Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi guys, I'm not liking what I seeing in checking the naked short volumes for the S&P 500 Index for the past rolling week. About 62% of the total trading volume has been by the naked shorts. With this, I'd say good caution is now warranted. A…
Hi @davidrmoran. A bond fund that I recently opened a position in to expand my income sleeve is JGIAX, J P Morgan Income A. You might wish to take a look at it. A bond fund that I have under review and study is JMUAX. The reason I went with JGIA…
@MikeW, For now I'm staying overweight equities by +5% with the overweight being mostly held in equity dividend funds which are a part of the growth & income area of my portfolio. Now being overweight equity (at the max allowed within my asset …
@Derf, Nope. I have held the position for more than 30 days. And, these are C shares. However, I'll pay a 1% commission on shares sold held less than 1 year. Like I wrote, I'll net 3% from this trade.
Now that I've made a 3% net profit in my most recent spiff position, (which I opened on August 6th) as of market close September 6th, I plan to cut it loose on Monday as long as the market holds.
September 6th Update
As of September 6th market close Old_Skeet's market barometer, with a reading of 142, indicates that the S&P 500 Index is presently overvalued. With this, I plan to close out my most recent spiff position, that I opened on…
Of the funds mentioned in the article Old_Skeet owns in my growth and income area ANCFX, CWGIX & DWGAX. In the growth area I own AGTHX, AMCPX, ANWPX, NEWFX & SMCWX. Not mentioned in the article I own ABALX, AMECX & CAIBX which are held…
Oh ... Where is Jeffrey Saut? Seems, Raymond James retired him! Wonder what his thoughts are?
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/09/strategist-the-lows-are-in-for-the-us-market.html
For now ... I'm going to roll with Saut's thinking.
Old_Skeet
@Junkster,
I gave my copy of your book to my son about a year, or so, ago. Thank you for the amazon link because I ordered another copy (today) to replace the one I gave away.
Old_Skeet
Hi @larryB, For my CD ladder which has an average maturity of one year (with maturities ranging from three months up to two years) is found in my cash sleeve since the cd's I own are FDIC insured and I consider them to be a form of a time deposit. …
Hi rforno,
I'm not sure the comment you are referencing was made by J P Morgan. But, it could have been.
In doing a look back in my post here is what I came up with on another J P Morgan post that I made back on February 7th. It is titled ... "B…
J P Morgan says now is the time to add risk back into your portfolio and buy stocks. You can read more about this in the below linked article.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-02/jpmorgan-says-it-s-finally-time-to-buy-stocks-despite…
Hi again @johnN, You might find this recent post of mine of good interest. I have linked it below for your reading enjoyment. It is titled ... "August in Review and September's Outlook!"
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/5250…
Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index currently rates the Index a hold as we enter September with a reading of 148 which falls in the fair value range on the barometer's scale. Currently, I'm invested within the allowable…
Charles Lynn Bolin wrote an article that was featured in this months commentary titled "Adjusting Portfolios for the Business Cycle." I found it to be a good read. And, I have linked it below for your easy access.
https://www.mutualfundobserver…
Hi @johnN: Thank you for your question.
My asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity allows for some tweaks, from time to time, based upon my read on the markets. My threshold rebalance is + (or -) 2% from the above "neutral" asset…
Hi @Derf,
Back in the 4th quarter of 18, I begin to reconfigure my portfolio going to my new asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. This required me to reduce my equity allocation by 10% and raise cash and my income areas by 5% …
Hi guys: From my perspective most income type securities are at premiums due to investor's strong demand for yield. The preferred securities fund that I track is CPXAX and it is now selling at it's 52 week high. With this, I am not a player on it…
@Derf, Yes, cash becomes a drag during the updraft; but, helps during a downdraft. For me, the income area generates enough income to meet my needs. With this, I have dialed my risk level downward during the past five years, or so. Thinking ... W…
Years back when I was in the accumulation phase of investing I rolled with equity allocations, at times, upwards towards the 60% to 70% range along with holding about 10% in cash so when stock market pullbacks came I had some cash that I could put t…
Hi MikeM, Thanks for making comment. Googling ... Is a tomato a fruit or vegtable? Below is what came up with.
Is a Tomato a Fruit or a Vegetable? The age-old question actually has an answer—it's both! Tomatoes are fruits that are considered vege…
Hi @Old_Joe: Yep, your right about tomatoes ... it's friut/vegtable ... thus it is a hybrid much like VWINX is a hybrid income fund while GVDSX and SVAAX are mostly all equity income funds with GVDSX having a global equity perspective while SVAAX is…
Hi sma3: Not taking issue with your comment. Though, I'm finding that GVDSX's inception date being 1/30/2017. So not sure where you came up with a five year retrun for it. Also, VWINX is a hybrid fund consisting mostly of stocks and bonds along …
@Soupkitchen, I appreciate where you are coming from on IVFIX concerning making money. It consist of mostly foreign holdings and over the past "recent" years foreign stocks have not done as well as domestics. For me, I've been in SVAAX for more th…
Below is a link that has list of convertible securities funds. I own FISCX which currently has limited access.
https://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/convertibles/$FOCA$CV.aspx
FISCX is one of Old_Skeet's long time holdings which accounts for about an eight percent position within my hybrid income sleeve. However, this fund has limited access and is closed to most new investors. With this, shouldn't the wordsmiths write …
I'm thinking ... Makes me wonder? ... Who would issue a negative yielding bond in the first place? Perhaps, the government? In this way, there is little to no interest expense. Now, Who would buy this? Perhaps, the government? Seems, to me, in …
PONAX is one of eight holdings found in the income sleeve of my portfolio. I have no plans to sell this fund but plan to add to it on continued weakness. Seems, some of the best funds, from time to time, falter. This is one of my main reasons tha…
Hi Derf, The subject account goes back many, many years and was set up to receive asset transfers that my grandparents and parents made to me many years ago. Due to the needed historical and cost basis records that are contained in its broker book…
@rforno: Thank you for your question about why I choose mutual funds with higher fees that also have 12b1 fees associated with them.
"@Skeet, out of curiosity, why do you use VADCX (1.21 ER?) vs something like RSP (.20), for an equal-wt SPX fund? …
Anybody bought or sold the past week, or so?
My last buy was on, or about, August 6th when I established my first buy step in a spiff (VADCX). Thus far, the market has found some footing and has not continued to pull back as I first thought it …
Not bailing nor trimming. Rocking along with my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity. Looking for my next spiff buy step to appear somewhere around the 2750 range for the S&P 500 Index.
Old_Skeet plans to continue to hold my position in PONAX and perhaps buy more on weakness. It is one of eight funds that I currently hold in my income sleeve.
Hi guys & dolls, Bonds being called away is one of the reasons Old_Skeet went to bond mutual funds only becasuse I simply got tired of bonds being called away from me. Seemed as though I'd buy another one and it would get call away after a coup…
@edmond: Nice work. I enjoyed reading your analysis. Please keep posting your thoughts. In converting Old_Skeet's market barometer to score AGG (bonds) this can be done; but, instead of using the earnings feed which I use for stocks I used a yiel…
Hi guys,
With the S&P 500 Index closing today at 2919 Old_Skeet's market barometer reflected a reading of 157 indicating that the Index is currently undervalued by the metrics of the barometer. Should the Index pullback to the 2750 range Old_S…
Linked below is an article about J P Morgan's thinking. It is titled "Hold on Tight and Buy This Market Dip."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/08/jp-morgans-top-stock-market-analysts-say-hold-on-tight-and-buy-this-market-dip.html
As of market close 8/8 Old_Skeet's market barometer reflects that the S&P 500 Index is now at fair value with a reading of 153. And, my siff position is in the money.
