Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
Nothing really new here. It is simply Dr. Doom and Gloom being exactly that.
The article is a long, but still incomplete list, of what could go wrong in the world economy. It is incomplete in several ways because it is without an estima…
Hi msf,
Thank you for sharing your in-depth knowledge of how mutual funds conduct their operations. Your explanations are clear, concise, and even fun reading. Good stuff!
Best Wishes
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your participation and question.
A likely explanation for the unimpressive performance of actively managed domestic large cap funds is that a high percentage of their holdings tend to duplicate the Index that matches their styl…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the SPIVA reminder. It's a terrific service that deserves more investor attention.
These guys have been doing this mind numbing, numbers crunching job for a good many years now, I agree with your observation that the output is…
Hi VintageFreak,
Thanks so much for your informative and direct comments. Your comments leave little uncertainty about your position on the matter. That.'s goodness.
I have read several articles from the Pension Partners organization. In genera…
Hi Old Joe,
Thanks for reading my post and for replying.
I am not an expert on the Laffer curve. I know less about tax dynamics than about the equity marketplace, which translates into not very much whatsoever.
The Laffer curve is just a simple …
Hi Guys,
Ted made a terrific find here. The Link talks about the distinction between a prediction and a probability in a clear, understandable manner. Understanding that distinction should make us better investors.
Ted's referenced article also…
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your participation.
Although I was never a true politician, during the late stages of my career I was frequently tasked to prepare replies to government Requests For Proposals. Even when I disagreed with the work statements, I…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for your comments.
Simplification serves as a terrific guiding principle, but it definitely has its limits. As Albert Einstein said: "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Einstein's qualifier that…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for a very informative discussion with a wide range of opinions well represented and well defended. I learned much.
Forecasting is dangerous business. Forecasting follies is well documented, especially when the forecast is …
Hi BrianW,
Indeed there is more to investing than the title of the referenced article suggests. I suspect the author did not plan to be all inclusive in his brief presentation. He addressed one aspect of the investment process.
It all begins wit…
Hi Guys,
All the tools discussed here are variations of market timing schemes. As the posts suggest, there are an endless number count of these techniques, some of which are highly sophisticated.
I don't participate in this investment ritual. Fo…
Hi Guys,
I completely agree with Old Joe that " life will inevitably throw you a curve ball or some of your assumptions will prove to be untrue."
Indeed curve balls happen. One advantage of using Monte Carlo tools is that they improve the odds of…
Hi Guys,
As usual, Ben Carlson writes an information heavy column that is useful. In this instance he addresses saving rates to build a retirement nest egg. There is much uncertainty here given the unpredictable vicissitudes of market returns.
T…
Hi BenWP,
Congratulations! You and your wife are in a very advantaged financial position. I'm sure it was earned through hard work and persistent savings. Given your stated concern over a $170,000. threshold trigger point, I assume your annual i…
Hi Guys,
The tidal wave of mutual fund money storming away from actively managed funds and towards passively managed products certainly is a cause for concern among the actively management contingent.
So is the fact that fund fees are being reduce…
Hi LewisBraham,
Initially I did get access to your submittal and did fully read it. As I said in my original post on this topic, I thought it "is very nice. It is well researched...". And I meant it.
Based on your response to my post, I tried u…
Hi LewsBraham,
You are making a distinction without much of a meaningful difference.
Above a rather modest threshold IQ score, higher IQs only contribute minor advantages to market investors. Those advantages center more on diversification and wi…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article by Lewis Braham is very nice. It is well researched and deals with protecting a portfolio against bad investment decisions. Financial gurus often remark that the best long term investor returns come not from makin…
Hi Again LewisBraham,
Indeed I did use "greedy, lazy bastards" to capture attention. Apparently it worked!
It does overstate my true feelings about many of life's duties. I proudly served in the military, and did so without any feelings of regre…
Hi LewisBraham,
We are pretty much on the same page in the book of primary investment motivations.. I surely agree that speculation, rather than prudent investing to generate a needed product, is now a dominant part of Wall Street actions. That's…
Hi Guys,
It's an American tradition to poke fun at many of our most treasured and useful institutions. Certainly criticizing and even challenging the need for Wall Street and the Wall Street Stock Exchange have been the easy targets of those rando…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Many thanks for the link to this excellent Gary Belsky piece. He is great at summary articles that contain as much useful information as many books do.
Best Wishes
Hi Catch22,
Sorry to learn that you will be boycotting my posts because of my opening salutation. I've used it forever, my wife of 56 years has used it forever when communicating with her female friends, and I have used it in over 300 posts that I…
Hi Catch22,
I definitely am low on coffee this morning so it's especially unlikely that I'll accurately reproduce my thought process when I wrote the line you referenced. But I will give it an honest shot.
I didn't do any research on this subject…
Hi Guys,
This chart that shows the increase in college degrees as a function of time is deceptive. It doesn't address some major problems in our educational system.
It is not surprising that our educational years have increased thus leading to mo…
Hi Guys,
Market timing is simply impossible. At least that's the general conclusion currently preached by the academic and many professional market wizards.
The truth is likely to be somewhere in the imperfect region rather than at the impossible…
Hi Guys,
I too practiced the same drill in the East coast public school classrooms of New Jersey in the 1940s. It appears to have been a common exercise in both time and space.
I am a little familiar with the works of Gordon Lightfoot, but I woul…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thanks for the reference that describes the biennial adjustments made to the Doomsday Clock. I was not familiar with the adjustment schedule. I am surprised by its infrequent and time scheduling. It would be a more meaningful and…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thanks for your prompt reply.
You completely misinterpret my purpose in mentioning my military experience. In the early 1960s we were within a minor accident of actually going to,war, yet the Doomsday Clock was at a relatively hig…
Hi LewisBraham,
This type of post is blatant fear-mongering.
The clock is a clever selling idea that it is nothing more than a device designed to attract attention. It is nothing like a precise analysis that is summarized into a time projection. …
Hi Guys,
The active vs. passive debate will never end. Mostly because a case for either side of that argument can be made depending on the timeframe being measured. As a generic rule I subscribe to the belief that active investing is indeed a Los…
Hi Ted,
Thanks very much for this excellent Vanguard study reference. It is a nice supplement to the Credit Suisse study that I referenced earlier. A diversity of perspective is always useful to provide a welcomed.balance.
The Vanguard work look…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thanks for reading and responding to my post.
I couldn't agree more that quotes and more importantly credit attributions are often misinformed. They too frequently go to the more famous member of any team or group.
Before retirin…
Hi VintageFreak,
Thank you for reading and replying to the article I referenced.
Someone has published an article showing compound losses. It.'s the same article with exactly the same percentage loss and same timeframe as the positive side of com…
Hi VintageFreak,
Contrary to your assessment, indeed I can predict a long term positive market return because that is exactly what the market has rewarded its investors historically. That's my assessment. Unless there is a drastic disruption in o…
Hi Vintage Freak,
You are being much too hard on yourself. Not fully understanding or being able to explain a market result is more the rule than the exception. We often invent an explanation that is more fantasy than fact that justifies some bad…
Hi Guys,
Perma-Bears and Perma-Bulls have always existed especially if minor exceptions are allowed in the definition of these groups.
Even historic Perma-Bears such as Joe Granville and Howard Ruff occasionally admitted a short positive market p…
Hi Guys,
Congratulations on terrific contributions that expanded the topic in a very positive direction. I never anticipated that your replies would move the discussion in the risk and uncertainty arena. It is a very worthwhile subject matter tha…
Hi Crash,
Nice recall! The Zurich Axioms are indeed an excellent set of investment rules. Your reference Links to the book. Here is another Link that summarizes the 12 rules:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/joseph-dancy/2012/01/26/th…
