Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
As General Anthony McAulife famous said in the 1944 Battle of Bastogne "Nuts". Short but on target.
I felt the same way after initially replying to the question on this post. I said "Immediately" without proper research before respondin…
Hi Davidrmoran,
I assume your post is directed towards me and I'm somewhat puzzled by it.
I am a completely amateur investor and have never charged for any proffered advice. It's likely worth what folks pay for it. In fact, I resist offering any…
Hi Guys,
Indeed, jail time is far too harsh a penalty for bad advice. I said it with tongue-in-cheek; I was definitely being hyperbolic for emphasis purposes. We would need to build far too many new jails.
My general impression is that there are…
Hi Old Skeet,
Sorry for my omission. You are on target in that the quality of advice sometimes does depend on perspective. I assessed the received advice as being much more in support of the advisor's wellbeing than to fundamentally help my novic…
Hi Hank, Hi John,
I agree that the Great Depression had a multigenerational impact on many of us. The conservative life style that the Depression forced on our parents for survival was absorbed and practiced by many of us. Much of my wealth is th…
Hi Alex,
My one word answer, given that you have made your decision, is "immediately".
Based on your post, you have fully explored all the "what if" scenarios and have concluded that a diversified portfolio of low cost Vanguard offerings satisfies…
Hi Guys,
I don't worry this issue. Yes, in the recent past Indexing has attracted investor attention and money. According to Morningstar, equity Index products are 40% and bond Index products are 25% of the marketplace. Those numbers have grown …
HI Guys,
This is a terrific article that nicely summarizes many valuable investor learned lessons. Please take time to access and read it. It is well worth the effort.
Here is a reference to an earlier article by the same author. It too provides…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for a very nice and informative discussion.
I like Charlie Ellis. He is a winner by any measurement standard. I believe his revised 2010 edition of “Winning the Loser’s Game” is a superb, easy to digest, introduction to a …
Hi Guys,
This post simply adds more grist to the Indexing mill.
Many other posts that address this debate have appeared on MFO recently. Here is an internal Link to one of my more recent contributions to this matter:
http://www.mutualfundobserve…
Hi Guys,
Yes, the Kng on Passive fund investing has been the leader of an Index investing strategy for decades, but they never abandoned the active gravy train. Typically, Vanguard has offered an alternate actively managed fund in each category th…
Hi Guys,
Nothing new here. The SPIVA scorecard has been released biannually for a long time. Although the numbers change a little with each study release, the primary findings are invariant.
Active fund managers are always on the short end of th…
Hi Guys,
Heavy weight fund managers do exist, but they do not persist. Yesterday's winners are likely to be tomorrow's losers. That's a fair summary of the historical record that is repeated time and time again.
“So if you can get a couple of d…
Hi AKAFlack,
Indeed, it is good to hear from you. Given my age (82), my wife and I are doing well. I hope that's the same with you and yours.
I too am marginally overconfident by less than 10 points. That's not too bad. The test was hard. I w…
Hi Catch22,
Like most evolutionary movements much depends on timeframe and where you look. Women have successfully penetrated many professions. One industry that has escaped Gloria Steinem however has been the financial sectors, especially mutual…
Hi Guys,
Fraud is a very emotional and perjorative characterization. Yes, a few things are disquieting with the referenced fund, and caution should be the operative watchword. However, a fraud charge is premature at this juncture. It's probably a…
Hi MikeM,
You are both right and wrong. My post is indeed constructed to be positive. You are right that generational bias did exist, but not typically among my generation. It pretty much ended in the generations preceding my group. Rosie the R…
Hi Guys,
Nowadays, it's all about freedom of choice. In the USA women are free to enter whatever occupation appeals to them on an individual basis. Education is not a limiting factor. More females do post-high school than men.
Women choose not …
Hi Guys,
I’m a little amazed by how often referenced articles and posts interact with one another.
Just today, this article on Marc Faber and the 10 Laws of Wealth piece have that interconnected character. Here is the internal Link to the 10 laws…
Hi jstr,
Indeed a lot has changed over the decades with our largest US companies. After WW II, the smoke stack industries dominated in the Northeast and in Detroit. Today the workforce is dominated by computer and service related industries, and …
Hi Guys,
Recessions have become a more rare phenomenon since the Great Depression as we evolved from an emerging country to a mature country status.
Not only have recessions become more rare, they are also less devastating to the GDP growth rate, …
Hi Guys,
The three Ps work wonders. From long gone famous motivational speaker and writer Napoleon Hill: “Patience, persistence, and perspiration make an unbeatable combination for success”.
The referenced article makes a case for a patient fund …
Hi Guys,
I am in complete agreement with Crash, but I will not call him Puck as he suggested. The MFO contributions to this discussion have rightfully come full circle. That’s as it should be.
We do have a proclivity to wonder off topic. Often …
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for this stimulating exchange of ideas. I still fail to get excited about the potential long term penetration of the stock and 10-year Treasury dividend yield curves which hasn’t happened since 1957. Even if it does happen …
Hi Junkster,
It is indeed possible that I missed your point. I read and responded to your post after midnight, and that’s well beyond my normal bedtime.
But I remain puzzled by the emphasis that you and others place on the fact that stock dividen…
Hi Junkster,
Thank you reading my post and contributing to the discussion.
I was not immediately aware of the roughly 2 decade market timeframe starting in 1958 that you referenced in your reply. At that referenced date, I had only started invest…
Hi Catch22,
Thanks for reading my post.
Your suggestion that “This Time is Different” rests on shaky grounds. Anyone who plays that investment style better have deep pockets and some evil desire to commit investing hari-kari. Deep pockets becaus…
Hi Guys,
What nuanced nonsense! The article had many words, and just about zero new market interpretations. Change is continuous; that’s not an unexpected proclamation.
Change always happens, especially among various investment asset classes. I…
Hi Guys,
Only on rare occasions does my wife read my posts. That’s too bad since her IQ is two standard deviations higher than mine, and her reviews often generate constructive suggestions. That didn’t happen in my earlier post which she has subs…
Hi Guys,
Indeed CALPERS has had a rough year. But that's not extraordinary. It's more the rule than the exception. Over the last 20 years, that agency has underperformed the equity markets in just about that entire timeframe.
As an investment a…
Hi Guys,
The author closes with the controversial conclusion that Modern Portfolio Theory is dead. I say controversial because of the very short term data that the author deploys to bolster his argument, and his very selective manner of assembling…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your perspective and your extensive reference. The reference is overwhelming with detail that only a statistician would ever want to know.
Not all forecasts are equally formulated; not all forecasters are equally talented. …
Hi Catch,
Thanks for your interesting perspective. I agree that each investor gets to choose his own poison, although sometimes well meaning and well paid financial advisors intentionally usurp that responsibility. Regardless, investors are respo…
Hi Guys,
Hallelujah!! It was a great celebration of our Nation’s birthday. The fireworks were launched early, were continuous, were extensive, and lasted well into the night.
Given the costs of these fireworks, one interpretation is that the Sou…
Hi Guys,
I don't get especially exercised when I see market returns that are tied to very specific start and stop dates. I'm especially alert when those dates have fractional time components. I don't worry those types of numbers which seem to be t…
Hi Guys,
Ben Carlson writes a very informative financial column. Most of the time it is carefully researched and documented. There are a few exceptions. The current work that emphasizes a demographic theme is one such article. He took a US Cens…
Hi Catch,
No,No! Never in confidence as I have made abundantly clear in endless earlier posts. Forecasters have a terrible scorecard, and can't forecast with any reliability. That includes me, and I don't consider myself a forecaster. Forecaste…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for participating. Really thoughtful stuff!
We are all free to express our opinions. They are only opinions, some better informed then others, but still opinions. Those who claim to own a crystal ball often need to cleanu…
Hi rjb112, Hi catch22,
Thanks for reading my post. I was trying to lighten the mood.
Catch, you presume correctly. I wrote the brief paragraph emphasizing that the world economy one day before the Brexit vote was essentially the same as the day …
Hi Guys,
Jonathan Clements has a list of 51 financial “don’ts” that is irregularly updated as necessary. MFO has referenced it earlier, but it does warrant a repeat acknowledgment. Here is the Link once again:
http://www.jonathanclements.com/
I…
