Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I have dialed my asset allocaton back to a 50/50 asset allocation currently holding 20% in cash, 30% in income funds, 35% in growth & income funds and 15% in growth funds. I am thinking the market for 2016 will be much like that of 2015 and wit…
Hi @Bitzer,
Thanks again for making comment.
I feel my active management has indeed been worth while. Let me explain. Take a million dollar portfolio and the difference of my ten year annualized return of 6.9% vs. my buddies ten year return of 5…
Hi @Dex,
Thank you for your questions.
I am retired. Catching pension income, social security income and drawing on investment income when needed. In addition, being a former corporate credit manager, I do some consulting work form time-to-time.…
Hi @Bitzer and @JoJo26,
Thank you for your comments and questions.
The below link will, perhaps, provide the details you seek.
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/22938/my-engineer-buddy-is-now-crowing-but-we-both-have-smiles#lat…
Hi @VintageFreak,
My technical monitoring system (SWAG) is showing that the S&P 500 Index is currently trading within its price envelope with a peaking taking place somewhere around the 2100 mark. And, yes it can move above this mark between n…
Hello everyone the P/E Ratio numbers for the S&P 500 Index, as reported in the WSJ, reflect that as reported earnings (TTM) are running at about 23 while forward estimates are at about 17. Folks, this amounts to a huge spread with earnings esti…
As mostly a long term investor I have found it is as important as when I buy as much as when I sell for good gains. In today's market climate I am building cash over buying or adding to existing positions in what I consider to be a peaking and over…
Hi @Lawlar and others,
I own a small position in CTFAX and I am thinking of plowing most all of my capital gains distributions received this year into this fund thus making it my special investment (spiff) fund. This fund will automatically do wha…
Hi @TPS Transfer,
Yes, energy is currrently taking it on the chin and would be a contrarian move. I will not start to change much of anything until I begin to see some positive upward movement in the markets. Fourth Quarter 2015 reporting will, I …
I'm thinking as reported earnings are going to increase on a TTM basis by about six to eight percent over the current year from about the ($96.00 range) to about the ($104.00 range) for 2016. According to S&P reported earnings for the S&P 5…
I have not been a premium subscriber for many years but I did find the top holding detail useful (that is the top holdings and how much was held by each fund as slick mentioned) along with duration information on fixed income. The information could…
As of market close (12/03/2015) Old_Skeet is down according to M* portfolio manager by about 1.5%. In comparison, the Lipper Balanced Index is about even for the year. I have a good number of funds in the Growth & Income and Growth Areas of my…
I'm thinking that the market, in general, is currently too richely priced, for me, to be adding to long term positions. If anything, open special investment positions by buying the dips and selling the rips ... and, then repeat again. Should P/E R…
I like reading articles that confirm my thinking. Currently, I'd rather be cash heavy rather than equity heavy due to stocks being currently well overbought by my thinking. In addition, I am light in fixed income due to anticipated rising interest…
Alger Spectra (SPECX) is one of four funds held in Old_Skeet's large/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio. I have held it for a good number of years and it accounts for about 40% of its sleeve. The other funds held are AGTHX, IA…
I received my first yearend mutual fund capital gain distribution this week from Thornburg Strategic Income (TSIAX) in the amount of 2.74 cents per share with a payout date of 11/19/2015. I anticipate receiving about a 3% capital gain distribution …
This is one of several reasons why Old_Skeet does not short individual stocks. However, in the past, I have used the etf SH to short the S&P 500 Index because it is non leveraged.
Interesting ...
I took the anticipated returns as noted in the article for bonds at 3% and stocks at 6% and I ran a forecast of what my portfolio would be expected to return based upon it's current asset allocation. It bubbled close to 4%. Accord…
Hi @VintageFreak,
In checking the sites, it seems cash has dropped, in the pecking order, to the number eight position while cash is the current call with the Moose.
Currently, cash is a little more than twenty percent of my portfolio's asset allo…
Hi @Ted,
From my perspective there was a lot offered up by Alan Gayle on his thoughts about positioning. Most definately worth the time I spent listening.
Hearing what he was saying and following along with my most Instant Xary report of my portf…
Hi @Ted and others,
Ted, it is nice to see you posting again; and, with this, I hope you are feeling better. I can assure you that you were indeed missed.
I have mixed feelings about your price target for the 500 Index (2059 X 6.7%=2200). Curren…
Hi @bee and others,
I have a few sources that I frequently use concerning P/E Ratios.
One being ...
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
And, another being ...
http://www.advisorperspectives.c…
Hi @VintageFreak and others,
I'm thinking, following your thinking and question of not knowing exactly where in the value spectrum the next hot spot will be? Well, I am thinking of picking three low p/e funds to play this theme and let the fund man…
For the past 30 days the three best performing categories, according to Morningstar, are Large Cap Growth followed by Large Cap Blend with Large Cap Value coming in third. So it seems there has been a performance rotation to the large cap categorie…
Hi @VintageFreak,
Wondering why not Scottrade?
I have been thinking of moving my spiff (special investment positions) business to them.
Thanks.
Old_Skeet
Hi @Ted,
You are most welcome; and, I hope things go well for you in the coming weeks.
As you might have been lurking in the background, and no doubt know, there is just no replacing the linkster.
So here is to you getting well soon.
Your bud,
O…
I decided to continue this posting a while longer with Ted's illness which has, no doubt, taken him away from the board. Hopefully, he will be back soon. I wish him a speedy recovery ... So, get well soon, Ted ... and, hurry on back, there is just…
Hi@Derf,
I Agree things work until they don't. My vaccum cleaner quit on me yesterday ... Got to go get a new one this AM.
With the fall spiff that I reference in the above post ... It is form 2014 not 2015. I am thinking of not making a special…
Hi all,
I think this is a time to reflect about all Ted has done for the many readers and posters at fundalarm and our current MFO site. I somehow feel Ted needs all the postitive rembermances that can be mustered at this time sent his way through…
Hi @ bee,
Sorry I missed your flag or I would have commented earlier in the thread. It is interesting to read how others follow and manage their portfolio(s). I think what is important is that each that has commented has a system that works well …
Hybrid (asset allocation) funds make up between thirty five and forty percent of my overall portfolio which currently consist of ten investment plus two cash management sleeves; has an overall asset allocation of about 25% cash, 20% bonds, 50% equit…
The Thread has now been updated for weekend reading and review. If you have found value in the links provided please bookmark them for future reference as this will be the last update made to the thread.
Linked below is Jeffrey Saut's weekly commentary on the market. I enjoy reading it from time-to-time and usually find good value in it. I hope you will as well ... and, it might even add some good meaning to this thread. I wonder if he perhaps mi…
@PRESSmUP
No, not making it up for sure.
The link below will provide some information on the oscillator and how it is used by some traders and the more skilled investor.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mcclellanoscillator.asp
Hi @Dex,
In the cash area of my portfolio, which includes money held in currency and on deposit at two banks, I currently have enough cash to live off of for more than three years at my current spending rate should all other forms of income I recei…
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is now at an overbought reading only seen once every few years. Seems we are approaching historic extremes. Scroll down, in the below link, to find the McClellan Oscillator.
https://www.stocktrader.com/2015/10/08/mar…
