Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Catch22,
I thank you for reading my post, however I do not see any contradictions in my several sratements that you quoted. Interpretations can and do differ.
I was simply summarizing that I do not believe that the disappointing chart reflects…
Hi Guys,
What a disaster! The chart tells a story of cumulative failure. It is an outright disgrace.
The failure that I perceive is not a national failure. It is the failure of the individual and/or the individual family unit. The USA is a pro…
Hi Guys,
I realize that some serious stuff was exchanged on this topic, but I still feel a little humor might move the needle here.
I was only modestly interested in the exchanges so I skimmed them. That was a mistake and caused me at least momen…
Hi Ted,
Many thanks for the SPIVA reference. It was a reminder of days past.
Not many years ago I eagerly awaited the SPIVA reports. Not so much so these days. I became weary of the same old, same old performance persistency registered by the a…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for posting a Link to this video. The assembled panel is certainly manned by elite members from the professional investment community. They are representative of heavy weight firepower in that community.
It is a reasonable expe…
Hi Guys,
I originally posted to introduce Army leadership doctrines. Early in my post I said " Giuliani's book is not why I'm posting now. It did get me thinking about how leadership qualities translate into productive investment decision making."…
Hi Guys,
You all probably realize that I'm a big fan of Monte Carlo simulations when making financial decisions. Monte Carlo methods were specifically developed to address uncertainties and that's in the wheelhouse of investment decision making.
…
Hi Guys,
I agree entirely with the referenced article. Without providing supporting documentation, I can answer the question in 9 words: The difference between a managed fund and an Index fund is "lower costs and better returns for the Index fund…
Hi Guys,
I never intended to cause a political firestorm.
On 9/11 there were no democrats, no republicans, no independents, and even no communists. On that day we were all Americans. I read "Leadership" to get a perspective from the man who had …
Hi Hank,
I suppose I should thank you for the Putin reference, but I have no interest in his leadership positions. Besides, the book you referenced was not written by Putin, so it is a second hand assessment at best. Additionally, the two men ope…
Hi Davidrmoran,
This advice from Kenneth Branagh: "Lihhten up, just enjoy life, smile more, laugh more, and don't get so worked up about things".
My post was meant to be fun. I said so when I sumitted it.
I agree that I need to know much more th…
Hi Davidrmoran,
A double wow from me. You quickly turned my rather neutral post into a fierce political opinion. That was not my intent. But having moved in that direction, here is a Link to a simple quiz that is designed to identify your politi…
Hi LewisBraham,
Wow! Thank you for your contrary assessment of Giuliani's tenure as NYC mayor. It directly conflicts with his book claims. I think I understand some of the reasoning behind your police state charge.
Giuliani targeted crime as a …
Hi Guys,
After posting I thought you might be interested in Rudy Giuliani's leadership rules. Here is his list of 14, which are all chapter headings in his book. The numbers are the chapters in "Leadership":
2. First Things First
3. Prepare Rele…
Hi Expatsp,
Thank you for your very kind words. I greatly appreciate them and your words of encouragement. I will continue the march.
Thank you also for the cautionary heads-up with respect to writing in a condescension manner. I was simply tryi…
Hi Old Joe,
You are always free to interpret my posts in whatever way you choose.
It is never my intent to talk anyone down. I don't comment on specific fund choices or portfolio asset allocations. I hesitate to offer any recommendations because…
Hi Once Again Davidrmoran,
So you persist in being critical of my opening statement “….forecasting is hazardous duty and is often wrong. But not always.” I consider it a rather innocuous introduction. Yes, it is redundant. But I constructed it …
Hi Davidrmoran,
You are always free to express an opinion. I disagree with your assertion with regard to the statement that you pulled from my post. And it was a minor inconsequential part of the submittal. My primary thrust was to recognize the…
Hi Davidrmoran,
It's interesting that you refer to a coin flip as an example. We often suggest the flip as a 50/50 outcome game. That's yet another example of an oversimplification. We don't know as much as we think we know.
While the coin toss…
Hi Guys,
I certainly agree that forecasting is hazardous duty and is often wrong. But not always. It's one of those instances when you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. The fact is that we all make forecasts everyday in every way, oft…
Hi Guys,
I liked Kinnel's sorting approach. It's the approach that matters most, not the outcome.
Kinnel clearly specifies his multiple selection criteria and demands that all of them are satisfied, thus eliminating any weighting arguments. I'm …
Hi Hank,
None! I'm totally unfamiliar with particle entanglement.
You, I, and a host of other folks share our bewilderment. And that even includes Albert Einstein. Although he was a major player in formulating Quantum theory, he too was unhappy…
Hi DanHardy,
Please tell me that your closing paragraph is a joke. That it is a red herring designed to bring a smile not to Buddha's face, but rather to us common folk.
I'm sure not comfortable with complex particle physics, especially those dis…
Hi Guys,
It's amazing how often financial articles appear after a debate has been initiated on MFO that addresses the same issue. Here is a Link to an article that discusses the volatility argument being debated in our posts:
http://awealthofcomm…
Hi Guys,
There are many ways to define and calculate an investment risk. Alpha, Beta, Sharpe Ratio and Standard Deviation are commonly used. Standard Deviation is embedded in Alpha, Beta, and Sharpe Ratio.. It is a player in determining a portfo…
Hi Guys,
Thank you Ted for the 9/11 reference. We will never forget.
On a National holiday, I typically raise our flag and salute. Today, I raised our flag and saluted twice. Once in respect of our Nation. I made a second salute to honor the b…
Hi Davidrmoran,
There must be a score or more parameters that could be deployed to choose a mutual fund and a portfolio of funds. That number likely increases to the hundreds if distinct weighting functions are added to the matrix options.
Each i…
Hi Davidrmoran,
We agree that volatility is an imperfect measure of risk. But standard deviation as an incomplete measure of risk does operate to reduce average equity returns when converting that average return to the more meaningful compound ave…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Indeed I did read all the articles that were referenced in this post to this point.
I’m not sure that a definition of risk and risk control universally exists. Risk has many components and means different things for different fol…
Hi Davidrmoran,
You are absolutely right that most folks commit a fraction of their portfolios to bonds to quiet volatility. But there is a lot more to that decision than an emotional factor.
When volatility (standard deviation) is attenuated, ac…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for the very clear and succinct presentation of your various investing programs, rules, exceptions, and flexibilities. Flexible and adaptive thinking is necessary given market uncertainties. Your strategies are far more nua…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Thank you for the excellent reference. It was more than I ever cared to know about DARPA.'s early history.
In fact, it reinforced my basic comments.
Look, it's a small, no a tiny matter. Throughout your referenced Link, ARPA sp…
Hi Davidrmoran,
We ought to stop doing this or folks will start talking.
Sorry that we disagree on who should get the most credit for the invention of such a useful worldwide product as the Internet. The concept did develop over an extended timef…
Hi Again Davidrmoran,
I hate hitting on a small point, but I post now with a minor complaint. You do DARPA an injustice by not using Caps uniformly.
DARPA is the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency. It was formed in 1958 in response to an …
Hi Davidrmoran,
Your desire to learn more on what quickly becomes a complex mathematically dominated topic is highly commendable and deserves respect. Good luck in your exploration. I abandoned my interest a few years ago because of my own persis…
Hi msf,
Thank you for your interest and reply to my post.
Yes, I drift upward towards optimism. Without an optimistic outlook my job would have been impossible. But that optimism was mostly rewarded.
The referenced video reinforced my optimisti…
Hi Guys,
I suppose it's fair to say that as I age, I have become more and more skeptical and just short of paranoid with respect to the real skill sets of market wizards. Do they really exist?
I tend to rate market forecasters and active fund man…
Hi steppinrazor,
I agree that reading 500 pages per day is a challenge beyond the reach of most folks. Especially elusive if some comprehension is a target goal. Doubly elusive if, like me, your education and experience are in the scientific or e…
Hi Ted,
Thanks for the reference to the Barron's forecasting article.
But regardless of the impressive credentials of the 10 person expert team assemble by Barron's, the forecasts are rather pedestrian and not confidence inspiring. The team proje…
Hi Guys,
Although it has taken a number of informed comments, we have finally arrived at deploying the Presidential Cycle as a market entry/exit timing mechanism.
Like most market advice, it is not without considerable controversy. To be fair, I …
