Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi msf, Hi Guys,
Thank you all for reading my comments on Mr. Bengen and Monte Carlo retirement tools. My goal was not to tout Mr. Bengen, but much more importantly, to encourage you Guys to try a powerful Monte Carlo simulation for planning purpo…
Hi Hank,
I recognize that it was not your purpose, but the multiple photos that you presented brought back terrific boyhood memories.
My family owned a rental house in Seaside Heights during and just after WW II. It was a great vacation spot. A…
Hi Ted,
That's a Wow! No, that's a home run WOW!!!! Thanks so very much.
Let's not forget our military contributions on this glorious day. I salute them all. Here are a couple of Links that honor them and their service:
Enjoy. I wish all…
Hi again LewisBraham,
Thank you for your reasonable and well reasoned reply to my post.
In balance, we are not that far apart on this subject. I suspect my use of the word "volunteer" was inappropriate and triggered your reply. Perhaps the word …
Hi LewisBraham,
You're right that not our economy, nor anyone else's, is really free. More properly, I should have said "capitalistic economy". That more accurately summarizes what I really wanted to say. Sorry about my imprecise writing.
I do…
Hi Guys,
It takes an active imagination to see the correlation between this chart data shape and an elephant. The chart title was most likely selected to attract attention. The data itself has meaning for dedicated economists, but are of doubtful…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the excellent guitar reference. But if a single guitar gently weeps, a set of ganged guitars aggressively shouts. That's especially true for this forum if the subject is money. So here is a post that complements your original …
Hi Ted,
Thanks for this little vignette. It is worrisome because it hits so close to home. Far too many folks know far too much about us. There is great potential for harm. Privacy has all but disappeared.
Your story is funny, but in a larger …
Hi Bitzer,
Sorry that I failed to respond to your 2014 question. I hope that failure did not impact your investment decisions.
It is highly likely that I simply did not see your request. I do not visit MFO daily. There are times when I do not s…
Hi Guys,
Indeed, the data demonstrate that economists are an optimistic band. The chart not only illustrates that optimism, but also shows that they are very asymmetric in their forecasts. Over the many forecasts provided in the chart, the econom…
Hi BobC,
Based on your post, it appears that we are mostly on the same page with respect to our time commitment to investment research and decision making.
But we're moving in opposite directions relative to that time commitment. My wife and I re…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for reading and responding to my post. Your comments attract attention to my submittals. I appreciate that. Your sarcasm is noted.
But satcasm is a Losers game, especially on the Internet. It is often interpreted as a form o…
Hi Guys,
The best mutual fund website is difficult to identify because it depends on your investment timeframe, trading frequency, and other factors relating to your investment philosophy and practice. There is no single answer for everyone.
Base…
Hi Old Joe, Hi Davidrmoran,
The energy document that I referenced is impressive in my assessment. It seemed to be very inclusive and comprehensive. It cited an endless list of references after each major section. Its explanations were clear and …
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for reading and commenting on my post.
In another life (my wife and I retired over 20 years ago), my wife occasionally was tasked to help clean the solar panels on the farms that were constructed in the Southern Californi…
Hi Guys,
The Bloomberg projection comes as a great surprise. Several relatively recent studies, that are only a few years dated, painted a far less optimistic perspective for solar energy production and acceptance. Here is a Link to one such stud…
Hi Old Joe, Hi Guys,
It"s not entirely clear to me why I became the subject of assessment in this discussion. I present my perspectives in my own style. Why not challenge substance, and not style? My submittal was sincere and rather commonplace.…
Hi Hank,
You completely failed to address my question with respect to your acrimonious posting. If your second submittal on my original post is your takeaway so be it.
However, it is a too simplistic interpretation. It fails to recognize my admi…
Hi Hank,
Wow!!!! There's a huge pile of emotion and venom in your reply to my post. I hope your venting of that emotion gave you some peace.
You did not properly capture the essence of my reply. I fail to see the correlation between what you po…
HI Guys,
If anyone does listen and then trade based on a Jim Roger's prediction, they do so with great risk to their wealth. I agree with MFO members who are skeptical of any forecaster's projections.
Simply put, forecasters can't forecast. Muc…
Hi Puddnhead,
Well you did get plenty of investment suggestions, but none from me. I elected not to participate mostly because I'm nowhere near informed enough about your particular circumstances to make any really meaningful suggestions. My gues…
Hi Hank,
Thanks for your informative reply. I had no understanding of what happens to the conventional physics of the conservation laws if time were distorted. From a practical perspective, I don't worry much about that probability.
All analogie…
Hi Guys,
Increasing the number of actively managed mutual funds in a portfolio simply increases the odds of underperforming the marketplace. It is a Loser's strategy because the actively managed funds global distribution curve is not symmetrically…
Hi Guys,
According to the millionaire teacher, Andrew Hallam, the proper number for a diversified portfolio is a mere 3.
His simplistic 3 includes all low cost index funds: a US equity index position, an international index product, and a short te…
Hi Guys,
Note the huge differences in estimated percentage saving requirements from even the experts quoted in the Forbes reference that Davidrmoran provided. Those estimates reflect the uncertainties embedded in any and all such projections. Mak…
Hi Districtwanderer,
If nothing else, I'll remain consistent when savings and retirement withdrawal rate issues are discussed.
Please you Monte Carlo simulations to explore what-if scenarios and to inform a decision.
No decision is forever final …
Hi Davidrmoran,
No, I meant what I said. I will not report my results. That was my failed attempt at humor.
The included tests in the article are relatively weak when contrasted against other similar tests that are available on the Internet. I …
Hi Hank,
Thanks for reading and replying to my post. After some difficulty, I did gain access to the full article that you referenced. It is an excellent summary of why and how often we lie.
I did take the two brief tests in that National Geogra…
Hi Guys,
Charlatan is six-.dollar word. A cheaper and more common equivalent word is liar.
There are many signals that a liar unconsciously delivers. These have been studied for many years. Several excellent videos have been produced that summa…
Hi Guys,
An interesting Link with some terrific charts. But no great surprise given that the S&P 500 is a capitalization weighted index.
That weighting formula will move any correlation coefficient higher when the overall index is compared to…
Hi Guys,
I'm taking the liberty to expand the best music search to include movies. That's especially warranted given my choice and the very special event that happened on this day over 70 years ago.
My choice is the theme song for "The Longest Da…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for the interesting and informative exchange. I learned plenty.
I greatly appreciate BobC's reference to "The Man in the High Castle " series. I liked the original series and was not aware that a season two had been made. …
Hi Guys,
Thank you for your comments.
I can see where my lazy submittal caused some confusion. I was not precise enough.
I did not mention time scale which is a critical distinction in market timing. I am not a buy and hold forever investor. I…
Hi Guys,
Staying invested when the market is in a decline is not an easy dichotomous yes/no decision. A full continuous set of exposure options is available. It is often exercised because of the uncertainty of the depth of decline. The decision …
Hi Guys,
Fortunately, I have never been a victim of the fear cycle displayed in the reference article. Responding to the elements shown in that cycle will almost surely depress any market rewards.
Here is a Link to an article that appeared in The…
Hi Guys,
Forecasting is hazardous duty. Most of us fail more often than we succeed. What's true for us is equally true for proclaimed professional forecasters too. The accumulated data supports that bleak assessment.
CXO Advisory Group has been…
Hi Hank,
Indeed, Robert Mueller will do a good, solid job. Everywhere he goes, that is the outcome. He is an excellent choice for a challenging task.
Best Wishes
Hi Catch22,
Thanks for correcting the attribution. I received the rules from a friend, usually very reliable, without checking the basic source, and just reposted it. My error. The source is always an important fact to establish confidence and t…
Hi Guys,
I have learned to conquer all these potentially dangerous biases with the possible exception of one of them. I still have a slight tendency to overstate my accomplishments by just a little.
The remedies proposed in the article are easily…
Hi Catch,
Indeed, the markets might move in the direction that you suggested. Then again, it just might generate results in the opposite direction. It's just statistics, but statistics do yield the probability likelihoods, and these offer decisio…
