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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
Interesting. An 80% probability prediction is more than I would expect to result from a Fed model. Hopefully, it will be mild if it occurs. That's my base expectation......
The oil price shock caused by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is cited here…
Over the past month, losses among sectors have been fairly uniform. Overweight investments in the energy and utilities sectors mitigated my overall YTD stock market losses until then with the past week hurting my portfolio the most. It appears to…
Here is a link to the Mortgage News Daily Chart. It is current through today....
This page provides average 30 year fixed mortgage rates from several different surveys including Mortgage News Daily (daily index), Freddie Mac (weekly survey), Mortga…
Is 7% coming soon?!.....
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose 10 basis points to 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
The rate was 5.55% one week ago.
The drastic rate jump this week is the worst since th…
It appeared only at 133% magnification for me for VFIAX (Firefox). That was the highest magnification possible while still getting the full image to appear on the screen.
The Fed may be getting its way now that mortgage rates are in the 5% to 6% range. That impression corresponds with what I am seeing in small town NW Oregon.
The housing market just slid into a full-blown correction, says top economist Mark Zandi
Here is one way to decide if stagflation has arrived:
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has his own rough guide: Stagflation arrives in the United States, he says, when the unemployment rate reaches at least 5% and consumer prices ha…
Is high unemployment one of the characteristics of stagflation? Currently, the labor market is tight and unemployment is about 3%.
This simple description of stagflation makes sense to me:
Stagflation describes a highly unusual economic state of a…
Yesterday I made my first purchases of stocks from cash reserves since the start of the year after deciding those reserves and ballast sleeve holdings are sufficient. Nothing flashy for now. Added a little to SCHD and CDC. Also, initiated a small…
About reading the VIX tea leaves...VIX rose above 35 on 3/5/20 and continued to rise until the Fed made its announcemnt on 3/15. The stock market then bottomed on 3/23. VIX remained above 35 for about 1 1/2 months -- until 4/27. It has only pok…
All the stock market decline has done so far is to take its value back to early January 2021. But, gains since then occurred in a TINA market supercharged by pandemic stimulus support. Bond yields are now getting high enough they may begin to prov…
I suspected it was a sign of things to come when she started to receive daily headline press coverage. But, it somewhat surprises me how quickly things have unraveled. Some day it may make sense to buy a little ARKK.......
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder whom @davfor was thinking of or reading.
I never heard anyone credible say the timelines were short, perhaps my being ignorant, but I do wonder…
I wonder how they determined "the yield curve signals a lot of future rate hikes being priced in–so many, in fact, that the number of hikes would have to extend into 2024 to make sense."
It might make sense to see what the March 31 quarterly commentary will have to say about their recent thinking and positioning. The Outlook and Positioning section of the 12/31 commentary provides a review as of that date. But, the Trended Allocat…
Pg 16 (Better fit here): There are opportunities after an epic selloff in BONDS. Lot of rate hikes ahead may be in the market as the FED has been talking aggressively. Bonds may also be attractive for those who think that core inflation will come do…
@davfor; chart came through only for 1 yr. Use Permalink feature for posting chart as-is. After a while, even these will default to 1 yr. Alternative is to take screenshot, save on a hosting site (ImgBB, etc) and post using Image tool.
Does the char…
It has been my understanding the following simple StockCharts chart provides a total return comparison for UTF and VTSMX...in this case going back to 2004. Comments about the accuracy of my understanding will be appreciated.
UTF vs VTSMX
Many thanks for another information packed issue. A particular shout out from this house for the invest ideas provided by Lynn Bolin. I have already been researching a few of them. One additional note. My Firefox browser would not provide access…
@davfor, I also watch HMEZX, looks really interesting, but I am confused by mixed record of its manager James D. Dondero, e.g. at HSZAX, HHCZX, etc., see also https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1l0wrph2lc0j6/Nothing-Can-Stop-This-Hedge-…
@Junkster That didn't happen. I have been watching the bond world shift during Q1 of 2022 (including in the mortgages area you mentioned yesterday) and expect that trend to continue for a few more months or longer. What tipped the scales on RCTIX…
Decided to sell almost all shares of this multi-year position after reviewing the situation some more yesterday. Will watch on the sidelines until there is more clarity. (Retained a few shares as Fido now has a 100K minimum for opening a new posit…
This short post by Edward Yardeni discusses how the Fed is utilizing the yield curve as it searches for the neutral rate....
What about the narrowing yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries? During the Q&A session, Powell countere…
This is fascinating to watch. My "Its A Low Interest Rate World" mindset had decided that factors including demographic trends, AI, a low growth rate in Europe, and technology would likely combine to keep interest rates from rising significantly. …
@Derf Yes. It was the latter. But, overall, my portfolio is down 4.4% YTD. So, there has been a slight downturn. Non-stock investments have tended to drop in tandem with stock investments so far this year....somewhat to my surprise. Decisions …
Generally at the end/start of the calendar year. That's when any changes in the allocations generally get set for the new year. (My primary investment account is taxable.) If a substantial overall stock market drop occurs during the year rebalanci…
@Crash It might make sense to relabel this as Buy Sell Why 2022?....just a thought.
Still watching and sitting in Hold position since year-end shuffling completed in early January.
The expanded arsenal that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine includes 100 armed drones that are tube-launched from the ground and plunge into their targets....Army officials have described it as a flying shotgun. It’s less than 24 inches (61 centimeters…
Putin as a 21st century fascist? That description may help to explain him and this war. Isn’t Russia a Communist country?
I am no historian. But, I thought about that question after reading the "Putin Isn't Just An Autocrat...." article yesterda…
Putin as a 21st century fascist? That description may help to explain him and this war.
Putin Isn’t Just an Autocrat. He’s Something Worse.
Putin’s War on Ukraine Is About Ethnicity and Empire
Below are extensive excerpts from a current article in The Economist.
Thanks for those excerpts. Other reading suggests the extent of his military losses may not be as substantial as the excerpts suggest. But clearly the war is not going as he …
I doubt if Putin sees an advantage to deliberately pulling NATO into the conflict at this point. The Ukraine war is still in its early stages. But it is clear he is willing to push the boundaries on that front.
