Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Jobs report today, Good Friday was within expectations. Futures and cryptos aren't showing any reaction.
Of course, the next BIG news will be CPI on Wednesday that will also nearly determine the next I-Bond rate on May 1 (expected 3-4% only vs cur…
Both gold-miners (majors GDX, majors/minors GDXJ) and gold bullion (GLD, lower ER IAU) peaked in July 2020; another attempt was in early-2022.
Now, gold is approaching those highs, but gold-miners are still far from those highs. Chart shows GDX and…
OSTIX is really a conservatively run HY fund. M* in fact classifies it as such. Strategic in its name may give people impression that it is multi, but Carl Kaufman is a HY specialist and stays mostly in the HY area.
Another conservatively run HY is…
I could login OK just now.
I think they were off for maintenance for a while on Sunday - of course, no notice was posted. But I could login on Monday too.
Spinoff will be Power-Vernova in early-2024. Then the residual will be aviation to be just called GE.
So, by 2024, Old GE = New aviation GE + healthcare GEHC + Power-Vernova
Giroux just moved GE from his Top 5, even Top 10, but GE +GEHC (spinoff) combo still had the weight of 1.84% of AUM on 12/31/22. So, that was down from 2.00-2.25% of AUM earlier (Edit: GE topped at 4.7% of AUM in early-2022) . I think that he will s…
Japan's Sakhalin exception was done LAST YEAR while formulating the oil price-cap policy, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/11/b7ea9d8ec6d2-us-excludes-oil-for-japan-from-russias-sakhalin-2-from-price-cap.html
The NEW price-cap exception for…
I read that Saudis were hoping that the US will start ordering oil to refill its alarmingly low SPR when oil prices fell. When that didn't happen, the Saudis also went along with OPEC/OPEC+ production cuts to support global oil prices. Of course, th…
@Crash, TIPS use (unadjusted) CPI with 2-mo lag. Treasury publishes detailed TIPS index tables that look confusing until one figures out this 2-mo lag. The monthly (unadjusted) CPI changes are at FRED, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=128qr
That may be coincidence as Thrivent also has a conservative allocation fund with ticker TCAIX (note similarity with TCAF). But I have checked and, as far as I can see, Thrivent ALLOCATION fund team doesn't have any Price connection(s).
I see that @…
M* does show PRWCX status as "Limited". It is closed to new investors but open to existing investors; I have also read that people may transfer 401k/403b into PRWCX at Price.
Ticker for forthcoming PRWCX cousin ETF will be TCAF.
Retail investors may not have the fortitude to hang on to 30-yr TIPS. But IMO, holding 5-yr TIPS to maturity and rolling them over (and laddering) should work fine too to approximately capture the CPI. The real-yields (TIPS yields) have been in +/- …
@msf, in the past, I have gotten those Fido emails on fund closings & openings on Fridays. But not this time; I just checked my Spam too, nothing there. I will check my Fido Settings to see if some have changed.
So, when got the trade alert on …
M* has now become even more confusing. Articles at main home morningstar.com should be open (as in the OP Link), but those at investor.morningstar.com may require M* Investor subscription (even if the same article is posted there).
These are the p…
TIAA Traditional is indeed an annuity product.
But what you quoted applies only to the annuitized payouts, not for accumulations.
For TIAA Traditional accumulations (savings), the restricted RC and RA allow withdrawals only over several years. But…
Stable-value (SV) funds are available in several workplace 401k/403b plans. Among the 2 largest are TIAA Traditional and Federal TSP G Fund. There are also various flavors of TIAA Traditional. These rates are revised monthly and I have been tracking…
I saw that on Twitter. But +20% from the recent lows applies only to Nasdaq 100 QQQ/$NDX from the late-December lows, and not to Nasdaq Comp ONEQ/$COMPQ. Other major indexes had their lows in October and are still struggling.
Ed Yardeni, neither a …
There was only 1 type of m-mkt fund during the GFC 2008.
The Fed then started unlimited insurance for m-mkt funds for 10 bps fees from 2008-10. After some resistance from big players, all complied.
From the lessons learned, m-mkt reforms of 2014/1…
BTW, now that SVB and Signature banks have been acquired by other banks, the normal FDIC coverages have resumed. So, the unlimited coverage applied for days while the Fed was operating them. Of course, under the new bank ownerships, there is no reas…
@msf, I count Silvergate Bank under voluntary liquidation in my 3 failed US banks, although it doesn't make the formal lists of failed banks. SI is still trading as a shadow of its former self. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SI?p=SI&.tsrc=fin-…
@Devo, I don't have the detailed data for CRE debt (rate or maturity schedules).
But the problem isn't limited to the CRE debt, it also applies to the CRE properties. Some prospectuses that I have read allow for infrequent property valuations, or j…
Insurance companies do use neighborhood (ZIP Codes) or geographical data.
So, if you drive "Chevy Spark" in a neighborhood where residents have expensive cars, or have high accident rates, or there are more thefts, then the insurance rates may go u…
A MFO search on "QCD" shows several mentions. People handle charitable activities in different ways - QCDs, DAFs, direct contributions. Some are completely private about it, and not everyone can afford to do them either.
Credit unions (NCUA insured…
I remember those headlines. The headlines may be the worst when 10-yr rolling-returns are poor, but that would have been a great time to buy, or at least to hold on (for those who stuck with it up to that point. Below is a weekly StockCharts 1990- …
There are posts on TwitterLINK that FCNCA got a really FANTASTIC deal - see image below with annotations on red by a poster. May be the FDIC just got frustrated and was in a hurry do this deal.
There are reports on Twitter LINK that CNBC has removed the 5-yr CDS data for several major US banks. These had tickers of "nameCD5 (for 5-yr CDS)", so for JPM, that would be JPMCD5 (now 0 results).
The apparent rationale seemed to be that this so…
@Derf, this concept of forward rates works best for 2 bonds with the maturity of the 2nd just the double of the 1st. Otherwise, there are too many variables and assumptions. So, it will work for 2-yr Note (3.76%) and 4-yr Note (3.40% ?).
So, the ke…
@Derf, there is this interesting calculation for whether to
(i) buy 1-yr around 4.32% now and roll into another 1-yr on maturity (03/2024)
vs
(ii) buy 2-yr around 3.76% now.
You will be AHEAD with (i) if the rate for 1-yr in 03/2024 is MORE than…
If you read the panic-news, Schwab/SCHW 5-yr CDS have about "tripled" to 120s (from 40s), but that (absolute) level still isn't concerning. Credit Suisse CDS near the end were 300s (of course, they also crossed 120s at some point). These are in bps.…
There are some other value-oriented ETFs that are also transparent (w/daily disclosures). Thinking is that this category has been unpopular for a long time and the dangers of frontrunning may be small.
The filing indicated only annual distributions…
Kilbride may be around 60 - not that old. He has high positions at Wellington Management (WM) - Partner, Managing Director (MD), portfolio manager. Vanguard has setup a smaller, similar and more concentrated fund for him - VADGX, AUM $318.1 million,…
Look at Fido experience that has active ETF cousins for several of its famous funds (stock & bond). So, FMAG (ER 0.59%), the ETF cousin of storied FMAGX (note ticker similarity), has only $42 million since 2/2/21 inception.
Most of the ETF tra…
From filing to launch could be a few months. These look to be straightforward active and TRANSPARENT ETFs, so nothing controversial about tricky ways to be nontransparent or semi-transparent.
There is a filing for several active Price ETFs, including TCAF (although 80%+ equity; ER 0.31% only) to be managed by Giroux (PRWCX). Filing also includes several other active ETFs.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/0001741773…
