Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
In no way did I anticipate this tsunami of submittals that discuss Masters Select funds when I referenced them in my original post. I thought I made a harmless comment. Why the many MFO exchanges discussing that outfit?
I merely used th…
Hi msf,
It macht nichts to me if you call this select group of investors great or greatest; that distinction is far too nuanced for my simple definition of a productive active mutual fund manager. I simply search for one who just might generate a …
Hi Guys,
Given that over many decades, multiple thousands of investment advisors and fund managers are candidates for superior performance accolades, the rather short list proposed by various MFOers endorsements speaks volumes about the shortfall o…
Hi Hank,
Thanks for responding to my post.
My reference to Bogle was just my casual introduction to the topic. But it is my humble opinion that Bogle is indeed a great man. And it is simply an opinion. My criteria are likely different from othe…
Hi Guys,
Jack Bogle is a great man. He changed the investment business forever and in so doing he significantly reduced investment costs for all investors. I remember when the entry costs for buying a mutual fund were obnoxious. Yes, for the las…
Hi Hank,
I suspect that sleeping well at night is tightly coupled to our confidence level in our investments. That confidence level must be correlated with our investment knowledge; the more, the better.
In my earlier post, I focused on the trade…
Hi Hank,
In your post you emphasized the rather low interest rate currently offered by bonds. I agree that will slightly dampen the benefits of a major bond allocation in a portfolio. But that is a secondary, perhaps even a tertiary, consideratio…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for reading my contribution and for your comments.
I pulled the numbers I quoted from the Malkiel book that I referenced and added the 2007-2008 equity drawdown. On page 29 of the referenced work, Malkiel states that the return…
Hi Guys,
The upward pull of the equity marketplace is nearly irresistible. I say nearly irresistible because since 1953 the market has only experienced 10 recessions that occupied about 20% of a total period of over 550 months. In retrospect, it'…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Well congratulations on getting a persistent 95% plus success likelihood running different scenarios. That should be a confidence builder.
Over 2 decades ago, I used the 95% value as my threshold retirement target. I believe the …
Hi bee,
Wow, what a data dense website! I've added it to my bookmarks. It includes much more data than I new existed or will ever use. I now have options that will likely confuse.
Nevertheless, thank you so very much.
Best Wishes.
Hi Davidrmoran,
Sorry that you're experiencing difficulties using the Portfolio Visualizer code. I don't have any problems. Perhaps that's because I input my own data sets for each asset class in my portfolio.
So I input the expected average ret…
Hi Davidrmoran,
Based on your comment I assume you tried a portfolio that included an Emerging Markets component. As you discovered, the database for that asset class is limited to a starting year of 1995. Other asset class databases go back in …
Hi BobC,
Wise words. Many thanks for saying them. I have been retired for over twenty years and practice much of what you recommended. It works!
Best Wishes.
Hi msf,
You are correct in saying that my writing was not precise enough. I did switch between perception of the player and reality in mid sentence without identifying it; that is sloppy writing.
It is obvious that the player had a 1/3 chance of …
Hi msf,
Your analysis doesn't motivate me to change my position. The game is conducted in two stages with information added in the second stage. That reduces the possible outcomes and changes the odds.
Your own analysis recognizes that fact. Ne…
Hi msf,
Thank you for taking time to respond.
I agree that when making the initial door selection the odds of a successful pick is 1/3. However, the game is so constructed that the player has an optional choice after one door is exposed as beng a…
Hi Old Joe,
I couldn't agree more. Fortunitely most folks are at least a little more flexible in their thinking. I suspect most follow the wisdom embedded in J.M. Keynes famous quote: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for your prompt reply. I believe we are close to 100% agreement on this subject. From my perspective, this matter is closed. Then again, I'm often overly optimistic!
I also agree that political debates are a waste of time on a…
Hi Hank,
You misstate my position on this matter by a huge margin. I'm puzzled by how you found my checklist "simplistic". It doesn't exist.
I never wrote about my checklist on this matter. I do not have a reading checklist! Checklists are usef…
Hi Hank and Hi Guys,
I haven't thought much about Animal Farm since it was assigned as reading material way, way back in my High School days. I sure don't recall much about the story or its main animal characters. I do remember that the storyline…
Hi Guys,
Thanks for participating in this discussion with your special insights. They added much perspective to this exchange.
After posting, I gave the topic some further thought. I became a bit more alarmed given my skeptical perception of man…
Hi Guys,
When I posted initially I submitted the Link in great haste. I was anxious to get to the Presidential Inauguration TV coverage. In my haste I neglected to include one of the most famous quotes that address mistakes in general. I'll corr…
Hi Again LewisBraham,
Denial is no defense. Simply reread the referenced article and your opening paragraph. What you claimed the author stated just never happened. That's a classic straw man. You either misread the article or elected to misrepre…
Hi LewisBraham,
The bottom-line is that you seem to consider it an acceptable practice, when reviewing an article by another professional, to insert a nonexistent straw man. I do not. It is plain dishonest. It is a loser's policy. But you get t…
Hi Ted
Sorry for your serious health matter. Having served as a Marine, you are always a Marine so I know you will battle your COPD successfully. Stay strong. Even for this brief period we greatly missed you.
My Very Best Wishes for a recovery.
Hi LewisBraham,
A very unfair, not so difficult, reference to a busybody with wrong advice.
When submitting to MFO, I make a sincere and mostly successful effort to not give investment advice whatsoever. I don't know enough to do so. I try to si…
Hi LewisBraham,
I agreed with most of your observations and assessments of both the pros and cons for using active fund managers when assembling and maintaining a portfolio.
However, I was reluctant to continue reading your submittals on this topi…
Hi Hank,
Thank you for reading my post, and especially for your fine reply.
By listening to someone, I meant simply exposing myself to their thinking on a subject. We agree that listening to a variety of opinions and interpretations are an import…
Hi Guys,
Both Dent and Hussman are history to me. I realize that I should keep an open-mind, but their records are both long and spotted with frequently bad forecasts. I learn slowly but I do learn.
From Ecclesiastes 9:11 of the King James Bible…
Hi TSP transfer,
I too am addicted to pithy quotations and market maxims. That's obvious from my postings. I frequently incorporate these sayings in my submittals to increase readership enjoyment. Every little bit helps.
Sometimes my quotation …
Hi Mark,
Thank you for your Link that summarizes longer term market projections from a formidable array of powerhouse financial organizations. Not all so called experts are really expert, but these guys merit that designation.
I especially liked …
Hi Nick,
I agree that some fraction, perhaps even a major fraction, of those on the successful investor list made that list because of chance. Luck is always a factor when investing. But some poorly defined portion of the successful investor list…
Hi Skeet,
Thank you for your contribution and your 2017 forecast. According to the article, the odds of your projection being correct slightly exceeds the likelihood that the experts have it right.
I hope you are nearly on-target. I am not subst…
Hi Ron,
I agree that forecasting is folly and the trend is your friend. Trivial sayings but true nevertheless.
As J. Paul Getty said: "Bank on the trends and don't worry about the tremors". Getty is not a bad choice when accepting financial advi…
Hi Rforno and Guys,
Indeed the average investor tends to buy high and sell low. The accumulated performance data supports that observation.
It seems to be a double-barreled negative finding that has been consistent over an extended timeframe. Mu…
Hi Guys,
The inputs to this topic have wandered all-over the map with individual experiences related and National statistics liberally quoted. All made contributions, but I prefer carefully documented stats, especially those from our government.
…
Hi Old Joe,
Congratulations on your 46th anniversary. I wish you and your wife many more.
I was completely unaware of the Hallmark-China manufacturing deal. It's disappointing, but common in today's International marketplace. I pay about zero …
Hi Guys,
I couldn't agree more with you that the referenced article is extremely weak and confusing. That's especially disappointing given the credentials and professional positions of the authors. The article could and should have been more info…
