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The link in my earlier post has been significantly updated.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/256/interactive-charts-newer-investor-portfolios?page=1&scrollTo=669
I updated a previous post with the Treasury TIPS announcement that came yesterday - repeated below. Brokerages will now allow order entry until early-morning of the auction on next Thursday.
Last time, I used Schwab and it took money out on the aft…
It was a leak that the Fed purposefully wanted, so there may not be internal/external investigations. But a guess I have seen in the media is that it may have come from Minnesota Fed president Neel Kashkari (nonvoting FOMC member now) to the WSJ rep…
@Ben, you have to click Launch Investor.
For now, when you access Portfolio from M* Homepage, the default is the old/legacy Portfolio page that will eventually go away. When you click Launch Investor, you are taken to the new M* Investor page that…
M* Investor (Replacing Old/Legacy M* Portfolios)
investor.morningstar.com/
I haven't explored the new M* Investor fully. But some comments.
1. I had stopped using the old Watch Lists because I couldn't add Notes there. There is a small headache in…
The fed fund rate was raised by +75 bps (+0.75%) to 1.50-1.75% range & more 50-75 bps increases are coming; the QT is continuing as previously announced. The interest paid on reserves held at the Fed are now 1.65%; the discount/primary rate is 1…
ECB follow up https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italian-bond-yields-dive-and-euro-climbs-as-ecb-announces-emergency-meeting-on-market-conditions-11655276116?siteid=yhoof2
Managed-futures funds are supposed to latch on to some trend, up or down, to make money. But as far as stocks/SP500 is concerned, PQTIX has been NEGATIVELY correlated. This is seen in the ratio chart of PQTIX:SPY; the bottom panels show PQTIX and SP…
5-Yr TIPS auction is next week Thursday. IMO, they are the next best to I-Bonds.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182
Real rates are up too and 5-yr real rate is 0.45%.
https://home.treasury.gov/resou…
Quarterly options expiry day has huge volumes. Unless there is some special news on that day, the trend of the week may just be magnified on Friday. So, Monday was BAD (somebody called yesterday the Crypto-Monday and we will see if that sticks), tod…
Shorter-term CDs have yet to catch up with T-Bills/Notes,
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206
#Volatility rose sharply across the board today.
SP500 $VIX 34.02 +22.59%
Nasdaq-100 $VXN 40.36 +18.81%
Bond $MOVE 139.21 +21.87%
Oil $OVX 47.56% +10.81%
But SP500 $SKEW was moderate at 124.14 +2.06%
#Cryptos crashed.
#Markets
That was UGLY!
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p30172872605
Substituting DJ Utilities for DJ Transports. Utilities have been better, but not if one added to them in April.
https://stockcharts.com/…
@hank, VIX is based on all near-term options (calls and puts).
You may be thinking of SKEW (that is in the bottom panels of my previous chart link and is EOD only) that is based on relative pricing of puts vs calls - it is high when puts are more …
VIX touched 39 in Jan, 38 in Feb. So, 40 is just a number.
Nasdaq 100 VXN touched 40 today (YTD hi was 44).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p67687948034
@hank, from my Summary, Part 1 yesterday,
COMMODITIES. That is the sound of falling LUMBER (recently $580 per 1,000/bd-ft; peak $1,711 in 05/2021) from weakening housing demand, rising mortgage rates and lumber mills running at full capacity. New h…
Yes, CPI, or CPI-U. It seems that I can still edit the OP. Thanks.
BTW, I posted on the upcoming TIPS auction here,
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/150182/#Comment_150182
The captain obvious explanations are not needed for me. I know them. I have heard them. I view them as more lies told by the regulators/politicians.
Between Jan 2010 - May 2022, the price level has increased 35%. Since Jan 2000, a 73% increa…
The rationale for targeting a small positive inflation, e.g. +2%, is that there is some uncertainty and the governments want to avoid deflation at all costs. So, they target +2% but then also miss sometimes, and we then get slowdowns/recessions/defl…
The Fed flipping to easing in Q4 seems too optimistic. Something terrible would have to happen to the bond market and economy for that to happen. The Fed doesn't care much about stocks and probably not at all about cryptos.
There are some interesti…
CPI report was BAD. CME Fedwatch is now for 50-50-50-25-25 bps with December range 3.00-3.25%. FORGET September pause.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Indexes are approaching May low test levels (except R2000/IWM that is still well above).
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p07577548093
Krane has several China and Asia related funds (OEFs, ETFs). KUAIX was launched on 6/15/21, so barely a yr old and has AUM of only $1.4 million. It seems to be the only mutual fund in Krane lineup that is mostly ETFs. I also see several Krane ETFs u…
There isn't much AUM at launch and PGIM hasn't seeded it with its own capital, so the ERs look huge but are capped. I have seen high but capped ERs at launches but not this high.
Alternative ways to launch funds are 1) use seed capital from the fi…
Well, NightShares is part of AlphaTrAI, which is run by Analytics Ventures. So, the organizational layers (CAKE) are there and all they need is COFFEE (-:).
https://www.alphatrai.com/
https://www.analyticsventures.com/ai-startups/
Fund objectives/strategies are not fundamental and can be changed just by 60-day notice.
If this ETF ever grows into multi-billion AUM, it may face regulatory constraints. A recent example of that was futures-based oil/WTI USO that was forced to ch…
VIX is hardly low. VIX of 19+ implies daily volatility of +/- 1%+ (lot) and we are seeing high daily volatility. But SKEW is low indeed. So, we have high fear gauge but investors are not rushing to buy puts to hedge. VIX during crisis is much higher…
The NEXT 50-bps is baked in. What has been in the media are speculations of how many MORE 50-bps hikes to come, whether there may be a September PAUSE, whether a shift from +2% average TARGET to around +4% average target (even temporary) may affect …
T-Bills, 2-yr T-Notes and 5-yr TIPS are all good now. They do different things. I notice that many posters are too stuck with funds when sometimes directly accessing the underlying product may be better - now is such a time (with a rapidly changing …
This may be PC &/or browser dependent. On my PC it works only for 1 magnification setting for 3 browsers mentioned. And after setting the dates, I could reduce the magnification & the dates stuck. Also, @msf noted that this trick didn't work…
Another test with another ticker, VFIAX. In my browsers , date windows appear only at 170-175% browser magnification (Chrome 175%,Edge 175%, Firefox 170% ), but once set, they stick. Date windows disappear for lower AND higher magnifications. So, th…
@shipwreckedandalone, EUREKA!
I didn't notice it before. It seems that the date windows appear on HIGH browser magnifications (175%+) and are editable!
