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Anyone can come up with a model.
The SEC is only concerned with listed funds and no game playing is allowed with those.
So, if a model is based on listed funds, I am not sure if much tinkering with performance is possible. There is some wiggle roo…
@ravitz, broad-based ETFs like VOO, VTI are fine. But smaller and specialized VG ETFs may have the same CG distribution issues as its mutual funds (if heavy redemptions).
Vanguard made the mistake of not licensing its "ETF class of funds" patents to anyone. By now, this idea is quite stale. Vanguard itself has launched some self-standing ETFs in the US, and in Europe, most of its ETFs are self-standing. The Australia…
No access to NYT.
But hybrid annuity + LTCI and life insurance + LTCI are interesting newer developments. Unfortunately, the LTCI riders cannot be just added to existing annuities and/or insurance. And that may be a problem for those with existing c…
Most firms send their advice/alerts to their preferred clients first, and then excerpts to media/public a few days later.
BTW, many think-tanks and research firms (technical, social, political) do the same. At many firms, nothing can go out until …
Wholesale inflation PPI came in hotter than expected. See that "wrong way" tick? In general, what happens for wholesale inflation eventually trickles down to retail inflation CPI (and Fed's favorite PCE). On this unexpected bad news, futures turned …
BTW, Apple/AAPL doesn't seem to be a holding of Schwab ETF SCHD. So, don't buy it for checks from Tim Cook. https://www.schwab.wallst.com/Prospect/Research/etfs/portfolio.asp?symbol=schd
The bull case for TIPS goes something like this. Max real rate ranges have been,
5-Yr TIPS -1.87% to +4.24%, current +1.49%
10-Yr TIPS -1.10% to +3.06%, current +1.41%
So, IF one assumes that in the current environment the real rates are peaking …
M* Instant X-Ray with a portfolio of 50% SCHD, 50% SPY will also show overlaps/nonoverlaps for larger holdings. https://www.morningstar.com/instant-x-ray
https://i.ibb.co/VtFSfBv/Screenshot-2023-02-15-10-02-14.png
@Crash. I have been favoring only 5-yr TIPS, not TIPS funds (ST or IT/LT). The idea is to capture CPI approximately, see chart below - I don't know why the StockCharts hasn't updated CPI for January in comparison charts (it has in separate CPI chart…
Thanks for the FinViz VIX chart. But mine from StockCharts looks different. It shows 1/24/22 high of 38.94.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p89899821759
SP500 daily volatility is +/- 1% (VIX/19). IMO, people have just become comfortable with high VIX. It peaked at 39 in early-2022 but crash-watchers have been looking for VIX of 45. It may not reach that level in this cycle.
BAD news!
VPGDX has already gone through major changes. I thought that its current multi-sector form was a stable competitor to Fido multi-sector FMSDX. But VG keeps playing games with this $1.2 billion AUM fund. I recently went into it in a big wa…
I-Bonds use 6-mo change in unadjusted CPI for their May 1 & November 1 announcements. That is definitely collapsing on May 1.
TIPS use monthly CPI changes with 2-mo lag. How is that looking now?
I am definitely skipping I-Bonds, but I am stil…
Global hybrids are difficult to find. Two good ones are SGENX & TIBAX, both no-load/NTF at Fido & Schwab. TIBAX also has an unleveraged CEF cousin TBLD that can be bought anywhere.
BTW, Fido used to have a global-balanced fund but it was di…
Same manager since 1997.
Gold-mining has been terrible for B&H and being top performer in category for 3,5,10 years doesn't mean much. * ratings are based on past performance only within the category, and overall * rating is a weighted average …
@catch22, thanks for showing full StockCharts search on "VIX".
So, I NOW see Stockcharts symbols for VIX for 9 days $VXST, 3 months $VXV, 6 months $VXMT (none for 1 year).
StockCharts also has MORE data. Here are the charts for $VXV and $VIX, and …
There are already VIX for 9 days (VIX9D), 3 mo (VIX3M), 6 mo (VIX6M), 1 yr (VIX1Y).
Just as the regular VIX (for 30 days) uses SP500 options that bracket 30 days +/- 7 days, VIX9D brackets 9 days options (unclear by how many days +/-).
These symb…
Article has a Good explanation of 0DTE; there are 1DTE,..., NDTE, etc too. There is nothing new here as all options near expiry will go through these phases. But no-commission trading makes this trading possible for retail (in the old days, $5-10 co…
I haven't done full research on it (yet), but I don't think that the term flash-crash or mini-crash was around in 1987. These last from minutes to hours on a single-day. The Big one was in May 2010 and there were several subsequently too. Then, the …
SP500 4,100 was an important level. Market has to be comfortable there, and so far in Feb, all closings have been above 4,100 (although it has been breached intraday). Then, the next hill is at 4,325.
You may have seen nearby that the AAII Bull-Bea…
Powell has said that he watches 3m-18m spread (close is readily available 3m-2y spread) & those have been clearly inverted since December 2022.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y-$UST3M&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&am…
I have AARP membership.
BTW, if one still has AOL, one can get AARP membership free as a benefit.
I also have AARP/Hartford/Trumbull auto insurance and being AARP member is a condition. I hear that after the initial signup, Hartford doesn't reall…
TIAA annuities within 403b are low-cost. For example, CREF Stock VA has all-in ER of 0.23% only (AUM $112 billion). Post-retirement, money can remain as-is in TIAA Traditional (like SV; current crediting rate 6.00%) and TIAA and CREF VAs, but can al…
@msf, K&LGates link is a good in that it collects various IRA related changes by Secure 2.0.
I think that QLAC, being DIA from retirement accounts, solved one RMD issue in 2014; prior to 2014 change, the DIAs from retirement accounts involved c…
Be aware that Powell used the term disinflation for the first time (for him) at the post-FOMC presser. It created some confusion in the markets and today he clarified that it also means lessening of inflation. This is what happens when people watch …
Also, when you hear Fed's open-mouths in the news, keep in mind that Bostic (Atlanta Fed) is NOT a voting member of FOMC in 2023.
Voting Fed Prez in 2023 are Goolsbee (Chicago), Harker (Philly), Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas). There is an an…
I have also read that Powell was added LATE to the agenda of Economic Club in DC, and the purpose is to CORRCT some impressions - intended or unintended - at the last FOMC presser. So, the above + his WRONG comment about financial conditions that he…
@TheShadow, thanks for DoubleLine finds.
Filing shows 2 ETFs - DL CRE ETF (debt) and DL Mortgage ETF (also debt). Both are active and with some leverage (unspecified % or limits, but "borrowing" is mentioned a lot). IMO, DL CRE ETF name may be mis…
Real estate funds have been mentioned recently in monthly commentaries by @Devo, @msf, @David_Snowball, and possibly others.
@Mark, additional amounts are optional. But they are allowed monthly.
This should be treated as news of interest to some.
…
Well, Barron's had to compromise, now being "online". It now wants to be relevant DURING the week and also have BREAKING news online. The old way was to just wait for the weekend issue.
This went through an earlier iteration (that I hated) when Bar…
