Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The new SEC rules for semitransparent ETFs were only in 09/2019 (Rule 6c-11). It took a while for fund firms to get them through the SEC approvals. Now it may seem that lots of them are coming.
Some say that it was bond ^MOVE (or, the credit markets freeze) that prompted the Fed to literally move in late March 2020, not the stock VIX. But both had similar patterns. ^MOVE data are now available at Yahoo Finance.
Well, it IS a bear market for Nasdaq Comp & R2000 (measured from November 2021) and for crazy speculative stocks (ARKK-like) & the EMs (measured from February 2021). But not YET for the SP500 and no where close yet for the DJIA. I now think …
I find that Fido account typically updates after 8:30 - 9:00 PM Central but Vanguard and TIAA never do until the next morning. Friday was options expiry day with high volume, so that could be the reason for TRP delay in posting account update.
Abo…
Shorter-term Treasuries are responding to Fed actions but longer-term Treasuries are not. If this continues, the yield-curve may invert in Summer. See this chart for 2Y-10Y spread in the main panel and 10-yr in the bottom panel. T-Bills and 2-yr T-N…
BUFBX / BUFIX is classified as Allocation 85%+ equity (it had 97.26% equity on 3/31/22, Fact Sheet) and is self-benchmarked to 100% equity R3000. It has a huge overweight in energy at 24.8% (3/31/22 Fact Sheet), the only sector that is doing well no…
Several people in the media are calling for VIX to be 40+ (without mentioning how much above 40) and then hope that this market will reverse. Do they realize that VIX has been almost there already? VIX was 39 on 1/24/22, 38 on 2/24/22 & 3/8/22, …
QQQ outperforms other LC-growth such as VUG, SCHG. They just follow different indexes.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=QQQ&compare=SCHG,VUG&id=p06555195825
Options expiry days are wild with huge volume. Usually, the trend of the week is reinforced, so there may be some significance for the late rebound today.
BenWP, free Portfolio Visualizer (PV) can handle the MIX of mutual funds (OEFs), ETFs, CEFs and stocks properly. It is the only free software that provides portfolio MPT data. The free version doesn't allow storing portfolios anymore, but one can ha…
I heard from M*,
"FYI – we did a code release last night which removed the “Show Full Chart” link on the Stock quote page and the link to more Key Ratio day.
This applies to both logged-in and visitor experiences.
I’m hoping we restore this for…
No, free Stockcharts are good enough for me. For total-return, it uses a slightly different methodology of adjusted-prices (in Yahoo Finance Historical Data TABLES, but not in its charts). TICKERS produce adjusted-price charts (default), _TICKERS pr…
Probably some temporary M* issue.
In the meantime, use the M* old charts by replacing tickers in the URL. Single charts only, no Compare.
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US
Use Stockcharts to c…
With yield-curve inversion coming, one may see 3% 1-yr & 18-mo CDs BEFORE 3% 5-yr or 10-yr. The 2-yr T-Note is already at 2.68%, 3-yr T-Note at 2.84% (buy at Treasury Direct at auctions, or anytime at brokerages commission-free).
https://home.tr…
Futures have bounced off the overnight lows (SP500 3,856; Nasdaq 100 11,704). Click on chart icons in the links below.
SP500 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html
Nasdaq 100 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equ…
Did nothing today.
FWIW, 5/12/22 was worse for Nasdaq Comp, R2000, utilities, cryptos and those lows held. Today, 5/18/22, was worse for SP500, DJIA, DJ Transports (just creamed) and had new closing lows.
Unfortunately, MOVE blends various Treasuries in a "pot'. It would be better if there were targeted MOVEs, say, MOVE-10 for the most popular/important 10-yr, etc. But the "free" MOVE is a blend & EOD (not real-time). I don't know what refinement…
M* and fund sponsor website.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/schd/portfolio
https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/etfs/portfolio.asp?symbol=SCHD
From the SEC link,
".....Defendants reduced losses under a market crash scenario in one risk report sent to investors from negative 42.1505489755747% to negative 4.1505489755747% -- by simply dropping the single digit 2. In another example, defend…
There are no "safe" investments beyond CDs, I-Bonds, Treasuries (held to maturity), stable-value funds (in 401k/403b), m-mkt funds, etc, and even those may lose in real terms.
Stick with your investments that are suitable for your risk comfort lev…
Bottom calling is dangerous business. But there are several pointers for being closer to bottom - terrible sentiment, strange high VIX & low SKEW combo (there are discussions of this in the MFO AAII Sentiment threads of the last 2 weeks & el…
Do we wait for magazine covers to appear on this in these internet times? Or, some pieces like this from major brokerage houses are enough? This piece from Schwab isn't really gloomy (may be cautious?) but has a view that gloomy sentiment may be ove…
It is not unusual for active bond ETFs to make daily disclosures of holdings.
Hang up has been for active equity ETFs. They have gone through several iterations and in the most recent one, the SEC has approved several models for nontransparent act…
M* MIC-Chicago 2022 is Mon-Wed and expect many similar interviews in the next few days. These interviews are useful even when new insights are not offered. They tell us what fund managers are doing now. Risk is they are talking their book but that i…
Announcement of Jean Hynes as CEO was made in September 2020 and was to be effective in July 2021. VG Independent Advisor pulled the plug on VGHCX in December 2020. So, it was soon after the announcement but well before her start as CEO.
Thanks for pointing out VG Independent Advisor's past unfavorable view on VGHCX.
M* also notes underperformance since 2016 and that its foreign exposure is high at 25%+. Hynes has been comanager since 2008 and manager since 2013. M* still has (bac…
Factors to consider:
Old Fido 401k to new Fido 401k - typically, you would want to move from a poor plan to better plan. There may be minor differences still between the 2 Fido 401k, but they should be broadly similar. So, it's a wash.
Old Fido 40…
There are pre-market (before open) and after-market (after close) sessions. It is a VERY THIN/ILLIQUID market, so use limit-orders. Even reliable quotes are not available. These sessions don't mix with regular sessions, i.e. nothing carries over bet…
IMO, Elon Musk has found how little TWTR and TSLA stocks are valued as collateral by banks to round up financing (margin & other). He may now be trying to get the cash price of TWTR lowered by a few billions. I just checked the SEC/Edgar filings…
Shake down has started and I am not surprised. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/elon-musk-says-twitter-deal-on-hold-pending-details-on-fake-accounts.html
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-having-its-worst-year-ever-what-to-buy-instead-51652394644?mod=bol-social-tw
"(Bold for YBB emphasis) The heyday of the 60/40 portfolio, an allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, is over. Acc…
Most floating-rate/bank-loan (FR/BL) securities are low-rated, so they are a subclass of junk/HY. They may have long maturities but their durations are just their rate-reset intervals. Newer and speculative companies favor FR/BL (and convertibles) b…
Markets have several crosscurrents.
One debate is whether market is still too high by some valuation measures. With market down a lot already (Nasdaq Comp and R2000 in bear territory and SP500 approaching that) and AAII Sentiment so negative, I am …
Bitcoin crash continues....
Stablecoins are anything but "stable". First there was one that sank, now there is another that broke the buck. Private guarantees are not limitless. People didn't learn anything from pre-Fed and pre-FDIC experiences wit…
