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2Y-10Y spread was only 17 bps. Yield-curve also has a tiny hump at 7-yr.
EOD chart should update soon, https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST10Y-$UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13919226325
Treasury Rates https…
@Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-lan…
@Junkster, T-Bills are now better than m-market funds. Buy those commission-free at Fido, Schwab, etc. There is a nearby thread on the details for T-Bills and T-Notes.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59328/tough-day-in-bond-lan…
Well, large distributions may also be forced by significant outflows (a negative for the fund) and manager changes (just housecleaning to start fresh, at best neutral). So, portfolio outperforming is not the only reason for large distributions altho…
It would be hard to win a case against a fund just because of large CGs. There have been larger and more shocking CGs.
But Vanguard used poor judgment in making disruptive changes just weeks ahead of the merger of 2 similar TDF series.
I wish one …
Shorts used to act quietly and in secret. But several recent shorting-firms are more vocal and media savvy. They establish short positions, release a big short/negative report and make media and social-media rounds. This isn't illegal. But it has li…
Giant fish eat big fish, big fish eat small fish, small fish eat tiny fish,....and so it goes.
So Eaton Vance was a acquisitive company that acquired ESG firm Calvert, etc.
Then the big gobbler Morgan Stanley gobbled Eaton Vance (but the name liv…
@Charles, @BaluBalu, here is some info on Treasury auctions.
General Schedule for T-Bills, T-Notes, T-Bonds, https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf
Upcoming 52-Wk T-Bills, for Tuesday …
@MikeM, sentiment indicators are contrarian and work well when at extremes. So, one should act in an opposite way. But one shouldn't rely on any one indicator.
This week's Survey didn't break any records but is extremely bearish. This means that c…
how does one go about buying the 2-yr treasury bonds? By the time we go to buy, they probably go down 10 bps in yield but still will be better than any CDs.
Treasury securities can be bought at new-issue at Treasury Direct & major brokerages (F…
Keep in mind that Powell is not confirmed yet. First, the announcement of his reappointment was delayed to only few weeks before his term expiry (early-February 2022). Now it is stuck in the Senate on a deadlock that was eliminated just yesterday. F…
Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why had its last post in February 2021, so it moved far-far down.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/56627/perpetual-buy-sell-why-thread/p5
Notes after press conference
Low probability of recession this or next year. Inflation should start to come down in 2022/H2 - some delay is due to the Russia-Ukraine war; supply-chain issues should lessen, base-effwcts should be past. Rate hikes m…
News is that some sort of compromise may develop for the US-listed Chinese stocks. China and HK markets are up strong and the ETF PGJ is also up strong in pre-market trading.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/china-says-it-will-support-chinese-ipos-a…
That is a different question. There are many oil-producers ETFs. The biggest is XLE, then IYE, etc. These being market-cap weighted have huge weights in XOM and CVX. There are options on XLE too. For equal-weights, there is RYE.
Oil-producers may b…
Lets try it this way: If an investor believed WTI would rally 30% over the next year, what vehicle would you use? No individual options. No K-1's. No leverage ETF's.
The answer to that is NONE.
Commodities that are hard to handle (e.g. oil) o…
@Charles, I used to buy T-Bills when rates were higher. Elsewhere, I had a thread on their upcoming new issue dates.
https://community.morningstar.com/s/feed/0D53o00005E8ZAtCAN
For decades, the ETFs operated under the so-called "exemptive-orders" (from rules that were really designed for mutual funds). Early ETFs got generous exemptions, but the later ones had more restrictive exemptions. Vanguard got away with murder with…
Regular ETFs do require daily releases of holdings. That is OK for indexed ETFs and active bond ETFs but not for equity ETFs. That is what held up their development so far. But the SEC has now approved several semi-transparent active ETFs that relea…
A Fed surprise is the last thing that the market would want at this time of a geopolitical event. I think a baby 25-bps hike will do for now with 50-bps shocker left in the reserve for later. But that is just my guess. At one time, I thought the Fed…
I think you mean the newer active ETFs. Several types have been approved by the SEC and they have different ways to provide limited portfolio information.
Provide some tickers.
SOR - Source Capital is a storied CEF with lots of history. Warren Buffett once thought so highly of the fund that he considered buying it, but that didn't happen. Activist Saba owns a stake. There was a big management change in 2016 and also change…
Regulated and unregulated utility markets are explained in this this link.
https://energywatch-inc.com/regulated-vs-deregulated-electricity-markets/
What is a regulated electricity market?
A “regulated electricity market” contains utilities that o…
Huge run ups and sharp pullbacks (reversals?) are seen in several commodities (except livestock).
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$CRB,$GKX,$GJX,$GYX,$GVX,$GPX|C|0
$GKX - agricultural, $GJX - energy, $GYX - industrial metals, $…
Utilities have regulated side - traditional power generation and distribution. But much of the alternative energy business (solar, wind, etc) is unregulated. So, now there are income-oriented and growth-oriented utilities. Funds have a mix of both.
…
I found JPM logic for recession too simplistic. Its strategist NP said that the average decline of SP500 in recessions has been 26%. Recently, SP500 was off 13% from peak, so the chance of recession is 100*13/26 or 50%. So, its formula for the chanc…
M* Interactive Charts have improved a lot since their introduction. Main problem is that they cannot be linked with URLs. I posted this note a while ago. Each site has +/- points - they give us what they want to give, not what we want to get. But, f…
KWEB fell -9.98% just on Friday on dual fears: 1) The SEC starting to list Chinese companies that may be delisted, 2) On realization after Russia-Ukraine war what a huge disaster any China-Taiwan flareup may mean for the huge China weight in the EMs…
I don't think so.
It may be just a warning for the new arms supply caravans moving openly through the Western Ukraine border and/or gifted old MIG planes flying through the Western Ukraine borders.
Until the last few days, the Western Ukraine had …
Deferred income annuities (DIAs) can be used for any purpose, LTC included. DIA from IRA, 401k/403b are called QLAC - there used to be a thorny RMD issue for DIAs from deferred accounts and laws were streamlined a few years ago to eliminate those co…
Not sure about 40% in commodities, but newer multi-asset funds have stocks + bonds + alternatives (that include commodities). Stock and bond portions may be more aggressive than those in typical 60-40 fund. Commodities are very volatile and little o…
Major indexes are now showing a downward channel of lower-highs and lower-lows. In the chart, change time to YTD if it defaults to 1 Yr.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p53659391262
This may not be as huge a problem that the media is making it out to be.
Insurance companies and funds sell CDSs (i.e. insurance on underlying bonds) in normal times and pocket the premium MOST of the time. But they have to pay up SOMETIMES. The CD…
$80 may be a critical level for XLE, but its all-time high is higher. And if it cannot breakout beyond $80 this time, it may never. It may be a reversal today, or not.
M* XLE Price 1/1/07-
Stockcharts _XLE 1/1/07-
Yep, the markets may be a bit unstable here. Look at various "VIXs" and the related implied daily volatilities (most of the time; and 2x and 3x quite possible).
SP500 VIX 32.45, daily +/- 1.71%
Nasdaq-100 VXN 35.34, daily +/- 1.86%
Oil OVX 73.25, d…
Commodities are volatile. They have been red hot, but they don't just go up, and today they sank (temporary?). Many commodity indexes (and ETFs) are heavy in energy or some other sector. There are commodity ETFs that dynamically select commodities w…
M* Fund Quickrank seems to show YTD as of today. There is no single category for bonds, but there are typical M* bond categories of corporate bonds, intermediate core, intermediate core-plus, HY, EM, multisector, etc.
BTW, in the multisector catego…
