Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
Here is an interesting interview with Tom Barrack (Colony Capital chairman) that looks at how regulatory requirements within the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market are connected to the current liquidity crisis in that market space. …
It will be interesting to see how the bond market's "let the air out" inclination balances out with the Feds newly enlarged and fully activated pumps. I am not betting against the Fed yet.
I am a 70 year old retiree. 80% of my portfolio is invested long term in OEFs. The other 20% is currently more actively invested.
What has changed for me since January 1? These are some off the top of my head thoughts....
There has been the o…
@Old_Skeet Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I currently have an order in that will do some rebalancing within my Mixed 1 Pot. That order will increase the % of that Pot invested in PFANX somewhat. But, I am also currently planning to DCA a few c…
My head shook when the Fed undertook massive QE during the Great Recession. I was surprised to see the markets full embrace of it. But the Don't Fight The Fed logic prevailed. I have gradually accepted the notion that there is no turning the cloc…
Concerning the oil price war, truce talks may occur sooner rather than later....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-rdif-exclusive/exclusive-russia-calls-for-new-enlarged-opec-deal-to-tackle-oil-demand-collapse-idUSKBN21E13T
Here are some possible next steps by the Fed. (Its sounding more and more like the low rate world will be with us at least until the crisis passes) --
Potential Monetary Response
• Forward guidance to signal FFR will remain at 0.00% well beyond th…
It may be several months before paper checks show up in the mail....
https://reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-irs-explainer/explainer-hobbled-irs-tax-agency-may-need-months-to-get-cash-to-americans-idUSKBN21D2II
Powell is appearing on mainstream media providing reassurance the public. Here is a little detail:
Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve would provide essentially unlimited lending to support the economy as long as it is damaged by the viral outbr…
@newgirl It depends. Matthews has a good brand name, i.e. they seem in general to be investor focused and knowledgeable about their investment products. But, there is some sense they are slicing the EM pie into too many pieces by coming out with …
I have been harvesting tax losses in my trading pot in cases that provide me the opportunity to improve the quality of its holdings at a reasonable entry point. This downturn is providing those opportunities. My OEFs are almost all long term holdi…
I was reassured to read this report when it hit my inbox this morning as I had doubled my investment in PDI after the Fed acted on Monday based on my assumption it is still in good shape.
@Sven Its my understanding the massive stimulus bill the Senate will vote on today will provide substantial cash to individual households including $1200 checks to many individuals and an additional $600 per week for 4 months in unemployment insura…
Here is an article that discusses some of the reasons the Powell Put Act 2 announcement on Monday may turn out to have been significant....
Powell’s message is that the Fed’s support for U.S. business is unlimited, “in the amounts needed to support …
The statement made in the headline makes sense to me....at some point the restrictions on interactions between people will need to reduced. There will be serious debate concerning how soon and in what way we make that happen. Trump, with his short…
@johnN It depends on each persons situation. I am 15 years into retirement. Our investment income currently contributes 25% to 30% to our annual household cash flow. But we can get by comfortably -- with a more modest lifestyle -- if that % drop…
I made several trades yesterday within the portion of my portfolio set aside for that purpose. For example, my investment in PDI doubled yesterday while it was once again selling at a discount (I wonder if that has changed today). No new cash is c…
This from Bloomberg:
A crisis in credit markets deepened on Sunday as a cluster of funds that own mortgage bonds sought to sell billions in assets to meet investor redemptions, sparking pleas for government intervention.
The sales included at least…
IOFIX has a history of large one day movements in the share price...mostly to the upside but there was at least one to the downside (in Nov. 2018 if I recall correctly). @sma3 discussed the difficulty of pricing their thinly traded holdings on a da…
IOFIX was only at a little over 2% of my portfolio when the storm hit, so its not a major hit for me. I feel for those who were more concentrated in it. I am a chicken little when it comes to concentrating my portfolio into any one "specialty" hol…
On the bright side, the loss in IOFIX brought the portfolio % in my Bond Pot down to its goal % without me needing to do any rebalancing. That is very unusual in a bear market situation. So, there is always a silver lining! I agree with Charles ab…
Here are a couple of articles that bear on this topic.
The first suggests a trillion dollars may prove to be just a drop in the bucket compared to what may eventually be needed:
But many analysts believe the current stimulus figure is based on an u…
Note: I was writing this when Charles posted his comment and didn't read his comment until mine was posted.
Ouch! It looks like IOFIX may have just moved ahead of PONAX to claim the lead in the race for worst YTD performance in my Bond Pot. Rem…
Oh.
Well.
My snarky answer is that it seems to be big enough to raise yields on the ten year bonds.
this is interesting to me because it provides a sense for how much ammunition the federal government may wind up using.
I can see 10%. It's a…
Oh.
Well.
My snarky answer is that it seems to be big enough to raise yields on the ten year bonds.
this is interesting to me because it provides a sense for how much ammunition the federal government may wind up using.
@Old_Joe You certainly are at one of the epicenters of the shelter in place movement. I remember commuting across the Bay Bridge on a daily basis 50 years ago. It was always busy even back then.....
Thanks for the heads up. I owned ARTKX for several years....I don't remember what prompted me sell it but recall regretting the decision more than once. Its down 32% YTD. Reestablishing a position while its still down may make sense.....A quick …
My sense is the next few weeks will inform us about how widespread and long lasting this crisis will turn out to be. It was encouraging to finally see Trump treat the crisis seriously during his press conference. If the Federal government is able …
@crash Kaneohe sounds much better than Honolulu to me. Molokai is very rural with a population of under 8000 and only about an average of about 200 tourists here per day. There is a daily ferry between Molokai and Maui ( molokaiferry.com/ ). …
@davfor Oahu? You're just in time for the flooding from the Kona Low. 4:30 p.m. and finally some sunshine here on the Windward side.
Molokai. East end condo. There has been a Flash Flood alert for the past 24 hours or so but the weather has be…
Just dumb in my opinion. Isn't that pretty much the extent of their ammo?
The Fed has made it clear they will pull out all the stops to keep the expansion going (or alternatively to try to minimize the depth of a recession). Their metrics are not o…
