Aug. 26 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP. Now, “the Fed’s goa…
One commodity with the potential for price pressure for an extended period of time....
“This is the 1970s for natural gas,” says Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC, a Washington-based research firm. “The world is now thin…
My thoughts on the topic:
-So, I think bonds will find their final bottom b4 stocks. (Though stocks can have a countertrend rally any time, and July is usually an up month.)
The stock market decline has been very orderly so far and much uncertaint…
I know we're closer to the bottom that we were at the start of the year. Other than that, it depends on whether things are really broken or in only in need of a major tune up. I am currently doing a little tax loss trading and dribbling a few new …
@BaluBalu Here's a partial answer to your question. The Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) website can be accessed here. That site lists it's total asset value at $111B with 50% of the portfolio being in the residential sector. The Q1 …
Here is statistical info that lends support to the comment @Junkster made:
Those with cash and/or other financial resources are not yet being squeezed.
Here is a comment that focuses on the single family rental market issue @hank mentioned:
The U.…
Interesting. An 80% probability prediction is more than I would expect to result from a Fed model. Hopefully, it will be mild if it occurs. That's my base expectation......
The oil price shock caused by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is cited here…
Over the past month, losses among sectors have been fairly uniform. Overweight investments in the energy and utilities sectors mitigated my overall YTD stock market losses until then with the past week hurting my portfolio the most. It appears to…
Here is a link to the Mortgage News Daily Chart. It is current through today....
This page provides average 30 year fixed mortgage rates from several different surveys including Mortgage News Daily (daily index), Freddie Mac (weekly survey), Mortga…
Is 7% coming soon?!.....
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
The rate was 5.55% one week ago.
The drastic rate jump this week is the worst since th…
It appeared only at 133% magnification for me for VFIAX (Firefox). That was the highest magnification possible while still getting the full image to appear on the screen.
The Fed may be getting its way now that mortgage rates are in the 5% to 6% range. That impression corresponds with what I am seeing in small town NW Oregon.
The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi
Here is one way to decide if stagflation has arrived:
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has his own rough guide: Stagflation arrives in the United States, he says, when the unemployment rate reaches at least 5% and consumer prices ha…
Is high unemployment one of the characteristics of stagflation? Currently, the labor market is tight and unemployment is about 3%.
This simple description of stagflation makes sense to me:
Stagflation describes a highly unusual economic state of a…
Yesterday I made my first purchases of stocks from cash reserves since the start of the year after deciding those reserves and ballast sleeve holdings are sufficient. Nothing flashy for now. Added a little to SCHD and CDC. Also, initiated a small…
About reading the VIX tea leaves...VIX rose above 35 on 3/5/20 and continued to rise until the Fed made its announcemnt on 3/15. The stock market then bottomed on 3/23. VIX remained above 35 for about 1 1/2 months -- until 4/27. It has only pok…
All the stock market decline has done so far is to take its value back to early January 2021. But, gains since then occurred in a TINA market supercharged by pandemic stimulus support. Bond yields are now getting high enough they may begin to prov…
I suspected it was a sign of things to come when she started to receive daily headline press coverage. But, it somewhat surprises me how quickly things have unraveled. Some day it may make sense to buy a little ARKK.......
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading.
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder…
I wonder how they determined "the yield curve signals a lot of future rate hikes being priced in–so many, in fact, that the number of hikes would have to extend into 2024 to make sense."
It might make sense to see what the March 31 quarterly commentary will have to say about their recent thinking and positioning. The Outlook and Positioning section of the 12/31 commentary provides a review as of that date. But, the Trended Allocat…
Pg 16 (Better fit here): There are opportunities after an epic selloff in BONDS. Lot of rate hikes ahead may be in the market as the FED has been talking aggressively. Bonds may also be attractive for those who think that core inflation will come do…
