Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @Charles: Hi Charles, thanks but I am not an investor and would never sit through a 50% drawdown. I use a percentage stop from entry and trail that stop if the trade moves in my favor.
Pity the poor fools like me who have been primarily trading 100% bond funds since December 16, 2008 trying to make the transition back to stocks i.e. how late to the party are we. I now have two mid cap blend funds - HFMDX and WSBEX, one small blen…
Reply to @hank: >>> Following the revelations of frequent trading in the late 90s - often by organized groups or insiders (like Richard Strong), fund companies were hit by a flood of lawsuits by folk claiming some of their investment in t…
Reply to @andrei: andrei, at Scottrade on their fee funds they also hit you with an additional $17 (total $34) if you exit within 90 days. Unless a fee fund is very compelling ala say a MSCFX, I avoid them like the plague at Scottrade.
Reply to @prinx: Reply to @prinx: Fidelity is the last place you want to be if you are actively trading mutual funds. It's been several years and someone can correct me on this, but if you trade in and out within 60 days you get hit with a $75 fee…
Reply to @hank: >>> I'd also guess both of us could afford to ride our that 15 or so life expectancy in cash - even at today's rates. But, what fun would that be?
Hank, not to be the Grim Reaper here, but you have 15.77 years left. Of course I know nothing about your health or genes so let's hope you are an outlier and live to be 100.
http://life-span.findthedata.org/d/d/67
I am right behind you and will b…
I've been in this battle in other forums since like forever so why not here. The charts of the junk bond ETFs ala HYG or JNK do not tell the real story because they are not total return charts and omit the most important ingredient of the junk bond…
Reply to @bee: Bee, initially, I was being a bit facetious in all my " run for the bondland exits" posts and trying to sarcastically mimic all the talking heads who were so in unison about how bonds were about to crash. Normally when the talking h…
Reply to @bee: bee, maybe Ted was just being prescient and giving catch a heads up.
Below are January's returns from Morningstar.
Fixed-Income Funds
High Yield Bond 1.31
Bank Loan 1.06
Nontraditional Bond 0.74
Multisector Bond 0.66
Emerging…
Reply to @fundalarm: Well, it's hardly like 85% in PONDX is much of a reduction. It's more like PONDX's behavior has been out of its most recent norm. So I scale back a tad. SMVLX is not a small cap fund and hopefully that is where I can ramp u…
Reply to @Flack: Had I been into "statistical" analysis and even more so had I been a disciple of Bogle, my retirement nest egg would be but a fraction of its present value.
As is often said on this board, it's different strokes for different fol…
Yes, PONDX aka PIMIX is back to all time highs. Over 40% is in foreign and emerging markets bonds and not a good day there and a flat day for non agency RMBS. I will never understand how Ivascyn does it and with little to no drawdown along the way.
Reply to @scott: Scott, because of differences in our age, time in the markets, trading vs. investing, holding periods, diversification vs. concentration, etc., I often find myself at odds with you. (I hate risk parity funds) But I must say, every…
So far at least another ugly day for PDI. And it is looking like another rare down day for PONDX based on RMBS and foreign and emerging markets bonds. But then it has always been a difficult fund to figure out on a day by day basis.
I can tell you exactly why catch is in an investment funk and it's the same reason I am in an investment funk. We are sitting idly by in bond funds which since the beginning of the year are getting trounced by equity funds. And today is another ba…
Reply to @fundalarm: I am not a volume guy but to those that are, today's volume on the price decline have to be a bit concerned. Today is already the second heaviest volume since inception for PDI and by the close may well be the heaviest.
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1510599.htm
A graphic of insider activity at PDI. I haven't checked recently but at one time PDI and PIMIX aka PONDX were different animals in that PDI was almost exclusively RMBS and with more leverage. Al…
I don't believe the link below was posted about Ray Dalio, Bridgewater, and risk parity funds. A good read. The returns of risk parity funds leave me a bit cold but AQR has a new one out (QRHIX) that seems to have a bit of steam. Available for $…
Reply to @andrei: Andrei, I looked long and hard at PDI but I simply have a bias against exchange traded/closed end funds that I can't overcome. It's been a super performer. Last I checked it was a different animal than PONDX in that it was almos…
Reply to @David_Snowball: David, I am a huge Morningstar fan, primarily their performance rankings. But when it comes to portfolio holdings and breakdowns I always go direct to the fund site. Then again, with 95% of my liquid net worth in PONDX, …
Reply to @David_Snowball: >>>>But PIMCO Income (PIMIX) is a domestic bond fund - 83% US and maybe 3% emerging markets - so it's not terribly surprising that it would have a different profile, especially in the short term.
Reply to @TNK: Have you looked at MWCRX? I love it and been in it but was a bit of a plodder (compared to PONDX) to me, albeit a continual upward plod. Not sure about adding MWHYX as you already are covered there with your STHTX. Not sure how l…
There's a huge difference in performance and yield between agency and non agency RMBS. Gundlach has both. What I can't figure out is how poor, really poor, his performance has been over the past year and YTD when compared to other funds that have…
MJG, nice post and links. Funny how we are infected by our biases (both you and me) I come to a completely different conclusion than you on persistency of trend/return by looking at the top four and bottom four in the Callan link.
Edit: I wou…
catch, not that into small caps, just that of the limited equity funds at PIMCO, PCKDX looked best for now. I just wanted a foot into the equity fund door. I can increase pretty fast if necessary. On the other hand, don't want to leave PONDX unt…
These bears who have no conception of the compounding of reinvested dividends and its importance in wealth creation for long term holders are pretty worthless in my opinion. Her math on the S&P is all wrong because she completely neglects divid…
Reply to @AndyJ: S&P up 5% in 2013? It's already up 3.28%. Is there a fund manager out there who does as much public predicting and forecasting as Gundlach?
Amother big day for non agency MBS and another big day for PONDX up .32%. ANGIX always prices late so can only imagine how that performed. They say ("They" being the experts) that non agency MBS are a very crowded trade. But they said that goin…
Reply to @fundalarm: December 16, 2008 at around 2:15 EST is a day and time that I will always remember till my last breath. It was the loudest risk-on bond bell I ever heard rung in my 47 years of trading and I acted accordingly. And without an…
A great link by Ted that everyone should read. It reinforces something I have been pounding the table about here, there, and everywhere for years and that is on a risk return basis, junk bonds clobber stocks. Over the past 20 to 30 years you have …
Reply to @hank: Where oh where did I infer Gundlach was a "self proclaimed" expert"??? The self proclaimed experts are all the talking heads who have been endlessly pontificating about a bond debacle for the past couple years. Yes, I too think …
Reply to @MaxBialystock: Yes, I am a tad worried about the punk performance of emerging markets bonds. As for DLFNX, I am no fan of its manager. He has been barking about non agengy debt for a long time and has a lot in his funds. Yet when I loo…
Reply to @hank: >>What makes you believe they were praiseworthy on the risk-reward spectrum? In other words, how do you know they were achieved with relatively little risk?
I believe they paid their monthly dividend today. They normally pay the last business day of the month. But last December they paid the second to last business day of the month and it looks like they did the same this December.
Reply to @hank: Since everyone on this board seems to have different goals, time frames, and risk tolerances, I am not into recommendations. PONDX is severely overbought. But it has been that way much of 2012. I always have my finger firmly plan…
