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Tariffs will apply to gold shipments of large sizes - 100 troy oz and 1 kilo (32,150.75 troy oz) gold bars.
There is another complication in global trading of gold. Standard sizes vary by locations (NYC, London, Dubai, China, Switzerland), so it is…
News is that the Executive Order allowing private-equity, real estate and cryptos in 401k is coming today. I don't see anything on Whitehouse.gov yet.
https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-trump-executive-order-crypto-private-equity-401-pl…
check out TF's chart for HOSIX vs Morningstar's or stockchart's. according to TF it still hasn't recovered from an April decline and is showing a current ytd gain of about .8% with no new highs where every other place has it at 3.71% with monthly n…
Goldman Sachs/GS now views its excursions into retail banking/brokerage as missteps. So, keep an eye on what happens with Marcus.
Marcus robo-adviosor was sold to Betterment. GS has been curtailing moves in credit cards (GM card - new deal with Ba…
These software use geometric averaging of returns. So, if period returns (daily, weekly, monthly) are d1, d2, d3,....,dn, then total-return (TR) is,
TR = (d1*d2*d3*......*dn)^(1/n).
For 30 years, with monthly returns, n = 30*12 = 360 only, for dai…
I don't think it can be done so early. As you have noted, there is no pattern seen from past history. Many funds with high % of retirement a/c don't manage the fund at all for CGs - Fido, etc. As the funds are allowed to close books for the year at …
@Observant1, because TestFol uses DAILY return data, it will capture more volatility, so, Drawdown & SD would be HIGHER; Sharpe Ratio & Sortino Ratio LOWER.
When monthly returns are used (PV, MFO, M*), there is smoothing of data that won't …
All except Morningstar are very responsive to comments/suggestions. Some charge for email support, so clearly indicate if you are reporting errors or making suggestions for improvements.
check out TF's chart for HOSIX vs Morningstar's or stockchart's. according to TF it still hasn't recovered from an April decline and is showing a current ytd gain of about .8% with no new highs where every other place has it at 3.71% with monthly n…
@equalizer, I have compared the results of PV and TestFol and they seem to be close. I don't know how you timed their responses, but both seem fast.
@linter, can you be more specific? Both TestFol and PV account for reinvestments of distributions. …
@gman57, yes, I have a theory. Many typos just hide in plain view and reveal themselves only after making copies or posting. It must be some law of nature!
Fido K-class is typically the lowest ER class available in 401k/403b/457. Count yourself lucky for FOCKX.
FOCPX is generally available for Fido a/c.
FOTDX and FOTEX are through advisor channels - advisors have to be paid and there are breaks on load…
Remember that Fed (7) and FOMC (7+5=12) were full until today. And Powell didn't say whether he will leave as Fed Governor after his Fed Chair term ends in 05/2026.
Kugler vacancy provides for nominating a potential future Fed Chair as Fed Governo…
That's a good feature on Greg Davis too. It seems that he isn't bitter - he was the internal candidate for the CEO job and was believed to have an edge until Salim Ramji appeared. Greg Davis is Vanguard President and CIO and he looks OK with that.
Powell was cautious in answering questions related to tariffs, but he held that they are contributing some to inflation now, may be more later. This is different from Administration's narrative on tariffs.
I think he was ready with that example too…
Post-FOMC Notes
Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40% (generous), discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo. Vote was 9 yes, 2 no (Bowman, Waller), 0 abstain, 1 absent (Kugler…
There are multiple red flags - margin debt, Buffett Indicator (Stock Market-Value/GDP), top 10 as % of SP500, US market-cap as % of global market-cap, etc. But this time maybe different, or many think so.
Investors should be wary of giving discretion to their brokers or financial advisors.
Double that for futuristic AI-Advisors.
The best I can see is to use AI financial tools to generate alerts that I can review & then decide to do something or n…
Very interesting.
Once banks & brokerages get involved with cryptos, other crypto regulations may come sooner.
Note that Coinbase/COIN is a combo crypto operation: exchange + broker-dealer + custodian for cryptos. This is something NOT allowed…
A potential Fed Chair candidate WARSH has also suggested full review of the Fed/FOMC and revocation of the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord. That's another way of saying forget about the notion of an independent Fed and that the Fed is no different than oth…
Many sources are reporting that the forthcoming Executive Order on 401k will allow private-equity, gold and cryptos. I don't see anything yet on https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
A whole bunch of crypto stuff is mentioned including investing in other crypto ETFs. It's unclear what it adds beyond several crypto ETFs already offered by ARK - spot-Bitcoin ARKB; other ETFs with crypto futures and companies - ARKA, ARKD, ARKZ.
N…
There are 4 FOMC meetings left in 2025 - July, September, October, December. Market expectations are for 2 cuts - September & December according to CME FedWatch. That's a total cut of -0.50% (not anywhere close to -3%). July FOMC may have a spli…
@Charles, a government-issued digital-dollar (with implied guarantees from Uncle Sam) would be seen by the crypto industry as conflicting with lucrative and profitable private-issue stablecoin operations.
You can see this in FDIC-insured money-ma…
@Derf, you have to wait for what may come.
After all, there are gold-ATMs in Asia and the Middle East. There are some in the US too,
https://goldatm.com/locations/
Can crypto-ATMs be behind?
Actually, there are many already. Find US crypto-ATMs h…
@WABAC, if you look at Tether quotes for ALL times at CNBC, Tether got badly un-tethered in 2014, but has been quite stable around 1.00 since 2020.
Unfortunately, some other stablecoins didn't fare as well in the unregulated environment and many p…
@lynnbolin2021, that is a good angle.
For many in Asia, Africa, Middle East, and elsewhere, where there are many restrictions on currencies, and holding dollar (or other hard-currency assets) is almost impossible, suddenly, there are dollar-asset-…
One concern had been about:
"Prioritizing stablecoin holders in insolvency: In bankruptcy, holders of permitted payment stablecoins have priority over other claims regarding reserve assets."
A casual reading may mean that if a bank is involved wit…
Under the GENIUS Act that is the 1st US crypto law, stablecoins will require backing with collateral - T-Bills/Notes, CDs, etc. That would support their dollar pegs, which would still be on a best-efforts basis. So, if the stablecoin sponsor goes ba…
When the amount of claim is not much above the policy deduction, it's pointless to file the claim.
BUT don't call the insurer to ask whether to file a claim. A friend did just that and was told that would be recorded as an insurance "incident" whe…
I have seen reports that there is one Executive Order coming to allow private-equity in 401k and another to just call soccer football (may be the other could be called American football).
AAIB report mentions that the investigative team does include an aviation psychologist.
Air India has countered media reports of medical leaves by Sr Captain Sabharwal (56 yr old) - he took some leave when his mother passed away in 2022 and also to…
