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Powell mentions current PCE & CPI only a couple of times, but referred to inflation-expectations several times.
Inflation-Expectations = Nominal Treasury Yield - TIPS Yield.
TIPS yield is also the real yield for the Treasury.
Media often refe…
I think real rates as in TIPS yields. They have risen across the board already but may go even higher.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_…
Thanks, Yogi- I hadn't looked at that at Schwab... I'll be checking that out. How does one participate in the auctions?
OJ
I outlined the process for TIPS in the link below, but the procedure is very similar for other Treasuries.
https://ybbpersonal…
@Old_Joe, Treasuries can be bought commission-free at auctions or in the secondary market at major brokerages.
Only I-Bonds are limited to Treasury Direct.
Notes from above & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference
Rates: Fed funds +75bps to 3.00-3.25% & more hikes to come; for reserve balances 3.15%; discount rate 3.25%. Real rates to rise across the board. Further +100 to +125 bps rise in fed fu…
@johnN, for buying Treasuries to be held to maturities, "too high" (for yield) doesn't matter. The rate is locked in at purchase.
BTW, prices this year are down for Treasury "funds". https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SHY&compare=IEF,TLT&…
I'm trying to figure out what the allure here is for Treasuries versus a CD. What am I missing? Looking this morning in Schwab, one year for both is 4% . I have a CD maturing in a couple days and I'm wondering why people are choosing the bond over C…
This is an interim report on mutual fund to brokerage transitions (4 IRAs, 1 Trust).
The IRAs transferred easily and automatically for my wife and I. Both T-IRA and R-IRA transitioned together. All personal info transferred except one secondary pho…
These confidence scams are more complex & elaborate than the old millions-waiting-email scams, your-bank-is-calling spoofs, click-bait scams/phishing, check-washing scams.
Not picking up unknown calls, not clicking on any link in emails/texts/W…
To feel better, look at last 3 months - NOT bad! If this continues for just 2 more weeks, the Q3 statements could be encouraging. Reason is simple - we are still a few % above the mid-June lows. Of course, things can get ugly in 2 weeks too.
https:/…
For those interested in buying Treasuries at auctions,
26-week and shorter are every week.
Next 1-yr/52-week on 10/4/22 (Tu), 11/1/22 (Tu), etc
Next 2-year on 9/26/22 (M), 10/25/22 (Tu), etc
Next 5-year TIPS on 10/20/22 (Th), 12/22/22 (Th), etc
…
@hank, this is the Barron's 11/30/20 piece on BAMBX,
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-2-9b-alternative-fund-that-actually-works-51606264740?mod=past_editions
A quick look: BAMBX cash levels reported by Yahoo, M*, Fido seem high but BlackRock doesn't report much cash. Discrepancy may be due to its nature - M* says that 50% of the portfolio is long and the rest market-neutral or long-short. So, that may be…
Friday was a strange triple-witching (options) day. Markets were down more intraday but some sectors recovered by the close. Cyclicals and SCs remained under pressure, and of course, transportation were the worst (blame FDX).
My watch list of moder…
Well-timed reopening!
Current Barron's has a feature Alger Mid Cap Focus. Amy Zhang manages that AND Alger Small Cap Focus.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/top-mid-cap-manager-tech-stocks-51663347771?mod=past_editions
My mortgage in late-1970s was at 10.75%. Those were different times. Real estate cap rates were quite high then. Valuations now are much higher for everything. Even the T-Bills are approaching the cap rate, thanks to the Fed, Twitter LINK.
@johnN, while Stockcharts shows RSI(14) for $UST2Y, etc, it isn't really important. You are locking in yield at purchase to maturity, and for ST (up to 5 yrs), you can just hold on to maturity. See a nearby thread on $UST1Y at 4%.
https://pbs.twimg.…
In the -$95 billion/mo QT (full level starting mid-September), -$60 billion/mo in Treasuries can just roll-off, but -$35 billion/mo in MBS may not be from roll-off alone, so the Fed may actually have to sell MBS. The mortgage rates are already above…
Schwab fund AUM is $610 billion, decent but not huge. Schwab has hesitated in growing its fund business so as not to be in conflict with its RIA platform. It has focused on indexed and differentiated fund products (fundamental-funds, etc).
Schwab B…
@larryB, individual TIPS held to maturity (at brokerages or Treasury Direct) should follow the CPI ($$CPI) less the premium/discount at purchase. TIPS mutual funds have many other drivers; in the chart, ST STIP and VTIP are almost indistinguishable…
I replaced AB with SCHW (free Stockcharts display limit is 5 tickers) but kept 1 yr (any other timeframe later defaults to 1 yr).
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SCHW&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p54544772817
ETFs IYG, IAI don't have much exposure to fund-stocks. Here are 5 fund-stocks AB, BEN, BLK, IVZ, TROW and TROW is not doing well in this group.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=AB&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p36589705458
@yogibearbull : Are you telling me that Chuck has more that a few loose ends to tie up from TD A. ? I must have missed USAA brokerage dealings. when did that happen?
Thanks, Derf
USAA is going back to basi…
@Sven, for example WGROX,
M* Performance tab has inflows/outflows (all classes) under the graph, https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wgrox/performance
Fido Performance & Risk tab has class AUM history, https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mu…
ETFs IYG (financial services) and IAI (brokers-dealers) have several brokers.
Price/TROW is doing much worse than more diversified brokers-dealers/fin-svcs.
Schwab/SCHW has to yet digest TD Ameritrade and brokerage parts of USAA. It may not buy a…
Bearish sentiment is still very high, 1.57*SD above average. But less extreme than last week when it reached 2.32*SD above average. Overall, still very negative.
Fed fund futures traders have the following probabilities: 74% for 75-bps, 26% for 100-bps (1%). Probabilities for 100-bps were 0 just a few days ago.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
There is a last minute deal to avoid damaging RR strike,
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/president-joe-biden-says-tentative-railway-labor-agreement-reached.html
A contract issue is the on-call requirement on off-duty days. This WP article has details - I could read it but it may be behind paywall. There are other industries/professions with on-call requirements that may serve as models. It seems that 3 of t…
So, there are funds beyond Nuveen/TIAA - from Price, Vanguard, etc.
I am fairly sure now that Schwab a found a bug in its internal cost-basis system, i.e. average cost-basis for mutual funds (default). Funds mentioned SO FAR are bond funds.
Reme…
We are approaching September 6 levels. That was just a week+ ago.
1-day decline is the worst since mid-2020.
It was 95% down-volume day.
See major indexes since 1/3/22, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&…
CPI, PPI
Well, stocks flipped down sharply on lower CPI (but higher than expected), but higher core CPI. It seems some volatile part of the CPI is creeping into the core part.
Treasury yields are flying, with 2-yr at 3.73%,
https://www.cnbc.com/…
It is irritating. May be comical?
Schwab has issued ANOTHER corrected 1099 in September involving the SAME short-term muni fund FLTDX from Nuveen/TIAA. Again, the changes are for transactional CGs (ST, LT), and not in reported income or CG distribu…
Harbor hung on to its tiny m-mkt fund (about $90 million AUM) all through ZIRP and other crises (inception was 12/1987). But now that things are looking better for m-mkts, it decided to shut it. I looked for some rationale in the news but didn't fin…
