Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Not all plans allow "in-service rollovers". I see that you are at RMD+ age and still working.
If your company does, then yes, you can roll into T-IRA and invest in anything.
You may hear about the controversial wipeout of $17 billion CS AT1/CoCo bonds.
These (AT1) bonds are contingent-convertible (CoCo) bonds common in Europe and Asia. In good times, these convert into equity. But in bad times, forced conversion can be…
Powell could do +25 bps with future guidance for pause or slowing pace. The CME FedWatch is showing +25 bps--hold--cut--cut....for the next few FOMC meetings.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Twitter has been speculating big news ahead of US futures opening this evening - in about 10 min.
So, we got BIG news from Europe on UBS taking over CS.
NO big news in the US except rumors (including Buffett). We only have 2 releases TODAY by the …
I am watching both bank KBE and regional bank KRE. But their Covid 2020 lows are still -42% down from here. So, the banking selloff has been sharp but it doesn't seem to be a washout. I may not wait for -42% down, but it seems too early to bottom fi…
@LewisBraham, when Dutch giant ING got into trouble during the GFC 2008-09 and had to be rescued by the Dutch government, one condition was to refocus on core businesses. It ended up divesting its US operations (noncore):
ING insurance and asset ma…
Lot of Schwab Bank deposits are from Schwab Robo-Advisors that keep high % allocation in cash but robo-holders don't control those bank deposits directly. Schwab was also fined on this but it continues this practice with just a tweak in its disclosu…
@sma3, check this thread out, https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/34619/thread
Schwab clients pull 8.8 B from prime funds in three days
(YBB)
OK, so lot of money shifted internally from Schwab Prime m-mkt funds (subject to gates and/or…
@sma3, see this post https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/929/thread
Edit/Add: I posted it on MFO too, https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60658/m-portfolio-will-be-around-through-2023#latest
PB-Big Bang Post https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/34631/thread
This may be the next step after M* Discussions went private.
I can access the Charts on login, but I get the same message without login ("Invalid Security"). I also see a…
"And a question for Yogi, who is on the list of "two dozen" banks who would have negative equity if all their bond portfolios were marked to market?"
@Jim0445, I haven't seen a specific list but that is from Twitter speculations based on full mark-…
Another tidbit,
Mary ERDOES, JPM. RISK management in banking is essential. 3 recent bank failures (Silvergate, SVB, Signature) were partly from weaknesses in risk controls. The banking system as a whole is in much better shape now than during the G…
@sma3, SVB Financial was the holding company for the SVB Bank. So, this is the bankruptcy filing the holding company that also had some minor brokerage and asset management businesses.
SVB Bank was taken over by the Feds/FDIC. The government-run SV…
Check free-riding violations. Brokers don't like trading that involves unsettled funds because that means that clients are getting a "free-ride" using brokers' money.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/freeriding.asp
https://www.fidelity.com/learn…
@sma3, I learned a lot about the so-called state insurance then!
First, our money was tied up for 5-6 years, not months. Rates offered were below high m-mkt rates at the time. So, only opportunity lost, not nominal money.
I called our state insura…
I was tempted to bottom fish in regional bank KRE. BUT its Covid 2020 low is STILL -44% down from here, and there is hardly any support between here and there. So, just watching for now.
@MikeM, bond volatility indexes are not SD-based. But the info may be similar to short-period-SDs, BBW(20,2), etc.
Even the VIX-like stock indexes are not directly SD-based, but options-based.
@catch22, MOVE is not only a blend but it is normalized, so it doesn't have a direct meaning as VIX.
But we can look at past values and ranges.
All-time high 264.60 (GFC, 2008), all-time low 36.62 (Covid, 2020).
Covid 2020 range 36.62-163.70.
No…
Toyota is sticking with hybrids first, the EVs second. Some say it's foolish, others say that it works for Toyota.
Europeans are making good progress in the EVs; China too and it may be ahead in batteries. In the US, Tesla dominates.
This will eventually replace batch ACH transfers. The rollout of FedNow may be gradual but my guess is that banks will notify clients when it becomes available.
Insurance companies have the SAME HTM & AFS accounting issues. But runs in them are more difficult, but possible - years ago, MBL of NJ in our 403b plan did have a run and collapsed in days. Our money was locked in at lower rates for several yea…
In the aftermath of 3 US bank failures in 4 days, there is now lot of money shifting from small local and regional banks to BIG banks. One consequence of this is that small/regional banks are forced to offer higher rates for brokered CDs. Just in ca…
Momentum funds (OEFs, ETFs) mostly deal with stocks.
Managed-futures funds are into various markets - stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies.
In theory, there is a trend somewhere, up or down.
But the reality is that managers can be (i) wrong on…
Technically, the unlimited deposit coverage seemingly applies only to the 2 failed banks that are government-run. Ironically, SVB Bank is now advertising that it has the strongest deposit coverage in the US, so that the deposits that fled may return…
I doubt that you are getting paid for "float".
Basically, your funds are reserved (or blocked) until the settlement. Many CDs are subscribed quickly, so this reserving/blocking ensures that your order will stick.
Count this as friction for buying …
RIP, Steve Leuthold (85), Founder of the Leuthold Group, based in Minneapolis, MN.
Group's Funds LCORX (also ETF cousin LCR), GLBLX, GRZZX.
https://advisors.leutholdgroup.com/research/special-reports/2023/03/13/in-memoriam-steve-leuthold.24112
htt…
Bond market volatility since last week has been VERY high - first, Powell's talks, then, 3 bank failures in 4 days, and then, the rescue package. MOVE was 173.59 today. Even the 3-mo T-Bills had noticeable rate changes from the market open to their …
@sma3, unclear how one drags SIPC into a bank rescue.
Banks are the domain of the Treasury, Fed, FDIC, OCC, States. These are all government agencies/entities.
SIPC that insures brokerages is an industry-owned nonprofit, although federally charte…
Yes, one could LOSE money by selling T-Bills/Notes or CDs before MATURITY. But Treasuries being very liquid, loss may be minor (rate dependent only), but for brokered CDs without much secondary market, the haircut may be big (like a buzz-cut?).
Bot…
Retail-prime SWVXX may have gates or redemption fees without much notice. That may be a problem for check writing and other essential payments. SNSXX is a government/Treasury money-market fund with much lower probability for that.
The SIPC coverage is for account securities up to $500K (stocks, bonds, T-Bills, brokered CDs, m-mkt funds, etc) that can include brokerage cash up to $250K.
It looks to me that the brokerage cash coverage would vary as it can be crowded out by se…
The rate on the BTFP 1-yr collateralized loans (for PAR value, NOT current value) is "1-yr overnight swap rate + 10 bps". The sweetener is not the rate, but that banks can get PAR value for their underwater securities, but after 1 year, those underw…
Additional "backing" comes from the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) that has been used in past crisis and/or dollar-interventions.
One interesting aspect of the new BTFP facility seems that banks can use securities as collateral and get advances …
