Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
I'm surprised and disappointed by your harsh assessment of Marty Bannon. Yes, he was not a wise investor by his failure to diversify. Yes, he panicked. But that doesn't make him a loser. We all make poor investment decisions. I have m…
Hi LewisBraham,
Your closing comment precisely put the hammer on the nail: " ...., the rehab experience would be completely different from what it might be for the average person. To me it seems like a high risk activity but potentially a highly r…
HI Guys,
The heading to this post is misleading. The referenced article does not address the Why investors expect to reach their goals, but What they will do during retirement. The Why could be useful to others whereas the What belongs in the who…
Hi Guys,
A study based on 1 year of performance results that was completed with a poorly documented procedure is a recipe for a faulty study. Here is a Link to a Morningstar study that has a lot more meat to it.
https://corporate1.morningstar.com…
Hi VintageFreak,
I agree that the referenced chart does NOT demonstrate Eisenstadt's superior forecasting acumen. I'm not saying that Eisenstadt is not a superior forecaster, just that the chart is not a good measure of his talents. A more detail…
Hi Nick de Peyster,
I couldn't agree more! Garbage in, garbage out is always an accurate cautionary summary.
And since future investment returns and inflation rate changes are unknowable unknowns, the sensitivity of retirement success to these un…
Hi Old Joe,
Well time hasn't changed much for us. You're the same Old Joe of FundAlarm days. That's not only good for you, it's good for me.
It's amazing how your earlier submittal mirrored my initial entry. I said: " When I first became intere…
Hi Old Joe,
More sophisticated time related portfolio failure rates are not the problem with the codes. All Monte Carlo codes generate that data as a natural output of their calculation procedure. The problem is that many code designers elect not…
Hi Guys,
A double hooray is warranted. To complementt the Larry Swedroe endorsement of the Monte Carlo simulator, Professor Snowball has added his informed investment weight. Recently he posted a reply that mentioned a Monte Carlo code that he fa…
Hi Guys,
Jim Stack is a very defensive oriented money manager. He is a constant worrier which is a positive characteristic for a money man. He is a rock-solid, good man.
For years he has assembled and follows a series of Bear market signals. T…
Hi Guys,
In life "you don't always get what you pay for" seems to be a rule rather than an exception. That's especially true in the mutual fund business. Here is a Link to a one minute video that documents that truism from Morningstar:
http://ww…
Hi Guys,
Hooray for Larry Swedroe! In this current article Swedroe identifies Monte Carlo simulators as an important tool when making a retirement decision. He joins many financial advisors who also exploit this useful tool when making that life …
Hi Bobpa,
I like your plan to incentivize your grand daughter towards a savings program. That's a tough sell, but the necessary first step in providing for a comfortable retirement. Good for you and good for your grand daughter.
But asking for a…
Hi Catch22,
No! I would not recommend a term life insurance policy for only tax avoidance purposes. Taxes should be a secondary consideration. In his "Winning the Loser's Game", Charlie Ellis lists his 10 investor Commandments. Among a host of …
Hi Catch22,
Extrapolating short term market data for a much longer timeframe is dangerously serious business. It can certainly promote an unrealistic outlook and a deeply flawed projection.
I know you were kidding in your post, but it did surface…
Hi Guys,
Talking politics makes few converts; it does make many enemies. In the spirit of Charlie Ellis, it is a Loser's Game.
Winning at this Loaer's Game would be to talk about the influence of political decisions on the marketplace without pra…
Hi Guys,
I'll not classify myself as a permabull, but I probably feel market bullish most of the time. Why? The historical market data supports that optimistic perspective.
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior". I don't know…
Hi Guys,
In recent times I have become an advocate of a portfolio dominated by a diversified mix of Index holdings. That was not always the case. When I initially ventured into the mutual fund world, I filled my portfolio with actively managed pr…
Hi Guys,
Thank you Ted for posting the most recent Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns. It comes with no great surprises, but it's a terrific tool that illustrates the relative performance differences of the major asset classes.
Blackrock…
Hi Bobpa,
Congratulations on a great gift idea and having a granddaughter to implement it. She's also a very fortunate girl with the opportunity for a really long (60 plus years) investment period.
I hope she has the interest, the discipline, and…
Hi Guys,
I'm sure genetics is indeed a factor in our investing philosophy and decision making. It partially explains our risk profile. The referenced article concludes that it controls like 45% of our investing decisions, although we can do thing…
Hi Guys,
Folks have been beating up on Wall Street for a long time.. The question is what and how exactly does Wall Street contribute to our economy. This cartoon provides a common answer:
http://www.newyorker.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/1011…
Hi Guys,
Bee, thank you for the invite to further endorse this site and its investment tools.
As you know, I'm a persistent advocate for using Mmonte Carlo analyses to help when making investment decisions. That's especially true when making the …
Hi LewisBraham,
I'm sure survivorship bias will impact the numbers, but the studies make a compelling case even without that correction.
Apparently the refinement that you suggested has been at least considered. Here is a Link to a summary that i…
Hi Guys,
The value added by active fund managers is always a controversial subject. There is no easy answer since most active managers fail, but a small fraction do succeed. Persistency in that outperformance success adds to the complexity. Choo…
Hi Guys,
Thanks for your inputs.
Yes, an almost endless array of charts can and are generated for market forecasting purposes. The trick is to downselect the really effective or edictive subset.
That's never easy, especially since that subset has…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the reference to the Yale survey.
It is indeed interesting in a fun sort of way, but offers no usable guidelines for an investment decision. What, if any, is the correlation between these sentiment signals and the equity market…
Hi Mark,
I like to access an originating source when available, and I did so. The Vanguard report is rather lengthy so I have not yet read it. I'm not highly motivated to do so because the article is very self serving for Vanguard advisors and be…
Hi Guys,
Seth Klarman is a smart guy who has followed a mostly winning formula for a long time. None of us are always forecasting geniuses, but he has an admirable record and deserves attention.
The stock market is sensitive to politics and the p…
Hi Catch22,
You're absolutely correct. I mistyped the Wimdsor symbol. Sorry about that. Thank you for the alert! I have corrected that error in my latest post.
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
I want to especially thank Hank and Lewis Braham for their thoughtful and thought provoking posts. I fully understand and appreciate the time commitment and deep thinking required to produce such excellent submittals. Their perspectives…
Hi msf,
Thanks for your comments concerning John Neff. Certainly his illustrious investment career does not end with a bang, but more with a whimper. He underperformed in his final year.
Speculating, that might well have been a major influence o…
Hi Guys,
There has been much discussion of Vanguard Index products (the Bogle Model) on this thread. The exclusionary emphasis has been on Vanguard Index funds. That's not too surprising given that Vanguard emphasis that segment of their business…
Hi Mark, Hi Hank,
Thanks for reading my post.
Please take a second look at the referenced article. It has both data for several,extended timespans up to 10 years, and does include a definition of the Bogle Model,which was invented by the author.
…
Hi Hank,
Than you for the reference.
I have not seen every Super Bowl game played, so I can not form an opinion of the greatest game ever. This game had several sloppy aspects.
That's why I said that the game was the greatest comeback game. I w…
Hi msf,
Well these exchanges seem to be endless. You are correct that I have an imperfect memory. I doubt that will shock many folks who likely are victimized by a similar shortcoming.
I also doubted any positive benefits from our exchanges unti…
Hi Guy,
Tom Brady amd Bill Belichick have been winners together for 17 years. That game management and leadership success history is hard to ignore. Ted and I are on the same page here. The Pats will win today!
Best Wishes.
Hi msf,
I'm perplexed that you persue this matter with such angry persistence and in such an unfriendly confrontational manner. There is no need for such a biligerent attack, especially on a website dedicated to helping mutual fund investors. Tha…
Hi msf,
You seem very exercised over Litman Gregory's current fund management selection process. I am not. At the present time, I have no skin in their game! I abandoned their ship a number of years ago and do not plan to invest with them again…
