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davfor
Thanks. She is well now and back to her daily volunteering.....
@Crash FWIW. These are just a few random thoughts....
It doesn't surprise me that many bond funds took a hit this week. Maybe the bond market is in an "early stage" and rather dysfunctional way saying the bottom is approaching on interest rates …
Yes. Lenders are overwhelmed with refi requests. They lack adequate staff to deal with it. So, supply and demand considerations are causing rates to increase...at least for the time being.
That was interesting reading. The part about sellers raising cash by selling treasuries and thereby causing yields to increase mirrors an explanation in another article I read earlier today.
It will probably be useful to keep an eye on China to help get a sense for how deep and lasting this downturn will prove to be. I read a report this morning indicating some of the factories in their hardest impacted regions are already starting to …
@Simon It depends on how you look at it. It was a significant (historic) event for that indicator of stock market health. Time will tell if other indicators follow suit or not.
@catch22 The behavior of the treasury market does seem strange. Perhaps its because that market is beginning to price in the impact of a BIG fiscal stimulus package.
Thanks for the two posts. Rollins comment seem reasonable. Perhaps the market will seesaw somewhat lower over the next few weeks until clarity emerges concerning how communicable the coronavirus bug is, whether its spread will subside during the w…
No particular investment advice for this particular moment. But I am still driving a gasoline fueled car, heating a house with natural gas, riding on airplanes for longer trips, and buying numerous items made with petroleum products. It seems like…
@MikeM The caption got left off but reads "Average and Median Net Worth by Age Range, 2016. (Includes primary home equity.)" A search for SCF data turned up this info: "The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) is normally a triennial cross-sectional …
@Starchild That is part of what I have been wondering about. A quick google search suggested about 30% of trading volume may be done by individual investors. Another search indicated 15% of the population was 65+ in 2015 with that percent expecte…
Thanks again to @expatsp for his late 2018 post about PDI. It alerted me to its behavior at that time and allowed me to implement my simple minded approach to it and reestablish a position at a slight discount on Christmas eve that year. I have no…
At least a partial answer to the question I posed to @Mark has occurred to me. It makes sense that seniors who have invested in stocks primarily for the dividends they offer (and have not seriously considered their volatility) may cash out when the…
@Mark said: Another disrupter might be the cashing out of stock holdings by the boomer generation as they seek to preserve what they hold.
@Mark There appears to be a lack of good investment alternatives. I wonder where those boomers will invest…
@Crash Another saying is "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others" . And, maybe this year turn out to be the right time for a little old fashioned "normalcy"....
https://youtube.com/watch?v=qURAnrk30ng
This commentator's observation has a cleverly phrased ring of truth to it....
On Tuesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a record low, and Joe Biden surged in the Democratic presidential race. The two may be indirectly…
Yes. 0.00% no longer seems impossible to me! Its interesting to click on the link and then to click on Max. It takes you back as far as 4/1/1962 and clearly shows the history being made daily by these low rates.....Something unprecedented appear…
Here is a chart that compares the largest one week S&P 500 declines. The recent decline was impressive based on that metric too:
Here is a link to the related Rekentahler Report article:
https://morningstar.com/articles/969893/the-coronavir…
@Crash So that's what that line says! I listened to that song dozens (hundreds?) of times back in the day -- I lived in San Francisco and Berkeley for a couple of years during that era -- but never quite heard it clearly. By the way, your link h…
@Puddnhead Eisenhower had a heart attack on 9/24/55. (I was a military brat living near Washington D.C. at that time and vaguely remember that happening.) On Monday 9/26/55 the market dropped 6.5%. My assumption is it dropped far enough further …
Fast forward 3 days. Records lows are definitely made to be broken! It looks like the 10 year rate dropped to about 1.108% at 3:02 PM this afternoon. At this rate we'll hit 1% on Monday?!
https://marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countr…
@PRESSmUP Here are my hunches. As far as REITS go, I can think of a couple of possible connections. First, the mall, hotel, and shopping center REITS will be significantly impacted if people meaningfully reduce their use of public spaces over an …
I opened a small position in MAIN earlier this morning. But mostly I am just watching. A new pot of cash will hit my brokerage account in a few days. I may do a little more nibbling then depending on how the markets behave.....currently I expect …
This is just to follow up on my pandemic comment above. Today I noticed the NYT recently ran an article about coronavirus as it relates to current stock market valuations. (The next one to two months should reportedly provide us a good indication …
@WABAC I suspect there a significant chance that "some day" PE ratios will drop that low again. Something akin to the Nifty Fifty route for that happening is just a possibility I look out for. And, zero cost trading reasonably makes it somewhat …
@Old_Skeet Your comment about reducing your stock percentage to accommodate your overweight in high yield bond funds sounds familiar to me. I finally settled on accounting for that issue by including all but very short duration high yield and EM b…
@Old_Skeet I turn 70 this month and am about 15 years into retirement having taken advantage of a downsizing "early out" opportunity in 2005. My stock weighting has varied between about 40% and 60% during that time.
My portfolio percentages will…
Thanks for these comments. I anticipate receiving repayment in full of an outstanding real estate secured loan (about 30% LTV) within about 30 days. I have allowed the % of stock holdings in my primary investment account to drift up in anticipatio…
@TheShadow Thanks for the heads up about this. I currently hold BGSAX as my global tech fund (38% non-US equity) and am pleased with its recent performance. Buts it good to know PRGTX will be available again. (They are both currently NTF funds a…
@Mark My thinking involves income but also sometimes involves the potential for continued capital gains in our low interest rate environment. My nibbles included a little SPG. It is my only REIT purchase from last year that is currently in the re…
@FD1000 This particular article was not "doom and gloom" from my perspective. Rather, I found it to be helpful in that it was pointing out a potential source for a short term market pullback. Also, I found its discussion of a potential long term …
@bee I wonder if using the image button at the top of the Discussion or Comment box as a way to display the image associated with the link will work with Jing. Have you tried that?
@Simon My "Cash Pot" for 2020 is set at 10% of my primary portfolio. ZEOIX is 1/2 of that. The rest is spread among SEMRX, SHV, and JPST. M* puts the most recent SHV annual return at 2.32%. We will see what 2020 brings....
Somewhat in that wheelhouse, I bought some KYN (a MLP/Midstream CEF) at the start of the month. Its up about 13% through today's close, so it seems as though at least a short term bottom has been established....hopefully more!
I agree with @msf on this....10 year returns don't currently tell the whole story given there has been no major market correction during that time (unless you believe the central banks have permanently eliminated those inconvenient market correction…
This article was worth reading. His comments about interest rates and inflation made sense. But the comment that most impressed me was....
I love predicting 50%. You can't be wrong!
