Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Those hot SCG funds are for YTD (really, StockCharts 11/1/23-). But ANYTHING that beats SP500 these days attracts attention, especially SCG. Not all are recognized by StockCharts, but they are by MFO Premium.
https://i.ibb.co/L1yX6J0/Hot-SCG-YTD.png…
Listed asset managers AB, AMG, BEN, BLK, FHI, IVZ, SCHW (mainly, a broker), TROW.
Fidelity is private and Abigail Johnson is a major owner. Other owners are Fido employees and trusts.
@msf is correct, there are TIAA VAs as well as CREF VAs.
The VAs don't trade and there are no standard tickers for VAs. But referring to them by some tickers is convenient. Unfortunately, Lipper has its own tickers, MFO Premium has its own (slightl…
You may know that VAs are covered by MFO Premium and the new TestFol (Morningstar used to cover them too, but now that is now part of M* professional products). My particular focus has been on TIAA VAs, but others are covered too (including from Fid…
Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
"Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.
The Losers Became Winners...
Regional Banks $KRE: +4.…
Having tried Treasury auto-rolls at both Fido and Schwab, IMO, Fido does it better.
Fido coordinates it with maturing Treasury & roll occurs on the same says as maturing Treasury. Auto roll can be canceled online once triggered but before the n…
TestFol Help now has links for "Report a Bug" (Google Doc form) and "Contact Us" ([email protected]). These have been quite responsive so far.
https://testfol.io/help
@davidrmoran, I tried PV for 10 years, and the results were closer to your results. I double-checked TestFol and its numbers are the same as before.
It looks that TestFol has some error in the data for XLG and its numbers for XLG are consistently l…
I compared SP50/XLG, SP100/OEF, SP500/IVV. All 3 had comparable SDs, but,
performance-wise, XLG < OEF < IVV.
I didn't expect that despite their ERs of 20 bps, 20bps, 3 bps, respectively.
TestFol XLG OEF IVV MAX
Edit/Add. Performance for oth…
I redid 2024/YTD/Daily View this AM and they are back to the high levels.
So, @jptak's explanation makes sense that yesterday's data were snapshots from the times that all of the daily data didn't report. And if so, someone can monitor these number…
It seems that number of funds have gone down significantly for all 9-box categories.
2023
1,200 1,430 1,217
553 420 397
597 615 489
2024/YTD/Daily View
603 705 610
277 201 211
298 298 251
These correspond to:
…
M* was going to make changes to its 9-box styles in August without much fanfare. But this is only early-July. I will check if M* jumped the gun.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62403/m-equity-style-box-changes-august-2024#lates…
It's good to raise the issue of alarming growth in the US debt. But CAGR isn't the proper tool for it. As mentioned, 20-yr T-Bond bought today will have the CAGR of 4.57% if held to maturity.
Of course, the real-returns and the returns on bond fund…
Yet it is legal and acceptable for banks to carry CREs at their book values, i.e. the CREs don't have to be marked-to-market promptly. That was one of the issues that shook up the regional banks in early-2023. There are other problems too - e.g. HTM…
Future CAGR for 20-yr T-Bond is 4.57%. But the future inflation is unknown, so it may be good or bad.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=…
Central banks have been buying gold for their reserves more heavily since after the GFC. It may be a small % of their reserves, but that % is rising. Twitter LINK
Twitter LINK2
If I have decided to sell, I may put a trailing stop.
But, in general, putting and keeping stop-losses are risky. Anyone remember those flash-crashes that were happening frequently? Then they went away without explanation, just as they appeared out…
Some explanations for the chart:
There is 50-yr worth of data color coded for 5 decades.
The solid line is the best-fit line. So, it says, for example, that if the initial yield was 5% (read on the horizontal axis), the approximate TR in 5-year fo…
In the ratio chart of VUG:VTV,
up-trend = growth outperforming, 01/2023-now
down-trend = growth underperforming, 11/2021-01/2023
flat-trend = both performing in-line; not seen for long as the two are opposites
See longer 5 yrs at StockCharts (can…
@Devo, my options for ImgBB in Chrome are a bit different:
Links (non-code links)
Viewer Link - this is the shortened link.
Direct Link - this is the full image URL for the MFO Image tool. It's fine for linking too.
HTML Codes
...
BBCodes
...
I …
@Devo, that shortened link is fine as a link.
But it won't work in the MFO Image tool to post the image here , only the full image-url would work (I am not doing this intentionally).
https://i.ibb.co/7rGbHRJ/Screenshot-2024-07-03-at-5-13-29-PM.png
…
@sma3, M* Investors has X-ray.
Here are 2 pages of screenshots for a Test portfolio of 50-50 ARTKX, ARTGX.
https://i.ibb.co/xJJx6CP/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot1-2024-07-03-15-45-41.png
https://i.ibb.co/ChrCMF8/ARTKX-ARTGX-Screenshot2-2024-07-03-15-46-04…
Good items in MFO July 2024 issue.
My Notes.
Re @David_Snowball
Fund family ratings are provided by MFO, Morningstar, Barron’s, et. These typically are based on asset-weighted performance of funds within the fund family. Morningstar has Parent Hub…
A huge problem during the GFC was the CDS (credit default swaps) sold by insurance companies and institutions. When the underlying credits collapsed, the CDS skyrocketed. At its worst, AIG had a liability of $150-200 billion - it was literally bankr…
Unfortunately, once a high balance is captured by the credit agencies, that high balance and the corresponding high credit utilization will stick for years. A quick or early payoff may not reverse that.
Whenever breaches happen, the news comes out slowly.
Unclear if this breach for Evolve Bank is from the Fed data. I also found a good open source - BNN.
https://x.com/mikulaja/status/1805913148660084932
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/evolve-bank-trust-…
I do own PIMIX, PYLD and some Pimco CEFs.
I don't fully understand Pimco's black-box, but based on its existence and superior record for YEARS, I make an exception.
But I don't make such exceptions lightly. In general, I stay away from funds that…
PYLD uses derivatives that can be long or short. Pimco relies heavily on derivatives for most of its funds. Often, M* is confused, so are many investors. But results may be what matter. One can avoid Pimco black-box by simply avoiding its funds, but…
M* staff's has promised to keep the old M* Portfolio until the new M* Investor matches its capability. So, that has meant yearly extensions for M* Portfolio so far.
M* is dumping its TAMP business for RIAs. There goes its reach for financial advisors.
It will stick to its own knitting - rating stuff (funds, stocks, bonds), making lots of money from its advise-platforms, managing assets in-house. Oh, and that…
S&P MC 400 also had a rebalancing last week, but that is too soon to be reflected in XMHQ.
But MFO Premium is showing significant redemptions in late-May (M* data under Performance isn't updated). So, that may explain its large distribution.
SSGA is showing new weights for MSFT, NVDA, AAPL this morning. Other sites may not have updated.
https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/the-technology-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlk
Fed fund rate has been 5.25-5.50% since July 2023. But expectations of Fed actions have changed.
The 3-mo T-Bill yields peaked at 5.348% in October 2023, and have recently dropped to 5.215%. M-mkt funds track 3-mo T-bills closely, with most of th…
Capital Group/American Funds is the class champion. It has up to 19 OEF classes - load, no-load (529, taxable, Retirement), and now has several ETFs. It has funds for many price points.
I have had some lowest ER R6 classes in 403b.
You can check 2-yr EOD at StockCharts & at Treasury.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST2Y&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64547483100
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=d…
