Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
More Genesis news, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/11/16/genesis-crypto-lending-unit-is-halting-customer-withdrawals-in-wake-of-ftx-collapse/
Gemini is also pausing some withdrawals, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ftx-latest-regulators-disc…
Verification may come from satellites passing over that area, or geosynchronous satellite, if over that area. This may take hours/days and the info may not even be released. There is already confusion over the debris.
Lot of speculations. From gas explosion to truck explosion to the remnants of a Russian missile shot & deflected by Ukraine.
Almost everybody is at G20 in Bali, Indonesia to resolve this there or fight it out.
PPI (wholesale) came below expectations at 8.0% y-o-y. Stock futures like the news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-october-less-than-expected-as-inflation-eases.html
Canadian BNN is owned by Bell Media (owned by BCE). Since 2018, BNN became BNN Bloomberg through licensing & partnership with the US Bloomberg. BNN Bloomberg develops most of its own Canadian content but also carries many Bloomberg stories.
htt…
@Roy, simple explanations can be dangerous. But even with that risk, let me try.
Tokens are like prepaid store cards or chips on cruises/casinos. There are hundreds of unregulated crypto exchanges and most have their own tokens. That is what FTT wa…
SBF is/was very good at exploiting connections, real/imagined/implied. His parents are lawyers and/or political fund raisers (one CNBC regular fell for just that). His educational connections are also intriguing - the same place where the SEC Chair …
NBC is now calling the Senate for Democrats. Only the GA runoff on Dec 6 remains and NBC thinks that Democrat Warnock will win that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/midterm-senate-elections-2022-democrats-keep-majority.html
Charlie Bilello also provides good and free info on Twitter. I have posted several tables/charts from him. They don't show up on MFO search because his name is within the links, often on the tables/charts themselves. One example is this post,
https:…
CRYPTO Intrigue and Crash. It started with a Twitter spat between Sam Bankman-Fried “SBF”/FTX and Changpeng Zhao “CZ”/Binance. There were prior frictions from SBF’s closeness to the DC lawmakers, his push for a crypto legislation that was disliked b…
Yes, most federal protections of 401k/403b carryover to their rollovers to T-IRAs. Some lawyerly type posters have argued that the courts/judges/lawyers can sort out funds within a mixed/tainted T-IRA, but then there is the risk that entire T-IRA ca…
There are good reasons to keep all 401k/403b rollovers into a separate T-IRA. It is OK to have all rollovers into one T-IRA. But putting them in T-IRAs with personal contributions can lead to complications in bankruptcy or lawsuits.
Basically, wide…
Giroux's recent reduction in his GE position may have been well timed (or not). GE has done fine lately with the rebound in cyclicals.
IMO, with the Nasdaq and crypto crashes (and money just vanishing like poof), investors may be shifting to more …
@AndyJ, FRED also has a chart on month-over-month changes in the CPI and that series is more noisy. But recent reductions are noticeable (your 4 data points can be verified).
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Wj6y
CME FedWatch now is showing 50-25-25-25 to 5.00-5.25% in mid-2023.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
52-wk T-Bill (EOD) 4.59% (also the peak of the yield-curve).
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-c…
FRED CPI y-o-y data show that the CPI peaked in June and the latest report just confirms the downtrend. Component analyses point to high diesel/heating oil prices and related (e.g. commercial transportation) to be the lingering cause of inflation. T…
Binance walked away from FTX. Situation was hopeless after due diligence - customer funds were mishandled; the regulators looking into FTX.
Former billionaire (just a couple of days ago) SBF is reportedly bankrupt.
It is surprising that in this day and age, what happened could happen. Binance and FTX had a spat. CZ/Binance attacked SBF/FTX, threatened to liquidate holdings of FTX token FTT, caused a crisis of confidence in FTX and sort of a run on FTX. Then B…
Bassman is suggesting that with bond volatility MOVE high, the short-term MBS tranches (structured securities) are good deals now due to their high spreads (over Treasuries).
He also likes mREITs, highly leveraged pools of mortgage securities.
Rem…
Instead of being selective for TLH, it is better to maximize TLH and not let the opportunity slip by. Yes, some of the losses would be used up from gains in those (and other) positions when markets rebound. In some cases, different things may have b…
@TheShadow, interesting about large CG distributions for SSGA index funds:
SP500 Index (Class N) SVSPX 7.51-8.30% (Classes A, I, K have much lower CG distributions; these must be for a different series/pool)
Hedged International Developed Index (cl…
@Crash, I buy only I-Bonds at Treasury Direct (TD).
I buy Treasuries in brokerage a/c at Fido, Schwab, and now also at Vanguard (now that it forced me to switch).
There is an additional issue with buying Treasuries at TD - you cannot sell them be…
Set up 52-wk T-Bill ladder by buying 13-wk, 26-wk, 39-wk, 52-wk all in the secondary market.
Or, near the month end, buy 13-wk, 26-wk, 52-wk at Treasury Auctions & 39-wk in the secondary market.
As each matures, roll into 52-wk T-Bill.
Cashfl…
@TheShadow, that is a long but good list. I scanned it for "stories" - index funds and funds-of-funds (typically of index funds) with large CG distributions. Index funds with large redemptions can have this problem. I wasn't disappointed.
Fido Real …
Yesterday, CME FedWatch wasn’t updated fully. Today, it is showing hikes of 50-50-25-25 (and moving around that) to the fed fund terminal rate of 5.25-5.50%. This is BAD news for both stocks and bonds (as if things weren’t bad already. Good seasonal…
Interesting that Powell mentioned that the Fed prefers to watch 3mo-18mo yield spread. That is a nonstandard spread vs those used in media (3m-10y, 2y-10y, etc).
Does this mean that only those who purchase after Oct 31, 2022 get the benefit of the 41 bp fixed rate addition? The rest of us get only 6.48%.
Yep! The fixed rate at purchase remains forever (well, 30 years).
That fixed/base rate is low at 0.40%, IMO. The 5-yr TIPS/real rate is 1.60%. The 5-yr TIPS looking a better deal (next auction 12/22/22; buy anytime in the secondary market).
It is a different channel with different pricing/promos. Brokerage CDs are expensive (when you factor in invisible platform fees of 0.35-0.50%; your quotes are net) but fast way to raise deposits. Many lesser known banks use them and the FDIC and th…
Legally, only Vanguard ETFs can be classes (twins) of Vanguard OEFs. Others may use similar names and may point to manager overlaps to have cousins/clones. VG patent is expiring soon, so others may follow, or not bother.
Strange that JPMorgan doesn…
I picked out 5 representative samples to plot,
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=IEF&compare=AGG,HYG,LQD,TIP&id=p78281312714
However, the CME FedWatch, based on the fed fund futures market, shows 75, 50, 50 bps hikes ahead at Nov, Dec, Fe…
