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Anytime I'm alive feels good to me. I can listen to the Ramones on golden oldies shows. :)
IIRC the low value of the S&P was due to inflation. By August of 1982 the inflation rate had dropped from around 8.4 in January to 5.9 in August. So the…
IIRC, the PE ratio back in 1982 was in the single digits. That's what I call real capitulation. It's Just my WAG that current valuations are twice that after all the recent activity. I don't think that's where great bull markets typically start.
I …
I'm looking for tips on how to invest during a trade war. This isn't your average cyclical market bummer, or a black swan like COVID.
I'm not saying it's different this time. But I wasn't around for Smoot-Hawley, the McKinley Tariff, or The Tariff …
Stuck my head out, saw my shadow, and ducked back into my burrow.
Aside from previous comments
Reuters reports:
U.S. Treasuries extended a sharp retreat on Tuesday as investors were having to sell bonds to cover losses in other assets and scramb…
Buffet was clear enough several weeks ago when his comments were among those that convinced me to cash out. Compared to the stuff a lot of people were putting out, he was setting his hair on fire when he compared the coming tariffs to a declaration …
Even M* is getting "political." Above the fold this AM is the screamer: Tariffs Are a Self-Inflicted Economic Catastrophe, subhead: Risks of recession have just gone up, while the standard of living could go down. Dinky linky.
And to make up for th…
Thank you Charles. Looking forward to running all of my favorite screens, and maybe some new ones, after March is uploaded. It has been an E ticket ride since COVID.
So now we get into too much money chasing too few goods available from domestic supply; and that's inflationary.
Or they can suck it up and pay the higher price for foreign screws; and that is inflationary.
There's more to the story than screws:…
A lot of things can flip if tariffs are suddenly removed, but cash is king for now.
I wonder how many people in the D.C. area code are making that bet.
I no longer own GRID in the IRA. But I do keep an eye out for opportunities to add to it in the taxable.
At the risk of bringing up another great financial issue that shouldn't be discussed on an investing forum, I think it's worth noting that the …
I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
It's just not polite to talk…
"Smoot-Hawley tariff"
I wonder if FD or his champions have any idea what that even is.
In the good old days lots of people thought that tariffs were tools of crony capitalism. But that's just politics, right?
My mother's father thought the busines…
I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
It's just not polite to talk…
I think it's great that people think that launching the largest trade war since the Smoot-Hawley tariff will have no significant impact on world equity and bond markets, much less the bank accounts of John and Jane Doe.
Just politics as usual. Noth…
TCAL holding here: https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/etfs/capital-appreciation-premium-income-etf.html#primary-holdings
Reads like it will be competing with DIVO. Something to watch.
Yeah, I'm too old to stockpile gold, ammo, and freeze-dried food. :)
I put some money in BUBIX. Other options I'm considering are FCNVX, ICSH, SGOV, and so on. Higher rated bonds, short durations, low prices, and for the ETF's large AUM.
Turns out my wife got a raise for delaying benefits (past full retirement?), and then for payroll deductions for 2024. I'm having to guess because the letter isn't entirely clear.
As granddad used to say: "Don't marry for money, but don't let it st…
They're following the advice of the anodyne analysts: Stick to the plan. Market timing is bad. Politics shmolitics, they're always yapping in DC. No sign of recession here. Temporary volatility. Buy the dip.
I don't care whether there is a recession, or not. My concern is the health of my IRA. And there's lots of information out there telling me it doesn't need to be fully invested yet. Dinky linky.
The market's main issues as stocks declined? Growing u…
Thank you @yogibearbull. I won't ask my wife to go through the phone experience. It's not that much money--so far.
@BaluBalu. Your suggestion seems appropriate in our circumstances. I'm hoping we don't end up with the sort of problem @WhollyTerrier…
Thanks @Ben. Not trying to keep the money from SSA if this is a mistake. Just want to make sure we don't blow it on something crazy like a night in the honeymoon suite of the Empress Hotel in Victoria BC. :)
It's interesting to me that the anodyne analysts never bother to examine the effects of previous tariffs on markets.
Here is one example from Trump's favorite president: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/03/03/trade-wars-come-wit…
however, does anyone doubt that on a whim, trump can press for any\all below and surely the markets will recover in the short-run :
- cancel tariffs, declare victory
- w/gop majorities, get more biz tax cuts
- cajole for rate cuts and other easing
…
