Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
This is an overdo reaction that reflects the accumulating wisdom of the investing public. We learn, but only so slowly. The author of the piece captures the reason in his closing summary:
"The bottom line: Fund managers who try to beat …
Hi davidrmoran,
Thanks for reading my reply. It’s oftentimes hard to infer the true intent of your comments. Are they sincere or are they sarcastic? Regardless, I’m a true believer of using Monte Carlo tools to explore the possibilities of uncer…
Hi Guys,
The fact that various on-line retirement survival planners yield disparate projections should not shock anyone. Given the complexity of that projection and its sensitivities to hugely speculative inputs like savings and investment returns…
Hi Guys,
It is no shock that mutual fund organizations work very hard to embellish their funds annual returns. One only wishes that these funds work equally hard at actually delivering superior returns to their loyal investor base. Hope springs e…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article that presents the shortfalls of investor returns relative to market rewards in the 1950s doesn't adequately document this highly persistent pattern. The individual investor shortfall is a reality across all decades.…
Hi David,
A dinner date is too friendly an environment to question and challenge aggressively. Beside, that approach has the likelihood of spoiling a superior dining experience.
Also, the short exposure time only is a snapshot to the thinking of …
Hi Crash,
Thanks for your reply.
The commonly accepted wisdom is that the only way to make extra profits when investing is to be contrarian. Following the herd will not generate excess rewards. That bit of folk wisdom is likely true, but it's ex…
Hi Ted,
Great stuff; it's a terrific find. Thank you so very much. My wife and I both enjoyed a hearty laugh.
Economics is often considered a dry, boring subject that causes students to yawn and sleep. If this series of graphs were introduced i…
Hi Guys,
Academicians who practice the art of investing are often bombarded by bad press. Many of the purposely aimed body blows are below the belt and totally unwarranted.
Ben Carlson does a nice job summarizing the inventions and accomplishment…
Hi Catch,22,
Yes, as I observed in my last post, I was mistakenly recalling the report of the oldest veteran's death as the death of the very last veteran. Sorry for that error. It most likely will not be my last. That's a fairly safe prediction…
Hi Catch22,
You might be right. I didn't research that statement. I got the impression that time has taken its relentless toll from the following article on a 110 year old survivor from Lousiana who passed recently:
http://www.militarytimes.com…
Hi Guys,
Ted, thank you for your reminder.
From George Santayana " Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Yes, indeed that's so. Rommel knew that the battle on the beaches would be decisive. Here is a Link to the song p…
Hi Guys,
Bill Gross is a smart investor and has an impressive, but certainly not perfect, forecasting record. That’s true for everyone in the chaotic investment universe. The guru scorecards maintained by CXO Advisory Group clearly demonstrate th…
Hi Mona,
Over time my disenchantment with active funds grew with their lackluster performance. About one year ago, I decided to take action. As a goal, I decided to reduce the active fund components of my portfolio to approximately the one-third …
Hi heeSafe,
The English language is dynamic. I would be careful about what is and what is not acceptable usage today or even tomorrow. English in the USA is different from English in England. I sure am not an expert in this field, but some expe…
Hi Guys,
Comparing women’s skills and contributions against men’s skills and contributions in any competitive industry is always entering controversial and dangerous waters.
Simple explanations are easy, but are often wrong. Complex explanations …
Hi Ted,
Wow!! That's an impressive discovery in a short elapsed time. I'm definitely impressed, but not at all surprised. It's just another example of your research talent and commitment to MFO.
Many thanks for refreshing a rapidly fading memor…
Hi Heezsafe,
I completely agree: “it's what you know for sure that just ain't so” that could do you major league harm.
In the 1950s I decided to invest in the stock market. Given my rookie status, I was absolutely sure that everyone knew more tha…
Hi msf,
I appreciate your perspective.
I'm an amateur investor and consequently have huge knowledge holes. I suppose you mean Money Market Funds with your mmf abbreviation. Or perhaps you mean Makes Money Fast. Either is appropriate.
I have ze…
Hi Guys,
In the referenced article, The Economist reports that the tide has finally turned in terms of active fund management. Active fund management is losing market share. It’s about time! It has been statistically established that professiona…
Hi Catch,
Yes indeed. I'm always shocked by how many folks that I encounter have so little investment knowledge and foolishly pass on equities because of undefined fear. Volatility exacerbates this fear factor.
A very appropriate reference. Than…
Hi Guys,
I'm very much with msf's perspective relative to the "sell in May" conventional maxim; the statistical data is wild and very timeframe sensitive. Here is a Link to an article that appeared in USA Today in early May:
http://www.usatoday.c…
Hi Guys,
Cautiously, this might be,just might be, good news.
Historically, much has been observed about the inability of forecasters to accurately forecast. Their record hovers around the odds of a fair coin toss.
The AAII participants, as measu…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for participating. I especially liked the reference that Davidrmoran provided.
Leadership means different things to different folks. I tend to measure it by results, as long as those outcomes were controlled by skill and not l…
Hi Guys,
I see this thread has morphed into a RMD discussion.
Both my wife and I have been exposed to this government requirement for a long time. Our portfolio has many moving parts. The RMD documentation from the various supporting agencies ha…
Hi Guys,
Strange and inexplicable numbers seem to popup without apparent rhyme or reason more frequently than we commonly recognize.
Often there is a mystical or unknown explanation that makes little if any sense. I’m not familiar with any explan…
Hi Guys,
This Hulbert article seems to add further evidence for the frequent appearance of the 80/20 rule that I discussed in a recent MFO exchange. Here is the internal Link to that discussion:
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/05/the-sp-500-…
Hi Bee,
Thank you for reading, replying, and reacting to my post. I greatly appreciate that unexpected trifecta. I am not especially happy with my present post.
I was pressed for time with competing and compulsory duties. I failed to provide ad…
Hi Guys,
The study's findings reinforce the ubiquitous character of the 80/20 Principle.
What is that Principle? It basically claims that 20% of the effort produces 80% of output. Like 20% of the workforce generates 80% of the goods.
In the mut…
Hi Hank Again,
I meant to incorporate the following reference into my earlier submittal and failed to do so. Here it is now:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/rbernstein_081314.php?channel=Smart Beta
Chart 1 in the Bernstein refere…
Hi Hank,
Thank you again for this exchange opportunity. Yes,like a few others on MFO, I have a strong tendency towards prolixity. I am guilty of that communication sin. Sorry about that.
But I am not guilty of ridiculing anyone's investment dec…
Hi Hank,
Thanks for your reply.
It appears that you, like me, "practice what Dave Gardner preaches". I hope it has served you as well as it served me.
My posting was not meant as a comment on any MFOer's investing strategy; to each his own poiso…
Hi msf,
Thank you for your post. It is always a benefit to hear the case for a divergent opinion. In investing, like in most everything else, the rule rather than the exception is “Different Strokes for Different Folks”. To use another mundane a…
Hi Guys,
I like Jason Zweig. He is at or near the top of my ranking of all financial writers. Indeed, I like Jason Zweig a lot.
Although I’ve never kept score, I probably agree with 95% of his writings without reservation. But I do take excepti…
Hi Guys,
BobC couldn’t be more on-target. He has it exactly right.
Charts can be designed to illuminate, but they can also be designed to distort. Admittedly, I am guilty of doing both in my professional career. I suspect most of us have partic…
Hi Guys,
Thank you folks for your kind interest. I especially want to thank Hank and Anna for their candidates for the Very Best award.
I believe their submittals are excellent alternatives deserving of consideration, but I remain comitted to my …
Hi Hank,
Thanks for reading my post and your question.
I doubt that you folks can learn much from my learning experiences since they are rather mundane and have been reported on MFO many times.
In the 1950s I was a semi-active trader who invested…
Hi Guys,
Nothing!
I am not buying, not selling, and doing almost zero pondering. I leave the deep pondering for the heavy weight investors who think they can forecast market direction. That's a Loser game since nobody persistently succeeds at it…
